Roundtable and predictions: UK-Louisville
Reid Travis (UK Athletics)
Justin Rowland • CatsIllustrated.com
@RowlandRIVALS
It's not exactly a quick turnaround but with the holiday season taking up the time since Kentucky's last game against North Carolina, the UK-UofL game has snuck up on us.
Cats Illustrated staff members discuss UK and Louisville, sharing keys and making predictions.
1. What are the reasons UK fans should feel confident going into Saturday's game?
Travis Graf, Special Contributor: The confidence level should be relatively high just because of the star power on both teams. Kentucky has a huge advantage in that department, having blue chip players across the board. Jordan Nwora has shown the ability to be an elite scorer, but outside of him there’s not a player on their roster who can create their own shot. Kentucky’s biggest advantage will be in the paint, where Louisville doesn’t have anyone to really match up with Travis and Washington. Malik Williams is more of a stretch 4 that doesn’t do well when he has to bang down low, Steven Enoch tends to disappear in the Cards’ biggest matchups and Dwayne Sutton is a little under-sized at the power forward spot. The Cats should own the glass.
Jeff Drummond, Managing Editor: Kentucky has strung together five solid games in a row and continues to show improvement each time it takes the court. A win over North Carolina has gone a long way toward repairing the psyche of the fan base, which had been reeling since the devastating Duke loss in the season opener. Big Blue Nation now believes there's an opportunity for these Cats to work themselves back to the level of play we saw this summer in the Bahamas. UK also has some matchup advantages in this game, especially with Reid Travis in the low post and P.J. Washington at the 4. If those two guys can stay out of foul trouble, they could have huge games.
David Sisk, Staff Writer: Kentucky fans should feel confident because this team is coming off its two best outings of the season, and the North Carolina game last Saturday was absolutely the best this team has played all season long. Kentucky was the best team on the floor and won every statistical category except the turnover battle in which both teams had 18. Everything the fans wanted to see in that game happened. They pushed the ball, they defended, and the big four of Keldon Johnson, P.J. Washington, Reid Travis, and Tyler Herro proved they can be go-to guys. Ashton Hagans also set the tone on both ends. Also, don't forget that the Big Blue has dominated this series in the past few years.
2. Why might UK fans feel uneasy?
Graf: The most concerning thing for the Cats is the fact that they are 2-6 in their first true road games under Calipari. Couple that with the fact that Kentucky never seems to shoot well at the Yum Center and it could be a recipe for disaster come Saturday. Louisville has the ability to get hot from three and the Cats have to limit their open looks. The Yum Center crowd is going to be loud early on Saturday and Kentucky’s young guards have to stay level-headed. This also goes for Washington and Travis, who must stay out of foul trouble in order for Kentucky to capitalize on it’s biggest mismatch.
Drummond: For starters, I would be a bit concerned with the Cats coming off a big win in another rivalry game. They had an edge about them against the Tar Heels. Will they lose some of that now thinking they have fixed all their previous issues? Also, this will be the first time that many of these players have faced a truly hostile crowd in their college careers. The freshmen are in for a rude awakening as the Yum Center will be raucous. How will they handle atmosphere and some of the pitfalls that come along with it?
Drummond: On paper I think Kentucky has a nice advantage here. The intangibles just make it tougher to call. It's a road game, as others have mentioned, and the start of a new era at Louisville could give the Cards a temporary jolt out of their slumber in this series. It seems like in recent years Louisville had gotten to the point where they didn't expect to beat Kentucky and that could be different now.
Sisk: Louisville fans have felt good about the season so far. It was expected the team would be down after the abrupt departure of Rick Pitino, but they have recovered nicely under the leadership of Chris Mack. They have already defeated Michigan State and Seton Hall, the team that took down the Cats in overtime two weeks ago.
3. What's your prediction for the game's outcome and Kentucky's MVP?
Graf: Kentucky 75 Louisville 68. Louisville doesn’t have anyone that matches up well with Reid Travis and he picks up where he left off against UNC with another 20 point performance.
Drummond: Kentucky 79, Louisville 75. I've gone back and forth on this one a lot this week. Initially, I was going to pick the Cards, based on nothing more than a hunch. But I reversed course after diving into the personnel and matchups a little deeper. This will be a difficult game, but the Cats should prevail. Reid Travis is my MVP with double-double and perhaps his new UK career scoring high.
Sisk: Louisville has played five high major teams this season: Tennessee, Marquette, Michigan State, Seton Hall, and Indiana. They are 2-3 in those games. Let's look at the numbers in those games.
The Cards trail in almost every statistical category. Louisville has shot 40.7 percent from the field while giving up a very high 46.1 percent. They have been outrebounded by 5. They have given up 7 more foul shots than they have taken. They have been outscored in the paint by 60. Opponents have had 7 more assists, and Louisville has had 6 more turnovers. The only advantage they have had is they shoot 2.2 percent better from 3-point territory.
This one will be up to how well Kentucky plays. They have lots of advantages. I look for Kentucky's two big men of Travis and Washington to do major damage inside. I also think they can pile up big rebounding numbers. In other words, I think the Cats can play to their strengths. I also believe that Hagans can get the ball in transition which is not a part of the game this Louisville team will be comfortable with. On the other side of the ball, the Cardinals have only averaged 10.6 assists per game in these five big matchups. There will be a lot of one-on-one. Here is the problem for them. They have one go to guy who can create game in and game out. Jordan Nwora averages 17.5 points. He is the only one in double figures. They have seven others who average between 6 and 10 points per game. If Louisville wins it will be because they had a bunch of players score by committee. I look for more of what we saw from Kentucky last week. They will pound the Cardinals inside by putting up points, controlling the boards, and getting to the foul line.
Kentucky 83 Louisville 74
Reid Travis (UK Athletics)
Justin Rowland • CatsIllustrated.com
@RowlandRIVALS
It's not exactly a quick turnaround but with the holiday season taking up the time since Kentucky's last game against North Carolina, the UK-UofL game has snuck up on us.
Cats Illustrated staff members discuss UK and Louisville, sharing keys and making predictions.
1. What are the reasons UK fans should feel confident going into Saturday's game?
Travis Graf, Special Contributor: The confidence level should be relatively high just because of the star power on both teams. Kentucky has a huge advantage in that department, having blue chip players across the board. Jordan Nwora has shown the ability to be an elite scorer, but outside of him there’s not a player on their roster who can create their own shot. Kentucky’s biggest advantage will be in the paint, where Louisville doesn’t have anyone to really match up with Travis and Washington. Malik Williams is more of a stretch 4 that doesn’t do well when he has to bang down low, Steven Enoch tends to disappear in the Cards’ biggest matchups and Dwayne Sutton is a little under-sized at the power forward spot. The Cats should own the glass.
Jeff Drummond, Managing Editor: Kentucky has strung together five solid games in a row and continues to show improvement each time it takes the court. A win over North Carolina has gone a long way toward repairing the psyche of the fan base, which had been reeling since the devastating Duke loss in the season opener. Big Blue Nation now believes there's an opportunity for these Cats to work themselves back to the level of play we saw this summer in the Bahamas. UK also has some matchup advantages in this game, especially with Reid Travis in the low post and P.J. Washington at the 4. If those two guys can stay out of foul trouble, they could have huge games.
David Sisk, Staff Writer: Kentucky fans should feel confident because this team is coming off its two best outings of the season, and the North Carolina game last Saturday was absolutely the best this team has played all season long. Kentucky was the best team on the floor and won every statistical category except the turnover battle in which both teams had 18. Everything the fans wanted to see in that game happened. They pushed the ball, they defended, and the big four of Keldon Johnson, P.J. Washington, Reid Travis, and Tyler Herro proved they can be go-to guys. Ashton Hagans also set the tone on both ends. Also, don't forget that the Big Blue has dominated this series in the past few years.
2. Why might UK fans feel uneasy?
Graf: The most concerning thing for the Cats is the fact that they are 2-6 in their first true road games under Calipari. Couple that with the fact that Kentucky never seems to shoot well at the Yum Center and it could be a recipe for disaster come Saturday. Louisville has the ability to get hot from three and the Cats have to limit their open looks. The Yum Center crowd is going to be loud early on Saturday and Kentucky’s young guards have to stay level-headed. This also goes for Washington and Travis, who must stay out of foul trouble in order for Kentucky to capitalize on it’s biggest mismatch.
Drummond: For starters, I would be a bit concerned with the Cats coming off a big win in another rivalry game. They had an edge about them against the Tar Heels. Will they lose some of that now thinking they have fixed all their previous issues? Also, this will be the first time that many of these players have faced a truly hostile crowd in their college careers. The freshmen are in for a rude awakening as the Yum Center will be raucous. How will they handle atmosphere and some of the pitfalls that come along with it?
Drummond: On paper I think Kentucky has a nice advantage here. The intangibles just make it tougher to call. It's a road game, as others have mentioned, and the start of a new era at Louisville could give the Cards a temporary jolt out of their slumber in this series. It seems like in recent years Louisville had gotten to the point where they didn't expect to beat Kentucky and that could be different now.
Sisk: Louisville fans have felt good about the season so far. It was expected the team would be down after the abrupt departure of Rick Pitino, but they have recovered nicely under the leadership of Chris Mack. They have already defeated Michigan State and Seton Hall, the team that took down the Cats in overtime two weeks ago.
3. What's your prediction for the game's outcome and Kentucky's MVP?
Graf: Kentucky 75 Louisville 68. Louisville doesn’t have anyone that matches up well with Reid Travis and he picks up where he left off against UNC with another 20 point performance.
Drummond: Kentucky 79, Louisville 75. I've gone back and forth on this one a lot this week. Initially, I was going to pick the Cards, based on nothing more than a hunch. But I reversed course after diving into the personnel and matchups a little deeper. This will be a difficult game, but the Cats should prevail. Reid Travis is my MVP with double-double and perhaps his new UK career scoring high.
Sisk: Louisville has played five high major teams this season: Tennessee, Marquette, Michigan State, Seton Hall, and Indiana. They are 2-3 in those games. Let's look at the numbers in those games.
The Cards trail in almost every statistical category. Louisville has shot 40.7 percent from the field while giving up a very high 46.1 percent. They have been outrebounded by 5. They have given up 7 more foul shots than they have taken. They have been outscored in the paint by 60. Opponents have had 7 more assists, and Louisville has had 6 more turnovers. The only advantage they have had is they shoot 2.2 percent better from 3-point territory.
This one will be up to how well Kentucky plays. They have lots of advantages. I look for Kentucky's two big men of Travis and Washington to do major damage inside. I also think they can pile up big rebounding numbers. In other words, I think the Cats can play to their strengths. I also believe that Hagans can get the ball in transition which is not a part of the game this Louisville team will be comfortable with. On the other side of the ball, the Cardinals have only averaged 10.6 assists per game in these five big matchups. There will be a lot of one-on-one. Here is the problem for them. They have one go to guy who can create game in and game out. Jordan Nwora averages 17.5 points. He is the only one in double figures. They have seven others who average between 6 and 10 points per game. If Louisville wins it will be because they had a bunch of players score by committee. I look for more of what we saw from Kentucky last week. They will pound the Cardinals inside by putting up points, controlling the boards, and getting to the foul line.
Kentucky 83 Louisville 74
