Recruiting basics......and UK's standing in the SEC. (long)

[BlueRaider22]

Whenever I hear people say, "What difference does being ranked #30th in the nation if we are ranked #12th in the SEC?" I try to educate them. Also, when I hear the other end of the spectrum, "Woohoo, we're #30th in the nation, bring on top 10 rankings...." I try to educate them.



First, before we get UK specific, let's talk about recruiting in general.



1. Recruiting is an inexact science. I like to think of it as "likelihood ratios". For example, a 5* recruit is "more likely" to be a good college player than a 2* recruit. A #5 ranked recruiting class is "more likely" to lead to more wins than a #25 ranked class. However, because it’s an inexact science there is a fairly decent degree of error. For example, there is likely a significant difference between the #5 ranked class nationally and the #20 ranked class…..however, there probably isn’t a significant difference between the #15 ranked class and the #20 ranked class.

2. Attrition will happen. Every program goes through this. You will have guys transfer, flunk out, get in legal trouble, get injured, blah, blah, blah. A few players lost can reduce even the greatest class rankings to rubbish.

3. Narrow view vs Open view. Look at all pieces of the puzzle not just any one piece. Some people only look at “offers.” Some only at “stars/rating.” Some only look at “site X” and neglect the others. If you do so, you are missing A TON of information and are setting your viewpoint up for failure. 247 started the “composite ratings” which are genius….which combine ratings from all the major recruiting sites. They did this for a reason. Either examine all of it or understand that you know just a very small piece of the puzzle and will be disappointed far more often than you could be.

4. Positions matter. This should be a no brainer, but a lot of people miss out on this. LSU has top ranked classes every single yr and should compete for championships but they can’t find a QB to save their life…..if they had one they would compete for NC almost every yr. If you recruit a bunch of skill players but have no lines…..ouch. Joker for example……not only had poor ranked classes but the positions he recruited were all over the board. The overall ranking does not reflect just how bad the recruiting job was. Also, let’s say you sign a 6’2” 180# recruit who has been evaluated as a WR…..found to be a recruit who can flat out fly but has hands like stone…..and thus gets a 2* or 3* rating and is poorly recruited. Well, he’s certainly not going to look good on your class ranking…..but what if that recruit becomes a CB or S at the college level…..or balloons up to be a LB?

5. Consistency matters. What if landed the #10 recruiting class this yr, but the previous 3 classes were ranked between #60-80? People would be cheering that we landed a top 10 class and expectations would go through the roof……but is our roster really that good? Nope. If we land 3-4 classes in a row of #25-35 ranked classes, then we have something.

6. Class yr matters. Going back to the scenario in #5 above. Sure, we landed the #10 recruiting class, but when they get on campus they will be freshmen. This is not basketball. The vast majority of the time, it takes years to develop talent in football. So, the biggest impact that the #10 ranked class is going to have will occur in 2-4 yrs from now……not next yr.

7. Coaching matters. – Boise St or Missouri over the 21st century are prime examples. If you can develop talent and find talent that fits what you want to do, you can overachieve your recruiting rankings. For various reasons we still don’t know for sure how well Stoops et al at developing/fitting talent. We can only hope and pray that he does well with this.

8. Fit Matters. – If you recruit a hulking power back to spearhead your spread offense, prepare to be disappointed. If you recruit a running/option QB to run your pro-style offense, prepare to be disappointed. Some recruits may be highly rated but if they don’t fit, it will likely be better off going with a lesser rated guy that does.

Also, since football is so much a team sport, the symbiotic fit of the players around each other is huge. Let’s assume that Landon Young is legit…..and starts at RT. If he doesn’t mesh well with the RG…..or if the RG is horrible or inexperienced…..Young is going to look horrible. People will start to call him a bust even though he’s a freshman….blah, blah, blah, etc.

9. Cracks – Some recruits just fall through the cracks. It’s darn near impossible to evaluate every single HS player in the country in exceptional detail. Some guys like Randall Cobb, just fall through the cracks. This being said, it’s ok for UK to take a guy or two that aren’t highly rated studs……provided that they do well with the rest of the class…..


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Now, onto to UK specifically. Just for the sake of discussion, I’ll use 247’s composite rankings since it is likely a better measure than any one’s site rating solely…….and granted the following information doesn’t take into many of the factors above. It’s a small piece of the puzzle.

Kentucky (2009-2012) 188.55 178.93 183.93 184.53 183.985 (avg)

Above are UK’s overall recruiting class ratings from 2009-2012…..prior to Stoops.



Bama 319.48 319.58 309.07 301.42 312.3875 (avg)
LSU 281.03 299.3 282.35 289.97 288.1625
Miss 275.5 241.12 244.59 280.92 260.5325
Georgia 260.38 273.38 282.44 275.61 272.9525
Auburn 267.37 277.02 277.4 271.16 273.2375
Florida 291.48 267.75 227.97 260.99 262.0325
Tenn 213.57 274.76 285.64 252.02 256.4975
TA&M 267.79 278.25 270.42 239.01 263.8675
Ark 215.94 215.62 221.95 216.85 217.59
USC 223.67 239.46 237.05 213.24 228.355
MSU 212.84 200.03 238 206.67 214.385
UK 194.59 225.45 193.47 204.34 204.4625
Missou 188.16 195.14 217.59 172.83 193.43
Vandy 210.75 183.62 183.15 171.5 187.255

Here are the classes between 2013-2016.



Here is the average over this 4 yr span…..in order.

Bama 312.39
LSU 288.16
Auburn 273.24
Georgia 272.95
TA&M 263.87
Florida 262.03
Ole Miss 260.53
Tenn 256.5
USC 228.36
Ark 217.59
MSU 214.39
UK 204.46
Missou 193.43
Vandy 187.23


The way I see it, I look at the SEC during this 4 yr span in groups of 4. I think that given the inaccuracy of recruiting, I think that a swing of about 10-20 pts is around the measure of error.

Tier 1 - Bama/LSU

Tier 2 – AU, UGA, TA&M, UF, UM, UT

Tier 3 – UA, MSU, UK, USC

Tier 4 – Missou, Vandy

 

[StoopRaid7]

Didn't read any of this but man you must have a lot of time on your hands

 

[WildcatofNati]

Didn't read any of this but man you must have a lot of time on your hands

So must you, whatwith being a Louisville fan, and yet making time to post here. One would think that your own board would keep you busy enough.

 

[docholiday51]

So this year we should be able to beat everyone on our OOC schedule and the 2 tier 4 teams + have a punchers chance against the other 3 tier 3 teams.All of those teams should be bound or limited by the same variables that you point out.

Please don't misunderstand the intent of my post,I appreciate your take and the information but several here seem to think we will be lucky to win 4 or 5 games this season, however based on the numbers you provide we are in a decent position to have a shot at 6 or even 7 wins.

 

[BlueRaider22]

^I think our roster is a 6-7 win type roster now. I think if we had Gran last yr as OC we go to a bowl. If Baker makes a couple catches we go to a bowl last yr. If we had a little more depth we go to a bowl.

But there are so many questions left unanswered.
-who's the QB and how are they going to play?
-has Stoops improved his in-game management?
-will it take a while to adjust to the new offense?
-will the OL take a step fwd?

.....and so on.

Unlike others I don't feel the schedule is immensely harder. I think it's about par for what we usually do. Last yr was a little easier due to all the home games. The rhythm of the schedules the last 2 yrs will be different than this coming yr. The last few yrs there was a excessively large clumps of harder teams. With a youthful, shallow, and young coached team, getting pummeled for a solid month is tough to recover from mentally and physically. This coming yr the tougher teams are more dispersed rather than clumped. This may work well in our favor.

I think we win 6-7 next yr. I think Stoops has better in-game management it still makes a couple poor decisions. I think we still get blown out a time or two. I think we look better overall but still poor at times. I don't think Gran's offense will take too long to get going. I do think improved depth will help us.

 

[docholiday51]

^I think our roster is a 6-7 win type roster now. I think if we had Gran last yr as OC we go to a bowl. If Baker makes a couple catches we go to a bowl last yr. If we had a little more depth we go to a bowl.

But there are so many questions left unanswered.
-who's the QB and how are they going to play?
-has Stoops improved his in-game management?
-will it take a while to adjust to the new offense?
-will the OL take a step fwd?

.....and so on.

Unlike others I don't feel the schedule is immensely harder. I think it's about par for what we usually do. Last yr was a little easier due to all the home games. The rhythm of the schedules the last 2 yrs will be different than this coming yr. The last few yrs there was a excessively large clumps of harder teams. With a youthful, shallow, and young coached team, getting pummeled for a solid month is tough to recover from mentally and physically. This coming yr the tougher teams are more dispersed rather than clumped. This may work well in our favor.

I think we win 6-7 next yr. I think Stoops has better in-game management it still makes a couple poor decisions. I think we still get blown out a time or two. I think we look better overall but still poor at times. I don't think Gran's offense will take too long to get going. I do think improved depth will help us.

It is way early,but how many of the frosh make the 2 deep? How many coming off a redshirt year make the 2 deep?

 

[dyersburgcatfan]

Good analysis, IMO. Of course, there are other important factors as well. Here are a couple that are hard to evaluate with numbers:
1. Growth and maturity rate. Most guys coming out of high school aren't very mature yet and many haven't quit growing ... literally. By the time they are sophomores or juniors, some of them have become considerably taller and some have become much more mature than others. Sometimes a 4* player isn't very mature coming out of HS so, even though talented, just doesn't get it yet and "horses around" too much, doesn't devote the time and emotional effort into being great. Might digress rather than progress...whereas a 3* player might mature quickly and really start putting everything into becoming the best he can be. It is hard to coach up a guy who doesn't have his heart into in, no matter how talented.

2. Leadership. Some people are just leaders and you have to have a few of these on your team. They might not be the top rated talent wise, but they are able to inspire, command, and get the best out of everyone around them. I think of Tim Tebow like this. He was never a great passer, but he seemed to be able to will his whole team to victory. These kinds of players can be a coach's best asset in a game situation. They tend to play above their talent level when the chips are down, they seem to inspire comeback drive when something bad happens on the field, and they are the ones who often help a defense step up when a stop is absolutely needed or who seem to be able, on offense, to get the essential third down run or block or reception when the game is on the line.

 

[Blue Decade]

The OP is an organized, well stated review of points a lot of us have been making since Stoops got here. Rich Brooks had our football program on the rise. Then Joker blew it and got fired. Mark Stoops bet his career he could make it work at Kentucky. Stoops is using the prestige of his name and his and Marrow's connections in Ohio to rebuild our roster. Barnhart updated the facilities and inflated the payroll. Building a football program is never a straight line, Some of our fans are jealous of Louisville for some reason, but they forget about Ron Cooper, John L. Smith, Steve Kragthorpe. Stoops has only been at Kentucky for 3 years. Our 2015 roster included only 9 Stoops signees who weren't still freshmen or sophomores. By 2017, Stoops will coach a roster 100% composed of his own recruits. Stoops only had 2 months to close Kentucky's 2013 recruiting class. I think Stoops' 2013 class was overrated, but 8 of Stoops' 2013 signees were actually recruited by Joker. It's too early to judge Stoops' 2014 class. AJ Stamps and CJ Johnson came in 2014. 2014 signees Dorian Baker, Drew Barker, Mike Edwards, Matt Elam, Juice Johnson, Boom Williams are starting, and I expect Ware and 1-2 others to start in 2016. The 2015 class, which gave us 2015 starters GAA, Baity, Conrad, Westry, was probably underrated. The 2016 class looks like the best recruiting class at Kentucky in a long time, and the early 2017 commits also look very strong. Our fans wrongly judged Stoops' 2015 class mainly on Damien Harris' decision, and they might judge Stoops' 2017 class mainly on Jedrick Wills' decision. But the OP has done a good job explaining many other recruiting issues. The OP commented on fit, where Stoops still faces a challenge. The uptrend in recruiting is encouraging, but every SEC team recruits well. Stoops must mold these new players into a football team that can win more SEC games and become a true SEC competitor. This is where issues discussed in the OP will make the difference.

 

[BlueRaider22]

It is way early,but how many of the frosh make the 2 deep? How many coming off a redshirt year make the 2 deep?

Really hard to say.....guessing maybe 5-6 make the 2-deep but that's a shot in the dark.

The more obvious ones being:
-McKinniss, Kash, Young.....maybe Jackson?

 

[JasonRDunn]

Whenever I hear people say, "What difference does being ranked #30th in the nation if we are ranked #12th in the SEC?" I try to educate them. Also, when I hear the other end of the spectrum, "Woohoo, we're #30th in the nation, bring on top 10 rankings...." I try to educate them.

First, before we get UK specific, let's talk about recruiting in general.

2. Attrition will happen. Every program goes through this. You will have guys transfer, flunk out, get in legal trouble, get injured, blah, blah, blah. A few players lost can reduce even the greatest class rankings to rubbish.

Great post and good data. Thank you for pulling that together. There is a separate side to attrition at this good...i.e., that players will leave that get recruited over and never will play. That doesn't make the "class" better (which I know is what you are really talking about), but it makes the overall team better.

Whether a fan likes it or not, that type of attrition is healthy for the team and should make it better.

 

[docholiday51]

Really hard to say.....guessing maybe 5-6 make the 2-deep but that's a shot in the dark.

The more obvious ones being:
-McKinniss, Kash, Young.....maybe Jackson?

I would think 5 or 6 is ball park,maybe a few more somebody will be # 2 QB.I know a JUCO doesn't fit my initial question but Hoak could be in the mix

 

[NamelessOne]

Great post op

 

[cat888]

The higher rated classes are going to lose more players early to the NFL so hopefully one day our 3 star fourth and fifth year seniors are playing against there 4 and 5 star Freshmen and Sophomores. We seem to be getting enough transfers to deflect a lot of the arttrition..

 

[Brock28]

Good post! I wish more of our fans understood this.

 

[Deeeefense]

All good points. One other point, I have heard that many staffs at least follow or take into consideration the rankings from the services, and offer lists, but according to Coach Marrow, our staff doesn't pay any attention to any of that. I know it sounds like a homer thing to say our staff may be evaluating talent better than most staffs but when you follow a lot of these recruiting stories it does seem like our staff spots many good players before anyone else does and often times the other programs are forced to play "catch up". Does that mean this class may actually be better than it appears? Maybe - we'll know in a couple of years I guess.

 

[BlueRaider22]

Missou's avg from 2013-2016 is 193.43. USC's 228.36. MSU 214.39.

Now, from 2009-2012.
Missou 197.24 218.93 158.11 (small class) 209.81
USC 250.02 213.27 244.12 244.96
MSU 226.44 203.86 192.68 223.71

Their avg:
Missou 196.02 (~guess-timate adjust for the small class in 2011 would be around 205 avg)
USC 238.09
MSU 211.67

-Missou - Since 2009, Missou has a record of 59-32. They went to 3 bowl games. They won the Big12 North once and the SEC East twice.
-USC - 59-32. The went to 6 bowl games. Won the SEC East once....came in 2nd twice.
-MSU - 55-35. 6 bowl games. Finished 2nd in the SEC West once.

Now, absolutely Pinkel, Spurrier, Mullen are all have been much better coaches than Stoops has been in his first 3 yrs.....that's not the point. The point is that these 3 schools (mainly just Missou/MSU....since USC's classes have been signicantly higher) competed well.

 

[Levibooty]

BlueRaider22 That was a very good OP and I appreciate the time and effort you put into it. A lot of very good points were made and without hammering on the point too much you laid out the explanation why it takes several years to turn a completely wrung out program around. Very nice job Sir and very well done.

 

[Greasy Creak Mafia]

All good points made. Specially on Cobb, which seems to be the blue print not just for us here at UK but every program hopes to get a good base potential recruit and coach them up. Cobb wasn't coached up as much as he just became what he could and coaches happened to be there to watch it. Travard Lindly is another example of evaluating talent then playing it. Last year we had a problem letting CJ Conrad play it seemed. He is another great talent that needs to be displayed.

I agree that with Gran coaching last year that we win the Auburn game, maybe Fla. for sure at Vandy and the game we had a three TD lead built up by the D .