Ran my model for the first time today…

[Aike]

Had a little holiday downtime so I did some testing this morning and updated my NCAA Tournament predictive model for 23-24.

Haven’t published yet and may not for a while. Kentucky slides in at 11th going into tonight’s game.

We are in a virtual tie with Duke. Duke is 10th at 2.169. We are at 2.160.

For those who don’t remember, the model predicts number of tournament wins. So this is roughly saying we look like a solid Sweet 16 team so far.

 

[bbncal02]

Had a little holiday downtime so I did some testing this morning and updated my NCAA Tournament predictive model for 23-24.

Haven’t published yet and may not for a while. Kentucky slides in at 11th going into tonight’s game.

We are in a virtual tie with Duke. Duke is 10th at 2.169. We are at 2.160.

For those who don’t remember, the model predicts number of tournament wins. So this is roughly saying we look like a solid Sweet 16 team so far.

Does your model have Purdue at 1?

 

[Aike]

Does your model have Purdue at 1?

No

 

[bbncal02]

No

Then I approve.....lol

 

[$Z71$]

No

Uconn 1?

 

[Lempface]

What's the top 10 right now?

 

[Mike-McD]

Had a little holiday downtime so I did some testing this morning and updated my NCAA Tournament predictive model for 23-24.

Haven’t published yet and may not for a while. Kentucky slides in at 11th going into tonight’s game.

We are in a virtual tie with Duke. Duke is 10th at 2.169. We are at 2.160.

For those who don’t remember, the model predicts number of tournament wins. So this is roughly saying we look like a solid Sweet 16 team so far.

I forgot to check Aike - how did your model hold up last year?

 

[Cowtown Cat]

@Aike is the fvcking man!

 

[bbncal02]

@Aike is the fvcking man!

He is. I just hate when his numbers don't favor UK. lol

 

[Blue Bigfoot]

I tried to run my own model once.

She called the police on me.

 

[Aike]

Take this with a large grain of salt 5 games in…

1. Iowa St
2. Bama
3. Zona
4. BYU
5. Marquette
6. Houston
7. Purdue
8. Colorado St
9. UCONN
10. Duke

 

[Aike]

I forgot to check Aike - how did your model hold up last year?

About as well as it usually does. UCONN was top 4 pretty much all year. It never liked Purdue or Bama as much as a lot of others did.

 

[saxonburgcat]

I tried to run my own model once.

She called the police on me.

I dated a model. At least that is what I called it. She called it stalking.

 

[Blue Bigfoot]

I dated a model. At least that is what I called it. She called it stalking.

Potatoe Po-tat-o. Typical model that is totally inconsiderate of all the long hours and effort it takes to stalk her. You can do better. She doesn't deserve your stalking.

 

[the nail at the foul line]

This game should help UK.

 

[Cowtown Cat]

Not sure about Iowa State. One thing I do know, BYU and the Fighting Mark Pope’s should be a tournament team this year. They’re legit. Btw, I really like models, too. Stalking or otherwise!

 

[gharding07]

Does your model have Purdue at 1?

Should be

 

[gojvc]

Had a little holiday downtime so I did some testing this morning and updated my NCAA Tournament predictive model for 23-24.

Haven’t published yet and may not for a while. Kentucky slides in at 11th going into tonight’s game.

We are in a virtual tie with Duke. Duke is 10th at 2.169. We are at 2.160.

For those who don’t remember, the model predicts number of tournament wins. So this is roughly saying we look like a solid Sweet 16 team so far.

So who did the model predict in last year’s FF?

 

[bbncal02]

Should be

Don't drink that Koolaid. Painter is a TURRRIBLE tourney coach.

 

[gharding07]

Don't drink that Koolaid. Painter is a TURRRIBLE tourney coach.

I'm not but they are no doubt the best team in the country so far. They've beat what, 3 top 12 teams already? Including #1.

 

[bbncal02]

I'm not but they are no doubt the best team in the country so far. They've beat what, 3 top 12 teams already? Including #1.

Yuuup. Country has done this Purdue dance before. I expect it to end the exact same way

 

[Aike]

We moved up from 11th to 10th after last night, but our overall score jumped from 2.16 to 2.68.

Less than 0.25 points currently separate 2nd place from 10th place.

Arizona is now easily number one after the Iowa St. and Bama losses.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

I was gonna say, Marquette had to be in the top5. They looked real good the other night against Purdue.

 

[HagginHall1999]

We moved up from 11th to 10th after last night, but our overall score jumped from 2.16 to 2.68.

Less than 0.25 points currently separate 2nd place from 10th place.

Arizona is now easily number one after the Iowa St. and Bama losses.

Aike, where does your model rank our defense/offense? KP has us really low, in 60's.

I am not familiar with how the models work really...do they weigh specific metrics based off SOS, etc?

 

[Aike]

Aike, where does your model rank our defense/offense? KP has us really low, in 60's.

I am not familiar with how the models work really...do they weigh specific metrics based off SOS, etc?

I don’t split it up by offense/defense. The model does include both offensive and defensive metrics, as well as SOS.

Without getting too deep in the weeds, I could do some math to split it out by offense/defense, but it wouldn’t exactly be clean with the way the current model is set up.

It’s fair to say that offensive stats are driving our success now more then defensive stats, but I do see some positives on the defensive end as well.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

I don’t split it up by offense/defense. The model does include both offensive and defensive metrics, as well as SOS.

Without getting too deep in the weeds, I could do some math to split it out by offense/defense, but it wouldn’t exactly be clean with the way the current model is set up.

It’s fair to say that offensive stats are driving our success now more then defensive stats, but I do see some positives on the defensive end as well.