AZ,GA,NC + any Rust Belt
AZ,GA (and dropping NC) + either PA or WI and MI
Without NC, NV doesn't make a lick of difference. Winning AZ,GA (and even NV) but losing NC makes Trump's job exponentially more difficult.
An interesting scenario where NV becomes meaningful is if Trump wins AZ,GA,NC and can somehow flip NH In that scenario, he doesn't even NEED a Rust Belt state. (he's closing in the polls in NH.) In fact, I can't believe he's going to NM instead of NH. Getting NH is much more likely than NM
The long and short of it is: If you figure that he's getting AZ and GA (and he's looking better there than any of the other swing states, NC becomes the absolute lynchpin. It opens the map up for him, and gives him 3 or 4 more ways to win than Kamala has.
If they call NC early for Kamala (it's one of the first wave of poll closings IIRC), you should probably start preparing for disappointment, or at the very least, a LONG LONG night/week.
It doesn't give me warm and fuzzies that AtlasIntel now has Kamala winning NC. I don't know what they see or know that everyone else doesn't, but they're very accurate.
Edit - I mispoke. If Trump wins NV,AZ,GA (and drops NC) and MI or PA then he wins. sorry.