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Points per game estimates. What say you?
- Thread starter Son_Of_Saul
- Start date
Here are some selected stats (ranked by minutes per game) from 2023-2024 to facilitate those trying to guess here ...
| HT | WT | MINS | PTS | REBS | 3PTA | FG% | 2P% | 3P% | FT% | STL | BLK | AST | TOV | |
| KRIISA | 6'3" | 185 | 33.4 | 11.0 | 2.5 | 6.3 | 0.429 | 0.444 | 0.424 | 0.775 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 4.7 | 2.9 |
| CARR | 6'10" | 220 | 32.5 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.526 | 0.595 | 0.371 | 0.781 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| ALMONOR | 6'7" | 219 | 32.0 | 16.4 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 0.436 | 0.494 | 0.394 | 0.800 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| BREA | 6'6" | 205 | 29.1 | 11.1 | 3.8 | 6.1 | 0.512 | 0.578 | 0.498 | 0.875 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| BUTLER | 6'2" | 205 | 27.5 | 9.3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 0.421 | 0.485 | 0.302 | 0.594 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| ROBINSON | 6'7" | 190 | 26.4 | 14.2 | 2.5 | 6.9 | 0.426 | 0.532 | 0.354 | 0.908 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| OWEH | 6'5" | 215 | 24.9 | 11.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.493 | 0.520 | 0.377 | 0.643 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| WILLIAMS | 6'10" | 265 | 22.9 | 12.2 | 7.8 | 0.1 | 0.517 | 0.519 | 0.333 | 0.655 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.4 |
| GARRISON | 6'11" | 245 | 22.7 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 0.0 | 0.572 | 0.572 | 0.000 | 0.648 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| NOAH | 6'6" | 200 | ||||||||||||
| PERRY | 6'2" | 170 | ||||||||||||
| CHANDLER | 6'4" | 170 | ||||||||||||
| TOTALS | 251.4 | 106.6 | 40.2 | 34.2 |
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Thanks for providing these stats.
Shots per game is a huge component of scoring output. When there's better players around a particular player, that player's shot attempts, and thereby scoring opportunities, declines. Hence why I don't think we see Robinson score more than 12 or 13 a game.
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Robinson - 13
Brea - 12
Carr - 11
Williams - 11
Oweh - 8
Chandler - 7
Kriisa - 6
Butler - 6
Garrison - 5
Almonor - 4
Rest of team - 3
I worked up those stats several weeks ago, am happy to share them and glad you found them interesting, if not useful.
Based on the reporting and expectation that the offense may shoot thirty-five (35) three-pointers per game next year, I developed this comparison of three-point shot attempts per minute between this year's team and next season's team. Three-point percentages are also included. It is interesting to note that Almonor, Robinson and Brea all attempted more three-pointers per minute than Dillingham, who led us this season. Players are ranked in order of three-point attempts:
| MINS | ATT | ATT/MIN | 3PT% | MINS | ATT | ATT/MIN | 3PT% | |||
| REEVES | 1035 | 188 | 0.1816 | 44.7% | ALMONOR | 1025 | 236 | 0.2302 | 39.4% | |
| SHEPPARD | 953 | 144 | 0.1511 | 52.1% | ROBINSON | 871 | 229 | 0.2629 | 35.4% | |
| DILLINGHAM | 745 | 144 | 0.1933 | 44.4% | BREA | 960 | 201 | 0.2094 | 49.8% | |
| WAGNER | 748 | 96 | 0.1283 | 29.2% | KRIISA | 769 | 144 | 0.1873 | 42.4% | |
| EDWARDS | 686 | 85 | 0.1239 | 36.5% | BUTLER | 1020 | 106 | 0.1039 | 30.2% | |
| MITCHELL | 817 | 82 | 0.1004 | 30.5% | CARR | 1140 | 97 | 0.0851 | 37.1% | |
| THIERO | 535 | 22 | 0.0411 | 31.8% | OWEH | 797 | 53 | 0.0665 | 37.7% | |
| IVISIC | 176 | 16 | 0.0909 | 37.5% | WILLIAMS | 820 | 3 | 0.0037 | 33.3% | |
| BRADSHAW | 358 | 14 | 0.0391 | 28.6% | GARRISON | 721 | 0 | 0.0000 | 0.0% | |
| BURKS | 140 | 5 | 0.0357 | 40.0% | CHANDLER | 0.0% | ||||
| HART | 10 | 1 | 0.1000 | 100.0% | PERRY | 0.0% | ||||
| ONYENSO | 448 | 1 | 0.0022 | 0.0% | NOAH | 0.0% |
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| THREE-POINT SHOOTING PERCENTAGES | ||||||
| DNP = DID NOT PLAY | ||||||
| Career | Career | |||||
| 20-21 | 21-22 | 22-23 | 23-24 | Overall | Conference | |
| BREA | 0.355 | 0.423 | 0.370 | 0.498 | 0.434 | 0.461 |
| ALMONOR | DNP | 0.343 | 0.381 | 0.394 | 0.385 | 0.403 |
| KRIISA | 0.368 | 0.336 | 0.366 | 0.424 | 0.368 | 0.376 |
| OWEH | DNP | DNP | 0.250 | 0.377 | 0.368 | 0.211 |
| CARR | 0.286 | 0.405 | 0.311 | 0.371 | 0.344 | 0.350 |
| ROBINSON | 0.286 | 0.326 | 0.343 | 0.354 | 0.343 | 0.317 |
| BUTLER | 0.290 | 0.329 | 0.342 | 0.302 | 0.321 | 0.294 |
| WILLIAMS | 0.00 | 0.500 | 0.267 | 0.333 | 0.308 | 0.333 |
| GARRISON | DNP | DNP | DNP | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| NOAH | ||||||
| PERRY | ||||||
| CHANDLER |
Don't take this as an argument because I don't really disagree. But a counter point would be that with better players around, you get better shot selection and are more efficient. So points could still increase even if number of shots go down. I'm just thinking out loud though.
I think even the 6-7 point range is high for Butler. He is the leader and knows this team is going to shoot a lot of 3s and will be pushing the ball to shooter and some cutters. I see him averaging 4 ppg and 7-8 apg. He knows he is the catalyst on both sides and I don't see him scoring much except when a lane opens a few times per game.
I feel like I am too low on Carr as a stretch 4 can get 3-4 threes a game in this offense, but I don't know where to take the points from.
My uneducated guess
Robinson - 16
Brea - 13
Carr - 9
Oweh - 9
Williams - 8
Kriisa - 7
Chandler - 5
Butler - 4
Garrison - 4
Almonor - 4
Rest of team - 3
81 ppg. They have the offensive firepower, but they are in the SEC which is going to be physical. Most of these guys have not experienced that. Preseason our numbers will be close to 85-88 ppg. Start of SEC will bring that down (73-76 ppg range). We are still everyone's Super Bowl and do not get a favorable conference whistle. Mid to late SEC schedule (10 or so games in) they'll have adapted better and push back towards 80 ppg
I feel like I am too low on Carr as a stretch 4 can get 3-4 threes a game in this offense, but I don't know where to take the points from.
My uneducated guess
Robinson - 16
Brea - 13
Carr - 9
Oweh - 9
Williams - 8
Kriisa - 7
Chandler - 5
Butler - 4
Garrison - 4
Almonor - 4
Rest of team - 3
81 ppg. They have the offensive firepower, but they are in the SEC which is going to be physical. Most of these guys have not experienced that. Preseason our numbers will be close to 85-88 ppg. Start of SEC will bring that down (73-76 ppg range). We are still everyone's Super Bowl and do not get a favorable conference whistle. Mid to late SEC schedule (10 or so games in) they'll have adapted better and push back towards 80 ppg
You are correct about our being everyone's Super Bowl in the SEC. Mark Pope and the team will have a learning curve, finding out the difference between being the hunted, versus the hunter, especially on the road. It makes a helluva difference. Hopefully, all are very fast learners ...
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