No worries. I’ve been incorrect about something far more times than I could possibly count.
Pac 12 officially dead
- Thread starter gamecockcat
- Start date
If we’re talking status quo cable business model, you’re probably accurate. ESPN would actually lose revenue if Louisville were to switch to the SEC, because the state of Kentucky would no longer be in market for the ACC network and ESPN’s subscriber fees would drop. And since the state of Kentucky is already in market for the SEC network, there’s no revenue upside to be gained there. So there’s little reason to think ESPN would push for Louisville to join the SEC in the current situation.
The wild card, however, is that we don’t know how much ESPN and Fox are thinking about the transition from cable to streaming, and how that would change how the networks value individual teams. In a streaming model, tv markets become irrelevant. What’s relevant, is how much a given team can drive individual subscribers.
In that case, I’d suspect that there are enough rabid Louisville basketball fans that might be willing to pay $40 per month for ESPN streaming that it would make Louisville more attractive than say Wake Forest.
In other words, if ESPN starts making decisions with an eye towards streaming, then while Louisville may not be the top choice from the ACC, they certainly wouldn’t be towards the bottom as you’re suggesting.
See now this is the interesting question going forward for universities. Do they want to be whatever it is the CFB and CBB evolve into.
Another question is can they be?
As the two major conferences fill up with big brands, at some point it seems natural that there may be a time when instead of taking in, the club gets full so the bouncers start tossing people out. Pretty girls and VIPs only so to speak.
If you have Texas, Oklahoma, the traditional SEC powers, add Miami, FSU, etc...do you need or want SC, Vandy, UK even?
Does it become a situation where like the PGA Tour, you can lose your card if you don't make so many cuts?
Then, can the conference and/or university pick and choose what sports programs they want to be part of the professional circuit?
Hey tobacco road BB powers, we'll take your basketball programs but your football programs...we're going to bump down to tier 3.
Do all the non rev sports get the boot period? If CFB and CBB break away from "collegiate" athletics into a totally separate entity, are no longer under the rules and laws of taxpayer funded educational institutions...what becomes of women's sports, track, swimming, etc?
The Big Ten and SEC will not just add teams that don't provide realistic value to those conferences.
They discussed exactly this situation on Stadium - Inside Football - with Michael Felder and Josh Perry - and they had a graph that showed the Big Ten will be paying out $80-100 million per team in 2024-2025 while the SEC is right there at $70 million per team. No other conference was remotely close. I believe the ACC was next at $37 million - if they'll even be around in 2 to 3 years - and there's the underlying problem. TV money and huge markets
You know I should of but I am an old man (been with UK since Cotton Nash and Rick Norton) who has only spent a little time over there in metro DC area including the eastern panhandle knowing that all their local tv comes from DC so I would think they would see WVU just like they'd see Maryland, or UVA or Virginia Tech, but obviously I was mistaken.
I think at some point the SEC will try to lock down states so other conferences don’t have any worthwhile footprint. So I could see a Texas Tech and OK St being invited. They provide rivalries and locks out other conferences. That’s why I can see FSU, Clemson, UNC and Va Tech being added from ACC even with UF and USC Jr already in the conference.
Just don't see either the Big Ten or SEC adding teams just to lock other conferences out. Both will evaluate how much fan support and eyeballs they bring in.
The Big Ten pulled in the 4 schools in the PAC with - by far - the most support. I thought that both Stanford and California were next but now I'm reading that they have small stadiums and fan support and don't bring in the eyeballs or even fill their stadiums. Sounds like the Big Ten is done in that conference. Oregon was a slam dunk with the NIKE and Phil Knight money behind them as he was lobbying the Big Ten hard to admit his Ducks. Oregon's sports facilities are 2nd to none and that's all Phil Knight
Same with the SEC. You can bet they'll also examine all of the above criteria before considering a school. They're also in a position of power and if the right situation doesn't come along, they can just stay pat and draw their massive money
I’ve thought about this idea a bit. Like getting relegated in soccer. Would be interesting to see that play out.
Are Florida State fans, players, recruits gonna be excited playing conference games in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, California?!?! Same for Clemson. At least North Carolina and Virginia have a tenuous possible link with former conference foe Maryland in the B1g.
Basketball is a non factor in conference realignment.
There are three, and only three, factors.
1. Money
2. Football
3. More money
Basketball has been less of a factor up to this point. That does not mean it would continue to be a non-factor into the future for two reasons.
The first reason is streaming. The economics of streaming are different than the economics of linear tv. In a world where ESPN is a streaming service, the ability to drive subscriptions is what drives money.
The second is the NCAA tournament. At some point the Big 10 and SEC may decide to go bigger and break away from the NCAA. If that happens, then I’d expect them to institute their own version of March Madness. The three weeks of the NCAA tournament are currently worth $1 billion per year, and I’m sure the power conferences would love to take more control of that. If things progress all the way down that path, then there is value for a conference to consider picking up a school like Duke or UNC.
Folks seem to not understand that while football has been driving things up to this point, that doesn’t mean that basketball has zero value. There’s value to basketball, but it just hasn’t been as high as football. But if you look at things like Nike’s contract with UK, you’ll see that there is real value for basketball at some schools. That value just hasn’t been as relevant in conference realignment decisions up to this point.
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The guy running the Big 12 is betting college basketball will be more important and generate more money in the future. He sold Arizona by promising yearly them & Kansas home & home, ESPN prime time.
I’m not sure I would trust the accuracy of that data source. It says Louisville averaged 4.4 million viewers when they were on ABC.
However, there were a total of 45 regular season games last year that drew at least 4 million viewers and Louisville didn’t play in any of them. Which means there’s no way Louisville averaged 4.4 million viewers on ABC.
I agree with what you are say. That said, there are some good fan bases left in the south east, Miami, UNC, NC State, Clemson, Fla State, Ga Tech, Va Tech for sure. I just do not see the SEC even picking up all of these teams. I could see a combo of 4 of them to get to 20 teams and I do not know if they will want FSU or Clemson due to existing footprint. I know I would not want Louisville in SEC. UNC, Va Tech make sense not sure about whom else. SEC needs to say in the greater Southeast footprint (Maybe up to West Virginia over to Kansas area and down to Ok State and south. Then let Big 20 and Big 12 plus 8 take the leftovers and whats left after that become a different division of football. Then each conf plays 10 conf games and 2 other power 5 schools. Have a SEC / Big 10 weekend and an SEC Big 12 Weekend and a Big10 Big 12 weekend. That would give all teams 12 games. Then Top 4 teams from each conference each year are the playoffs. Rest go home, no bowl games. Real Playoffs just like the NFL. Seed teams and higher see gets home games. Easy Peasy.
If you read at the bottom the data is from 2012-2021 which means last year wasn’t included.
Yeah, I missed that. So UL’s ABC average is getting inflated by the 2016 game with Clemson. That game drew monster ratings and I believe is still the highest rated ACC regular season game.
That said, there’s still something off about these numbers. I’m not sure how someone can come to the conclusion that Louisville averages more viewers than Clemson. I suspect the issue might be that UL has played a lot fewer games on ABC and ESPN than Clemson, so you have a couple big games skewing things (they neglected to call out n-sizes for each average). I also imagine UL had a lot more games on ACC network than Clemson, which they also excluded from this.
From 2013 through 2021, there were 74 ACC regular season conference games that drew at least 2 million viewers. Clemson played in 33 of those games, which was the most of any ACC team. Louisville played in only 7 of those games, which ranked them 7th in the ACC.
Contrary to what your analysis is showing, Clemson has consistently had much higher ratings in football than Louisville.
FSU already plays conference games in PA with Pitt in the ACC. They also play in Massachusetts, New York and Indiana.
Thia is the answer.
The situation I'm waiting to see is how Texas fits into the SEC as those arrogant a-holes expect to have everything their own way. They basically destroyed the Big 12 and were the main reason for Nebraska leaving for the Big Ten.
I believe the Big Ten inquired about them in the conference a few years ago and Texas made it clear that they were not giving up their TV network and expected things to go the way they expected. Gonna be interesting to see how the SEC handles their demands
So was told that PAC 12 will expand with Cal and Stanford adding San Diego State and Boise State, plus SMU and Tulane plus other AAC schools left plus Rice.
Interesting development. I don't think that could be considered a P5 conference in any way, shape, or form.
That's about all they could do. Bit surprised if they don't add a NV school - NV or UNLV. Growing fast. Private Tulane & SMU don't make sense to me.
Rice and Tulane are excellent academic schools that attracts Stanford to them. SMU is private and almost to that level. Ask Southern Cal about Tulane football.
SMU has cash. Their boosters offered to pay $200 million to join BiG or ACC and not take a conf check until the new contract. Rich boosters can make things make sense. LOL.
I don't think it has anything to do with who or where they play, it's all about the money. They are afraid, rightly so, that ACC members are not going to be able to compete because of the differences in conference payouts. If the money was right I think they would join mountain west.
True, but that doesn't help improve TV ratings that drive future payouts. If Stanford and others are fine with poor payouts, fine.
Beggars can't be choosers. If Stanford had their way they'd be invited to the Big 10. As it is they have no choice along with the other 3 leftovers to cobble some form of conference together. Then get a TV deal.
100% agree...people are prisoners of the old system...
They couldn’t get a TV deal when they had everyone still there. I don’t see them getting anything more than maybe streaming deal.
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