Easy to question the call to run on second down, but we had averaged as much success on the ground as we had at anything until that point.
One other option 4th and 8
- Thread starter Deeeefense
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Easy to question the call to run on second down, but we had averaged as much success on the ground as we had at anything until that point.
I agree it was a decent option, but in my view the least desirable option. A freshman kicker trying his first college kick against the #1 team with the game on the line may have been too much for any freshman.
To me, we battled the whole game and got the game come down to 1 offensive play. Convert and we were in field goal range for Raynor who was red hot and had hit from 55. It would have been 56/57 yard FG at the first down marker. Convert, and we have 3 more plays to get a closer FG and GA has to use timeouts after each down.
On the other hand, by punting we have to make 3 defensive plays to force a punt and even if successful their punter was booming the ball all night. So best case scenario, with us having only 2 timeouts left at that point is we get the ball back on our 35 with a minute and a half left. We have to move the ball 25 yards just to get back to the GA 40 with no timeouts. We then have to make 4 or 5 offensive plays.
Comparing the scenarios, making 1 offensive verses making 3 defensive plays + 4 or 5 offensive plays seems like the percentages would overwhelmingly counsel taking a shot on 4th and 8.
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I’m not arguing with you buddy. Just pointing out that we should have went for it - in my opinion (supported by ESPN analytics).
Stoops gets paid 9million a year to make these decisions and this one clearly bit him in the ass.
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I don’t give a damn about what you think about analytics. Deeeefense requested a link in regards to the analytics and I gave it to him.
Good lord - take a damn chill pill people.
The better option would have used our first 3 downs in a way that doesn’t put us in 4th and 8.
This stat that keeps being quoted is in a vacuum and doesn’t take into account any of the context. Our offense that had hardly any success in the passing game against a great Georgia defense on 4th and 8. There’s not a 34% chance we convert that. There’s just not. And by the way this 34% stat is to win the game, not just convert. So not only do you have to convert that, but there’s more left to be executed to win the game. I would have been totally cool with going for it, but I’d say the chances in reality are less than 10%.
I mean - I’m just passing along ESPN’s analytics which was tweeted out. It measured punting versus going for it and whether we would win the game.
I’m sure ESPN has a pretty good team of really smart people (or computers) that account for many variables.
Either way - Stoops should have gone for it. We controlled our own destiny with the offense on the field. Grow a pair and go get 8+ yards.
Edit: Punting = 0% chance of getting a first down.
Going for it we at least have a better than 0% chance at getting the first down.
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I had more confidence in 4th and 8 than I did going 75 yards regardless of the time left. Of course we only had 9 seconds left and no timeout. All it took was one 1st down and the game was over. I knew we wouldn't stop them when it mattered. We should have ran it on 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and then possibly even 4th down. It likely would have been more like 4th and 2 or 3 with how we were running the ball. Might have even got the first down before 4th down. We always try and get cute and change things up when something is working.
Kirby had no intention of scoring to. He just wanted to burn clock. So the further away, the more field they had to work with to keep the clock moving. We'd have been better off giving them as short of a field as possible to make it harder to move the ball and maybe forcing them into a scoring opportunity with more time left for us. Kind of like when Mumme let that team score quick to get the offense back out there since he knew they would have burned clock on our pitiful defense.
What this is saying is, UK goes for it on 4th and 8 they have a better than 1 in 3 shot at winning the game. Not just converting the 4th down (which believe me is much less than a 1 in 3 shot), but going on to make more plays to win the game as well. Just use some common sense and you’ll recognize that these “analytics” are nonsense. I’ve also only seen a tweet from a UK fan page citing ESPNs analytics on this but no source material where that came from at all. I’d like to see it if it exists. I’d also like to see what’s being factored in.
Going for it there would have been five with me. Play to win the game. But these analytics I assure you are nonsense.
Or line up with the QB under center like you are trying to draw them off sides, try several hard counts and with 2 seconds left let the QB stand up and start walking down the line toward the UK sideline like it didn't work. While he is in "motion" snap the ball to the RB and hopefully you have caught the defense off guard thinking we are just going to take a delay of game penalty. I mean there are lots of options besides punt.
My bigger issue is we had been running the ball down their throats the whole game and then with the game on the line we go 2 straight passes in 4 down territory when we were 14-27 for 114 yards passing the ball. Just line it up and keep doing what had been working. Too many times Bush has tried to get too cute with some of the play calls.
I'm not a coach that is paid top 10 money but I knew exactly what was going to happen as did pretty much everyone on this forum and in the stands. On the game thread, someone said "They're going to run play action for a first down" and boom, that's exactly what happened.
I knew they weren't going to get the ball back with enough time to do anything. Certainly hadnt moved the ball enough to trust that the offense was going to go 60-70 yards to win the game. Going for it was the best chance and not a single fan on here would've been upset if they had gone for it and failed. It was the only chance at winning and Stoops gave it away.
I knew they weren't going to get the ball back with enough time to do anything. Certainly hadnt moved the ball enough to trust that the offense was going to go 60-70 yards to win the game. Going for it was the best chance and not a single fan on here would've been upset if they had gone for it and failed. It was the only chance at winning and Stoops gave it away.
No excuse to not go for it not only points to stoops ineptness but shows his true approach to the game play not to lose you have the greatest chance to do something nobody has done in 4 years and you punt the damn ball no nuts stoops man the craziness that's going over there is absolutely mind boggling
Is it more likely to pick up a 4th and 8, or kick from what would have been the 4th longest FG distance in college football history?
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"I've still got Kauwe "ready in the bullpen" for a special situation of 60+ Have faith in him" Marc Stoops stated in his call in show yesterday Sep 16th. Just sayin
Folks will debate that until the end of time and there are arguments on all of them. For my money, if what they say about Kauwe is true if I were coach I would give him a shot. If he misses you still have a chance to stop UGA and get the ball back, obviusely a difference in field position from the punt but that would be my first choice. Between punting and converting a 4th and 8 I would have punting, not saying going is worse but when I think of going for it all I see is a sea of red swarming over BV.
The reason I prefer the FG attempt is it's just one event, with the other choices you have multiple events any one of which could fail. Admittedly the downside of the FG attempt is UGA gets the ball back with at least 2.5 minutes left. In any event the D would be called on to finish the game.
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I don't know if this has been talked about much...but why not go for it?
Don't get it...
Don't get it...
- Worst case scenario, UGA runs out the clock getting a few 1st downs
- Best case scenario, UGA scores quickly and UK gets ball back and it's still a one score game.
- Middle ground scenario, UGA gets a 1st down or two, kicks a FG and it's still a one score game with a minute or so left.
- Worst case, long FG attempt
- Best case, score a freaking TD
- Middle ground scenario, miss a FG attempt or make with a couple mins left
- Best case, you pin deep, they don't gain any yards, and you've got the ball probably 10-20 yards FURTHER from a FG with NO TIMEOUTS left, and the inability to drop back and throw a pass, not to mention their defense will be TEEING OFF on the QB now that they don't have to worry about the run (remember, no TOs left).
1. Only 11 NFL kickers have made FG's beyond 62 yds in games. So, I would take this decision off the board immediately for a Frosh's 1st kick.
So, really it comes down to go for it or punt. Here are my thoughts:
Georgia
Total plays 67
First downs/drive ratio – 11:10
Plays over 8 yds – 10 (the 33 yd pass on the game winning drive was an anomaly)
TOP - 24:58
UK
Total Plays 84
First downs/drive ratio – 22:10
Plays over 8 yds – 14 (the biggest play was a 17 yd rub by BVG on 2nd down of the first drive of the game)
TOP - 35:02
To Punt:
-While it's true that UGA was able to advance the ball better in the 2nd half compared to the 1st, our defense was awesome/consistent throughout.
-The defense were fairly rested. UGA had the ball a total of ~25'....and that includes the last time wasting drive of the game.
-You have 4 TO's.
-If you can pin them deep, the likelihood that UGA will execute a risky play is low. (kudos to Smart for throwing a 33 yd pass)
-If you can use the 4 TO's and force a 3-and-out, you'll likely get the ball with a decent amount of time.....around midfield. Meaning that you only have to get about 20 yds to get in Raynor's range.
-We weren't moving the ball extremely well all game against the #1 team in the country (shocker, I know).....and BVG was throwing at about 50% completion percentage for the day.....on the heels of a crazy embarrassing loss against USC. Not to mention guys like Brown dropping passes.
-If you go for it and don't make it, you're hoping to make a stop and force a punt.......getting the ball pinned deep. If you don't trust your offense to go 8 yds, why would you trust them to go 60 yds in limited time without TO's?
To Go:
-Make it and you're in really good shape to set up a FG. Shoot, you're only about 10-15 yds away.
-We were able to achieve 14 plays greater than 8 yds on the day. Many of these were runs, but still, it's not like you hadn't done it at all that game.
-You may not get another shot.....or, if you do not make it you've got 4 TO's in attempt to get the ball back.
I just don't think it's a clear cut decision. I don't fault Stoops if he decided to go either way. Me personally, I probably would've been more aggressive and gone for it, but I understand that it may not be the smart play.
So, really it comes down to go for it or punt. Here are my thoughts:
Georgia
Total plays 67
First downs/drive ratio – 11:10
Plays over 8 yds – 10 (the 33 yd pass on the game winning drive was an anomaly)
TOP - 24:58
UK
Total Plays 84
First downs/drive ratio – 22:10
Plays over 8 yds – 14 (the biggest play was a 17 yd rub by BVG on 2nd down of the first drive of the game)
TOP - 35:02
To Punt:
-While it's true that UGA was able to advance the ball better in the 2nd half compared to the 1st, our defense was awesome/consistent throughout.
-The defense were fairly rested. UGA had the ball a total of ~25'....and that includes the last time wasting drive of the game.
-You have 4 TO's.
-If you can pin them deep, the likelihood that UGA will execute a risky play is low. (kudos to Smart for throwing a 33 yd pass)
-If you can use the 4 TO's and force a 3-and-out, you'll likely get the ball with a decent amount of time.....around midfield. Meaning that you only have to get about 20 yds to get in Raynor's range.
-We weren't moving the ball extremely well all game against the #1 team in the country (shocker, I know).....and BVG was throwing at about 50% completion percentage for the day.....on the heels of a crazy embarrassing loss against USC. Not to mention guys like Brown dropping passes.
-If you go for it and don't make it, you're hoping to make a stop and force a punt.......getting the ball pinned deep. If you don't trust your offense to go 8 yds, why would you trust them to go 60 yds in limited time without TO's?
To Go:
-Make it and you're in really good shape to set up a FG. Shoot, you're only about 10-15 yds away.
-We were able to achieve 14 plays greater than 8 yds on the day. Many of these were runs, but still, it's not like you hadn't done it at all that game.
-You may not get another shot.....or, if you do not make it you've got 4 TO's in attempt to get the ball back.
I just don't think it's a clear cut decision. I don't fault Stoops if he decided to go either way. Me personally, I probably would've been more aggressive and gone for it, but I understand that it may not be the smart play.
He either has the leg to kick that distance or he doesn’t and apparently he does. Who cares if it’s his first kick. If I am in his shoes I’d prefer my first kick to be one I’m not really expected to make as all the pressure is relieved and you just go out and kick the shit out of the ball. If you make it you’re a hero, if not, no one really expected you to make it to begin with. Nothing to lose which makes the likelihood of him making it even greater.
That's fine. You have a right to an opinion.
....But it's not just distance, it's accuracy. And it's trajectory. And that's assuming that everything goes right with the snap, the hold, and the blocking. While the odds are low no matter what route is chosen, trying to kick a FG likely trails waaaay behind in probability compared to the other options.
Don’t disagree at all was just rebuking the it being his first kick mantra. The obvious play was to keep pounding the run game with DSK and Wilcox and know you most likely have 4 downs to pick up 10 yards there. I didn’t necessarily mind a pass play being called on 2nd and/or 3rd but not drop back in the pocket passes which we have struggled with mightily the last 2 games. A rollout RPO with Brock should have been called instead of a straight pass play. It was pretty straight forward but stoops personnel never seems to make the right decisions when it matters most.
Me neither just discussing the points/counterpoints
I spent a bit of time looking for this on ESPN web site and so far I have found nothing.
Could you post the link to ESPN again where this stat supposedly exists? - I'm not seeing it
Out of respect for all, it's probably fair to say that there were no good choices available and all the available choices were high risk and not likely to succeed once the 4th and 8 situation developed. However people are entitled to their opinions as to which of those they think was best.
The best choice would have not to have been 4th and 8 in the first place. I can't blame Hamdan for that- he called a great play on one of the downs, but, shockingly, the pass protection didn't hold.
D respectfully, rather than a 62 yard kick I would just chuck it to the end zone(hopefully our qb would get time to do that). A lot of things can happen on that play and works out for the O on occasion. If we get 6 there then Ga needs 6 to go back ahead. A fg wouldn't help them.
On those types of plays normally a defense basically defends the line to gain and any throw short of it so you might get a receiver free in man over the top, the problem is I just don't think BV would get enough time to throw.
I understand that take but why not take advantage of BOTH options? What most are missin here is it didnt have to be a One or the Other thing. We could have done both. Think this through . . .
Go ahead and take a shot on 4th down and if we dont get it we're still in the same spot of having the chance to make them go three and out and getting the ball back. The only difference MAY be a longer field to go to get back in field goal range.
Lets say we go for it and dont get it and hold them at midfield. They now have to punt and there's a decent chance we get a touch back and get the ball at the 20. So we have 40 yards to go to get in field goal range.
Well if we had punted it the first time the same applies and they may have started on our 20 and after we hold them they punt it 50 yards t our 30. Thats just 10 yards difference we have to go!!! Is that worth giving up the chance to convert the 4th down???!!! No!!!!
Even if we go for it and dont get it but hold them 3 and out and they punt it inside our 20 to the 10, we only have to go 20 yards farther than the other scenario. Is saving those 20 yards worth forfeiting the chance to go for it at midfield??? No!!!
Thats why you absolutley go for it every time there - because you get BOTH changes not just the one.
Reading this another idea popped into my mind, throw a deep ball to a receiver 30+ yards downfield even if the receiver is getting decent coverage. Four things can happen, the catch and you are set up, an interception, which can turn out to be not much worse than a punt, an interference penalty which also sets you up, or an incompletion which is the worse outcome. And here's what makes this idea interesting IMO, for whatever reason at the college even the pro level, if a team is throwing it on 4th down and a defender has chance to make a play of the ball they will invariable intercept it and wind up with much worse field position than if they had just let the ball hit the turf. It's just instinctual I guess. But anyway that options gives you multiple ways to succeed. The caveat is you could wind up taking a sack or picking up an offensive penalty.
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we had 3 options … on 2 of those if you don’t convert Georgia gets the ball at the same basic position. I don’t necessarily disagree with the decision to punt, but for me it’s a matter of playing to win or playing not to lose. Regardless of the 3 options or their results, Georgia was going to get the ball back somewhere on the field. I don’t know enough about Laros to even speculate, but if the staff thought there was at least some chance, I try to kick the FG. GBB🏈
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