NIL and the disappointing North Carolina State season

[Tskware]

I read this today and tbh, sounds very much like UK's season so far. In short, so far, NIL and transfer portal seem like a total crapshoot, and article asks the same question I have asked since day one: Who is going to "pony up" year in and year out for .500 seasons?


Perils of NIL

 

[truebluewildcat]

The Pack can still end up in a bowl game.

Definitely higher expectations based on last season but that’s modern CFB. Will be a whole lot of that going forward.

Kind of like the NFL in that there is just so much turnover year to year.

Said in a thread about UGA losing to get used to that. I think we’re going to see less 3,4,5+ year runs by the top tier programs. So that definitely applies to programs down the list.

It’s going to be hard not only for UGA to keep title hunting pace, but for rank n file to sustain 8-9 win seasons.

 

[UKWildcats1987]

I read this today and tbh, sounds very much like UK's season so far. In short, so far, NIL and transfer portal seem like a total crapshoot, and article asks the same question I have asked since day one: Who is going to "pony up" year in and year out for .500 seasons?


Perils of NIL

I've been saying this.

I will never tell any of you or especially the Richie riches on how to spend their extra money but whats the ROI?

I work in finance and just can't see the ROI for UK football with NIL. If the spending isn't gonna win a national title or the sec or most likely, not make a playoff...what's the point of the spending?

Counter argument is you have to try to have the slim to none chance outlined above so it's a bit of a lose-lose for fans at a program like UK or even NC State.

 

[truebluewildcat]

I've been saying this.

I will never tell any of you or especially the Richie riches on how to spend their extra money but whats the ROI?

I work in finance and just can't see the ROI for UK football with NIL. If the spending isn't gonna win a national title or the sec or most likely, not make a playoff...what's the point of the spending?

Counter argument is you have to try to have the slim to none chance outlined above so it's a bit of a lose-lose for fans at a program like UK or even NC State.

Yeah this is going to be something to watch going forward. The “ROI” element of everything.

I suspect, the pendulum will swing back. That’s not to say NIL going away, but naturally more rules, regulations.

Of course the money is just going to grow exponentially, so even with a more organized and clear market with structure, programs are going to have money to spend.

 

[gamecockcat]

I've said it in other threads, I believe in the next dozen years (or so) we'll see maybe 32 teams form their own 'conference/league' and it'll be the Wild West - tons of NIL, transfers back and forth, etc. Basically, a minor league NFL. The other P4 schools, and I'm speculating, could reorganize conferences with some semblance of regional sanity - still play good football, still give 85 scholarships but abstain from asking more and more $$ from backers to buy some HS kid or a transfer from another school. Just throwing things against the wall here: UK, UofL, IU, IL, Northwestern, Vandy, WVa, UVa, VaTech, Cincinnati, Missouri, Purdue - that's 12 schools within driving distance of each other. We could play everyone in the conference every year maybe throw in a TN game or other 'OOC' game each year. From the ACC, no way Wake, Cal, Stanford, Syracuse, Pitt, maybe the NC schools are going to get into the NIL wars, imo. Maybe the southern teams include UCF, USF, Ga Tech in their 'conference'. Personally, I'd be OK with that arrangement. I wouldn't pull for UK less, for sure, and I believe we'd stand a much better chance of being consistently competitive vs our 'peers'. I don't believe UK FB will ever be able to keep up NIL-wise with TN, Georgia, AL, AU, TX, OK, UF, LSU. With all the other inherent disadvantages UK has in football, throw in a huge discrepancy in NIL budget and I don't see UK being competitive in the current SEC but once in a blue moon.

Basketball is a whole 'nother thing but NIL will eventually ruin it, also, imo.

 

[Thecycle27]

It is hard to imagine anyone outbidding the brands in football. Plus the recruiting landscape isn’t changing. Kids in the south want to play in the south. The south has more D1 talent.

With that said it is also tied to scheduling. IU is a great example of catching the perfect schedule with a new coach. He flat killed it in the portal in all the right spots. He may not be able to replicate it over time but some years the schedule just breaks right.

A cap is coming but at the end of day NIL will always be around which the brands will be able to support at a higher level than a UK or Louisville.

I think UK football was screwed the day they expanded the conference. It would have been OK if they added 2 teams with similar resources as UK. Adding Texas and Oklahoma with all their resources-football tradition made it impossible. UK basketball will always be a top 5 program but as we have seen others are now investing in basketball making it more challenging.

Louisville on the flip side is in a conference they can financially compete in with both sports. They won’t have better rosters or teams than UK but good enough to challenge in ACC. Plus easier path to playoff. Also easier sell to boosters.

I do think the SEC and Big Ten have created monsters and if they aren’t careful they will eat themselves.

 

[The-Hack]

so it's a bit of a lose-lose for fans at a program like UK or even NC State.

If the Bama’s and UGA’s can’t stockpile players, then I think this is ultimately a benefit to UK.

Our 2021 team was largely built with NIL dollars and transfers, one of only 4 ten win seasons we’ve had.

IU, Vandy and Iowa State are all doing well, though they have never won ten games in a season.

NC State has one ten win season in its history.

But it’s definitely the Wild Wild West, now, and a crap shoot.

 

[BigBlueFanGA]

Yeah this is going to be something to watch going forward. The “ROI” element of everything.

I suspect, the pendulum will swing back. That’s not to say NIL going away, but naturally more rules, regulations.

Of course the money is just going to grow exponentially, so even with a more organized and clear market with structure, programs are going to have money to spend.

I'm not sure what rule or regulation could be put in place that would survive judicial review.

 

[FirewithFire]

We poached off of NCST pretty hard for the last couple of seasons and don't have much to show for it. Maybe they suck as bad as we do at talent evaluation.

That said, it would appear to me that having someone on staff that can accurately evaluate talent is of supreme importance. It's always been like that if you wanted to win the recruiting war, but now you lose millions if the eval is off, so I guess maybe we should cut Stoop's pay by a couple of million and invest in an A+ talent scout.

 

[YardCat]

We poached off of NCST pretty hard for the last couple of seasons and don't have much to show for it. Maybe they suck as bad as we do at talent evaluation.

That said, it would appear to me that having someone on staff that can accurately evaluate talent is of supreme importance. It's always been like that if you wanted to win the recruiting war, but now you loose millions if the eval is off, so I guess maybe we should cut Stoop's pay by a couple of million and invest in an A+ talent scout.

Let’s poach some Good Offensive Line players this year. We have to control the line of scrimmage to allow our QB to make the reads and throw it, not run for his life after 3 seconds.

 

[Tskware]

Let’s poach some Good Offensive Line players this year. We have to control the line of scrimmage to allow our QB to make the reads and throw it, not run for his life after 3 seconds.

Three seconds?? Did you mean 1/3 of a second? That is more like it on most passing plays.

 

[HCCATFAN]

If these players are bargaining like pros, the only solution its a salary cap universal for all conferences. Make them earn it. I am just about done with all of college sports. The NCAA doesn't exist anymore.

 

[CardHack]

Death, Taxes and preseason pronouncements of "this is the Year that NC State and/or Miami are challenging to get to Charlotte" is something unique to the ACC experience since we've gotten into the League. We had no elusions when we were entering the ACC that there was no breaking through the UNC/Duke nature of media coming out of Charlotte when it came to basketball, but since joining the League there has always seemed to be an active effort for State to carry the water of the North Carolina centered media on the football side. Their seasons have a Rinse and Repeat nature to them where they will win a big game and fall flat on their faces; they just do it multiple times a year.

Doeren is alot like Stoops; he's a pretty good coach and I'm not so sure he has underachieved because their roster is annually overhyped preseason. They have had bad QB play outside of a great year out of Leary before he was hurt. They had that baffler when we beatup Brennan Armstrong last year and they found an answer in Malik Murphy...and he proceeded to pull the now redshirt me after four games optout to land a bigger NIL deal on the open market. He ended up at Duke. Put him at NC State and they probably have at minimum two more wins.

It will be interesting to see if they hold onto their WR Concepcion in the offseason.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

The Pack can still end up in a bowl game.

Definitely higher expectations based on last season but that’s modern CFB. Will be a whole lot of that going forward.

Kind of like the NFL in that there is just so much turnover year to year.

Said in a thread about UGA losing to get used to that. I think we’re going to see less 3,4,5+ year runs by the top tier programs. So that definitely applies to programs down the list.

When teams have boosters willing to spend 20-25m per year for their classes it's going to be hard to just win. Vols are starting to charge every fan tha attends 10$ per ticket, we all know it won't stop at 10$. But they also have some deep pocket boosters willing to pay big bucks. UGA doesn't have that. If it takes 25m a year to win we are done. But that isn't our issue this year. The worst OL coach in P4 and one of the least innovated OC who is running the same routes out of same formations he has ran forc20 years. Teams know what we are running before we snap the ball, thanks Mike.

It’s going to be hard not only for UGA to keep title hunting pace, but for rank n file to sustain 8-9 win seasons.

 

[gamecockcat]

Bobo was a curious choice. He hasn't been awful during his career but I don't feel like he's widely recognized as a good-to-great OC, either. Surely doesn't help the OC when the QB throws 2 picks a game. Maybe not all Beck's fault if the offense is totally predictable but some of his interceptions that I've seen were just horrible throws.

 

[UKat1]

I've been saying this.

I will never tell any of you or especially the Richie riches on how to spend their extra money but whats the ROI?

I work in finance and just can't see the ROI for UK football with NIL. If the spending isn't gonna win a national title or the sec or most likely, not make a playoff...what's the point of the spending?

Counter argument is you have to try to have the slim to none chance outlined above so it's a bit of a lose-lose for fans at a program like UK or even NC State.

Example #1.....Indiana seems to have made it work at least this season for ROI. I mean they are 10-0 and in the CFP

 

[UKat1]

Three seconds?? Did you mean 1/3 of a second? That is more like it on most passing plays.

For any team, the QB better let that ball fly in 3 seconds.....

 

[vhcat70]

If it takes 25m a year to win we are done. But that isn't our issue this year. The worst OL coach in P4 and one of the least innovated OC who is running the same routes out of same formations he has ran forc20 years. Teams know what we are running before we snap the ball, thanks Mike.

7-2 & this is what he says. I understand the Grumpy part now.

 

[Girthang]

People were pissed that Stoops was talking to A&M, then happy he was leaving, then pissed he was staying, and now they're finally seeing why he was considering it.

A&M has the money that Stoops & Co need to solidify their roster. You have to PAY for the top tier, future Pro OL that can run block AND pass block. Even Georgia is (and likely has been for a long time) struggling some this year because of what other programs can and will pay for a deep roster. You need the kind of money that can keep a talented 2 deep to finish above 9 wins now, especially so when you don't have SEC titles in your history books.

This staff has been able to identify HS talent, but they don't had the money to hang onto it. (Who wants to develop a player for 2 years and have them transfer to Alabama or Texas? You can't prevent it. Only chance is to out-bid these schools, which is a completely different skill set/profession than coaching college football required.) So they've been all in on the portal, like NCSt, and there's no WAY to know how that's going to turn out year to year.

It's gonna take a little while to shake out, but there are going to be a lot more losers in this game of musical chairs than people thought there would be. I hope everyone got their moneys worth over the past decades, because it won't be recognizable soon enough.

 

[UKWildcats1987]

Example #1.....Indiana seems to have made it work at least this season for ROI. I mean they are 10-0 and in the CFP

Never gonna get such an easy schedule in the SEC. 10 games with 0 wins over a team with a winning record?

It's definitely an outlier in the grand scheme but they will make the playoff and no IU fan will care that they get their asses kicked by a sec team when they do.

They have beaten the tomato cans on their schedule though so kudos to them.

 

[Tskware]

Never gonna get such an easy schedule in the SEC. 10 games with 0 wins over a team with a winning record?

It's definitely an outlier in the grand scheme but they will make the playoff and no IU fan will care that they get their asses kicked by a sec team when they do.

They have beaten the tomato cans on their schedule though so kudos to them.

We will find out next week vs Ohio State

 

[WildcatofNati2]

People were pissed that Stoops was talking to A&M, then happy he was leaving, then pissed he was staying, and now they're finally seeing why he was considering it.

A&M has the money that Stoops & Co need to solidify their roster. You have to PAY for the top tier, future Pro OL that can run block AND pass block. Even Georgia is (and likely has been for a long time) struggling some this year because of what other programs can and will pay for a deep roster. You need the kind of money that can keep a talented 2 deep to finish above 9 wins now, especially so when you don't have SEC titles in your history books.

This staff has been able to identify HS talent, but they don't had the money to hang onto it. (Who wants to develop a player for 2 years and have them transfer to Alabama or Texas? You can't prevent it. Only chance is to out-bid these schools, which is a completely different skill set/profession than coaching college football required.) So they've been all in on the portal, like NCSt, and there's no WAY to know how that's going to turn out year to year.

It's gonna take a little while to shake out, but there are going to be a lot more losers in this game of musical chairs than people thought there would be. I hope everyone got their moneys worth over the past decades, because it won't be recognizable soon enough.

Sorry, but you're wrong. The game has more parity than ever now, and will continue to have more going forward. No longer does Alabama get to dominate every year. There will be more Indianas in the playoff than imagined in a million years. It's a new world and a better world, and you and old Grumpy Georgia may disagree but whatever. It's better now and the ratings show it. UK sucks now, but it's not because of anything other than, we now suck. UK keeps its best players, hasn’t lost much of anyone, gets 5 star portal players, and sucks anyway. Whose fault is that, certainly not the new system.

Who have we lost to Texas or Alabama? The only good players we lost are to midmajors when we stupidly let them go. Like, Chris Lewis. John Young. Name one big name stud we've lost to a blueblood. Justin Rodgers? He was good riddance. Who else? We suck on our own, Indiana doesn't, Vanderbilt doesn't. More parity than ever now, exactly the opposite of what you posted.

 

[WildcatofNati2]

The playoffs might include Indiana, BYU, and Boise St., and other bluebloods like Ole Miss and possibly even Missouri and SMU, but this new world is so unfair to UK!

Laughing. We simply can't outbid the Indianas and the Colorados. Can't hang with the big boys like those guys. But, they have easy schedule. Ok, then, can't hang with the South Carolina and Vandy, then, lol. It's all about them 5 star transfers they snatched from us. NIL, etc.🙄 If only this new world order gave us a chance against Vanderbilt.

 

[WildcatofNati2]

We will find out next week vs Ohio State

Guarantee you their loss to Ohio State would be about 28 to 30 points less than ours would be. But we’ll never know for sure.

 

[Girthang]

Sorry, but you're wrong.

About What? Lol. Let's all get a peek at your crystal ball.

The game has more parity than ever now, and will continue to have more going forward. No longer does Alabama get to dominate every year. There will be more Indianas in the playoff than imagined in a million years. It's a new world and a better world,

It's the same world, no matter how hysterical and fanatical you get about it. Check out a thing called history. There was parity in the early days of college football. There is some semblance of parity now. Enjoy it while it lasts.

and you and old Grumpy Georgia may disagree but whatever.

Lol. Grumpy doesn't agree with me, nor read my posts. He blocked me for disagreeing with him over a year ago.

It's better now and the ratings show it. UK sucks now, but it's not because of anything other than, we now suck.

Having a bad year doesn't mean "UK sucks now," chicken little. It's absolutely hilarious that people can claim how great Indiana is now based off of one season, but can't use the same reasoning to see that we've taken a step back ALSO for one season.

With the same lack of logic, money has brought parity to everyone, except it has nothing to do with UK. You're not making any sense.

UK keeps its best players, hasn’t lost much of anyone, gets 5 star portal players, and sucks anyway. Whose fault is that, certainly not the new system.

How many "5 star portal players" did UK get? This should be some fantastical writing.... can't wait

Who have we lost to Texas or Alabama? The only good players we lost are to midmajors when we stupidly let them go. Like, Chris Lewis. John Young.

Wait for it. Wait for it....

Name one big name stud we've lost to a blueblood. Justin Rodgers? He was good riddance.

Oops. So we did lose a stud or we didnt? Lol.

He WAS a 5 star. Out of high school. Wasn't a 5 star when he left UK was he? Do you understand the difference?

Who else? We suck on our own, Indiana doesn't, Vanderbilt doesn't. More parity than ever now, exactly the opposite of what you posted.

I didn't say "WE lost anyone" to Texas or Alabama. I didn't say there doesn't seem to be parity right now.

You're missing the points completely, but you have to look further ahead than what's in front of your nose. What is the end result of big money bidding for the best talent?

"I'm sure everything will be just fine."
"Money is involved but there will be parity anyway."
"There's no way this can get out of hand, because the NCAA has it all under control."

How did Indiana get to 10 wins? Was it by taking mediocre talent and building it up? Or was it by getting great talent and using it properly? How did they get the talent they do have? Does it have ANYTHING to do with their schedule?

-Are we jumping the gun on "parity" simply because the SEC has done what was expected in this first year of new scheduling?

-Did the SEC shoot itself squarely in the foot eliminating divisions and fkn with the schedule so dramatically? (As I thought it had when this cluster was first announced)



Indiana has money behind it. If they haven't used it yet, they will. They have a lot more money to draw from than UK, which is the exact OPPOSITE of PARITY. We shouldn't confuse temporary change with parity

 

[Girthang]

Guarantee you their loss to Ohio State would be about 28 to 30 points less than ours would be. But we’ll never know for sure.

You can't guarantee SHT.

Lost to Georgia by 1 point and none of the doom and gloomers here thought we'd be within 3 TDs of the Bulldogs. NONE. Because none of them KNOW SHT about football.

What was your prediction of that game btw?

 

[truebluewildcat]

This thread is a microcosm of all threads ever.

Just never ending excuses. Generally about money and talent.

There will be 4-6 teams in the playoffs, even more who sniffed around, flirted had great seasons who aren’t out bidding nor out talenting anyone.

Every year we see all these ifs, ands, butts, candy, nutts, could’ve, would’ve, should’ve…arguments debunked.

It’s called the Top 25. There’s about 6-10 mega rich, mega talented programs the other 15 are good even fair to middling programs that aren’t stacked with talent nor do they have huge pockets compared to UK.

I’m so glad IU did what it did this season because I think it’s really awoken a lot of folks from the excuse induced daze we’re always in around here. Hooked up to an IV of all the reasons why not.

Folks caught a glimpse of IU doing what they’re doing with James Madison talent a new HC and some fairly young/green assistants.

Now some questions are being asked. Over a decade in, we’ve spent the money on staff, facilities, resources…and we’re not close to sniffing top 25 or having even just 1 great one shining moment type season. In fact we’re regressing. We’re losing to comparable middle-lower tier programs.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

Sorry, but you're wrong. The game has more parity than ever now, and will continue to have more going forward. No longer does Alabama get to dominate every year. There will be more Indianas in the playoff than imagined in a million years. It's a new world and a better world, and you and old Grumpy Georgia may disagree but whatever. It's better now and the ratings show it. UK sucks now, but it's not because of anything other than, we now suck. UK keeps its best players, hasn’t lost much of anyone, gets 5 star portal players, and sucks anyway. Whose fault is that, certainly not the new system.

Who have we lost to Texas or Alabama? The only good players we lost are to midmajors when we stupidly let them go. Like, Chris Lewis. John Young. Name one big name stud we've lost to a blueblood. Justin Rodgers? He was good riddance. Who else? We suck on our own, Indiana doesn't, Vanderbilt doesn't. More parity than ever now, exactly the opposite of what you posted.

UGA certainly has some issues, but u do t think it's as much as NIL related as some of the recent hires. We went from maybe the best OC in college football to replacing him with one of the worst, the only thing on his resume that says hire me is being Kirby's best friend, hiring an OL coach that has been awful for 30 years. Ironically both are rethreads and were on the staff that started the decline for Mark Richt. Those are the major reasons for our offensive struggles. Our entire offense is horizontal, we can run misdirection because of so much penetration, 2 of those guys were starters on a NC team. Can't run anything deep because not enough time. If Bobo doesn't step down on his own he will force his best friend to fire him. I think he will fire the OL coach, hope he does something with the OC. Ol coach can't recruit or develope, and has been a college coaches for 30 years, and no where longer than 3 years. Our recruiting is fine, ex ept ol.

Now we are not going to win recruiting battles where NIL is the first priority, but do ok with everyone else.

As for parity, I don't see it much different, a couple teams are having big years, but they fell into some favorable schedules to help that alone