exactly. You have to have a certain number of upperclassmen to break the curse. Whether they contribute a ton isn't important, it's their mystical upperclassmen super powers that does it.
I know it's an extremely frowned upon opinion to have on this board but I think there is some truth to the OP's point.
I am of the opinion that a team without contribution from an upperclassmen cannot win the title. History proves as much as it's never been done. UK's 2012 team, which was led by mostly underclassmen, had quite the significant contribution from one Darius Miller, who was a senior. Many have argued that a team led by star freshmen Anthony Davis and MKG would probably have won the title even without Miller. I would urge those people to go back and watch those tournament games and see who got the ball down in the paint when the Cats needed a basket. It was Miller and he was very effective.
The truth is, that team needed all those pieces to win. The problem going forward is that Cal has created a culture that, in my opinion, will never yield a team like that again (again, my opinion but please allow me to explain further through this very post). And without an upperclassmen contribution down the road, there will be no titles. History has proved that over and over. It simply cannot be argued otherwise, you MUST have contribution from an upperclassmen to win the title. Now could Cal go out and prove that wrong? Sure, anything is possible. But it's not probable.
So why won't Cal have another team like 2012? First of all, Cal has created a culture where the only players that actually become upperclassmen are either A). Players born and raised in KY (Miller, Willis, Hawkins, Etc)......B). Players that missed significant time due to injury (WCS, Poythress, etc).......or C). Walk-ons. All other players simply won't make it to their junior year's due to declaring or transferring. The culture at UK is that you better produce and go pro or you will be recruited over. Why else would a Briscoe or Humphries declare with no shot at being a first rounder, and no real guarantee that they'd even be drafted? They left because what happens if they come back? Their minutes go down due to incoming freshmen. It's risk vs reward for them. The only other option is to transfer (see Wiltjer, Lee, Charles Matthews, etc). All would have been fantastic upperclassmen contributors necessary for winning a title, but none of them stuck around. Why? Because they were recruited over. Which is fine, but there is a price to pay. When Cal had Briscoe coming back as a sophomore point guard did it keep him from going out and getting a freshmen point guard? No. He went and got Fox.
So you see Cal's created a culture where it really is failure to stay beyond 2 years. Well what about Hawkins and Willis? They were quality upperclassmen. Yes that's true. But neither were good enough to go pro, and they were KY kids so they stayed as opposed to transferring.
Let's examine the team from 2012 more closely. It had two players (Jones and Lamb) that any other year probably don't return. Had it not been for a potential NBA lockout those guys are one and done all day. Especially Jones, no way Cal let's a player like him stay. Think about how many players recently that Cal has said "you have to go". No way he allows Jones to return. Again, given the current climate at UK, I just don't see players like Jones and Lamb returning for sophomore years, let alone junior and senior years. We all thought Booker would be a two year player...gone. We thought Ulis would be a 3-4 year player.....gone. Quality players with aspirations of going pro simply can't stay beyond their sophomore years. It's too risky at UK. No upperclassmen = lesser chance for title.
I used to say all the time that Cal needs to find a way to get kids that are fringe first rounders to stay another year to try and solidify themselves as a guaranteed first round pick (and to help UK's team). But now I am realizing that it's too risky for these players to do. Especially a sophomore. Why is it risky to stay? Because you risk not getting the minutes due to the next batch of one and done. Without the minutes to prove yourself you won't get drafted.
My opinion is that if you are a highly touted player coming out of high school, you essentially get two years to "make it" if you go to UK. That's it. If you don't go pro, you will have already been recruited over. Your best option is to A) try to turn pro or B) transfer.
Let's take SKJ and Gabriel as possible players who could stay and become quality upperclassmen contributors. Let's say they have decent years this year but aren't anywhere near guaranteed first round draft picks, what will they do? My opinion is they will try and go pro. Why?The answer is because it's too risky to return. Cal's going to bring in another freshmen batch that will get all the minutes. SKJ and Gabriel may not get the minutes to improve their stock. Their best bet is to go pro and take their chances in the d-league or overseas.
To put a bow on this opinion; you might say "so what, Cal brings in the best players every year, we are always in the hunt". My response is, yes UK will be in the hunt but they won't win without the contribution of an upperclassmen. If you believe Cal can buck that trend then power to you. History says otherwise.
Last year's team had the perfect recipe to win the title but got screwed by the officials. What was the recipe? Quality upperclassmen in Willis and Hawkins combined with star freshmen in Bam, Fox, and Monk. The question going forward is, how can we get quality upperclassmen like Willis and Hawkins again? My opinion is that the culture dictates that you won't, unless they're KY born kids, or forced to stay due to injury. Otherwise, they won't exist.
So if it's so clear that a team must have contribution from an upperclassmen to win the title why doesn't Calipari try to get some kids to stick around? That's a great question.
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