NBA expected to lower age limit from 19 to 18

[Cawood86]

I don't understand why the NBA continues to erode their product like this when, they could at least help themselves and the players by at least leaving it like it is.

What has it hurt leaving it like it is?

 

[Larry Skaggs]

This will benefit coach at Virginia the most

 

[Padsfs07]

Not confirmed yet at all just in serious discussions, I’m sure if it’s something the PU really wants then it will get passed, The current CBA runs thru 2024 season. So it appears the 2025 draft may be the first one under the new rule.

If it is that draft class at the earliest, that would be the class after Jackson's current 2024.

Regarding Calipari, he has proven that he can get the best transfers too so I'm not worried. In a world where Zion Williamson doesn't exist, PJ Washington and Reid Travis look pretty good.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Yeah sounds like our recruits are safe from this.. Which is great they did this in this manner, because it really would have ****ed over some teams, and not even just in the college game.

If this happens, then Cal will need to start making prep work now. In my eyes, you see if a top10 player wants to play college ball, and if he's already shaky on that prospect, you move on.

 

[Justwar]

I don't understand why the NBA continues to erode their product like this when, they could at least help themselves and the players by at least leaving it like it is.

What has it hurt leaving it like it is?

Nba wants to develop its g league and provide more of a academy system that Europe does

 

[Justwar]

Yeah sounds like our recruits are safe from this.. Which is great they did this in this manner, because it really would have ****ed over some teams, and not even just in the college game.

If this happens, then Cal will need to start making prep work now. In my eyes, you see if a top10 player wants to play college ball, and if he's already shaky on that prospect, you move on.

It'll effect the Ian and tre class. 95%

 

[Deli owl]

Now get rid of NIL and go back to amateur sport. Want to get paid? Go pro in the NBA, G league, or overseas. Want to work on your craft in an amateur sport? Go to college.

 

[Justwar]

Now get rid of NIL and go back to amateur sport. Want to get paid? Go pro in the NBA, G league, or overseas. Want to work on your craft in an amateur sport? Go to college.

LOL it's not a amateur sport when others are making tons off your name and likeness.

 

[Deli owl]

LOL it's not a amateur sport when others are making tons off your name and likeness.

Others making money has absolutely nothing to do with you being in an amateur sport. Zero

 

[Justwar]

Others making money has absolutely nothing to do with you being in an amateur sport. Zero

Would you just rather see a extremely watered down product for the sake of amaeteurism?

 

[Magilla Gorillla]

The NCAA better figure out how to open the flood gates in terms of NIL. Because if the NBA decides to turn the G League into a money making venture, I can see fans starting to turn on G League games over just a casual 'my team ain't playing' NCAA game. IF that happens, you'll see more guys chose GL. Eventually the talent, quality, entertainment and interest decline in NCAA basketball. Then all that NIL money will dry up. Fast forward 15-20 years and you could see NCAA closer to WNBA than NBA in terms of quality and interest.

There is not a single soul on this planet that gives a damn about the Rio Grande Valley Vipers. No one cares about the high school kids either except for their relation to their favorite college team. No G League team will ever be able to compete with colleges.

 

[Justwar]

There is not a single soul on this planet that gives a damn about the Rio Grande Valley Vipers. No one cares about the high school kids either except for their relation to their favorite college team. No G League team will ever be able to compete with colleges.

It's just never been fully invested in yet. I can see branding as a benefit with college but in a g league you would get unlimited practice and workout time.

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

The same folks in this thread if the criteria was different:

Keep OAD and get rid of G-league high salaries: this is a great thing for Kentucky!

Raise the age limit to 20: this is a great thing for Kentucky!

Get rid of OAD entirely: this is a great thing for Kentucky!

Some of our fans would spin it as a positive no matter what, but the reality is that OAD has helped Calipari and Kentucky immensely. It's going to hurt our program when this thing goes away.

 

[BigRedMachineBigBlueNation]

It’s dumb but go for it, NBA. The percent of high school kids who can make it in the NBA is small. A large majority of them will be busts. Which should hopefully teach the Sharpe’s of the world they’re no LeBron like they (and their handlers tell) themselves

 

[CatsRWild]

This was a necessary move by the NBA. Expansion is coming soon, Vegas and Seattle teams likely just the start. So they need more players to fill those rosters hopefully the ncaa will make the decision to allow players to play in college if not drafted or dont like thier draft spot, like the baseball rule.

 

[BigRedMachineBigBlueNation]

Nba wants to develop its g league and provide more of a academy system that Europe does

Europe is gay

 

[BigRedMachineBigBlueNation]

Nba wants to develop its g league and provide more of a academy system that Europe does

So they want Euro soccer league’s pyramid structure without relegation and promotion

 

[SemperFiCat]

There is not a single soul on this planet that gives a damn about the Rio Grande Valley Vipers. No one cares about the high school kids either except for their relation to their favorite college team. No G League team will ever be able to compete with colleges.

I don't disagree, right now. I'm saying, what if the age limit goes down to 18 and the NBA decides it wants to try to make money off the G League?? IF the NBA decides it wants to drag the GL out of the ether, and into more of a showcase, it COULD do it. And it would absolutely cut into NCAA talent if it were more mainstream. Heck, the NBA could just use it to pay for all those WNBA commercials on ESPN.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

The same folks in this thread if the criteria was different:

Keep OAD and get rid of G-league high salaries: this is a great thing for Kentucky!

Raise the age limit to 20: this is a great thing for Kentucky!

Get rid of OAD entirely: this is a great thing for Kentucky!

Some of our fans would spin it as a positive no matter what, but the reality is that OAD has helped Calipari and Kentucky immensely. It's going to hurt our program when this thing goes away.

Well for starters, no one said the first one, at least no more than 1 or 2 people. I've never even seen someone mention G-League salaries outside of this thread.

As for the other two.. both can ACTUALLY be true. I think anything is better than 1AD.. I never loved the idea of trying to make an 18-year old work for one year only to have him bolt. I'd rather see no one get the top10 recruits, or raise the limit to 20. Both would be beneficial for UK. And not really from a competition standpoint, just from roster turnover. Kentucky has had probably the worst roster turnover of any school not named Duke.

Regardless, we're talking about 7 or 8 kids who will go right to the NBA. We need to relax. I'm not convinced something like this would have affected Maxey, Ty, Damion, Livingston. Now, we probably lose Clarke, BJ and Sharpe.. but uh.. I don't think we miss much (with all due respect to TClarke and his family).

Cal is building a roster through the transfer portal and a heavier emphasis on lower recruits. Whether by design or forced, it means we have great roster stability.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Not to mention, if it's fact that Cal can't win without 1AD talent, then that means we lose to a 15-seed again next year and he leaves. So this, to me, is a problem that just won't matter. Either Cal does fine with it, or he's abysmal without an AD/Wall and he leaves. In 2-3 years this won't be an issue.

 

[PhattyJ4UK]

Let em do it. Who cares?

Yall act like 40 high schoolers will go pro.

Pj Washington type lol.. but he's a pretty damn good player actually. I still remember some pretty amazing players during the last straight to the league era .. and it will be similar this time around. Draft picks are a valuable asset and they won't waste first rounders on anything but a sure thing. And with the allure of the foreign market being higher than ever tbe fringe players will be risking a lot attempting to do so. I'll take our chances eith an Antoine walker as opposed to a Shaedon Sharpe.

At least now when they come to college... they all will have chosen college and not feel the almost like failure I think they feel now after one season if not nba ready. I'd imagine no more 5 high schoolers drafted per year. Hell, kobe fricken Bryant was drafted mid first round but was also hyped as the next great beforehand. They werent just thrkwing super high picks out. (29 picks went 13th)

 

[Deli owl]

Would you just rather see a extremely watered down product for the sake of amaeteurism?

That won't matter at all since the age limit is changing. There's no choice. If they can go pro they will. the others will be in college till ready whether they are paid or not.

 

[Justwar]

That won't matter at all since the age limit is changing. There's no choice. If they can go pro they will. the others will be in college till ready whether they are paid or not.

They'll go pro in other avenues like OTE, g league or overseas if you changed the model

 

[Deli owl]

They'll go pro in other avenues like OTE, g league or overseas if you changed the model

Some will but they have that option now and aren’t doing it other than a few.

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

Not to mention, if it's fact that Cal can't win without 1AD talent, then that means we lose to a 15-seed again next year and he leaves. So this, to me, is a problem that just won't matter. Either Cal does fine with it, or he's abysmal without an AD/Wall and he leaves. In 2-3 years this won't be an issue.

Or he's just good enough to play it out like Tubby did and have a bunch of solid semi-veteran teams that fizzle once the tourney comes around. Kind of like Cal's 2006, 2007, 2022 and 2019 teams did.

 

[true blue1]

It’s sad Cal didn’t win more titles with the talent he had.

 

[Justwar]

Some will but they have that option now and aren’t doing it other than a few.

Because of nil money.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Or he's just good enough to play it out like Tubby did and have a bunch of solid semi-veteran teams that fizzle once the tourney comes around. Kind of like Cal's 2006, 2007, 2022 and 2019 teams did.

News flash: No coach we hire is going to go 10 years with 3 titles, 5 final4's, no early losses and 35+ win seasons. Not even the supposed GOAT coach in K can pull something like that off, not in today's game. There are going to be some dips, some years where we think they might not be the best option.

Also, can we please stop referencing 2022? We learned very quick once the dust settled that 2 of our guards were banged up during those last 10 games.. one of which, our 2-guard, couldn't walk without pain. We put a team on the floor, that when healthy was likely getting an elite 8. Again, whoever the next coach is, will likely have some disappointment years, due to something out of his control like a big injury.

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

News flash: No coach we hire is going to go 10 years with 3 titles, 5 final4's, no early losses and 35+ win seasons. Not even the supposed GOAT coach in K can pull something like that off, not in today's game. There are going to be some dips, some years where we think they might not be the best option.

Also, can we please stop referencing 2022? We learned very quick once the dust settled that 2 of our guards were banged up during those last 10 games.. one of which, our 2-guard, couldn't walk without pain. We put a team on the floor, that when healthy was likely getting an elite 8. Again, whoever the next coach is, will likely have some disappointment years, due to something out of his control like a big injury.

I like you, man, so I appreciate the discussion. No one should expect the discussion on 2022 to cease when we all know there was a top 7 pick on the bench. That discussion should include that reality. So no, Cal doesn't get a pass for 2022 when he invited that travesty to Lexington.

And this discussion isn't about expectations as much as it is the soon-to-be absence of elite talent from the college game. Let's try this one: Cal has yet to get to a single Final Four in his entire career without a top 8 pick on his roster. We can speculate all we want to, but he wins 9 more games per year when he has a top 2 pick on his roster.

Most of all, ask Cal if he really wants to stop being able to land guys in that Justin Edwards category. That's the most telling aspect of all of this. He wants those guys for a reason.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

I like you, man, so I appreciate the discussion. No one should expect the discussion on 2022 to cease when we all know there was a top 7 pick on the bench. That discussion should include that reality. So no, Cal doesn't get a pass for 2022 when he invited that travesty to Lexington.

And this discussion isn't about expectations as much as it is the soon-to-be absence of elite talent from the college game. Let's try this one: Cal has yet to get to a single Final Four in his entire career without a top 8 pick on his roster. We can speculate all we want to, but he wins 9 more games per year when he has a top 2 pick on his roster.

Most of all, ask Cal if he really wants to stop be able to land guys in that Justin Edwards category. That's the most telling aspect of all of this. He wants those guys for a reason.

There IS some truth to Sharpe, and that he could have stepped in to play. Sure. At the same time, the team, as is, with no top10 talent, was good enough for a 2-seed, and would be a 1-seed if we were healthy for SEC play. Both can be true. Sharpe was mishandled, yet the team was fine without him, and Cal did a fine job all around.

A top8 draft pick or top8 HS recruit? I would imagine MANY coaches don't have Final 4s unless they have an elite player. The Final4 isn't supposed to be as easy as some of you think. I think it's more about YOUNG talent struggling early, than it is NOT having an uber talented recruit. 2014 and 2010 saw a lot of issues early on, and they rally'd late. Even Fox and Murray, I remember people questioning both here at times early on.

Anyways, it's such a small sample size, to think that he only does well when he has a specific type of recruit, not to mention some of his LESSER talent teams went FURTHER than his more talented teams. There is no reason to think that Cal CAN'T win a title or get a Final4, unless he has a top8 player on his team.

And of course a coach wants elite talent, every coach wants a John Wall. No one is saying it doesn't help. I want Cal to land the top guys, but I ultimately don't think it's something you HAVE to have.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

I will adjust one of my stances though: I would not want to lose out on having like 3 or 4 top10 guys in a class. That's obviously a game changer. The problem is, I don't know if Cal is back to that level of recruiting we saw in his first few years. So while I will agree SOS, I also wouldn't want to part with a class like that.. I AM OK to lose one top10 player and replace him with one top25 player who will likely play 2 years.

And that's kind of where I think our recruiting is.. 1 or 2 top10 guys.. where our ceiling is 3 of them and our floor is maybe just a few guys in the top25. I believe our recruiting will land in this range.

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

There IS some truth to Sharpe, and that he could have stepped in to play. Sure. At the same time, the team, as is, with no top10 talent, was good enough for a 2-seed, and would be a 1-seed if we were healthy for SEC play. Both can be true. Sharpe was mishandled, yet the team was fine without him, and Cal did a fine job all around.

A top8 draft pick or top8 HS recruit? I would imagine MANY coaches don't have Final 4s unless they have an elite player. The Final4 isn't supposed to be as easy as some of you think. I think it's more about YOUNG talent struggling early, than it is NOT having an uber talented recruit. 2014 and 2010 saw a lot of issues early on, and they rally'd late. Even Fox and Murray, I remember people questioning both here at times early on.

Anyways, it's such a small sample size, to think that he only does well when he has a specific type of recruit, not to mention some of his LESSER talent teams went FURTHER than his more talented teams. There is no reason to think that Cal CAN'T win a title or get a Final4, unless he has a top8 player on his team.

And of course a coach wants elite talent, every coach wants a John Wall. No one is saying it doesn't help. I want Cal to land the top guys, but I ultimately don't think it's something you HAVE to have.

The sample size runs a few decades. How much of a sample size do you think qualifies as a "large" sample size?

Cal has five seasons in his career where he's had a top 2 pick on the roster. He's averaging over 36 wins per season when he has one on the team, as opposed to around 27 wins per year at Kentucky when he doesn't have one (not counting the COVID year).

UK, probably above any other program, has benefited to most from the OAD. If OAD is done away with, I can guarantee you Calipari won't be happy about it.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

The sample size runs a few decades. How much of a sample size do you think qualifies as a "large" sample size?

Cal has five seasons in his career where he's had a top 2 pick on the roster. He's averaging over 36 wins per season when he has one on the team, as opposed to around 27 wins per year at Kentucky when he doesn't have one (not counting the COVID year).

Well for starters I dont really care about his time at Memphis.. and you say 20 years like it's some giant swath of data points.. it's literally just 13 data points of his time here. And it really doesn't tell me much. The year we had Noel we were crappy. The years we had FIVE top10 recruits, we barely made the tournament.

Since several here loved saying "those years were in the past" when comparing 2010-2015 to the 2020 debacle.. that, too, is now in the past. Cal's most recent year here, the one that best points to how the program is going: We were a 2-seed, with two big injuries, still won 26 games, and we lost because our injured guards, couldn't make shots, and we got bounced in a very unlikely fashion. We had no top10 players and barely even a 1st round draft pick.

We had beaten both title teams by a wide margin and Kentucky was one of the favorites to win the title.. and we did it without NBA talent. Cal does not HAVE to have 3-4 top10 guys to make a Final 4... and we weren't going to get those type classes again, anyways.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

We have ONE top10 recruit next year who is a fringe one.. we might have 1 lottery pick.. yet we're a top5 team, we're going to win a lot of games and if we stay healthy it's going to be very unlikely Kentucky loses before the Elite 8.

It's going to be two years in a row, since Cal made some big changes, that we only lose a handful of games, and remain in the top10 for almost all of the season.. you can't ask for much more than that.

 

[Deli owl]

Because of nil money.

Before NIL. This was NIL year one. They just don’t want play overseas.

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

Well for starters I dont really care about his time at Memphis.. and you say 20 years like it's some giant swath of data points.. it's literally just 13 data points of his time here. And it really doesn't tell me much. The year we had Noel we were crappy. The years we had FIVE top10 recruits, we barely made the tournament.

Since several here loved saying "those years were in the past" when comparing 2010-2015 to the 2020 debacle.. that, too, is now in the past. Cal's most recent year here, the one that best points to how the program is going: We were a 2-seed, with two big injuries, still won 26 games, and we lost because our injured guards, couldn't make shots, and we got bounced in a very unlikely fashion. We had no top10 players and barely even a 1st round draft pick.

We had beaten both title teams by a wide margin and Kentucky was one of the favorites to win the title.. and we did it without NBA talent. Cal does not HAVE to have 3-4 top10 guys to make a Final 4... and we weren't going to get those type classes again, anyways.

Your description of the 2022 team sounds a lot like what people said about Tubby with his 2003 group and the Bogans injury. What about that 2019 team with PJ and company? That was a mixture of veterans (Travis, Washington, Montgomery, etc.) and freshman. They still went down before the Final Four. Look at Cal's 2006 and 2007 teams as well. Lots of vets. No Final Four. In fact, when Cal gets to a Final Four with the type of team we had last year, it will be the first time he ever did so since UMass, and even then he had #2 pick, Marcus Camby. He doesn't need "3 to 4" top ten guys to make a Final Four, but so far he's never done it without an RSCI top 5 guy (Knight, Randle, Rose, Towns, Davis, MKG) or a top 2 pick (Camby, MKG, Davis, Rose, Towns, Davis).

And it doesn't tell you much that he's winning 9 more games per season when he has a top 2 pick on his roster? 36 wins per season (1996, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2015) versus 27 wins per season at Kentucky when he doesn't have those guys. Five out of six of those top 2 picks were OAD, as you know.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Your description of the 2022 team sounds a lot like what people said about Tubby with his 2003 group and the Bogans injury. What about that 2019 team with PJ and company? That was a mixture of veterans (Travis, Washington, Montgomery, etc.) and freshman. They still went down before the Final Four. Look at Cal's 2006 and 2007 teams as well. Lots of vets. No Final Four. In fact, when Cal gets to a Final Four with the type of team we had last year, it will be the first time he ever did so since UMass, and even then he had #2 pick, Marcus Camby. He doesn't need "3 to 4" top ten guys to make a Final Four, but so far he's never done it without an RSCI top 5 guy (Knight, Randle, Rose, Towns, Davis, MKG) or a top 2 pick (Camby, MKG, Davis, Rose, Towns, Davis).

And it doesn't tell you much that he's winning 9 more games per season when he has a top 2 pick on his roster? 36 wins per season (1996, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2015) versus 27 wins per season at Kentucky when he doesn't have those guys. Five out of six of those top 2 picks were OAD, as you know.

I don't know how else to say it.

Our 2013/14 class had FIVE... FIVE top10 HS players.. and they almost didn't make the tournament because of so many regular season losses.

There isn't the strong correlation you think it is. Yes having overwhelming talent helps things.. it does not mean that a team full of lesser 5-stars can't make a Final 4..

 

[cats#1again]

Well, that's kind of another topic that I don't necessarily disagree with.. but this DOES help curtail the 1AD thing. If this passes, the top10 in recruiting won't be going to college.. they will go to the G-League or right to the NBA. And I think that's generally a good thing.

The 11th ranked recruit who goes to UK will likely not be good enough to go to the NBA after 1-year, and there will also be fewer spots with the HS class behind him taking several draft spots.

Kids will still enter the draft after 1 season. Top 50-60 kids in their class believe they are one n done now. A few going straight to the NBA won't change that at all

 

[LineSkiCat14]

But the top 50 and 60 won't get drafted after 1 year.

It might not be a huge change. It really just means the elite 7 or 8 guys will go right to the NBA which means 7 or 8 LESS 1ADs in college.

This doesn't just open more NBA opportunity for the 30th ranked HS player, either. There's still only 60 draft picks.

 

[DaProdigy23]

My understand is that the age limit is being reduced but the OAD isn’t going away. This means that young players who are reclass guys or guys that go to GLI or OTE dont need to play 2 Years. This affects Emoni Bates, Scoot, Thompson twins. Players still have to be one year removed from their high school graduation and 18yo. So the wishful thinking is that even if Ian reclasses he’d spend a year in school before going to the league. He’s old for his age anyway. But if for example someone like DJ who is young reclasses he wouldn’t need to stay at UK 2 years to be draft eligible. The significant pushback against remove OAD is coming from players and teams. They don’t want spots which go to vets going to HS kids. Teams would also have to expend more energy scouting high school/AAU events. It’s still all very confusing.