The first weekend series starts tomorrow at Kentucky Proud Park as our Kentucky Wildcats face off against the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. The Milwaukee Panthers should not be much of a challenge for UK, but it will give us our first glimpse of UK's starting rotation and how much some of our freshmen from a year ago have grown up. The Panthers have yet to play a game in 2021 as their opening series against Southeast Missouri was canceled a week ago due to snowmageddon. All in all, Milwaukee is likely not set to be a great baseball team. A year ago they really struggled and were just 1-14 when the season ended. D1Baseball projects them to finish 4th out of 7 in the Horizon League this season. While the Panthers record was atrocious a year ago, they did play a difficult schedule and are probably more competitive than those numbers indicate.
I think UK will face Matt McCarty on Friday. McCarty is a redshirt junior righty that goes 6'3 220. He was the most successful Panther starter a year ago with a 5.50 ERA, an 0-2 record and 4 starts. He threw 18 innings and his biggest issue was giving up walks. He had 10 of them to just 12 strikeouts. Opponents didn't hit him all that well at just .254 batting average against, but he did give up a pretty good number of extra base hits including 2 home runs, a triple and 4 doubles. It is possible that they move him to other days as I don't think he's their most projectable draft prospect pitcher, but he gave them the best outings as a starter last year.
On Saturday UK will be facing what I am calling (because I'm a dork) the Jack Attack. That is 6'9 230 pound lefty Jack Mahoney pitching to his battery mate catcher Jack Thelen. Both these guys are projected to be the best players for Milwaukee, at least draft wise. Mahoney is a junior that carries a career 7.58 ERA. He moved out of the bullpen and into a starting role a year ago, but the numbers don't exactly pop out at you as he went 0-3 with 4 starts and an 8.20 ERA in 18.2 innings pitched. It looks like he has some swing and miss stuff with 22 strikeouts and just 12 walks, but he just seems hittable as opponents hit .312 against him last year. By all accounts his fastball touches the low 90s, but he'll need some secondary stuff if he wants to get through UK hitters.
On Sunday I expect to see Mike Edwards on the mound for the Panthers. Mike is another junior, but a 6'2 righty. He too struggled a year ago going 0-4 with 4 starts and a 10.06 ERA. He threw 17 innings and gave up a BA against of .387. He too has some swing and miss stuff as he had 14 strikeouts to just 8 walks, but he had a propensity to give up extra base hits. 6 doubles a triple and 2 home runs in 75 at bats. Mike is going to be a guy that relies more on location and a lot of junk. He has an upper 80s fastball as well as a big curve and a slider.
Patrick Tomfohrde is likely to be their close. He's a junior righty with some decent stuff, but he is definitely hittable. While he had just a 2.45 ERA in 3.2 innings of work a year ago, opponents still hit .375 against him. He can get some strikeouts as he had 7, but he will also give up walks and lose some control with 7 of those as well. So, seems like there could be some consistency issues.
Their hitting a year ago was atrocious as they hit just .196 as a team, but this is a veteran team that can and likely will do much better. Joe Vyskocil is their 1B and was an all conference player that hit .330 with 8 dingers in 2019. Last year he hit just .222, but I expect his numbers to look closer to 2019 by the end of this season.
Zach Nogalski led the team in hitting a year ago with a BA of .377. He played RF and hit in the 4 hole for Milwaukee a year ago, but he doesn't display a ton of power. No home run a year ago, but did have 5 doubles and a triple.
I already mentioned Jack Thelen. He is a 6'4 catcher. He hit .313 in 2019 and had 8 doubles and 5 home runs in 96 at bats. So, he has some power in his bat and can be a threat.
All in all, this Milwaukee team is one that is experienced, but had a very bad year a year ago. They can bounce back, but I don't think this weekend will be the start to that. UK should handle them without much trouble. If we do not, then it will be some major red flags for us.
As for UK... the question I have currently above all else will be who our 3rd starter is. By all accounts Stupp will go Friday and Lee on Sunday. Saturday is the key... will it be the logical choice of Hazelwood, or will we see someone else? Ramsey? Strickland? All we can do is wait and see.
Also will be interesting to see how UK deals with rotations. We have a lot of players and a lot of them experienced. Shelby, Kessler, Harmon, Lewis, and Estep are all guys that played a lot in their UK careers and may now be backups. So, how will UK work them in? We know that all of them are good and capable, so they still have a ton of value. Will we see someone like Shelby play for Hill when UK faces a lefty, or will we see a consistent lineup game to game?
I think UK will face Matt McCarty on Friday. McCarty is a redshirt junior righty that goes 6'3 220. He was the most successful Panther starter a year ago with a 5.50 ERA, an 0-2 record and 4 starts. He threw 18 innings and his biggest issue was giving up walks. He had 10 of them to just 12 strikeouts. Opponents didn't hit him all that well at just .254 batting average against, but he did give up a pretty good number of extra base hits including 2 home runs, a triple and 4 doubles. It is possible that they move him to other days as I don't think he's their most projectable draft prospect pitcher, but he gave them the best outings as a starter last year.
On Saturday UK will be facing what I am calling (because I'm a dork) the Jack Attack. That is 6'9 230 pound lefty Jack Mahoney pitching to his battery mate catcher Jack Thelen. Both these guys are projected to be the best players for Milwaukee, at least draft wise. Mahoney is a junior that carries a career 7.58 ERA. He moved out of the bullpen and into a starting role a year ago, but the numbers don't exactly pop out at you as he went 0-3 with 4 starts and an 8.20 ERA in 18.2 innings pitched. It looks like he has some swing and miss stuff with 22 strikeouts and just 12 walks, but he just seems hittable as opponents hit .312 against him last year. By all accounts his fastball touches the low 90s, but he'll need some secondary stuff if he wants to get through UK hitters.
On Sunday I expect to see Mike Edwards on the mound for the Panthers. Mike is another junior, but a 6'2 righty. He too struggled a year ago going 0-4 with 4 starts and a 10.06 ERA. He threw 17 innings and gave up a BA against of .387. He too has some swing and miss stuff as he had 14 strikeouts to just 8 walks, but he had a propensity to give up extra base hits. 6 doubles a triple and 2 home runs in 75 at bats. Mike is going to be a guy that relies more on location and a lot of junk. He has an upper 80s fastball as well as a big curve and a slider.
Patrick Tomfohrde is likely to be their close. He's a junior righty with some decent stuff, but he is definitely hittable. While he had just a 2.45 ERA in 3.2 innings of work a year ago, opponents still hit .375 against him. He can get some strikeouts as he had 7, but he will also give up walks and lose some control with 7 of those as well. So, seems like there could be some consistency issues.
Their hitting a year ago was atrocious as they hit just .196 as a team, but this is a veteran team that can and likely will do much better. Joe Vyskocil is their 1B and was an all conference player that hit .330 with 8 dingers in 2019. Last year he hit just .222, but I expect his numbers to look closer to 2019 by the end of this season.
Zach Nogalski led the team in hitting a year ago with a BA of .377. He played RF and hit in the 4 hole for Milwaukee a year ago, but he doesn't display a ton of power. No home run a year ago, but did have 5 doubles and a triple.
I already mentioned Jack Thelen. He is a 6'4 catcher. He hit .313 in 2019 and had 8 doubles and 5 home runs in 96 at bats. So, he has some power in his bat and can be a threat.
All in all, this Milwaukee team is one that is experienced, but had a very bad year a year ago. They can bounce back, but I don't think this weekend will be the start to that. UK should handle them without much trouble. If we do not, then it will be some major red flags for us.
As for UK... the question I have currently above all else will be who our 3rd starter is. By all accounts Stupp will go Friday and Lee on Sunday. Saturday is the key... will it be the logical choice of Hazelwood, or will we see someone else? Ramsey? Strickland? All we can do is wait and see.
Also will be interesting to see how UK deals with rotations. We have a lot of players and a lot of them experienced. Shelby, Kessler, Harmon, Lewis, and Estep are all guys that played a lot in their UK careers and may now be backups. So, how will UK work them in? We know that all of them are good and capable, so they still have a ton of value. Will we see someone like Shelby play for Hill when UK faces a lefty, or will we see a consistent lineup game to game?
