Kentucky vs Duke

[Padsfs07]

One game isn't much of a sample size for Flagg, but I think most of your post was a solid response. To answer your question regarding Flagg, I think he's projected #1 for a reason, and I'm not buying the "NBA drafts on potential" argument here. The kid can play and he can play right now. He's dominated every level of competition he's faced. I think he dominates this season as well.

The only caveat with this is what we saw last year with Edwards and Wagner dropping heavily and Sheppard and Dillingham rising in the draft. It’s been pretty fluid, since covid, until the college games really get underway.

 

[Short-Dawg-69]

This will be our 3rd game, our first big game. So how will we compare, position by position.

It's looking like Duke will go with Proctor, Foster, Knueppel, Flagg, and either Maluach or Brown. If Maluach that is 3 FR, but either way I expect the other to play quite a bit too. Also likely coming off the bench (more than 5min) will be Gillis & James.
UK is looking like it may be Butler, Oweh, Robinson, Carr & Williams, with a deeper rotation, possibly everyone except Noah and Perry playing >5min. Although wouldn't shock me if Chandler was also limited.

PG: Proctor vs Butler. Proctor has the 4" size advantage, but is more a combo-guard than PG. Butler is more a PG, although oddly enough has never been a big assist guy. But Butler is a defensive menace. Proctor is the better shooter though, but not by a lot (5% better from 3). Duke doesn't really have a backup PG, so Foster will likely slide over (as another combo-guard) when Proctor is out, and is also a big guard (6'5). Kriisa will spell Butler, and he is the anti-Butler, a big assist guy, and a good 3pt shooter (42%, but just 1% better than Foster). I expect the difference here to be TOs, and the difficulty Butler makes it for Duke to start their offense.

SG: Foster vs Oweh. Foster has a little more height (1"), Oweh more beef (15lb). Foster more of an offense guard, while Oweh is known for his defense. Both shoot it from deep well, but Foster is better (41% vs 38%). Oweh because of his strength is better at getting to the rim and finishing. Duke may have James come off the bench here, a good scorer and shooter (38% from 3). While UK will come in with the best shooter of either team, Brea, and his 50% from 3.

SF: Knueppel vs Robinson. In today's game SF and SG are often interchangeable. FR vs SR. Knueppel is a shooter and scorer, but does other things well too. While Robinson is a scorer who can shoot it, but I don't think as well as Knueppel. Gillis will back up for Duke, an experienced bigger body, who can defend and shoot (47% from 3). While UK will backup with a FR (Chandler), and athlete with a decent all-around game.

PF: Flagg vs Carr. This is where Duke is supposed to have the big advantage, but I say not so fast. Advantage, yes. Big one, no. Carr has the size to compete with Flagg. But while Carr is not a slow lumbering guy, Flagg will be able to get around him, so Carr may have to give Flagg the 3pt shots. Carr is the better 3pt shooter, making 37% last year. Flagg's biggest advantage may be getting out on breaks, and offensive rebounds flying in from the perimeter. Almonor will backup Carr, but gives up a couple inches, and is heavier, so may be slower at defending Flagg than Carr. But on the other end, if Flagg leaves him open, he may be an even better shooter than Carr (39% from 3).

C: Maluach vs Williams. Brown will play a lot, here and backing up Flagg. Two 7-footers who aren't stick figures, one a FR, the other a SR. I'm simply going with the experienced guy here. But both will have their moments. Brown is an interesting backup, making 70% of his shots, so you know he must stay near the rim. UK counters with an even more physical guy in Garrison.

On a 10 point scale:
PG: Duke 6.5, UK 7 (edge on pressure defense)
SG: Duke 6.5, UK 7
SF: Duke 6.5, UK 6.5 (UK drops here due to backup)
PF: Duke 8, UK 7 (if you want to give Duke 8.5, I won't argue that)
C: Duke 6.5, UK 6.5
Total: Duke 34, UK 34

Awesome post

 

[JonathanW]

Flagg also had 3 assists, 3 steals, and 0.5 blocks and did so in 19 minutes because they were up so much. Hi PER from that game is quite good…19 points, 12 rebounds, 6 assists, and 6 steals and a block. Pretty good for a 17 year old in his second collegiate outing on a team with a supporting cast where he isn’t asked to do everything.

3-9 for 9 points. That's volume scoring, not being efficient. It was a solid game, extrapolated to a full 31-32 minutes (nobody plays 40 minutes) that would have been 15pts on 5-15 shooting, 10reb, 5ast, 5stl. That's good, except for the lack of efficient scoring. Actually what I like most about Flagg is his defense. Because young guys don't usually have that yet.

 

[Slowwalker]

I honestly hope we win by like 6-7. I don’t want to kill them, and at the same time, don’t want to be blown out. If it is a blowout either way, I worry we will either be too confident or be scared if we play them again.

Of course, we are dealing with a much more mature roster than we are used to as well, so maybe my concern isn’t as valid as it would be in previous years.

 

[Greatestalltime]

How bout just win next game.

We will.

 

[blue cincy]

This is a fairly close (matchup game like OP shows). Not sure which style wins out overall and will be fun to watch.
Personally I think Butler and Oweh might be the difference in this game. If we are hot from 3 it might be over early. If we are average from 3 then will be a closer game. Keep Duke from hitting too many 3s as well.

Early games are usually ugly at least for a half. I expect it to have many flows to the action. I am picking UK to win but would not want to guess margin.