Kentucky Odds to Make Tournament Next Year

[Inlumine]

Watching Miss St.- Vandy in the college World Series has me bummed that we couldn’t even make the tournament this year. I followed the team more closely last year than this year. What do you think the odds are we make the tournament next year?

I’m assuming we won’t have any staff changes this year but I think if we miss the tournament next year Ming may be on the hot seat.

 

[Big_Blue_1018]

Watching Miss St.- Vandy in the college World Series has me bummed that we couldn’t even make the tournament this year. I followed the team more closely last year than this year. What do you think the odds are we make the tournament next year?

I’m assuming we won’t have any staff changes this year but I think if we miss the tournament next year Ming may be on the hot seat.

I think Minge is already on the hot seat. More so for last year than this year. There was zero excuse not to make the tourney last season with the pitching staff and talent that was on that team. This year was an absolute train wreck and unfortunately looking at what is returning, next year could be an explosion of epic proportions. I want to have hope. I want to think that things can be turned around. I just don’t see it.

 

[RogerIndy]

I think Minge is already on the hot seat. More so for last year than this year. There was zero excuse not to make the tourney last season with the pitching staff and talent that was on that team. This year was an absolute train wreck and unfortunately looking at what is returning, next year could be an explosion of epic proportions. I want to have hope. I want to think that things can be turned around. I just don’t see it.

I didn't want to hit the "like" button because I don't "like" what you said, but I agree with it.

 

[Big_Blue_1018]

I didn't want to hit the "like" button because I don't "like" what you said, but I agree with it.

I don’t like it either.

 

[Comebakatz3]

I'd love to hear the argument from the 2 that put us at 80 percent. I could use some optimism on a rainy day...

 

[Comebakatz3]

I think Minge is already on the hot seat. More so for last year than this year. There was zero excuse not to make the tourney last season with the pitching staff and talent that was on that team. This year was an absolute train wreck and unfortunately looking at what is returning, next year could be an explosion of epic proportions. I want to have hope. I want to think that things can be turned around. I just don’t see it.

I cannot get over how bad our pitching staff was a year ago. We returned two weekend starters, one of which was SEC POTY the year before. Another was an outstanding Sunday guy with an unreal changeup. We also had an amazing closer/mid-relief guy. We had Thompson, although injured, and Haake was supposed to be a top prospect. Along with at least a decent group of freshmen with Ramsey, Harper, Hazelwood, and Coleman.

Despite this we had a pitching staff with an ERA ranked in the 200s. That is inexcusable and but for the hitting we would have been worse last year than this year.

Ohh, also... at one point the excuse was that Haake wasn't a starter. In A ball in 2019 he has 5 starts, 26 innings, and a 1.73 ERA and his strikeouts per nine is over 12. In rookie ball a year ago, the same summer he left UK, he started 6 games, pitched 15.1 innings and had a 1.76 ERA. So, 11 starts and 1.74 ERA in the minors. Yet, he had an ERA up above 8 at UK and they didn't like to start him because they didn't believe he had the ability to be a starter!? It is this kind of failure that throws up major alarm bells regarding Belanger.

 

[cats1068]

I'd love to hear the argument from the 2 that put us at 80 percent. I could use some optimism on a rainy day...

I am in the 80% crowd. I’m a glass half full guy. Always have been and always will be. I was at the next to last game vs Vandy and the last 2 pitchers for UK that game were 39 and 3. There stuff seemed to be very good. I really think next year’s team is going to prove the naysayers wrong.

 

[Comebakatz3]

I am in the 80% crowd. I’m a glass half full guy. Always have been and always will be. I was at the next to last game vs Vandy and the last 2 pitchers for UK that game were 39 and 3. There stuff seemed to be very good. I really think next year’s team is going to prove the naysayers wrong.

39 had an ERA above 10. Jordan (3) definitely has talent and I'd love for him to emerge. Still, he barely pitched this year, so he has a lot of experience to gain.

 

[RogerIndy]

I am in the 80% crowd. I’m a glass half full guy. Always have been and always will be. I was at the next to last game vs Vandy and the last 2 pitchers for UK that game were 39 and 3. There stuff seemed to be very good. I really think next year’s team is going to prove the naysayers wrong.

I would love to hear any signs of optimism. I want to be a sunshine pumper, but they are making it hard to do.

 

[sluggercatfan]

I would love to hear any signs of optimism. I want to be a sunshine pumper, but they are making it hard to do.

For real!!! I think we all HOPE next season makes all of us who are trying to temper expectations eat crow, but man it just dosen't look promising. I attend a couple of games a year and watch almost all of them I can. Would LOVE to have a reason to make the trek to watch more live.

 

[Comebakatz3]

39 had an ERA above 10. Jordan (3) definitely has talent and I'd love for him to emerge. Still, he barely pitched this year, so he has a lot of experience to gain.

Rigsby is 39. I have nothing against him, but he struggled a lot this year. His ERA was 40.50 in SEC play in 5 appearances. He pitched just two innings in those 5 appearances and gave up 10 runs, 9 earned, on 9 hits. Here is how his SEC slate went:

LSU: Came in to start the bottom of the 5th with the game tied 1-1. Gave up three straight singles and a run before giving way to Daniels. Daniels got a sac ground out before giving up the two other inherited runners to make the score 4-1. Daniels got out of the inning. Line score for Rigsby: 0.0 IP, 3 hits, 3 runs, 3 earned, 0 SO, 0 BB.

TAMU: He came in to start the top of the 6th with UK getting beat 10-5 and got a couple of fairly quick outs. He then gave up a single and a double to give up a run. Got a strikeout to end the inning. Line: 1.0 IP, 2 hits, 1 run, 1 earned, 0 BB, 1 SO.

UGA: Came in for Harper in the top of the 10th inning with the game tied, but UGA threatening with 0 outs and bases loaded thanks to back to back errors by Harper. Rigsby threw a wild pitch that gave UGA the lead before walking the batter and being pulled. Final line: All zeroes with one walk.

Mizzou: Came in to start the bottom of the 7th with UK down two runs 4-2. He gave up a home run to the first and second hitters he faced and UK went down 6-2. He then gave up a walk before being yanked. The guy he walked scored, but it was unearned. 0.0 IP, 2 hits, 3 runs, 2 earned, 1 walk, 0 strikeouts.

Vandy: Once again, he came in to start an inning. UK was, as usual, losing 9-4. He gave up a leadoff single before getting a couple outs. He then hit a batter before giving up a home run to give Vandy a 12-4 lead. He got out of the inning on the next hitter. Line: 1.0 IP, 2 hits, 3 runs, 3 earned, 1 HPB, 1 SO.


For good measure:

Louisville: This was the late shellacking we took. Rigsby came in late and UK down 12-6. He gave up a base runner due to an error on Schultz (I think) and then walked a batter before being taken out. Both of those runs scored. 0.0 IP, 0 hits, 2 runs, 1 earned, 1 walk.

Texas Tech: Probably his best outing against a quality opponent. He came in the bottom of the 7th with 1 out and one inherited runner with UK down 7-9. He did great and got a fly out to center and a strikeout to end the frame. Came back in the 8th and gave up an unearned run after a fly out. The run was silly. It was a single that was followed up by two errors to give up the run on one play. Little League stuff. He then gave up a couple of walks sandwiched around some outs to end the 9th. Line: 1.2 IP, 1H, 1R, 0 earned, 2 walks, 1 SO.

 

[Inlumine]

I personally voted 40-60%. I think it’s a coin flip whether we make it or not. If it’s a given that Ming will be gone if we miss the tournament next year, what would be the point of keeping him if there is realistically no shot.

If we miss the tournament next year is Ming gone?

 

[STUCKNBIG10]

I wanted to vote 20-40, but I had to be honest and go with 0-20. The SEC is not getting any worse and our roster looks BAD. Just a total disaster after moving into the new park.

 

[Comebakatz3]

I personally voted 40-60%. I think it’s a coin flip whether we make it or not. If it’s a given that Ming will be gone if we miss the tournament next year, what would be the point of keeping him if there is realistically no shot.

If we miss the tournament next year is Ming gone?

Doubtful to be honest. Supposedly we didn't fire Henderson. He supposedly left on his own accord. In his time year, 8 years, Henderson made the NCAA tournament just twice. The year before he became head coach, UK went 44-19 and went to the tournament. In his first three years Henderson went 84-81 and had a losing season (25-30, 8-22 SEC) in his third year. In his first four years Henderson was 129-99 with one NCAA tournament appearance (didn't host).

Nick is 103-74 in his first three years. So, he'd have to win 26 games or fewer to match Henderson's wins in 4 years. Henderson going to a regional in year 4 probably saved his bacon. Mingione going to a super regional in year 1 may save his bacon. So, even if we have a horrible 2020, we may see Mingione get 2021 just because of 2017.

By the way, Utah just hired Henderson as an associate head coach.

 

[Tannerdad]

Easily 0-20. The light at end of the tunnel is a train coming at us.

 

[sluggercatfan]

Easily 0-20. The light at end of the tunnel is a train coming at us.

 

[cats1068]

Rigsby is 39. I have nothing against him, but he struggled a lot this year. His ERA was 40.50 in SEC play in 5 appearances. He pitched just two innings in those 5 appearances and gave up 10 runs, 9 earned, on 9 hits. Here is how his SEC slate went:

LSU: Came in to start the bottom of the 5th with the game tied 1-1. Gave up three straight singles and a run before giving way to Daniels. Daniels got a sac ground out before giving up the two other inherited runners to make the score 4-1. Daniels got out of the inning. Line score for Rigsby: 0.0 IP, 3 hits, 3 runs, 3 earned, 0 SO, 0 BB.

TAMU: He came in to start the top of the 6th with UK getting beat 10-5 and got a couple of fairly quick outs. He then gave up a single and a double to give up a run. Got a strikeout to end the inning. Line: 1.0 IP, 2 hits, 1 run, 1 earned, 0 BB, 1 SO.

UGA: Came in for Harper in the top of the 10th inning with the game tied, but UGA threatening with 0 outs and bases loaded thanks to back to back errors by Harper. Rigsby threw a wild pitch that gave UGA the lead before walking the batter and being pulled. Final line: All zeroes with one walk.

Mizzou: Came in to start the bottom of the 7th with UK down two runs 4-2. He gave up a home run to the first and second hitters he faced and UK went down 6-2. He then gave up a walk before being yanked. The guy he walked scored, but it was unearned. 0.0 IP, 2 hits, 3 runs, 2 earned, 1 walk, 0 strikeouts.

Vandy: Once again, he came in to start an inning. UK was, as usual, losing 9-4. He gave up a leadoff single before getting a couple outs. He then hit a batter before giving up a home run to give Vandy a 12-4 lead. He got out of the inning on the next hitter. Line: 1.0 IP, 2 hits, 3 runs, 3 earned, 1 HPB, 1 SO.


For good measure:

Louisville: This was the late shellacking we took. Rigsby came in late and UK down 12-6. He gave up a base runner due to an error on Schultz (I think) and then walked a batter before being taken out. Both of those runs scored. 0.0 IP, 0 hits, 2 runs, 1 earned, 1 walk.

Texas Tech: Probably his best outing against a quality opponent. He came in the bottom of the 7th with 1 out and one inherited runner with UK down 7-9. He did great and got a fly out to center and a strikeout to end the frame. Came back in the 8th and gave up an unearned run after a fly out. The run was silly. It was a single that was followed up by two errors to give up the run on one play. Little League stuff. He then gave up a couple of walks sandwiched around some outs to end the 9th. Line: 1.2 IP, 1H, 1R, 0 earned, 2 walks, 1 SO.

But CBK3, you’re basing a new season on this past year’s results. This last season won’t mean diddly the first game next year. I saw that they had some good stuff. Who’s not to say that they can’t improve next season? What I’m saying is next year’s a clean slate.

 

[Comebakatz3]

But CBK3, you’re basing a new season on this past year’s results. This last season won’t mean diddly the first game next year. I saw that they had some good stuff. Who’s not to say that they can’t improve next season? What I’m saying is next year’s a clean slate.

I agree. It's a new season and he can and will improve. I think part of my concern is that I didn't see many freshman pitchers improve over the year and they all seem to have a long way to go.

 

[RogerIndy]

Easily 0-20. The light at end of the tunnel is a train coming at us.

Zero SEC wins? Not likely. I can't imagine we will be much worse than this season's dreadful 7 conference wins. We won't be the only bad team in the conference, will get a couple of wins against the middle of the pack teams and may get a surprise win or two against top teams.

 

[Tannerdad]

Zero SEC wins? Not likely. I can't imagine we will be much worse than this season's dreadful 7 conference wins. We won't be the only bad team in the conference, will get a couple of wins against the middle of the pack teams and may get a surprise win or two against top teams.

0-20 are the odds to make the NCAA tourney, not wins. And if there was a negative number, I would have taken it.

 

[Comebakatz3]

Zero SEC wins? Not likely. I can't imagine we will be much worse than this season's dreadful 7 conference wins. We won't be the only bad team in the conference, will get a couple of wins against the middle of the pack teams and may get a surprise win or two against top teams.

0-20 would be interesting considering there are 30 games. Lol. If we started 0-20 I might be okay with just forfeiting the other 10.

 

[RogerIndy]

0-20 are the odds to make the NCAA tourney, not wins. And if there was a negative number, I would have taken it.

Sorry, I misread.