Kentucky Baseball Schedule

[Big_Blue_1018]

D1 Baseball has the Cats' with the toughest non-conference schedule based on average RPI from last season. So much for playing a weak non-con. There's a difference between playing a name brand and playing really good mid-majors, especially the way the RPI is constructed.

This is only part of what D1Baseball said. They have the toughest RPI in the SEC based on out of conference schedules. But its still 112th. The following is taken directly from that particular article.

<Among the non-conference schedules, who has the best opposing average RPI from last season? That would be Kentucky at 112, followed by Vanderbilt at 117. The worst is Missouri at 171, followed by LSU at 158.

When you look at opponents’ won/loss marks from a year ago, Arkansas’s opponents average a 31-24 mark. The worst is Missouri at 23-27 and Mississippi State at 26-30. If you adjust the RPI for road win bonuses and home loss penalties, 13 of the 14 SEC schools face non-conference schedules with an average losing record. Kentucky is the outlier, thanks to their road games, at 26-26.>

 

[Seamhead_Ninja]

This is only part of what D1Baseball said. They have the toughest RPI in the SEC based on out of conference schedules. But its still 112th. The following is taken directly from that particular article.

<Among the non-conference schedules, who has the best opposing average RPI from last season? That would be Kentucky at 112, followed by Vanderbilt at 117. The worst is Missouri at 171, followed by LSU at 158.

When you look at opponents’ won/loss marks from a year ago, Arkansas’s opponents average a 31-24 mark. The worst is Missouri at 23-27 and Mississippi State at 26-30. If you adjust the RPI for road win bonuses and home loss penalties, 13 of the 14 SEC schools face non-conference schedules with an average losing record. Kentucky is the outlier, thanks to their road games, at 26-26.>

I probably worded the original post poorly, that's what I meant, that UK is playing a more difficult non-con schedule relative to its SEC peers. Bellarmine killed their RPI last season. It's easy to see they are trying to allow more margin for error there with a flawed RPI system. Look at it this way, teams in, say, Georgia have a lot more mid-week type opponents who end up with good records than this area of the country. You only have so many within a few hours of LEX.

 

[Comebakatz3]

D1 Baseball has the Cats' with the toughest non-conference schedule based on average RPI from last season. So much for playing a weak non-con. There's a difference between playing a name brand and playing really good mid-majors, especially the way the RPI is constructed.

I just think we could do with a bit more of a marquee matchup. Switch that Elon weekend with an ACC, Big 12, or Big 10 contender and you have an outstanding schedule. West Virginia isn't exactly a contender in the Big 10, but still a really solid team a year ago with an RPI of 49. They'd do pretty well, albeit the weather wouldn't be ideal for either school. I would also be good with switching them with a perennial mid-major contender like Coastal Carolina or Louisiana Tech. I think it is great that we're playing more competitive mid-majors this year. I don't know that I'd consider any of them great, but it is better that they're all more competitive than a year ago. That schedule was definitely an absolute disaster.

 

[Seamhead_Ninja]

I just think we could do with a bit more of a marquee matchup. Switch that Elon weekend with an ACC, Big 12, or Big 10 contender and you have an outstanding schedule. West Virginia isn't exactly a contender in the Big 10, but still a really solid team a year ago with an RPI of 49. They'd do pretty well, albeit the weather wouldn't be ideal for either school. I would also be good with switching them with a perennial mid-major contender like Coastal Carolina or Louisiana Tech. I think it is great that we're playing more competitive mid-majors this year. I don't know that I'd consider any of them great, but it is better that they're all more competitive than a year ago. That schedule was definitely an absolute disaster.

The issue, to some degree, is you don't get bonus points for the opponent. A road win vs. Elon is the same vs. WVU in the formula.

 

[Big_Blue_1018]

The issue, to some degree, is you don't get bonus points for the opponent. A road win vs. Elon is the same vs. WVU in the formula.

<I swear Im not singling you out by any means. I appreciate most view points on this board.>

Not exactly. A win versus a team that finishes for example 40-18 is better than a win versus a team that is 20-38 in the RPI. RPI is partly calculated on the opposing teams winning percentage. Thats why the TCU series last year was so big in regards to Kentuckys overall RPI. Lets hope in 2023 it doesnt come down to RPI and UK can get into the tournament with zero questions.

 

[Comebakatz3]

The issue, to some degree, is you don't get bonus points for the opponent. A road win vs. Elon is the same vs. WVU in the formula.

You're going to have to educate me on how that would be the same. I don't see how beating a team with an RPI of 149, a Q3 (barely) opponent is weighted the same as beating an opponent with an RPI of 49, a Q1 (barely) opponent, regardless of whether either is home/away. Of course, winning there would be key. If you lose all 3 to WVU but win all 3 against Elon then that might play a factor.

To me, SEC play is king. The OOC is less important, but if you have a solid OOC and it helps to bolster your RPI then it makes it easier for the committee to put you in. If you do enough in league play then the OOC really won't matter at all, but it is a tall task to do enough in league play.

 

[CockyCat3]

I'm merging threads here, but that article also said we are the only school in the SEC to not play a neutral site game. Seems like we could go to Texas or somewhere like that for an early season Round Robin with some other cold weather B1G or ACC schools instead of Elon. I'm actually kind of surprised some of the southern minor league parks don't put that opportunity out there more often. Seems like a win-win.

And of course, sure would be cool to play a home/neutral/home series with UL, like we've talked about before.

 

[Cats8585]

I like the strategy of the non con games on the road. It’ll help the RPI.

I just think the chances of losing some of those games increases. It’s the way to schedule for KY if you’re good enough to win those games. I like the idea, but we shall see how it works out.

 

[Comebakatz3]

I like the strategy of the non con games on the road. It’ll help the RPI.

I just think the chances of losing some of those games increases. It’s the way to schedule for KY if you’re good enough to win those games. I like the idea, but we shall see how it works out.

My taken on NC games is that you either go somewhere warm or you play solid competition. Ideally both. My problem with Elon is that it provides none of that. The temperature won't be significantly better than in Lexington and Elon is a pretty poor baseball team.

To me... go play Georgia Southern, Jacksonville, Stetson, Texas State, Wofford, Charleston, South Alabama, Houston, UCF, FAU, etc. Get into warmer weather the first weekend. Some of those teams are also very competitive while others wouldn't as much. Either way, all likely help the RPI more than Elon.

 

[Basil Cat]

My taken on NC games is that you either go somewhere warm or you play solid competition. Ideally both. My problem with Elon is that it provides none of that. The temperature won't be significantly better than in Lexington and Elon is a pretty poor baseball team.

To me... go play Georgia Southern, Jacksonville, Stetson, Texas State, Wofford, Charleston, South Alabama, Houston, UCF, FAU, etc. Get into warmer weather the first weekend. Some of those teams are also very competitive while others wouldn't as much. Either way, all likely help the RPI more than Elon.

Could not agree with this any stronger. No brainer strategy here.

 

[CockyCat3]

I agree, but I think the tough part is figuring out who is going to be good a few years ahead, and also how good you will be as well. Ideally you just know you are always going to be really good so you can schedule other good teams in non-conference. But it would be better to play Elon and win than it would be to play those teams you mentioned and lose. I think the bigger conversation here is that we shouldn't be having to schedule worried about playing any of those teams and losing. Or maybe that IS the conversation.

At the end of the day though, it comes down to handling business in the SEC. If we do that, the NC schedule won't matter. Maybe they like to schedule a weaker team to start the season so it let's all the transfers gel and figure each other out in a game situation so we peak at the right time in the SEC. It happened last year, it was just derailed by the injury bug and eveything came together a little too late in the season (SEC Tourney).