Looks like an extremely weak OOC schedule. By my count we play maybe 4 OOC teams with top 100 RPIs in 2022. Louisville and Evansville
(80), Xavier and Southern Illinois (60s).
No words.
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Kentucky Baseball Schedule
- Thread starter Comebakatz3
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Looks like an extremely weak OOC schedule. By my count we play maybe 4 OOC teams with top 100 RPIs in 2022. Louisville and Evansville
(80), Xavier and Southern Illinois (60s).
No words.
I don’t see how that non conference schedule prepares them for SEC play. Would love to see UK and Louisville play a weekend series similar to what South Carolina and Clemson do.
All that OOC schedule potentially does is pump up the win column so when they finish 11th or 12th in the conference again the same ole sunshine pumpers will be here talking about how they should be in the tournament and Minge just needs one more year.
In all honesty, I am fine with the series that UK has against one another now. However, I would add another game to it and try to play somewhere neutral. Frankfort would be most ideal if they had a proper stadium for it. Battle for the Capital.
To put it simply and sweetly... the first weekend should either be played somewhere a good deal warmer than where you play at home (Lexington is actually warmer right now as I type this than Elon, NC) or you should play a team that you know is likely to make the NCAA tournament (or at least be very close). Ideally, you get both of that from one team (or a weekend tournament). Playing Elon is none of that.
The Southern Illinois weekend is the only other weekend worth talking about outside of SEC play. The Salukis are a very good team that finished 44-16 last year and just missed on the NCAA tournament. They are coached by Lance Rhodes who is 37 and going into his 4th year. In 2 full seasons he's won 40 games in each SIL's last 40 win season (prior to 2021) was 1990. I might put him on the list of potential coaches to watch for, especially if Southern Illinois has another solid year.
There are very few things I disagree with you on but this I have to. I think Kentucky should play Louisville on a weekend. But, theres not a centrally located stadium to play that third game.
Not sure how much home and away matters in baseball. It looks as though the Quadrants do not change based upon that. So, if you play a team that is 51 in RPI it is going to be a Q2 win no matter where it was played.
2022 featured a marquee team, but after that we played some absolute duds. I think most of which we knew would be duds. So, at least we can say that while 2023 doesn't have a marquee weekend in the pre-conference schedule it does seem to be better on average (at least for now, on paper).
2022:
Jacksonville State (173) x3
SEMO (68) - This game was canceled
Bellarmine (280)
Western Michigan (254) x3
Western Kentucky (223)
Evansville (80)
TCU (34) x3
Murray State (209)
Ohio (123)
High Point (195) x3
Indiana (105)
2023:
Elon (149) x3
Evansville (80)
Wright State (143) x3
Morehead State (159)
Indiana State (109) x3
Murray State (209)
Ohio (123)
Southern Illinois (65) x 3
Indiana (105)
In 2022 we played 18 games prior to the conference schedule. We played 3 Q1 games, 1 Q2 game, 2 Q3 games and 12 Q4 games. The average RPI for all opponents was 166.
In 2023 we play 17 games prior to the conference schedule. We play 0 Q1 games. 4 Q2 games, 11 Q3 games, and 2 Q4 games. The average RPI for all opponents is 122.
I think the only change after the conference schedule starts is that we don't play Bellarmine a second time, but instead will play Xavier. The rest are going to be common opponents that we also faced in 2022.
I’m all for a tough OOC schedule to prepare you for the SEC Gauntlet. Your not going to be punished much for losses to good teams and wins only help your RPI.
Look at what lawson has the softball program playing ooc compared to this. But I’m sure we’ll stack up wins and Ming will pump more sunshine.
Look at what lawson has the softball program playing ooc compared to this. But I’m sure we’ll stack up wins and Ming will pump more sunshine.
That’s a good breakdown.
Winning at home counts for fewer points than winning on the road. A road win is worth 1.3 wins. So beating a Q3 team on the road counts more than beating a Q2 team at home in the actual formula.
The worry to me is actually winning games on the road. Even an average team is likely to play well against an SEC team on their home field and suddenly it’s a difficult game to win.
I personally don’t buy preparing to play the SEC as much of a factor. I don’t like the sunshine story of beating a bunch of bad teams and claiming that matters either. I just think it’s about having a better RPI. Last year’s team didn’t get in because of RPI. Maybe this one would be higher, but I don’t understand the baseball formula quite as well as I do the basketball one. I just know they use the same metrics but haven’t followed closely enough over time to see what stands out.
I think, push comes to shove you have to take care of business in the SEC. If you finish 8th or 9th in the SEC then it is going to be really really hard for the committee to keep you out. Finish 10th or worse and it becomes much easier, even if you have a pretty good OOC schedule and good OOC wins. I think the OOC can be a factor, but for the most part it is about how high you fall in that SEC pecking order.
Could work, but the ideal spot would be a bigger stadium than what either team plays in.
I will renew my season tickets but based on that schedule doubt I will go to a single game before mid March when the SEC starts
We’re about seven weeks away from the first game. Mid February is going to be cold.
Guess I’m a glutton for punishment……renewed my tickets today.
I’m going to PO’d if I have the same live radio broadcast problems in the stadium this spring like we had in football (radio was a minute to 1:30 behind the live action, made the radio useless)
I’m going to PO’d if I have the same live radio broadcast problems in the stadium this spring like we had in football (radio was a minute to 1:30 behind the live action, made the radio useless)
I renewed again too. NCAA tourney or bust. If we don't make the tourney, then Ming should go.
They could play the third game at the Florence Y’alls or Bowling Green Hot Rods stadiums. It can be done
2023 D1Baseball Preseason Top 25 Rankings: LSU Leads The Way • D1Baseball
LSU is No. 1 in the D1Baseball Preseason Top 25 for the first time ever, leading a group of nine SEC teams in the rankings.
D1Baseball top 25.
UK plays
@ #1 LSU
@ #2 UT
#5 TAMU
#7 UF
#10 Vandy
#16 UL
@ #20 Bama
#13 USC
That doesn't include Miss State which had the number 5 transfer class and a top 5 recruiting class. We play them weekend 1 and will learn pretty quickly how good both teams are.
I was wondering why they weren't ranked they're pretty much a fixture in the Top 25
They had a historically bad year last year. So they have a long way to go to catch back up. Of course, with the increased use of the transfer portal, it's very possible to make big jumps quickly. We saw TAMU do that last year.
It's about that time of the year. Football has ended and I'm excited to be disappointed again by UK Baseball.
But, since there's so much unknown, I hope Mingione, for his sake, has put together a under-the-radar team.
But, since there's so much unknown, I hope Mingione, for his sake, has put together a under-the-radar team.
My expectations are low again this year and probably won’t change until Mingione is gone.
Curious why that is?
I feel like we don’t know much about the lineup but should have a strong pitching staff
I think the unknown leads to caution regarding optimism. We haven't finished better than 5th in the East since year 1 of Mingione and it's been 4 straight years of finishing (or likely so given 2020) 6th or worse in the East. So, for me, it's hard to think we will buck that trend until we actually do so.
It feels like since we lost most the team to the draft in 2018 that we've largely been trying to catch ligtning in a bottle with transfers rather than building a consistent roster. That's especially the case the last two years and for the lineup. That is frustrating when it fails because there isn't a ton of continuity and building year to year.
We have been a bit more consistent with bringing in and trying to develop HS pitching talent. However, the last time we recruited a successful HS SEC starter was Zach Thompson. Every other one has struggled, transferred, been replaced by a transfer, or has not yet developed. We have a handful of guys that are juniors that just haven't found consistency. So looks like we're likely to rely on transfers to start for us again. That may go well, or may not. Haven't seen enough to know. There is depth and I think it's definitely quality at times. The question is... how consistent can they be and how often do we see that high quality stuff?
Did the guy who recruited the bad pitchers get fired?
Seems like the transfer portal is the only option unless you steal recruits from mid majors.
I don’t disagree with your sense for a “wait and see” approach. We had a really good pitching staff last year even with two big injuries and it seems like we should be good on the mound again. Not matter where the talent comes from, success is success.
That said, I have my doubts about the hitting side of things. I think it’s much more difficult for a smaller school transfer to adjust to the SEC. Last year guys like Plastiak and Estep really hurt us in SEC play, and they were returners. Need Burkes and McCoy and Felker and Pitre and Church? to all be better in league play.
Falls on the head coach. He hired those assistants and it very much seems to be his strategy to recruit in the way he has.
That really good staff was still 10th in the league. They can be a good staff. They have the tools, but again... consistency is the key and only a handful of guys showed that a year ago. I think the pitching staff is a bigger strength right now than the hitting, but again... consistency. We will see if those younger guys that are now juniors finally find that. If so, we can be dangerous. It just hasn't happened yet.
I just have lost faith in Mingione. Especially as I watch Vitello turn Tennessee around to a perennial contender and watch McDonnell still put out a top team.
I thought Mingione was a safe hire in 2016 and I’ve heard the main reason he was hired was due to John Cohen pushing him. But it was hard not to get super excited after the 2017 season.
Since then, it’s been a slow fall and I’ve lost faith in Mingione. I want to be wrong and I want him to succeed. But he has not shown anything to make me feel like he’s the right coach for the job.
Yea. A safe hire seems right, but safe hires are a dime a dozen. We have to find the game changing coach like UT and UL have done.
10th? Top 4 pitching staff in the sec by the numbers. Giving up runs in non con doesn’t matter in sec play.
Do people really think the team who was close to the second best ERA in league play was bad on the mound? That is for sure the first time I’ve heard that. Especially after losing the top two starters on the team.
I guess I just saw it much differently last year. It’s why I was confused by the earlier post. I thought we were really good on the mound but just didn’t hit well at all. Hoping that our returners outperform last years returners.
Safe is the word I thought of as well when he was announced. A big school recruiting coordinator and I expected us to recruit well.
I think the hiring of Fanning really hurt the program. That falls on the guy who hired him but it’s been a difficult climb out of that hole.
I expected to go through the pains of a first time head coach - bunt decisions and pitching changes. I was hopeful we would recruit better than we did from 2017-2019 though. Recruits from that era have been a huge disappointment.
You're right. They were better in league play, I'd argue in large part due to Guilfoil and Harney, both of which are gone. Those two were consistent. Others not as much. Which was largely my point. We will, of course, see how Williams and Bosma bounce back from injury and if those others can be more consistent.
Hitting was definitely atrocious.
Using PG, these are the overall rankings of HS recruiting and the average player score. Take this with a giant grain of salt for numerous reasons. Just interesting to see.
Fanning
2017 - 6th overall 13 in average
2018 - 12th overall 22 in average
2019 - 22nd overall 27 in average
Coggin
2020 - 29 overall 16 in average
2021 - 33 overall 30 in average
2022 - 57 overall 23 in average
2023 - 38 overall 49 in average
The strategy has definitely changed. PG rankings are really bad. Dana and Merrill weren’t even ranked when they committed and both signed for over 1.5 million.
There are kids ranked high on the first few list who didn’t play for the junior colleges they transferred to. That’s…. Pitiful.
The success of the transfers and pitchers who have been committed over the past few years has been night and day better.
Baseball also happens so far out. I would bet all the way up to the 2021 class that it was largely kids committed by Fanning. I’m going to ask and see if I can find out where the change takes place. ( side note - it kills me on the inside when 9th and 10th graders commit - but UL does it more than anyone and has done well with it )
Seems like Mingione was kind of star chasing early in his first stint as a HC. When my nephew went to Kentucky Baseball camp I took him. A lot of kids at that camp have committed to KY. Maybe the change is getting eyes on the players instead of just offering based on their ranking.
D1 Baseball has the Cats' with the toughest non-conference schedule based on average RPI from last season. So much for playing a weak non-con. There's a difference between playing a name brand and playing really good mid-majors, especially the way the RPI is constructed.
