Is Louisville screwed?

[Cotaay]

Below are the projects per school pre USC/UCLA and assuming a 12-team playoff. The Big 10 # will obviously get larger but the SEC # will as well as no other conference has any leverage at this point. The thought that the Big 10 will be able to put something together that 'Blows Away" the SEC is uneducated - both conferences will be relative equals when everything settles.

https://theathletic.com/3215360/202...-revenue-projections-for-a-12-team-cfp-world/

 

[Nightwish84]

Yes, they're screwed but it may actually help them. As others have mentioned, there will be a third conference of "undesirables". Louisville has shown that in a very weakened league, they can take advantage. The idea of being in the SEC may excite them, but they'd get destroyed in football and in basketball, I think they've only won one or two ACC tournament games since 2014. They couldn't cut it in the ACC and would suffer even more in the SEC.

 

[GermantownDawg]

View embedded media

Compelling and rich

 

[CatPatrick13]

This might answer your question

The report says that it seems certain the talks will continue through August, with a deal now very likely to eclipse $1 billion:


Apple has delved into live sports on both Apple TV+ and its TV platform recently. The company has a deal to show Friday Nigh Baseball exclusively to Apple TV+ customers through 2022. It has also recently announced an exclusive streaming deal with the MLS that will run for the next 10 years and cost it $2.5 billion.

Apple is also reportedly a front-runner for NFL Sunday Ticket and is said to be one of three suitors that have submitted bids and are awaiting a response.

Apple restarts talks with Big Ten following USC, UCLA news

A new report says Apple has reached out to the Big Ten about media rights following the news USC and UCLA are joining the league.

www.imore.com

Yeah I get that. But 100 mill each just from the media deal? A billion split between 14 teams isn’t 100 million. Just from the media deal alone is what they have to show me. Right?

 

[SPECT imaging]

Louisville was an Ohio Valley conference team not that long ago. Louisville should have never been invited to the ACC. They are going to shrink back to what they were, unless that out of control NIL philosophy they are currently attempting actually works out. I can't see that happening.

I suspect you have nailed it. A house of cards collapses eventually. They are still being investigated, and they can't even keep an AD. When the AD job is viewed as undesirable, that says a lot. Let me be the first here to predict there will be several significant decommitments from their 2023 football recruiting class.

 

[The Public Enemy]

Yeah I get that. But 100 mill each just from the media deal? A billion split between 14 teams isn’t 100 million. Just from the media deal alone is what they have to show me. Right?

I think that is the floor ... at least a Billion in Media Rights alone a year which is mind blowing. But the Big Ten area is now literally Coast to Coast from the NYC TV Market to the LA TV Market with DC/Baltimore ... Chicago ... Philadelphia ... Pittsburgh ... Cleveland/Columbu/Cincinnati ... Minneapolis ... Milwaukee ... Indianapolis to add some spice to it and now you have TV and Streaming Services calling them.

People forget the highest rated Regular Season College Football game in 2021 in regards to viewership was a Big Ten Game which was Ohio State vs. Michigan.

 

[gojvc]

I would be fine with NIL if it was being monitored and used as intended. Now it's just an auction where parents, handlers and agents are selling kids to the highest bidder.

Agree. But NIL and conference realignment are really two different things. At least they could/should be.

 

[NamelessOne]

Stanford imo.

And if B1G takes more west schools, SEC is only place for the VA/NC/FL schools.

Clemson has been FB power, but they can't bring many more eyes with SEC SC already from SC.

That's where I disagree. Yes there are some teams you don't bother with if theres already a school in state. Like why take Texas if SEC already had AM? Because it's Texas. Same with Clemson. There's just some schools you can't pass on.

I sorta doubt Stanford gets the offer. Only because all the smoke surrounding this says Oregon and Washington have been put on standby until Notre Dame makes a decision. If they say yes, then it's most likely Oregon and Washington to the Big 10. And the other smoke has said Big Ten wants to branch into the south and get either NC or Virginia Tech. I just go with the reports man.

It does bring up an interesting scenario though. The third conference of leftovers is gonna be between PAC/ACC/Big 12. I kinda wonder if Stanford just opts out. Don't forget at one time Yale and Harvard were "football powers".

 

[BigRedMachineBigBlueNation]

Looks like the ACC may be in trouble. Good possibility UL may be left out of any power conference

They aren’t successful enough to over come their a lack of a footprint. UL is a regional school in a midsized state who lucked into a major conference.

 

[12375CAT]

If (whenever) the ACC is picked apart then my conference can invite what is left of the ACC if all the remaining P12 teams decide to stick together.

 

[The-Hack]

That leaves the outside 20 as
Oki St.
BYU

Where do you have Oregon State, Washington State and Stanford?

Are they completely left out?

 

[NamelessOne]

Where do you have Oregon State, Washington State and Stanford?

Are they completely left out?

Oregon St and Washington St are sadly screwed. Especially for Oregon St who was in the middle of building a new stadium. Big 12 wasn't even interested in them, let that sink in. Both are in talks now about joining the Mountain West conference.

Stanford is too difficult to call. I've seen Big Ten may offer them on their education value alone, but I sorta doubt it. Notre Dame declining kinda put the breaks on everything.

I could see Stanford sticking with whatever is left of the PAC or joining the MWC. Or even going down to the FCS.

 

[Girthang]

Just came from The Athletic ... an attorney went over the ACC GoR ... if the attorney and article is correct the ACC Schools from Notre to Clemson ain't going anywhere ... From the Article:

*It’s no accident that UCLA and USC will join the Big Ten in 2024. That is exactly when the Pac-12 grant of rights expires.

The ACC agreement Wilhelm had — which is linked below in this story — is the original grant of rights. He obtained it in 2014 through an open records request to the University of North Carolina while writing that journal article. The agreement he received appears to be the copy that then-UNC chancellor Holden Thorp signed and sent back to the conference. The document contained signature pages for each school’s CEO, which would allow the signed pages to be combined into one fully executed document. The agreement was drafted in 2013 just after Louisville announced it would join the league and Notre Dame joined in all sports except football. Members were nervous after the Big Ten poached charter member Maryland, and at the time, their desire to keep the league intact superseded any interest in future flexibility. They were scared of the league being pillaged, and they wanted stability. That original agreement ran through June 30, 2027. It was amended in 2016 when the ACC extended its media rights deal with Disney/ESPN. That most recent deal allowed for the creation of the ACC Network. Multiple sources who have seen both said the language in the agreements is similar.

The first would be for the school to simply leave the conference and leave its rights behind. This is likely a non-starter because without its rights, that school is of considerably less value to another league. The new league wouldn’t be allowed to sell that school’s rights to a network, which likely would put an end to any potential marriage.

The second option is for the school to sue to try to get the rights back. This also would be exceptionally risky. “That’s going to be incredibly expensive,” Wilhelm said, “and there is not a lot of certainty that a school is going to win.”

Hope the league dissolves and the grant of rights dissolves with it. In the ACC, that would require the majority of the members to want to leave. That seems unlikely. But what about the Big 12 and Oklahoma and Texas? The Pac-12 could respond to the loss of USC and UCLA by trying to scoop up Big 12 members. The leagues could merge and form an entirely new entity. If that happened, the Sooners and Longhorns could be free to go.

Staples: How would a school challenge a grant of rights? We asked a lawyer

There are four ways to challenge such a deal. Most of them involve a lot of money and patience.

theathletic.com

Then why couldn't the pac12, big12, and acc all merge and dissolve their current conferences?

 

[zwynn10]

JMO but I see Clemson, Notre Dame, FSU, Washington, NC St, Virginia Tech, UNC and Oregon making it in.

That leaves the outside 20 as
Oki St.
BYU
Iowa St
Arizona St
Kansas St
Pitt
Texas Tech
Baylor
Utah
West Virginia
UL
Miami
Virginia
UCF
Coloardo
TCU
Georgia Tech
Cincinnati
Syracuse
Cal

That 20 should be able to form a conference that would be somewhat competitive with the Big 2. At least I would think so

And for the Power 5's that didn't make it, I have some bad news for you.

I agree with your comments with one nitpick. I think Virginia finds its way into one of the two conferences. It is not because of their athletic prowess in the major sports but it is because: (1) there a several significant media markets in VA (DC area, Norfolk, Richmond, etc) not currently covered by the footprint of the two conferences; (2) VA is recognized as a top tier university and brings academic credibility to the conference; and (3) While VT has been better in sports than VA (especially football), my sense is that VA is the home school for Vrginia residents and watched on tvs in Virginia and VT is viewed as having more out-of-state students that gravitate to other places after graduation.

 

[LosGatos]

Oregon St and Washington St are sadly screwed. Especially for Oregon St who was in the middle of building a new stadium. Big 12 wasn't even interested in them, let that sink in. Both are in talks now about joining the Mountain West conference.

Stanford is too difficult to call. I've seen Big Ten may offer them on their education value alone, but I sorta doubt it. Notre Dame declining kinda put the breaks on everything.

I could see Stanford sticking with whatever is left of the PAC or joining the MWC. Or even going down to the FCS.

I see Stanford sticking with whatever is left of the PAC along with Cal. Either add a few teams to the remains of the PAC from the Mountain West or join the MWC.

 

[JHB4UK]

Then why couldn't the pac12, big12, and acc all merge and dissolve their current conferences?

Because the 14 ACC schools are under ESPN TV contract through 2035. At a cheap price. Why would ESPN help them create something that they would have to bid for, along with Fox & CBS & Apple?

 

[VT/UK Rondo]

I agree with your comments with one nitpick. I think Virginia finds its way into one of the two conferences. It is not because of their athletic prowess in the major sports but it is because: (1) there a several significant media markets in VA (DC area, Norfolk, Richmond, etc) not currently covered by the footprint of the two conferences; (2) VA is recognized as a top tier university and brings academic credibility to the conference; and (3) While VT has been better in sports than VA (especially football), my sense is that VA is the home school for Vrginia residents and watched on tvs in Virginia and VT is viewed as having more out-of-state students that gravitate to other places after graduation.

If UVA goes anywhere it will be B10. It suits their academic and Olympic sports culture more. They don't have a very strong football culture. VT culture is very "SECish" with football and fanbase but the decision makers seem very in line with the B10. So who knows
VT is bigger than UVA in the areas you mentioned, despite geographical location. VT despite the slump is still all about football and football rules the state from HS and up. UVA is more about lacrosse, soccer and basketball when they do good. I couldn't even imagine UVA in the SEC.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

I have read the ACC is almost to the point of disbanding the ACC and voiding the contract. If that happens I think the SEC will do what it takes to keep the BIG10 out of the deep south. So Miami, FSU, GT, Clemson, Louisville, and the 4 NC get invites and probably OKST. If that happen, every game would be a conference game.

SEC doesn't want Big teams playing in Atlanta origami ever other week.

 

[BigRedMachineBigBlueNation]

If UVA goes anywhere it will be B10. It suits their academic and Olympic sports culture more. They don't have a very strong football culture. VT culture is very "SECish" with football and fanbase but the decision makers seem very in line with the B10. So who knows
VT is bigger than UVA in the areas you mentioned, despite geographical location. VT despite the slump is still all about football and football rules the state from HS and up. UVA is more about lacrosse, soccer and basketball when they do good. I couldn't even imagine UVA in the SEC.

I said the same thing. VT feels more like an SEC school than UVA who is a public ivy (very academically minded.) UVA is closer to Michigan than Alabama.

 

[Bluesnky]

I have read the ACC is almost to the point of disbanding the ACC and voiding the contract. If that happens I think the SEC will do what it takes to keep the BIG10 out of the deep south. So Miami, FSU, GT, Clemson, Louisville, and the 4 NC get invites and probably OKST. If that happen, every game would be a conference game.

SEC doesn't want Big teams playing in Atlanta origami ever other week.

I don’t think there is any way that happens, because the only teams that I can see winding up with a better deal than they currently have with the ACC are the five or six tops that might be invited to the Big Ten or SEC. Plus, each team that leaves creates a windfall for the remaining teams because there will be fewer teams to split that TV money.

 

[Girthang]

Damn. I forgot about the Golden Bears. Would like to see California, Stanford, Oregon, and maybe OSU in the conference from out west.

 

[BigRedMachineBigBlueNation]

Damn. I forgot about the Golden Bears. Would like to see California, Stanford, Oregon, and maybe OSU in the conference from out west.

I’d hate for anyone to be left out. That is the worst part about this super conference