Looking over it, I think they should be ok. Looks like it's gonna be SEC and Big Ten and then one more frankenstein power conference. UL is big enough to be third tier at least. Assuming they do 20 teams in the new conference.
Is Louisville screwed?
- Thread starter wildcatglenn
- Start date
Alliance was dumb ... it allowed the Big Ten to do what they needed to do and get the tent poles of the West Coast ... USC and UCLA
Well, UL will be "ok" in the relative sense other schools like Arizona, or Oklahoma St, or Utah, or VA tech, or TCU, or Boston College will be "ok".
They can field teams. They can play football games. Fans can buy tickets.
But the brutal reality for all non-Big 10, non-SEC programs will be this: never winning a recruiting battle against a Power 2 school. Any good coaches will be snapped up and paid 2X more, from head coaches down to water girls. Any diamond in the rough recruits who show out as better than their recruiting ranking will portal to become free agents for SEC or Big 10. And never be in the discussion as a Natl Title contender, of probably even as playoff participant.
That's reality facing everyone, right now.
They can field teams. They can play football games. Fans can buy tickets.
But the brutal reality for all non-Big 10, non-SEC programs will be this: never winning a recruiting battle against a Power 2 school. Any good coaches will be snapped up and paid 2X more, from head coaches down to water girls. Any diamond in the rough recruits who show out as better than their recruiting ranking will portal to become free agents for SEC or Big 10. And never be in the discussion as a Natl Title contender, of probably even as playoff participant.
That's reality facing everyone, right now.
Wow ... you nailed it. College Conferences instead of a Power 5 to use a Spades -(Card Game) is now a P2 and a Possible
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I think this would be spot on before the NIL changes recently. NIL adds a wrinkle. I still think what you said is mostly true but at the end of the day a large NIL package is going to be one of the most important factors for recruits, and large conference payouts to schools are totally separate from NIL. Those can be used for facilities/coaches/etc. but not for actual players.
JMO but I see Clemson, Notre Dame, FSU, Washington, NC St, Virginia Tech, UNC and Oregon making it in.
That leaves the outside 20 as
Oki St.
BYU
Iowa St
Arizona St
Kansas St
Pitt
Texas Tech
Baylor
Utah
West Virginia
UL
Miami
Virginia
UCF
Coloardo
TCU
Georgia Tech
Cincinnati
Syracuse
Cal
That 20 should be able to form a conference that would be somewhat competitive with the Big 2. At least I would think so
And for the Power 5's that didn't make it, I have some bad news for you.
That leaves the outside 20 as
Oki St.
BYU
Iowa St
Arizona St
Kansas St
Pitt
Texas Tech
Baylor
Utah
West Virginia
UL
Miami
Virginia
UCF
Coloardo
TCU
Georgia Tech
Cincinnati
Syracuse
Cal
That 20 should be able to form a conference that would be somewhat competitive with the Big 2. At least I would think so
And for the Power 5's that didn't make it, I have some bad news for you.
As much as I hate U6 I don’t how anyone could think this scenario makes for a better sport.
I like your list. The only one I would change is drop Va. Tech and add Miami. Why? Because Tech is in BFE in Blacksburg and doesn't draw in the DC area, or any major market. Miami is a major market and south Florida is big business and a large recruiting base. Moving forward if all things are equal the decision makers will pick the largest markets over anything else. Yes, Arizona State is in Tempe (suburb of Phoenix), but not a large CFB market; and TCU is in the DFW area, but they're way down the list of importance to the locals. Beyond that, your left off Boston College, which is an historically above-average team, but not many in New England gets excited over college football.
Uh, yeah.
Nashville is the tenth fastest growing metro area in the US, and no way the SEC loses its most evident footprint there.
The only thing holding from saying Miami is I dont see the SEC wanting three florida teams, and I see FSU getting in before Miami. I honestly (and this might be looked down upon) dont think Miami is nowhere near the draw they were.
Also, the last news is the Big Ten has told Oregon and Washington they're waiting on an answer from Notre Dame. If Notre Dame declines, this might all be a moot point. It's possible the shuffling stops for awhile. But if Notre Dame accepts, then Washington, and Oregon get the invite along with someone else. Perhaps Virginia or VT.
The ACC is in bed with the B10 and have been for awhile. I wouldnt be surprised to see the 2 conferences merge.
They can’t sign enough talent because they don’t fund football like the rest of the league. The SEC could change that by implementing a floor of funding expectations.
Miami’s fans are as bad as the Vols, just a lot less of them.
The third conference after the P2 will be like the USFL. They’ll be able to use NiL to get some decent recruits and some kids may prefer to be a big fish in a small pond, but overall the talent level will be significantly below the P2 leagues.
Absolutely false. Virginia Tech is huge in the DC area market. It may not be geographically close, but it's the main "sports" school in Virginia. UVA is the fancier "smart" school. Virginia Tech is big throughout most of the state. Tons of Tech alumni in the Northern Virginia area around DC.
Yep. Lots of playmakers and splash recruits but the beef on the lines and the majority of skill postions will want to be at the grown up table.
FSU doesn't bring much to the table. Miami is in a better market, has better academics. But I suspect we both get an invite, don't think the SEC would want a Big10 school in Florida. Won't surprise me if GT and Louisville get an invite for the same reason.
I have to agree.
This is turning college football into NFC and AFC. NFL is great and all but the intimacy to college, rivalries, traditions, etc are going away. And just picking up free agents from Non Sec and big10 schools is sort of cheap feeling
I know it’s happening before our eyes…but not a big fan of it all
I’m actually fine with this new NIL era. College Sports is Big Business with the P2 and the Mid Level 3 ... everyone else was making a boatload of money so why not the athletes that entertain everyone.
With the Big Ten Move Sports Business Journal is now projecting the Big Ten Schools will make $100 Million Annually per school from their media deals. Kind of blows away what the SEC apparently is going to get with the addition of Texas and Oklahoma.
The Big10 has their hands full with Washington, Oregon and ND. They can’t offer everyone. GaTech and UL are small potatoes brother.
About double the Big 10 income because of the addition of 2 -4 teams? 100 million a year. I have to see how the math works on that one
SoCal is definitely the media market mother-lode but I don’t know if UCLA and USC will make everyone suddenly want to pay for the B1G channel.
This might answer your question
The report says that it seems certain the talks will continue through August, with a deal now very likely to eclipse $1 billion:
Apple has delved into live sports on both Apple TV+ and its TV platform recently. The company has a deal to show Friday Nigh Baseball exclusively to Apple TV+ customers through 2022. It has also recently announced an exclusive streaming deal with the MLS that will run for the next 10 years and cost it $2.5 billion.
Apple is also reportedly a front-runner for NFL Sunday Ticket and is said to be one of three suitors that have submitted bids and are awaiting a response.
Apple restarts talks with Big Ten following USC, UCLA news
A new report says Apple has reached out to the Big Ten about media rights following the news USC and UCLA are joining the league.
www.imore.com
I've said this is evolving to a big 2 conferences of SEC & Big 10, but the real drivers are ESPN & Fox.
Going forward those 2 will show SEC (espn/abc) and Big 10 (Fox/FS1) all day & night Saturdays. That's the only teams their pre shows will talk about, the only players.
A kid choosing between UL and UK will know going to UK means national TV week after week. Going to ul means acc network or raycom regional tv.
B1G already frankenstein going from LA to NYC & DC suburbs.
I suspect that if SEC went to 20 schools that Barnhart would favor a 6 or 7 games conference schedule.
Stanford imo.
And if B1G takes more west schools, SEC is only place for the VA/NC/FL schools.
Clemson has been FB power, but they can't bring many more eyes with SEC SC already from SC.
louisville was in missouri valley conference never ovc
Charter member baby. Know your school’s history.
OVC History - Ohio Valley Conference
• Updated OVC Bragging Points The Ohio Valley Conference continues to build on the success that has made it the nation's eighth-oldest NCAA Division I conference. The
ovcsports.com
Just came from The Athletic ... an attorney went over the ACC GoR ... if the attorney and article is correct the ACC Schools from Notre to Clemson ain't going anywhere ... From the Article:
*It’s no accident that UCLA and USC will join the Big Ten in 2024. That is exactly when the Pac-12 grant of rights expires.
The ACC agreement Wilhelm had — which is linked below in this story — is the original grant of rights. He obtained it in 2014 through an open records request to the University of North Carolina while writing that journal article. The agreement he received appears to be the copy that then-UNC chancellor Holden Thorp signed and sent back to the conference. The document contained signature pages for each school’s CEO, which would allow the signed pages to be combined into one fully executed document. The agreement was drafted in 2013 just after Louisville announced it would join the league and Notre Dame joined in all sports except football. Members were nervous after the Big Ten poached charter member Maryland, and at the time, their desire to keep the league intact superseded any interest in future flexibility. They were scared of the league being pillaged, and they wanted stability. That original agreement ran through June 30, 2027. It was amended in 2016 when the ACC extended its media rights deal with Disney/ESPN. That most recent deal allowed for the creation of the ACC Network. Multiple sources who have seen both said the language in the agreements is similar.
The first would be for the school to simply leave the conference and leave its rights behind. This is likely a non-starter because without its rights, that school is of considerably less value to another league. The new league wouldn’t be allowed to sell that school’s rights to a network, which likely would put an end to any potential marriage.
The second option is for the school to sue to try to get the rights back. This also would be exceptionally risky. “That’s going to be incredibly expensive,” Wilhelm said, “and there is not a lot of certainty that a school is going to win.”
Hope the league dissolves and the grant of rights dissolves with it. In the ACC, that would require the majority of the members to want to leave. That seems unlikely. But what about the Big 12 and Oklahoma and Texas? The Pac-12 could respond to the loss of USC and UCLA by trying to scoop up Big 12 members. The leagues could merge and form an entirely new entity. If that happened, the Sooners and Longhorns could be free to go.
theathletic.com
*It’s no accident that UCLA and USC will join the Big Ten in 2024. That is exactly when the Pac-12 grant of rights expires.
The ACC agreement Wilhelm had — which is linked below in this story — is the original grant of rights. He obtained it in 2014 through an open records request to the University of North Carolina while writing that journal article. The agreement he received appears to be the copy that then-UNC chancellor Holden Thorp signed and sent back to the conference. The document contained signature pages for each school’s CEO, which would allow the signed pages to be combined into one fully executed document. The agreement was drafted in 2013 just after Louisville announced it would join the league and Notre Dame joined in all sports except football. Members were nervous after the Big Ten poached charter member Maryland, and at the time, their desire to keep the league intact superseded any interest in future flexibility. They were scared of the league being pillaged, and they wanted stability. That original agreement ran through June 30, 2027. It was amended in 2016 when the ACC extended its media rights deal with Disney/ESPN. That most recent deal allowed for the creation of the ACC Network. Multiple sources who have seen both said the language in the agreements is similar.
The first would be for the school to simply leave the conference and leave its rights behind. This is likely a non-starter because without its rights, that school is of considerably less value to another league. The new league wouldn’t be allowed to sell that school’s rights to a network, which likely would put an end to any potential marriage.
The second option is for the school to sue to try to get the rights back. This also would be exceptionally risky. “That’s going to be incredibly expensive,” Wilhelm said, “and there is not a lot of certainty that a school is going to win.”
Hope the league dissolves and the grant of rights dissolves with it. In the ACC, that would require the majority of the members to want to leave. That seems unlikely. But what about the Big 12 and Oklahoma and Texas? The Pac-12 could respond to the loss of USC and UCLA by trying to scoop up Big 12 members. The leagues could merge and form an entirely new entity. If that happened, the Sooners and Longhorns could be free to go.
Staples: How would a school challenge a grant of rights? We asked a lawyer
There are four ways to challenge such a deal. Most of them involve a lot of money and patience.
theathletic.com
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Yes, Louisville is screwed. Maybe the GoR deal keeps the ACC together for an extra decade, but by that time the SEC and the Big 10 will be making so much more money than everyone else it will not matter.
Below is link to the top rated college football games of last season, quick math of me scrolling through shows 106 regular season games had 2 million+ viewers - 87 of those involved a team that is either currently in the Big 10/SEC or will be by 2025. And of the 19 games that didnt involve Big 10/SEC the only 2 that reached 3 million viewers involved Notre Dame. The matchups the leagues will be able to put together on a weekly basis with the new additions will make the other conferences even less of a draw very soon, and if the 2 leagues really wanted to be dicks about it they could just stop scheduling everyone else. By the time 2036 rolls around even the Clemsons and FSUs of the world might be in permanent AAA status.
2021 College Football TV Ratings
Below is link to the top rated college football games of last season, quick math of me scrolling through shows 106 regular season games had 2 million+ viewers - 87 of those involved a team that is either currently in the Big 10/SEC or will be by 2025. And of the 19 games that didnt involve Big 10/SEC the only 2 that reached 3 million viewers involved Notre Dame. The matchups the leagues will be able to put together on a weekly basis with the new additions will make the other conferences even less of a draw very soon, and if the 2 leagues really wanted to be dicks about it they could just stop scheduling everyone else. By the time 2036 rolls around even the Clemsons and FSUs of the world might be in permanent AAA status.
2021 College Football TV Ratings
I would be fine with NIL if it was being monitored and used as intended. Now it's just an auction where parents, handlers and agents are selling kids to the highest bidder.
My thing is for the most part it always been that way. But I more than understand what you are saying
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