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Is a Ref's Record with a Team Factored into NCAA Assignments? (Dorsey/UK)

Wildcat Sheli

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Feb 26, 2016
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This is not a “blame the refs” post. This is not a personal attack. I am not even implying the outcome of our last game, our Sweet Sixteen matchup vs. UT on March 28, would have been different. I am simply curious about the assignment of referees in the NCAA Tournament.

Doug Shows, Lamar Simpson and Brian Dorsey officiated the game. Thanks to @JPScott we have an extensive history of referees for UK games.

Among active referees who have called more than 3 of our games, Brian Dorsey is the referee with the lowest winning percentage for UK at 33.3% (4-8).
[Eric Curry and Larry Spaulding also have this 33.3% percentage, but they have only officiated 3 of our games, most recently 2021 and 2022, respectively. Frank Harvey and Edwin Young only officiated a single game each in 2022 that we lost, so their 0% is not relevant for my question. For examples of how far below the norm this 33.3% is, our winning percentages under now-retired John Higgins was 44.4% (iykyk), and still-active Keith Kimble (UNC 2017) is 47.6%, and those are among the lowest compared to others.]

By the stats, for every three games Dorsey officiates, we will likely lose two. This past season, of the 4 games he officiated, we won 2 (WKU and Illinois) and lost 2 (Ohio State and UT, both paired with D Shows). Dorsey was also on the whistle last year when we lost to Oakland, and in 2019 when we lost to Auburn in the Elite 8 in OT.
UT won all four of their Dorsey-officiated games this season (Montana, Norfolk State, LSU, UK).

Did those making the assignments know they assigned an official where UK statistically loses more of the time than with any other official? If yes, why would such an assignment be made in an important game like this? If no, I wonder if this is ever a factor for any team with a similar officiating history?

I don’t know if history is taken into account for assignments; does anyone here know or have insight into this process? I’m genuinely curious.
 
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I will give a shot to answer OP from two different angles:

A. Conference
The Conference referees are selected by the conference commissioner which is paid and follows the direction of the conference. So if a conference wants a certain style of whistle they can do that. The refs are selected by commissioner and the number of games assigned based on the evaluation they receive. The higher evaluation you receive the more games you get. Each conference has a list of referee from refs are selected. If power 5 conference, typically the refs do mostly college games, as the pay is very good. In lower conferences the pool of refs are made of refs that also do HS games since the pay is not as good.

B. NCAA tournament
The selection is done by NCAA Officiating Committee. The NCAA uses evaluations, along with video review and grading systems, to select top-performing officials from across Division I. Of course , each conference commissioner pushes their top guys.
 
Doug Shows was assigned to the UK/Louisville Final Four game in 2012. Even though he was on a 20 out of 21 game streak of calling Kentucky wins.

Therefore the NCAA obviously was choosing the officials they knew would get us a national championship. If Kentucky has any honor, we would admit this and take down our banner.
 
Doug Shows was assigned to the UK/Louisville Final Four game in 2012. Even though he was on a 20 out of 21 game streak of calling Kentucky wins.

Therefore the NCAA obviously was choosing the officials they knew would get us a national championship. If Kentucky has any honor, we would admit this and take down our banner.
I mean we were the odds on favorite that year with AD. Makes you wonder sometimes how much influence Vegas and gambling really does have.

I know your post was tongue in cheek but it did make me ponder a bit.
 
1) these are too small a sample sizes to make any true assessment. For example, on the first one where UK had a winning % of 33% (in 12 games). The 95% confidence interval of that (using the Clopper-Pearson exact method) is 11.3% to 64.6%.

2) you are not taking into account the opponents. Say Ref1 officiates 10 games UK plays in Rupp vs "cupcakes", while Ref2 officiates 10 games UK plays on the Road vs other top 20 teams. They will likely have 2 very different UK-winning-%'s.
 
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I do find it quite strange that we always end up with at least one SEC reaming ref in games S16 or better, sometimes 32. There are 4 other power conferences with totally different ref pools - how is it we end up with an SEC ref nearly every time we play in the NCAAT? I haven't pulled stats, so obviously my commentary here is purely anecdotal / qualitative. But I think if I did dig around on the history site we'd see a regular occurrence of SEC refs in the NCAAT than seems statistically reasonable.

But even more curious - internet sleuths need to get to work on the social relationships between the NCAA ref front office, these refs, and then dig around into any connections (golfer, biz interests, wives are best friends, etc.) between these refs and Higgins.

At the start of the year I had hoped the ref crap would have left with Cal, but was surprised to see some of the same WTF calls with mellow Pope at the helm. And it continued so far that even Pope - Mr. Mild Positive Mormon - started dropping ref comments in interviews and getting more and more worked up on the sideline. This just convinced me that these refs are going to piss on UK fans because of Higgins - they are a brotherhood and will never let that crap fade away. I don't expect it will change until these older refs in the Higgins fraternity retire and move on.
 
Doug Shows was assigned to the UK/Louisville Final Four game in 2012. Even though he was on a 20 out of 21 game streak of calling Kentucky wins.

Therefore the NCAA obviously was choosing the officials they knew would get us a national championship. If Kentucky has any honor, we would admit this and take down our banner.
I think for some refs, how they call UK games changed after March 2017.
 
1) these are too small a sample sizes to make any true assessment. For example, on the first one where UK had a winning % of 33% (in 12 games). The 95% confidence interval of that (using the Clopper-Pearson exact method) is 11.3% to 64.6%.

2) you are not taking into account the opponents. Say Ref1 officiates 10 games UK plays in Rupp vs "cupcakes", while Ref2 officiates 10 games UK plays on the Road vs other top 20 teams. They will likely have 2 very different UK-winning-%'s.

Agree. Good points. The other thing about referee percentages is that there are three referees. Even if a particular ref wanted to tilt a game in favor of a particular team over another, the other two refs would exert some influence towards neutrality.

Not saying it's impossible for a particular referee to influence a game, but the stats are even less relevant than they might appear when looking at a single referee to 'prove' bias.
 
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Agree. Good points. The other thing about referee percentages is that there are three referees. Even if a particular ref wanted to tilt a game in favor of a particular team over another, the other two refs would exert some influence towards neutrality.

Not saying it's impossible for a particular referee to influence a game, but the stats are even less relevant than they might appear when looking at a single referee to 'prove' bias.
In the Florida Houston game.... First half, refs weren't calling anything. Houston fouled to keep Florida guards from driving. It took Florida completely out of their game plan and they looked lost. Who wouldn't be if you can't move on offense? After the half they came out calling everything and Florida started getting more confident.
This is how games are controlled. It's easy to see as well.
Our Duke game this year was the exact same way. Duke looked like they were gonna run us because the refs weren't calling anything. 2nd half? Different ballgame because it was called correctly
 
Is a referee's record with a particular team factored into assignment decisions? Yes, history would certainly support that hypothesis.
They need to let teams ban refs from calling their games. There are a few out there that really seem to have a grudge against UK. It doesn't hurt anyone to allow a team to hold a ref accountable. Everyone else in the loop is held accountable to some degree but refs never have to "pay" for a horrible performance.
 
In the Florida Houston game.... First half, refs weren't calling anything. Houston fouled to keep Florida guards from driving. It took Florida completely out of their game plan and they looked lost. Who wouldn't be if you can't move on offense? After the half they came out calling everything and Florida started getting more confident.
This is how games are controlled. It's easy to see as well.
Our Duke game this year was the exact same way. Duke looked like they were gonna run us because the refs weren't calling anything. 2nd half? Different ballgame because it was called correctly
In that game the refs clearly decided as a group, or were told, to tighten things up.
Thats fine, IF....they then told the coaches they were going to tighten things up in the 2nd half.
 
In that game the refs clearly decided as a group, or were told, to tighten things up.
Thats fine, IF....they then told the coaches they were going to tighten things up in the 2nd half.
Because of betting the way I see things has ruined the fun of being a college basketball fan. I think it was set out from the beginning it was going to be that way. They were going to have a close game and that was the only way it could happen. To the average fan that doesn't get it just looks like Houston fell apart and was definitely the 2nd best team. When in reality if those teams go out and the game is called correctly both halves, Florida probably wins that game by 15+. Happens in the sec daily
 
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You're talking about a group that lets the rooferee continue to work. So i doubt they care about much of anything.
🤔And was awarded “Men’s College Official of the Year” in 2017, the same year as the UNC debacle…🤷‍♀️
A good enough ref to be named as the official of the year. But in games with Kentucky 1 horrendous call against UK after another.
 
I mean we were the odds on favorite that year with AD. Makes you wonder sometimes how much influence Vegas and gambling really does have.

I know your post was tongue in cheek but it did make me ponder a bit.
We were neck and neck with uncheats. Everything opened up when Kendall whatever broke his arm.
 
The NCAA tournament pairings and ref selection should all be computerized. Get the biased humans out of it and let AI fairly and accurately make the decisions. I would love to see the results. 😀
 
Is it too much to ask for refs to be consistent with their calls??? I guess it is, because it's rare to get a game called consistently. I'd prefer to let the players play a little bit because it allows for a better flow for the game, and more enjoyable to watch. But I don't want a hockey game either or a whistle every 30-40 seconds so there 50 fouls called.
 
They need to let teams ban refs from calling their games. There are a few out there that really seem to have a grudge against UK. It doesn't hurt anyone to allow a team to hold a ref accountable. Everyone else in the loop is held accountable to some degree but refs never have to "pay" for a horrible performance.
JPScott would be the authority on this but I seem to remember at one time you could blackball maybe 2 ref's per season. I Joe B blackballed Paul Galvan at least once.
 
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