Here is what I would tell him:
I am going to assume we win tomorrow and lose to UL, and finish 5-7. So, Stoops will be back, but if I am MB conducting the year end review, knowing I have basically painted myself into a corner by prematurely extending and way overpaying Stoops for the next few years (and he has) and due to contract terms, cannot realistically let him go (unless the floor drops out from under the program, which I will get to), here are the metrics I would look at for Stoops in 2016-2018.
Here is what I would tell Coach Stoops: To keep your job, you have to win 21 games in the next three years. Period.
First, here is how you get there: Win all nine games against the OOC powder puffs on the schedule. No more losses to Western, and further, no more nail biters against the likes of EKU and ULL, who we had down 33-10 in the 3rd quarter this season. In short, we are “posed to be SEC”, when you play someone in a lower level conference, we need to win and win easy.
Second, Louisville, Miss State and Vandy. We have nine games every three years against what should be relatively equal programs. You have to win 5 of those 9. That gives you 14 of the 21 wins right there. In Stoops first 3 seasons though, we are 1-7 against these three programs, and likely to be 1-8. That is simply not acceptable.
Then, finally, you have to win 7 of the remaining 18 games in three years against the other five teams in the SEC East, plus three from the West, including next year in Tuscaloosa, which, lets be frank, is a 99.9% sure loss. But still, you have beaten USC and Missouri 3 of 6, which is good. And to be successful and retained as the UK coach, you have to beat Florida, Tennessee, LSU, Auburn, Georgia, etc. at least some of the time. Brooks had four wins over those teams in his last 4 years, it is not impossible at Kentucky, it can be done and should be expected in order to keep a $3M/year job.
Now, I did not just pick 21 regular season wins out of my backside as the bogey to measure performance of the UK head coach.
Look at our previous coaches. Joker had five or six wins in 2 of the 3 years he coached. Brooks did it his last four years, Morriss won 7 in one of two seasons, Mumme won at least five his first three years at UK before cratering in year four. Going further back, if you assume we would have scheduled a total pushover for an easy win for game 12 in the years where we only played 11, even Bill Curry went 4-7 his last two years, and therefore, would have won 5 games in 5 of the seven seasons he coached, and Claiborne actually won at least 5 every year from 1983-1989.
Point being is that Stoops so far has done about the same, more or less, as any other coach we have hired since 1982. So, historically speaking, it is no great accomplishment to go 5-7 consistently at Kentucky. Under present circumstances. I would suggest we could hire almost any competent coach and expect to win 4-6 games annually, because the last SEVEN UK head coaches have done so.
[I did not consider bowl wins in the above analysis, given that we have only won three bowls since 1984, do not consider them statistically significant.]
Finally, if I am MB, there is the outlier scenario I would discuss with Coach Stoops. First, if Stoops were to win 8 or 9 games in 2016, or 2017, or pull off a NYD win in the Outback or Capital One Bowl, we probably have the right guy, and that goes a long way to signing another long extension. Conversely, if you go 4-8 next two years, or 3-9 in ANY year, you are done, no matter what the buyout is.
Anyway, FWIW, that is my take on how the end of the year review should go between AD and head coach.
I am going to assume we win tomorrow and lose to UL, and finish 5-7. So, Stoops will be back, but if I am MB conducting the year end review, knowing I have basically painted myself into a corner by prematurely extending and way overpaying Stoops for the next few years (and he has) and due to contract terms, cannot realistically let him go (unless the floor drops out from under the program, which I will get to), here are the metrics I would look at for Stoops in 2016-2018.
Here is what I would tell Coach Stoops: To keep your job, you have to win 21 games in the next three years. Period.
First, here is how you get there: Win all nine games against the OOC powder puffs on the schedule. No more losses to Western, and further, no more nail biters against the likes of EKU and ULL, who we had down 33-10 in the 3rd quarter this season. In short, we are “posed to be SEC”, when you play someone in a lower level conference, we need to win and win easy.
Second, Louisville, Miss State and Vandy. We have nine games every three years against what should be relatively equal programs. You have to win 5 of those 9. That gives you 14 of the 21 wins right there. In Stoops first 3 seasons though, we are 1-7 against these three programs, and likely to be 1-8. That is simply not acceptable.
Then, finally, you have to win 7 of the remaining 18 games in three years against the other five teams in the SEC East, plus three from the West, including next year in Tuscaloosa, which, lets be frank, is a 99.9% sure loss. But still, you have beaten USC and Missouri 3 of 6, which is good. And to be successful and retained as the UK coach, you have to beat Florida, Tennessee, LSU, Auburn, Georgia, etc. at least some of the time. Brooks had four wins over those teams in his last 4 years, it is not impossible at Kentucky, it can be done and should be expected in order to keep a $3M/year job.
Now, I did not just pick 21 regular season wins out of my backside as the bogey to measure performance of the UK head coach.
Look at our previous coaches. Joker had five or six wins in 2 of the 3 years he coached. Brooks did it his last four years, Morriss won 7 in one of two seasons, Mumme won at least five his first three years at UK before cratering in year four. Going further back, if you assume we would have scheduled a total pushover for an easy win for game 12 in the years where we only played 11, even Bill Curry went 4-7 his last two years, and therefore, would have won 5 games in 5 of the seven seasons he coached, and Claiborne actually won at least 5 every year from 1983-1989.
Point being is that Stoops so far has done about the same, more or less, as any other coach we have hired since 1982. So, historically speaking, it is no great accomplishment to go 5-7 consistently at Kentucky. Under present circumstances. I would suggest we could hire almost any competent coach and expect to win 4-6 games annually, because the last SEVEN UK head coaches have done so.
[I did not consider bowl wins in the above analysis, given that we have only won three bowls since 1984, do not consider them statistically significant.]
Finally, if I am MB, there is the outlier scenario I would discuss with Coach Stoops. First, if Stoops were to win 8 or 9 games in 2016, or 2017, or pull off a NYD win in the Outback or Capital One Bowl, we probably have the right guy, and that goes a long way to signing another long extension. Conversely, if you go 4-8 next two years, or 3-9 in ANY year, you are done, no matter what the buyout is.
Anyway, FWIW, that is my take on how the end of the year review should go between AD and head coach.
