I don't think there's any way on Earth any Cal team outside of '10, '12, '15, or possibly '17 would have been ready for Duke or Gonzaga as they were when they played them this year. And the last five seasons including this season Cal is no longer capable of putting together '10, '12, '15, or '17 -level squads imho.
I think those two would absolutely have been losses.
I think Clemson would still have been a loss because Cal teams definitely don't have that toughness early, combined with Clemson executing quite well even if they did also make more than their fair share of blunders that the refs just also didn't call.
In his favor though, there is a certain type of toughness that Cal does tend to instill in his generally post-weak teams after a Clemson-type physical manhandling. I think that with that plus a style of play that is actually just better suited, Cal would have had pretty good odds of beating Ohio State.
Florida is also a team manned and playing on a level that post-2019 Cal teams generally don't rise to. However, they do play a style clean enough that puts them in a category where most recent Cal teams are good for at least one-to-two wins a season that they don't seem to be up for in advance. So I'll give them Florida as a hypothetical possibility.
So at a maximum one marquee win at this point (UF) two decent wins (UL and Ohio State).
But also at a minimum three losses because in addition to having pretty much no chance against either Duke or Gonzaga, a Cal team would have been essentially guaranteed one bonehead loss minimum. Wright State, Western, and Georgia State are all good candidates for that. 1-2 from that group wouldn't be impossible although I don't think Cal lets them go 0-3. But I do not think there's any strong chance Cal gets out of the whole bunny portion of our nonconference schedule without pulling a Cal.
So imo 11-3 at very best with one Junior marquee win total.
In the real world we are a 2 seed right now, 3 at very worst; in that hypothetical we'd be like a 5 seed hoping for a 4.
Had he stayed here, Cal would be doing a little better and we'd be doing a lot worse.