How many losses this year?

[Jkwo]

3-5 in the regular season. Hopefully none after that

 

[kyjeff1]

But that isn't "proof" of anything.

Different teams and players.

Same coach...but again, the "Cal will never win a title" refrain was fairly loud back in October 2011.

I don't understand this fetish we have for prescribing the entire season before we play a game. We don't even know what the rotation is going to look like and some folks already know how we'll do in the NCAA Tournament? That's silly to me.

Well, the method of using Cal's previous UK teams as a benchmark seems to be working because it's been pretty consistent.
-Get to E8, lose
-bring in a #1 recruiting class
-get to final four, lose
-bring in a #1 recruiting class
-go 38-2 and win title
-bring in #1 recruiting class
-struggle most of season
-start to gel
-suffer catastrophic injury, NIT
-bring in #1 recruiting class, fans predict 40-0
-lose 10 games
-go to title game, lose
-bring in #1 recruiting class, fans predict 40-0
-get to final four, lose
-rinse and repeat.

You know after you experience season's like that you start to see a pattern. No matter how great these freshman are it tskes a special group of guys to mesh well but either way it's hard to do and the data that we have from the last 6 season's can be used as a predictor of what could happen. Use what you want to use I'll use what I think is the best criteria and that is previous results from Cal's other great teams.
But seriously though, if you don't like the idea of predicting how the team will do why even post in the thread ? It's just something fun to do while we wait for the games to start.

 

[bucsrule8872]

If we are major injury free, I think we make another Final Four, and have a great shot at the title.

I think we are due a "major injury free" season. Haven't had one since 2012. No coincidence we won the title that year. Got to keep your top guys from getting hurt to have a shot at the title. No matter how deep you are, talented you are, and how good your coach is, you rarely overcome a major injury.

That is something Cal's critics often fail to understand.

 

[Aike]

I put the over/under at 5 regular season losses. No more than 2 losses out of conference, and no more than 3 losses in conference.

If we have this kind of season, we will go into the tournament as a 1 or 2 seed and one of the favorites. Anything better than this will be a spectacular result, imo.

 

[UK_Johnny24]

Yeah well we had "literally everything" in 2011 and 2014. Heck, 2014 was stacked, we didn't see 10 losses happening there either. This team is just as young. But it has one X factor that separates 16 from the other two teams: a sophomore Tyler Ulis. Is he good enough to overcome the problems that 11 and 14 had and prevent a bunch of losses? We will see but it won't be easy.

2014 had issues we didn't see coming. Team chemistry, and the twins being so overrated. Jamal Murray, Isaiah Briscoe, and Tyler Ulis are so much better than the Twins and JY its not even comparable. You'll see what I'm talking about here pretty soon. You absolutely cant compare this team to those 2.

 

[why_not_kentucky]

I think 5 going into the tournament.

Sounds about right.

 

[CloverforkCat]

6 total losses, but will make the FF again !

 

[kyjeff1]

2014 had issues we didn't see coming. Team chemistry, and the twins being so overrated. Jamal Murray, Isaiah Briscoe, and Tyler Ulis are so much better than the Twins and JY its not even comparable. You'll see what I'm talking about here pretty soon. You absolutely cant compare this team to those 2.

I know we are talking about different players but these players can have chemistry issues just like the 13 team and the 14 team did. In fact, with 3 point guards in the lineup at one time you can see how that could cause some jealousy issues from the 2 guards that don't get to handle the ball as often.
All I'm trying to do is temper my expectations and not fall into the same old trap again. I really thought 13 was going to be a great year, I absolutely love Nerlens Noel, he played so hard but as we all know that was a terrible ending to a season. Then we all swore 13/14 was a title team, they were stacked. Julius Randle, James Young, the twins, WCS, Poy, Lee. Man how could you think THAT team would suffer 10 losses? The ending was exciting, should have been a title but I'm proud of the run they went on. Then last years epic squad ended in disappointing fashion. So how do we trust this team? It's full of just as many unknowns as the 13 and 14 teams.
We say, "well the twins were overrated ". What if Skal, Murray and Briscoe are overrated? It could happen. Doubtful but possible.

 

[BucN1Cat]

OK we've seen the Cats for the first time. How many losses do you predict on the year and how far do they get in the NCAAT?

My prediction: 7 losses and NCAA Final 4. I think they take a few losses early and by the end of the year they have their dribble drive fine tuned.

I'd say 8-10 losses. It's gonna take a while for this team to jell. I think they will be solid defensively to start and the offense will take time to catch up.

 

[weatherbird]

I love Cal. Just wouldn't take his last 6 years over K's last 6 years because I place more value in winning titles. What seperates K from Cal is that when K gets to the Final Four he brings it home.

And for those saying "stop complaining and expecting a national title every year", I don't. But I would agree with Mr. John Calipari himself who said "I should have won 3 titles already at UK". Again, he said that, not me, and I happen to agree with him.

Why do I continue to bring this up? Because it serves my point and opinion that Cal is good enough to get you to the end, just not good enough to win it all, unless he has a transcendent superstar like Anthony Davis. Even then its not guaranteed. He had Derek Rose which no one had ever seen a guard with that kind of strength and athleticism before and Cal squandered it away in the end. Last season he had KAT, who is already proving that he will be a dominant player in the NBA as he has set the world on fire in his first 2 games, and he still didn't win it. 3 straight shot clock violations, a Tyler Ulis hanging out on the bench, and again, "squandered away". Cal is amazing no doubt, great recruiter, marketer, and a damn fine bench coach, but his MO is to squander it away in the end. That will be his legacy. Mark my words, when he leaves UK there will be more people saying "wow what could have been" then saying anything else. Cal has had more talent than anyone in the country over the last 6 years. 2 first over all picks, multiple first rounders, etc etc and only one national title to show for it.

Hell, look at Cal's year in 2013. He lost in the first round of the NIT to Robert Morris. So many on here want to say well we lost Nerlens Noel. He was one freaking player! You mean to tell me that Cal' loses one player out of all those McDonald's AA's and suddenly he can't even make the tournament? He still had multiple 5-stars on that team and lost in the first round of the NIT?

I predict this team to be taken out in the elite eight as I believe by just sheer chance we are due a year where we don't quite live up to expectation. Thats my prediction and you read it here first. Of course if we make the Final Four it will be squandered away for another year of heart break. Cal is great, but he is Tarkinian all over again.

I see you managed to not answer the question about 2 $100 bills, or 1 $100 bill with 3 more $50 bills. I struggle to understand why you think a coach who makes 4 final fours in 6 years chokes, while another coach that loses to double digits seeds as often as he makes a final four is brilliant. I mean you do realize that Cal has only once lost to a lower seeded team at UK in the ncaa tournament, right? How many times has K lost to lower seeded teams in the last 6 years? I can't fault people who prefer 2 titles over one. But I can't understand why people tend to think a coach who hasn't lost in the first weekend, and only once lost to a lower seed is so much worse than a coach that does exactly that consistently. I will add that the one time Cal lost at UK in the ncaa tournament to a lower seed, it was to a 2 seed as a 1 seed in the elite eight.

 

[Bodvar Bjarki]

I'll with go 35-5 and hardware.

5 sounds about right.

 

[KyFaninNC]

Don't really care as long as they bring home #9. I had rather be 30-10 with a NC than 38-1.

 

[d2atTech]

I'll with go 35-5 and hardware.

agree with you. this feels like a championship year. just my feeling.

 

[Big Cat fan]

2

 

[zannmann]

I say 4-6 losses.

 

[Joneslab]

Losing 5 or 6 seems to be the norm for college teams who have the requisite talent to win a championship.

The best non-UK team I've seen in Rupp--that second Florida title team--lost 6, I think. The teams that win 2 or 3 and the teams that lose 8 or 9 (the two UCONN teams) are slight outliers.

I went back and averaged the number of losses championship teams have had since 2000. Came out to 5.4.

 

[St.PatterSoN-54-]

40 losses.


All for the bad guys.

 

[FiveStarCat]

Just win enough to get a 1 or 2 seed and I like our guard play to do some serious damage in the tournament barring injury.

 

[ganner918]

If we are major injury free, I think we make another Final Four, and have a great shot at the title.

I think we are due a "major injury free" season. Haven't had one since 2012. No coincidence we won the title that year. Got to keep your top guys from getting hurt to have a shot at the title. No matter how deep you are, talented you are, and how good your coach is, you rarely overcome a major injury.

That is something Cal's critics often fail to understand.

Exactly, it always takes some luck to win a title. If it's Marquis Teague getting hurt instead of Kendall Marshall, maybe UNC wins the 2012 title. If Poythress doesn't get hurt, maybe we win the title last year.