How can EJ Montgomery go from serviceable to star?
Justin Rowland • CatsIllustrated.com
@RowlandRIVALS
Kentucky forward EJ Montgomery announced weeks ago that he was entering his name into the 2019 NBA Draft but more recently his name did not appear on the NBA Combine list.
Montgomery's decision to enter the draft was immediately greeted by collective, "What?" by certain segments of the college hoops pundit and fan worlds, but the appropriate correction was then provided: "Why wouldn't he?"
Our purpose here is to evaluate Montgomery and his potential to move from a serviceable college big man to a star or something close to it. And that might be important for UK's championship hopes, assuming he returns to Lexington for a second year.
While the Wildcat front line will include Bucknell transfer Nate Sestina and probably Nick Richards, there are plenty of questions after that. Jaden McDaniels is more of a wing and things look more up in the air between UK and the five-star prospect anyways. While Virginia Tech grad transfer target Kyree Blackshear has been linked to Kentucky, without too much in the way of explanatory detail, Rivals.com's Corey Evans has reported that he's leaning towards keeping his name in the draft.
Kentucky's 2019-20 backcourt appears to be loaded. It might not be loaded with proven superstars, but between Tyrese Maxey, a likely standout, other new additions and the returning duo of Ashton Hagans and Immanuel Quickley, UK will have plenty of options at the guard and wing spots.
But what of that front line?
At best, Sestina could aspire to be Reid Travis in terms of impactfulness. That would be quite good. As for Richards, it would be wise not to bank on too much until he proves he'll provide it consistently, and John Calipari proves he will play him in big moments.
For now at least, that leaves Montgomery as the difference between Kentucky being a backcourt-and-wing loaded team with some some questions up front and a truly complete team with multiple potential stars at every spot on the court and a difference maker inside on both ends of the court.
Montgomery's development from Year 1 to 2 is that important. It could be the single biggest factor in determining whether Kentucky is a championship frontrunner or one among many teams that get some plugs during the bracket shows.
This is worth talking about because Montgomery's potential is vast. But also because his freshman season left quite a bit to be desired.
His five-star prospect status made sense when you project his rebounds per game (in 15 minutes on average) out to 40 or in some of his brightest moments, such as his 11 point, 13 rebound effort against South Carolina.
Montgomery looked like a five-star performer and not just prospect when he did two things on the court in 2018-19: On offensive rebound put back attempts and in transition.
According to our analytic providers and partners at Synergy Sports, Montgomery produced a whopping 1.303 points per possession on those put back attempts. That way of scoring will naturally produce a higher than average scoring clip because many of those attempts are dunks, layups or uncontested with the defense out of position from rebounding. But Montgomery ranked in the top 82% of players nationally doing that. That's not especially impressive when you consider that all players - guards, forwards, centers - are included in that peer comparison. In other words, Montgomery did what a 6'11, rangy and athletic forward should do when he boarded misses. He went high and finished more often than not, although going through hard contact was sometimes an issue.
In transition Montgomery was effective because he runs the court, he plays above the rim and he's skilled enough to finish with some dribbling action and going full speed. Unfortunately for him (and many other UK players last year who were also very efficient in transition), UK played at one of the slowest paces of any teams in college basketball, mitigating that strength.
The good news is Montgomery's strengths in those two areas should be easily duplicated because his height, wingspan and athleticism aren't going anywhere.
The problem last year was most everything else offensively. Here we're dealing with small samples, as Montgomery averaged all of four points per game, but he ranked in the bottom 5% of all players nationally in spot-up attempts (14 points on 30 shots). He ranked in the bottom 5% on plays during which he was the pick and roll man either flashing out or going to the basket (9 points on 17 attempts). And on post-up attempts, the most troubling area, Montgomery scored all of three points all season long (on 14 attempts), placing in the bottom 1% of players nationally by efficiency.
What's more, Montgomery almost never drew a double team down low. He scored three points on 12 single-covered post-up opportunities, with 1/9 field goals, two turnovers and one trip to the foul line resulting resulting.
It's clear what Montgomery can improve upon.
But usually players don't improve much in every area. It would be somewhat of a waste of time to spread skill development focus out across several areas.
Montgomery will work on the jump shot and in spite of his inability to knock them down, on catch and shoots or anything else, guarded or not, Calipari pretty much allowed him to take those attempts.
Its easy to imagine Montgomery becoming a reliable mid-range and even longer-range shooter when projecting his basketball career out to the NBA, the D-League or overseas several years from now because the shot isn't broken and he has a nice touch. The immediate question for next year is whether Montgomery's shot will improve enough in games for it to be a part of his arsenal, because it's difficult to imagine Calipari allowing him to launch 15-18 footers in March if his first two sophomore months are anything like his freshman season.
We should know by December about the shooting and whether Montgomery needs to scrap it and become an around-the-rim player almost exclusively.
Because the samples were small, it's not difficult to imagine Montgomery going from a bad shooter to a good shooter on mid-range shots. They looked good coming out, after all, and Calipari gave him the green (or yellow) light for a reason
So that leaves the pick-and-roll game and the amazingly poor post-up numbers from someone as big and skilled as Montgomery.
The post-up struggles seemed to have a lot to do with an underdeveloped body in the weight room, which wasn't the fault of Kentucky's strength program but was more a product of his youth and still coming into his body. In fact, Montgomery often seemed more confident taking those longer shots that didn't fall than he did on the block working against a sturdy defender, who usually knocked him out of position or didn't allow him to create a good scoring angle.
A year of strength training should do a lot for Montgomery. It's almost impossible to imagine the post-up game not improving somewhat. But will it be a strength? He's got a long way to go.
The trouble for Kentucky next year, potentially, is the post-up game in general if Montgomery's glaring weakness doesn't undergo something of a massive transformation and become a strength.
Nate Sestina did post up somewhat effectively at Bucknell during his breakout season. But we have yet to see how that translates in the SEC. He could be Travis, or Travis might have spoiled everyone. And Richards' post-up game isn't a part of Kentucky's arsenal. Even an elite backcourt could struggle to make a truly deep run in March if the Cats' post-up game doesn't find some answers with Travis and Washington gone, and Montgomery's development there could hold the keys to answering that question - or not.
Perhaps PJ Washington's development from inconsistent freshman to outstanding sophomore could be a positive sign there. But they are clearly very different players and at least in terms of the post-up game and scoring around the rim, by the end of Washington's freshman year that had already become some of Kentucky's best stuff.
What of the pick-and-roll game?
That wasn't just a Montgomery problem. It was an Ashton Hagans problem and an everyone problem. It was Calipari's worst pick-and-roll team largely because opponents didn't have to respect the ball-handler's shot. One might imagine part of Montgomery's problem was the shooting, again, with an inability to pop out and get points. But the issue here was actually not converting baskets when he rolled to the rim: Zero baskets all season.
It might have already been self-evident to anyone with eyes, but the two things Montgomery has to improve on offensively are the shooting, if he's going to be a shooter again (and he certainly seems to want to be) and the strength and scoring down low.
We haven't mentioned Montgomery's defense but it was actually very good according to the analytics.
Overall he graded out in the top 77% of players by defensive efficiency allowing just 0.777 PPP on plays in his direction, including a very low 33% field goal clip and a 10% turnover rate. His length was a real factor and even when he was out of place or slow to react it helped save him at times. Montgomery was particularly excellent defending short shot clocks because limited offensive options forced players to reckon with his length.
It wouldn't be a surprise if Montgomery's shot blocking numbers go up substantially with the minutes he would likely add onto last year's average. Two or more per game seems to be a reasonable expectation.
Justin Rowland • CatsIllustrated.com
@RowlandRIVALS
Kentucky forward EJ Montgomery announced weeks ago that he was entering his name into the 2019 NBA Draft but more recently his name did not appear on the NBA Combine list.
Montgomery's decision to enter the draft was immediately greeted by collective, "What?" by certain segments of the college hoops pundit and fan worlds, but the appropriate correction was then provided: "Why wouldn't he?"
Our purpose here is to evaluate Montgomery and his potential to move from a serviceable college big man to a star or something close to it. And that might be important for UK's championship hopes, assuming he returns to Lexington for a second year.
While the Wildcat front line will include Bucknell transfer Nate Sestina and probably Nick Richards, there are plenty of questions after that. Jaden McDaniels is more of a wing and things look more up in the air between UK and the five-star prospect anyways. While Virginia Tech grad transfer target Kyree Blackshear has been linked to Kentucky, without too much in the way of explanatory detail, Rivals.com's Corey Evans has reported that he's leaning towards keeping his name in the draft.
Kentucky's 2019-20 backcourt appears to be loaded. It might not be loaded with proven superstars, but between Tyrese Maxey, a likely standout, other new additions and the returning duo of Ashton Hagans and Immanuel Quickley, UK will have plenty of options at the guard and wing spots.
But what of that front line?
At best, Sestina could aspire to be Reid Travis in terms of impactfulness. That would be quite good. As for Richards, it would be wise not to bank on too much until he proves he'll provide it consistently, and John Calipari proves he will play him in big moments.
For now at least, that leaves Montgomery as the difference between Kentucky being a backcourt-and-wing loaded team with some some questions up front and a truly complete team with multiple potential stars at every spot on the court and a difference maker inside on both ends of the court.
Montgomery's development from Year 1 to 2 is that important. It could be the single biggest factor in determining whether Kentucky is a championship frontrunner or one among many teams that get some plugs during the bracket shows.
This is worth talking about because Montgomery's potential is vast. But also because his freshman season left quite a bit to be desired.
His five-star prospect status made sense when you project his rebounds per game (in 15 minutes on average) out to 40 or in some of his brightest moments, such as his 11 point, 13 rebound effort against South Carolina.
Montgomery looked like a five-star performer and not just prospect when he did two things on the court in 2018-19: On offensive rebound put back attempts and in transition.
According to our analytic providers and partners at Synergy Sports, Montgomery produced a whopping 1.303 points per possession on those put back attempts. That way of scoring will naturally produce a higher than average scoring clip because many of those attempts are dunks, layups or uncontested with the defense out of position from rebounding. But Montgomery ranked in the top 82% of players nationally doing that. That's not especially impressive when you consider that all players - guards, forwards, centers - are included in that peer comparison. In other words, Montgomery did what a 6'11, rangy and athletic forward should do when he boarded misses. He went high and finished more often than not, although going through hard contact was sometimes an issue.
In transition Montgomery was effective because he runs the court, he plays above the rim and he's skilled enough to finish with some dribbling action and going full speed. Unfortunately for him (and many other UK players last year who were also very efficient in transition), UK played at one of the slowest paces of any teams in college basketball, mitigating that strength.
The good news is Montgomery's strengths in those two areas should be easily duplicated because his height, wingspan and athleticism aren't going anywhere.
The problem last year was most everything else offensively. Here we're dealing with small samples, as Montgomery averaged all of four points per game, but he ranked in the bottom 5% of all players nationally in spot-up attempts (14 points on 30 shots). He ranked in the bottom 5% on plays during which he was the pick and roll man either flashing out or going to the basket (9 points on 17 attempts). And on post-up attempts, the most troubling area, Montgomery scored all of three points all season long (on 14 attempts), placing in the bottom 1% of players nationally by efficiency.
What's more, Montgomery almost never drew a double team down low. He scored three points on 12 single-covered post-up opportunities, with 1/9 field goals, two turnovers and one trip to the foul line resulting resulting.
It's clear what Montgomery can improve upon.
But usually players don't improve much in every area. It would be somewhat of a waste of time to spread skill development focus out across several areas.
Montgomery will work on the jump shot and in spite of his inability to knock them down, on catch and shoots or anything else, guarded or not, Calipari pretty much allowed him to take those attempts.
Its easy to imagine Montgomery becoming a reliable mid-range and even longer-range shooter when projecting his basketball career out to the NBA, the D-League or overseas several years from now because the shot isn't broken and he has a nice touch. The immediate question for next year is whether Montgomery's shot will improve enough in games for it to be a part of his arsenal, because it's difficult to imagine Calipari allowing him to launch 15-18 footers in March if his first two sophomore months are anything like his freshman season.
We should know by December about the shooting and whether Montgomery needs to scrap it and become an around-the-rim player almost exclusively.
Because the samples were small, it's not difficult to imagine Montgomery going from a bad shooter to a good shooter on mid-range shots. They looked good coming out, after all, and Calipari gave him the green (or yellow) light for a reason
So that leaves the pick-and-roll game and the amazingly poor post-up numbers from someone as big and skilled as Montgomery.
The post-up struggles seemed to have a lot to do with an underdeveloped body in the weight room, which wasn't the fault of Kentucky's strength program but was more a product of his youth and still coming into his body. In fact, Montgomery often seemed more confident taking those longer shots that didn't fall than he did on the block working against a sturdy defender, who usually knocked him out of position or didn't allow him to create a good scoring angle.
A year of strength training should do a lot for Montgomery. It's almost impossible to imagine the post-up game not improving somewhat. But will it be a strength? He's got a long way to go.
The trouble for Kentucky next year, potentially, is the post-up game in general if Montgomery's glaring weakness doesn't undergo something of a massive transformation and become a strength.
Nate Sestina did post up somewhat effectively at Bucknell during his breakout season. But we have yet to see how that translates in the SEC. He could be Travis, or Travis might have spoiled everyone. And Richards' post-up game isn't a part of Kentucky's arsenal. Even an elite backcourt could struggle to make a truly deep run in March if the Cats' post-up game doesn't find some answers with Travis and Washington gone, and Montgomery's development there could hold the keys to answering that question - or not.
Perhaps PJ Washington's development from inconsistent freshman to outstanding sophomore could be a positive sign there. But they are clearly very different players and at least in terms of the post-up game and scoring around the rim, by the end of Washington's freshman year that had already become some of Kentucky's best stuff.
What of the pick-and-roll game?
That wasn't just a Montgomery problem. It was an Ashton Hagans problem and an everyone problem. It was Calipari's worst pick-and-roll team largely because opponents didn't have to respect the ball-handler's shot. One might imagine part of Montgomery's problem was the shooting, again, with an inability to pop out and get points. But the issue here was actually not converting baskets when he rolled to the rim: Zero baskets all season.
It might have already been self-evident to anyone with eyes, but the two things Montgomery has to improve on offensively are the shooting, if he's going to be a shooter again (and he certainly seems to want to be) and the strength and scoring down low.
We haven't mentioned Montgomery's defense but it was actually very good according to the analytics.
Overall he graded out in the top 77% of players by defensive efficiency allowing just 0.777 PPP on plays in his direction, including a very low 33% field goal clip and a 10% turnover rate. His length was a real factor and even when he was out of place or slow to react it helped save him at times. Montgomery was particularly excellent defending short shot clocks because limited offensive options forced players to reckon with his length.
It wouldn't be a surprise if Montgomery's shot blocking numbers go up substantially with the minutes he would likely add onto last year's average. Two or more per game seems to be a reasonable expectation.
