The following rant is …just a BIT wordy. Sorry. (Longest post of all time?) And I might have grammatical & spelling errors, and the notorious RuppRafters software might produce some formatting errors after I press “send”, and I might even repeat myself myself, so apologies in advance. But I don’t like to go back to edit, so you’ll just have to live with my errors. (tough titties)
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Anyway, as a KU fan, I LIKE reading Rupp Rafters. I love the passion of your fanbase, and the discussions. I even love the ignorant knuckleheads.
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Fanbases have to keep each other in-check, though, because we all get off-track SOMEtimes. We all “wear ‘blinders’” (Blue[blood] tinted glasses) and sometimes can’t see the truth. Statistics can be hard to wade through, and the weeds get in the way. But here’s what I was thinking:
Ever since Kansas overtook Kentucky in all-time wins (on the court), there’s been a lot of chatter about how UK’s win% is more important than KU’s total wins, which is inarguably illogical, since that stance very much disregards Kentucky’s usually lesser quality of opponents, compared to KU’s.
Kentucky has almost always bolstered its wins totals and win% vs SEC teams, and often voluntarily schedules “cupcakes” or “mediocre” teams, instead of top teams or high mid-majors.
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Here is each SEC team’s record, in its last 13 games, vs Big XII teams:
53% win% vs Big 12:
Tenn (7-6)
Ark (7-6)
————
46% win% vs Big 12:
Uk (6-7)
Aub (6-7)
A&M (6-7)
———-
38%win% vs Big 12:
Bama (5-8)
MissSt (5-8)
UGa. (5-8)
SCar. (5-8)
———-
30% win% vs Big 12:
Fla (4-9)
Lsu (4-9)
Vand. (4-9)
———-
23% win% vs Big 12:
Mizzou (3-10)
OleMiss. (3-10)
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And how much worse would the SEC’s “vs Big XII” record be if the Big XII had been allowed to play the SEC’s bottom-four teams each year (like Kentucky regularly gets to do?!?
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Future SEC (Big 12) member Oklahoma is 20-7 vs SEC teams since Cal arrived at UK. Texas is 11-6.
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Below: Total number of Final Fours in these TEN, SEC programs’ histories, and SEVEN of these programs haven’t been able to win 40% of their recent games vs the Big 12, and these win percentages would be even worse for the SEC, if the Big 12 had been able to play the SEC’s annually worst programs, at least a little:
Total Final Fours:
Auburn: 1 (46% recent win% vs Big 12)
S.Carolina 1
MissSt 1
UGa 1
T a&m 0 (46% recent win%)
Tenn 0 (53% recent win%)
Vandy 0
Bama 0
Mizzou 0
OleMiss 0
That’s Six SEC teams (UK opponents) with zero Final Fours, and four more with one. That means only THREE of UK’s 13 SEC opponents (Ark, Fla, Lsu) have more than one Final Four, and the Big 12 has been handling Florida and Lsu just fine (both 4-9 vs Big 12 recently = 30% win%).
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By the way, I like how Cal dodged playing Texas in 2021, announcing, a week ahead, that Texas (a ranked team) couldn’t come to Rupp next week, because of Covid (supposedly a UK basketball manager had Covid a week before the Texas game). Conveniently, that game was cancelled when UK was in the midst of a 7-of-8 games losing streak, or it would’ve been 8 of 9.
KenPom says the SEC is usually average or just above, whereas Kansas usually finishes as the 1st- or 2nd-best national team in (KenPom) strength-of-schedule, while regularly winning one of the hardest leagues.
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Every SEASON, KU has had to face every Big 12 team two — sometimes three — times, many of whom are ranked, including going on the road, every year (vs teams who regularly beat SEC teams). (What’s Cal’s road record like these days? Still cringy?) KU doesn’t shy away from competition, or over-celebrate after games when beating at-least-finally-decent SEC teams (see UK players’ reactions last year, dancing around and laughing after they beat, say, a Tennessee).
———
How would Kentucky have faired in the Big 12 all these years? NOT VERY WELL. How would Kansas have done in the SEC all these years. Statistically, it’s guaranteed KU would have racked up a lot more wins.
—-
Ku vs ranked teams: 2015-16 thru 2022-23 (eight seasons), KU has 61 ranked wins during this time, whereas UK has played only 62, total “vs ranked teams” games.
KU: 61 ranked wins (36 losses)
UK: 28 ranked wins (34 losses)
And during that time, last I counted, UK’s had 34 “Rivals 5-star” players (fall of 2015 through present).
Kansas has had less than 1/4 of that number, and several of those were unavailable during NCAA tournaments, plus, KU obviously didn’t have its coach in the last year’s tournament (in a 1-point loss to Arkansas — which was full of NBA players).
Auburn: 6 five-star players over eight seasons
Duke: 30
Villanova: 3
Unc: 9
Michigan St: 5
Michigan: 3
————— (end of part 1, of 2)…(to be continued…)
——-
Anyway, as a KU fan, I LIKE reading Rupp Rafters. I love the passion of your fanbase, and the discussions. I even love the ignorant knuckleheads.
——-
Fanbases have to keep each other in-check, though, because we all get off-track SOMEtimes. We all “wear ‘blinders’” (Blue[blood] tinted glasses) and sometimes can’t see the truth. Statistics can be hard to wade through, and the weeds get in the way. But here’s what I was thinking:
Ever since Kansas overtook Kentucky in all-time wins (on the court), there’s been a lot of chatter about how UK’s win% is more important than KU’s total wins, which is inarguably illogical, since that stance very much disregards Kentucky’s usually lesser quality of opponents, compared to KU’s.
Kentucky has almost always bolstered its wins totals and win% vs SEC teams, and often voluntarily schedules “cupcakes” or “mediocre” teams, instead of top teams or high mid-majors.
———
Here is each SEC team’s record, in its last 13 games, vs Big XII teams:
53% win% vs Big 12:
Tenn (7-6)
Ark (7-6)
————
46% win% vs Big 12:
Uk (6-7)
Aub (6-7)
A&M (6-7)
———-
38%win% vs Big 12:
Bama (5-8)
MissSt (5-8)
UGa. (5-8)
SCar. (5-8)
———-
30% win% vs Big 12:
Fla (4-9)
Lsu (4-9)
Vand. (4-9)
———-
23% win% vs Big 12:
Mizzou (3-10)
OleMiss. (3-10)
——-
And how much worse would the SEC’s “vs Big XII” record be if the Big XII had been allowed to play the SEC’s bottom-four teams each year (like Kentucky regularly gets to do?!?
——
Future SEC (Big 12) member Oklahoma is 20-7 vs SEC teams since Cal arrived at UK. Texas is 11-6.
——
Below: Total number of Final Fours in these TEN, SEC programs’ histories, and SEVEN of these programs haven’t been able to win 40% of their recent games vs the Big 12, and these win percentages would be even worse for the SEC, if the Big 12 had been able to play the SEC’s annually worst programs, at least a little:
Total Final Fours:
Auburn: 1 (46% recent win% vs Big 12)
S.Carolina 1
MissSt 1
UGa 1
T a&m 0 (46% recent win%)
Tenn 0 (53% recent win%)
Vandy 0
Bama 0
Mizzou 0
OleMiss 0
That’s Six SEC teams (UK opponents) with zero Final Fours, and four more with one. That means only THREE of UK’s 13 SEC opponents (Ark, Fla, Lsu) have more than one Final Four, and the Big 12 has been handling Florida and Lsu just fine (both 4-9 vs Big 12 recently = 30% win%).
———
By the way, I like how Cal dodged playing Texas in 2021, announcing, a week ahead, that Texas (a ranked team) couldn’t come to Rupp next week, because of Covid (supposedly a UK basketball manager had Covid a week before the Texas game). Conveniently, that game was cancelled when UK was in the midst of a 7-of-8 games losing streak, or it would’ve been 8 of 9.
KenPom says the SEC is usually average or just above, whereas Kansas usually finishes as the 1st- or 2nd-best national team in (KenPom) strength-of-schedule, while regularly winning one of the hardest leagues.
———
Every SEASON, KU has had to face every Big 12 team two — sometimes three — times, many of whom are ranked, including going on the road, every year (vs teams who regularly beat SEC teams). (What’s Cal’s road record like these days? Still cringy?) KU doesn’t shy away from competition, or over-celebrate after games when beating at-least-finally-decent SEC teams (see UK players’ reactions last year, dancing around and laughing after they beat, say, a Tennessee).
———
How would Kentucky have faired in the Big 12 all these years? NOT VERY WELL. How would Kansas have done in the SEC all these years. Statistically, it’s guaranteed KU would have racked up a lot more wins.
—-
Ku vs ranked teams: 2015-16 thru 2022-23 (eight seasons), KU has 61 ranked wins during this time, whereas UK has played only 62, total “vs ranked teams” games.
KU: 61 ranked wins (36 losses)
UK: 28 ranked wins (34 losses)
And during that time, last I counted, UK’s had 34 “Rivals 5-star” players (fall of 2015 through present).
Kansas has had less than 1/4 of that number, and several of those were unavailable during NCAA tournaments, plus, KU obviously didn’t have its coach in the last year’s tournament (in a 1-point loss to Arkansas — which was full of NBA players).
Auburn: 6 five-star players over eight seasons
Duke: 30
Villanova: 3
Unc: 9
Michigan St: 5
Michigan: 3
————— (end of part 1, of 2)…(to be continued…)
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