I agree with all your points except the outcome; I do not believe we're going to completely crash and burn and become an NIT team.My $02.
I support CMP, this staff, and these players.
All new to each other but after 22 games you can draw some conclusions.
1. If we are not hitting 3's or beating the other team down the floor for easy buckets, we can't win. You score 84 points and get blown out! That is inexcusable but shows that are defense is very poor and scoring 90+ a game is mandatory. There is not a game left on our schedule that I feel confident we will win. Thought we were a shoo in for the NCAA Tourney a few weeks ago, but have serious doubts that we will make it now.
2. We have maybe 4 good defensive players on this team; Butler, Chandler, Oweh, and Williams. The others do not seem to have the quickness to keep between their man and the basket without backing well off their man. If you watched Ole Miss last night, they were up in our guys grill the first half. You can only play that way defensively if you know you are quicker than the man you are guarding. It was difficult for our guys to get into a triple threat position. Most of the time, man with the ball was not looking to make a play or scoring pass, but just get rid of the ball before he turned it over.
3. Defense is bad with Butler but much worse without him. He pressures the opponents main ballhandler, slows down the pace of the opponent's offense resulting in eating up the shot clock. Butler also helps us offensively as he can get the ball up the floor quickly for easy buckets or getting into the offense quickly. BYU did that well last year and would be into their offense with over 20 seconds left on the shot clock. Poor Jackson and Pery were just trying to beat the clock and get the ball over half court.
4. Offensively, I don't understand why we are not setting the picks and cutting backdoor as we did earlier in the season. How do you counteract pressure - cut to the basket, make the defense pay for overplaying. This offense should make a team pay that likes to pressure.
How can our defense improve?
1. Get Butler back.
2. Don't know if the 1-3-1 would help but give it a try. Maybe trap some in the halfcourt and run the 2-2-1 press in the backcourt. Lateral quickness is not something you can teach but mixing up the defenses can slow down the opponent and cause them to think.
3. I think we help too much off of our man, if that is possible, trying to help our teammates leaving 1-3 offensive players open for a 3 point shot. Most of the 3-point shots taken against us are wide open as we are too deep towards the paint to recover.
4. I would use the entire roster each game to try and wear out our opponent. You cannot say we are giving up defense when we go to the bench.
I don't know if any of the above will help but we need to be more aggressive and try to force some turnovers ourselves. If Butler does not come back, we are NIT bound.
On defense I'd like to see us put on light full court pressure just to delay the other team starting their offense for 5 seconds and then set up in a 1-3-1 zone and then pick up man to man with about 10 seconds left on the clock.Along with getting Butler back and playing with a little more fire this could get us up to being a near mediocre defensive team and with our offense that's good enough to win quite a few games.