Who has the edge at each position?
PJ Washington (UK Athletics)
Travis Graf
Special Contributor
Before we get started, here’s an explanation of the analytics used here. These analytics are what college and NBA teams use to determine how well a player is actually playing.
PER = Player Efficiency Rate (Sums up all a player's positive accomplishments, subtracts the negative accomplishments and returns a per-minute rating of a player's performance)
TS% = True Shooting Percentage (Takes into account 3 pointers, 2 pointers and free throws)
USG% = Usage Percentage (Estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while he was on the floor)
BPM = Box Score Plus/Minus (A box score estimate of the points per 100 possessions a player contributed above a league-average player, translated to an average team)
Coby White
Stats: 15.2 PPG, 3.9 APG, 2.0 RPG
Analytics: PER = 20.9, TS% = 59%, USG% = 28.2%, BPM = +5.9
Ashton Hagans
Stats: 3.6 PPG, 1.1 RPG, 3.1 APG
Analytics: PER = 8.5, TS% = 45%, USG% = 13.8%, BPM = +0.2
Coby White is a guy that can get red hot at anytime. Against Texas earlier this season, White went for 33 points and 7/10 from three. Arguably the best part of White’s game as a point guard is his ability to use screens flawlessly. He’s great at splitting the defenders and will make you pay if you go under the screen.
Ashton Hagans has shown flashes of being an elite lockdown defender so far this season. He will need that tenacity on the defensive end this weekend against White, as White can easily get hot if he’s given any amount of space. While having been great for spurts on defense, Hagans’ offense has left a lot to be desired. He has to be more of a threat. This game could be Hagans’ coming out party, as he’s best in transition and the Tar Heels love to get up and down the court.
Advantage: North Carolina
Kenny Williams
Stats: 7.7 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 4.8 APG
Analytics: PER = 12.1, TS% = 49%, USG% = 15.1%, BPM = +5.1
Tyler Herro:Stats: 12.1 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 2.1 APG
Analytics: PER = 19.5, TS% = 53%, USG% = 22.4%, BPM = +5.9
Kenny Williams is a game manager for Roy Williams’ offense and does a good job of distributing the ball and setting up the offense, but he’s not a great threat on the offensive end, shooting 24% from 3 on the season. He has an extremely high TO% at 17.8% (meaning Williams turns the ball over 17.8% of possessions). The analytics say that he’s not the best defender, either. His opponents’ FG% is high and he has the lowest box score +/- of the UNC starters at +5.1.
Tyler Herro came to UK as a highly-touted shooter, and while his 3 point shot hasn’t been connecting due to his sped-up release, he’s been able to score from midrange and in the paint. Herro isn’t a great man-to-man defender for long periods of time, but he has shown he can cause chaos on that end of the floor. North Carolina’s defense has been equally bad as Kentucky’s so far this season, so Herro will have an opportunity to get open looks Saturday.
Advantage: Kentucky
Cam Johnson
Stats: 16.6 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 1.7 APG
Analytics: PER = 25.9, TS% = 68%, USG% = 21.8%, BPM = +12
Keldon Johnson
Stats: 16.3 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 1.3 APG
Analytics: PER = 20.7, TS% = 64%, USG% = 21.8%, BPM = +4.8
Cam Johnson comes into this game as one of the nations’ top 3 point shooters, shooting 49% from outside the arc. The majority of Johnson’s threes are from the wing, where he shoots the highest percentage. He can drive as well, but nearly 50% of his shots come from the outside. He’s much more of an offensive threat, as the analytics shows that he affects a box score 5 times more on the offensive end than the defensive end.
Keldon Johnson is fresh off of a breakout performance against Utah, where the freshman went 6/7 behind the 3 point line. Johnson has shown flashes of brilliance this season, but has also shown the ability to disappear for big amounts of different games (Seton Hall). Kentucky thought Johnson would be their defensive stopper this season, but analytics show that he’s their worst on-ball defender, actually having a negative influence in the box score on the defensive end. Being matched up with one of the best shooters in the country, that’s not exactly a recipe for success.
Advantage: North Carolina
Luke Maye
Stats: 14.3 PPG, 10 RPG, 1.9 APG
Analytics: PER = 19.8, TS% = 55%, USG% = 22%, BPM = +6.1
PJ Washington
Stats: 13.5 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 1.7 APG
Analytics: PER = 26.3, TS% = 60%, USG% = 25.1%, BPM = +8.2
Luke Maye is well-known amongst Kentucky fans, having hit the dagger against the Cats in the 2017 Elite Eight. Maye is a high-IQ player and uses that well in order to neutralize his lack of athleticism. He hasn’t hit threes at as high of a clip as he did the past two seasons, but he shoots it well enough (31%) to keep you honest. You have to hit the glass when matched up with Maye, as he averages 10 rebounds per game and rebounds 18.1% of all misses while he’s on the court.
PJ Washington has been very efficient, clearly shown by his 26.3 player efficiency rating. This is truly an amazing point, because normally have a dip in their efficiency when their offensive usage goes up, which is what Washington’s has done this season. He’s shown the ability to score from all three levels so far this season, shooting 47% from three on the season. He grabs an absurd 20.2% of all misses when he’s on the court, which is an even higher number than Maye.
Advantage: Push
Garrison Brooks
Stats: 9.0 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 0.8 APG
Analytics: PER = 21.8, TS% = 59%, USG% = 19.2%, BPM = +8.9
Reid Travis
Stats: 14.6 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.1 APG
Analytics: PER = 26.0, TS% = 67%, USG% = 22.4%, BPM = +7.0
Garrison Brooks is a typical college sophomore, having his number double from year one to year two. He’s a good college player, but not one that blows you away, yet. He has the potential to grow into that. In the majority of games Kentucky has played, all five opposing players have been jump shooting threats. Brooks doesn’t fit that billing. This will allow Reid Travis to be stationed in the paint the majority of the time. Brooks rebounds at a pretty good rate, posting a 16.2% rebound rate. Analytics show that he’s been playing well on the defensive side of the ball as well, with pretty positive effectiveness on the box score.
Reid Travis came to Kentucky to expand his game and he’s done just that, increasing his three point percentage from 29% last year to 50% this year. Like Maye, what Travis lacks in athleticism, he makes up for in basketball IQ. He really understands how to use his lower body in order to set himself up for well-angled shots. He also rebounds 14.6% of misses while he’s on the court. He hasn’t been very effective on the defensive end of the court, barely affecting the box score with his defensive play. Part of that has to do with him guarding perimeter-oriented bigs up until this point of the season. That won’t be the case Saturday.
Advantage: Kentucky
PJ Washington (UK Athletics)
Travis Graf
Special Contributor
Before we get started, here’s an explanation of the analytics used here. These analytics are what college and NBA teams use to determine how well a player is actually playing.
PER = Player Efficiency Rate (Sums up all a player's positive accomplishments, subtracts the negative accomplishments and returns a per-minute rating of a player's performance)
TS% = True Shooting Percentage (Takes into account 3 pointers, 2 pointers and free throws)
USG% = Usage Percentage (Estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while he was on the floor)
BPM = Box Score Plus/Minus (A box score estimate of the points per 100 possessions a player contributed above a league-average player, translated to an average team)
Coby White
Stats: 15.2 PPG, 3.9 APG, 2.0 RPG
Analytics: PER = 20.9, TS% = 59%, USG% = 28.2%, BPM = +5.9
Ashton Hagans
Stats: 3.6 PPG, 1.1 RPG, 3.1 APG
Analytics: PER = 8.5, TS% = 45%, USG% = 13.8%, BPM = +0.2
Coby White is a guy that can get red hot at anytime. Against Texas earlier this season, White went for 33 points and 7/10 from three. Arguably the best part of White’s game as a point guard is his ability to use screens flawlessly. He’s great at splitting the defenders and will make you pay if you go under the screen.
Ashton Hagans has shown flashes of being an elite lockdown defender so far this season. He will need that tenacity on the defensive end this weekend against White, as White can easily get hot if he’s given any amount of space. While having been great for spurts on defense, Hagans’ offense has left a lot to be desired. He has to be more of a threat. This game could be Hagans’ coming out party, as he’s best in transition and the Tar Heels love to get up and down the court.
Advantage: North Carolina
Kenny Williams
Stats: 7.7 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 4.8 APG
Analytics: PER = 12.1, TS% = 49%, USG% = 15.1%, BPM = +5.1
Tyler Herro:Stats: 12.1 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 2.1 APG
Analytics: PER = 19.5, TS% = 53%, USG% = 22.4%, BPM = +5.9
Kenny Williams is a game manager for Roy Williams’ offense and does a good job of distributing the ball and setting up the offense, but he’s not a great threat on the offensive end, shooting 24% from 3 on the season. He has an extremely high TO% at 17.8% (meaning Williams turns the ball over 17.8% of possessions). The analytics say that he’s not the best defender, either. His opponents’ FG% is high and he has the lowest box score +/- of the UNC starters at +5.1.
Tyler Herro came to UK as a highly-touted shooter, and while his 3 point shot hasn’t been connecting due to his sped-up release, he’s been able to score from midrange and in the paint. Herro isn’t a great man-to-man defender for long periods of time, but he has shown he can cause chaos on that end of the floor. North Carolina’s defense has been equally bad as Kentucky’s so far this season, so Herro will have an opportunity to get open looks Saturday.
Advantage: Kentucky
Cam Johnson
Stats: 16.6 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 1.7 APG
Analytics: PER = 25.9, TS% = 68%, USG% = 21.8%, BPM = +12
Keldon Johnson
Stats: 16.3 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 1.3 APG
Analytics: PER = 20.7, TS% = 64%, USG% = 21.8%, BPM = +4.8
Cam Johnson comes into this game as one of the nations’ top 3 point shooters, shooting 49% from outside the arc. The majority of Johnson’s threes are from the wing, where he shoots the highest percentage. He can drive as well, but nearly 50% of his shots come from the outside. He’s much more of an offensive threat, as the analytics shows that he affects a box score 5 times more on the offensive end than the defensive end.
Keldon Johnson is fresh off of a breakout performance against Utah, where the freshman went 6/7 behind the 3 point line. Johnson has shown flashes of brilliance this season, but has also shown the ability to disappear for big amounts of different games (Seton Hall). Kentucky thought Johnson would be their defensive stopper this season, but analytics show that he’s their worst on-ball defender, actually having a negative influence in the box score on the defensive end. Being matched up with one of the best shooters in the country, that’s not exactly a recipe for success.
Advantage: North Carolina
Luke Maye
Stats: 14.3 PPG, 10 RPG, 1.9 APG
Analytics: PER = 19.8, TS% = 55%, USG% = 22%, BPM = +6.1
PJ Washington
Stats: 13.5 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 1.7 APG
Analytics: PER = 26.3, TS% = 60%, USG% = 25.1%, BPM = +8.2
Luke Maye is well-known amongst Kentucky fans, having hit the dagger against the Cats in the 2017 Elite Eight. Maye is a high-IQ player and uses that well in order to neutralize his lack of athleticism. He hasn’t hit threes at as high of a clip as he did the past two seasons, but he shoots it well enough (31%) to keep you honest. You have to hit the glass when matched up with Maye, as he averages 10 rebounds per game and rebounds 18.1% of all misses while he’s on the court.
PJ Washington has been very efficient, clearly shown by his 26.3 player efficiency rating. This is truly an amazing point, because normally have a dip in their efficiency when their offensive usage goes up, which is what Washington’s has done this season. He’s shown the ability to score from all three levels so far this season, shooting 47% from three on the season. He grabs an absurd 20.2% of all misses when he’s on the court, which is an even higher number than Maye.
Advantage: Push
Garrison Brooks
Stats: 9.0 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 0.8 APG
Analytics: PER = 21.8, TS% = 59%, USG% = 19.2%, BPM = +8.9
Reid Travis
Stats: 14.6 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.1 APG
Analytics: PER = 26.0, TS% = 67%, USG% = 22.4%, BPM = +7.0
Garrison Brooks is a typical college sophomore, having his number double from year one to year two. He’s a good college player, but not one that blows you away, yet. He has the potential to grow into that. In the majority of games Kentucky has played, all five opposing players have been jump shooting threats. Brooks doesn’t fit that billing. This will allow Reid Travis to be stationed in the paint the majority of the time. Brooks rebounds at a pretty good rate, posting a 16.2% rebound rate. Analytics show that he’s been playing well on the defensive side of the ball as well, with pretty positive effectiveness on the box score.
Reid Travis came to Kentucky to expand his game and he’s done just that, increasing his three point percentage from 29% last year to 50% this year. Like Maye, what Travis lacks in athleticism, he makes up for in basketball IQ. He really understands how to use his lower body in order to set himself up for well-angled shots. He also rebounds 14.6% of misses while he’s on the court. He hasn’t been very effective on the defensive end of the court, barely affecting the box score with his defensive play. Part of that has to do with him guarding perimeter-oriented bigs up until this point of the season. That won’t be the case Saturday.
Advantage: Kentucky
