Johnny, I agree with your post.
But when you consider that the only UofL teams UK has beaten at CWS over the last 20 years were coached by Ron Cooper or Steve Kragthorpe, it does give pause for thought. There were a lot of games played in that time that have nothing to do with probation. And the average margin of victory in those UofL wins at CWS is 15, while two of the 3 UK wins during that span literally weren't decided until the game's final possession.
But I will say that anyone on either side that sees this game today as anything other than at least a near tossup, is a bit perplexing to me. As a Louisville fan, there are "way" too many question marks for me to be comfortable with predicting a "W" over the Cats in CWS this season. I wouldn't be "shocked" if Louisville wins 10 games this year, and UK once again fails to make a bowl after losing its 5th straight to the Cards. I also wouldn't be "shocked" if UK beats Louisville & wins 8 or 9 games, while Louisville limps toward .500 because their offensive line becomes an unmitigated disaster.
I honestly have no clue what to expect right now, but fan bases on both sides seemed to have ratcheted up their confidence level lately. And that's a good thing, for threads like this one.