What me, you and every fan want is for his team to recruit the players that give his team the best chance to first win now, and second to have a program that is a perennial contender, right? But I think what you’re presenting is really a false dichotomy. You can recruit really good or projectable high school players (e.g., skilled higher floor/lower ceiling, tweeners, big men projects, etc.) every year – which UK seems to be doing some more now – to build a returning core (i.e., program builders). Good coaches from high school through college, including Calipari and his staff, can discern potential. And, at the same time, you can also recruit some OADs - other top programs do it every year. But, as another poster here has wisely stated to me, if you’re going to do that the key is that you need balance.
Why not rely so heavily on high school OADs? Because overwhelmingly the best college basketball players each season are upperclassmen – and teams anchored by those better upperclassmen are the ones going to FFs and winning championships. And in this new portal transfer era + NIL, a college All-Conference or even All-American can and often will transfer to one of the top programs, and especially, I think, a program like UK. So, if UKs returning players are not enough by themselves – and they never will be “good enough” if you think you can improve somewhere, right? – then you go after the best portal transfers as hard as you ever recruited high school OADs regardless of who has already committed. Again, because they’re generally and overwhelming going to be better college players in a one-year scenario.
Look at the projected draft boards. They’re chocked full of freshmen who aren’t even remotely close to the best players in their league, little alone college basketball. So, someone who assumes the highest projected draft picks must be the best players is just wrong. What those freshmen are, is players with the most projectable upside. The NBA teams already have the best players in the world, so they particularly don’t need the best players in college basketball (who may be close to maxing out their potential). What they want is to speculate on what a young kid might become – if all that “talent” actually develops into a high-level pro, then they have “won” the draft. If the kid never turns out, then it’s not that bad because, as I said, they already have really good (some great) players.
So, it’s not recruiting OADs that is, in my opinion, the problem. The problem is over-reliance on freshmen to carry your team and not bringing in the best players for the OADS to compete against. If the OAD beats out the returning player or transfer, then by all means he should play in front of them. But if he can’t – and history I think shows he frequently won’t – then let him come off the bench and help the team while he develops. Most 5-star freshmen on contending teams are role players with upside (where occasionally the “talent” will burst out in “wow” plays). And the NBA is still going to draft them on potential.
And if you tell me: “Well, the OAD high school recruits won’t come if they have to compete with good upperclassmen,” then I say fine, don’t take them. Would you rather have a player with more perceived “talent” who is leaving after one year or a player who has a bigger impact on winning now? Or stated another way, would you rather have a 5-star high school recruit or a college All-American (or even just All-Conference)? Would you rather have Edwards or McCullar (or Reeves or Knecht or Trey Alexander, or Dillon Jones or Tristan da Silva – and on-and-on)? Or, if you say it’s not fair using Edwards because he’s been a perceived “bust” (I don’t agree with that by the way), then substitute Cody Williams (Colorado) or Ja’Kobe Walker (Baylor) and those upperclassmen still have a much bigger impact on winning today than either.