Florida's talent level

[JPFisher]

Stamps, Westry, and Hatcher would be vying for a starting spot at UF. Incredible talents.

Forrest, Ware, and Harmon would also be given a look based on their play thus far. That's just with me cherry-picking the best of the best on our side. Our defense isn't devoid of talent by any means.

 

[UKwannabe]

UK QBs/RBs vs UF Linebackers-Edge UK

UK OL vs UF DL(Front 5)-Even

UK WRs/TEs vs UF Secondary-"Maybe" slight edge UK. At worst a wash

UF QBs/RBS vs UK Linebackers-Very slight edge UF.

UF OL vs UK DL(Front 5)-Slight Edge UK

UF WRs/TEs vs UK DBs-Slight Edge UK

Florida's best group, will be matched up against UKs best group. Last year UKS Wide outs outplayed UFs secondary so I don't see justification to believe this year's group won't do the same.

This matchup will come down to QB play, and I feel confident that Towles will outplay Grier.

 

[Deeeefense]

Based on perceived talent, best on paper, which is derived from recruiting rankings, Florida is 4.1 times more athletic than UK based upon current players rankings.

Look at the rankings:

FL KY
Freshmen Class 2015 20 43
Sophomore Class 2014 6 20
Junior Class 2013 2 36
Senior Class 2012 3 63
Redshirt 2011 12 62

FL recruit ranking averages around 10th while we are 41.


It is obvious we are closing the gap with CMS. When looking at just the last 3 years, FL's lead is only 2.3 times better with a ratio of FL average ranking of 11 and UK 27. Great gains, but still a large disparity.

Of course this isn't scientific as attrition occurs, players go pro, transfer out and in, injuries, etc.

We have a ways to go, we are on the right track, how is it that we played them so well last year?

What if we win tomorrow? They have a clear talent edge.

Better coaching?
Better execution?
Better football players?


We most likely never catch FL on the recruiting ranking simply because of their fertile home state but there is no doubt we can outplay them

Now go back and see how many of those players from those classes are still at Florida. You might be in for a big surprise.

 

[Blue Decade]

This is great and all. But stars do matter, especially with vast disparity like UF and UK. JRowland did a study based upon recruiting stars and final record over the last several years. It was pretty much dead on.

This does not mean a less talented team on paper cannot win, ask Wisconsin, but those other 38 wins had a lot to do with overpowering talent.

What does that have to do with what I said? I understand why Brian Poe defends star ratings. LOL! No problem there. But I don't understand how any fan can make a big deal about star ratings, then turn right around and claim that there is no talent gap between Florida's football team and Kentucky's football team. Are you following me there?

 

[Blue Decade]

Now go back and see how many of those players from those classes are still at Florida. You might be in for a big surprise.

That's true at every program, and certainly true at Kentucky as well. It isn't a valid reason to think there isn't a talent gap today. If Stoops wins today, it's because Kentucky is a better coached team, with a better quarterback, playing at home.

 

[shutzhund]

It stacks up to be an upset should we win. Talent wise it seems to be a no contest if you believe in stars. I hate it but the record will probably be unbroken this year.

I'm just not a big believer in intangibles for SEC football. You either have the horses or you don't. Our coaches are closing that talent gap using the idea that UK is the northern most entrance to the SEC. I really like that approach. Ohio high school kids, for example, play football and they are a good addition to our other more traditional recruiting areas.

Here's to hoping I'm wrong about "intangibles".

 

[Deeeefense]

That's true at every program, and certainly true at Kentucky as well. It isn't a valid reason to think there isn't a talent gap today. If Stoops wins today, it's because Kentucky is a better coached team, with a better quarterback, playing at home.

It's not so much about a loss of talent as it is a loss of experience. You lose 8 four stars one year and replace them with 8 the next then lose 2 of those the next and another one the next and you keep replacing them, then one day you wake up and start the season and all you have at key positions are freshmen. That's what happened to South Carolina and that's what happened to Florida. Now they have a O-line made up with a bunch of talented but very inexperienced kids protecting a quarterback with no experience.

Phil Steeles uses 5 data points to come up with a composite ranking of team experience each year. This year Kentucky ranks 2nd in the SEC and 23rd nationally while Florida ranks last in the SEC and 130th nationally.
The point I'm making is the star counters never bother to look at this and it has a huge impact on a teams performance.

 

[Blue Decade]

Our defense isn't devoid of talent by any means.

That's valid. Our defense has 7 senior starters. Our defense is strong up the middle of the field, with 3 of the SEC's better defenders in Lewis, Forrest, Stamps. That's the kind of anchor any good defense has to have. As the other players you mentioned get more playing experience, we should have a pretty good defense. 2008 was the best defense I can remember in Lexington since Claiborne was here. This year's defense won't be as good as 2008, but it can approach that if Hatcher stays out of trouble and Flannigan and Walker are healthy.

 

[brianpoe]

Now go back and see how many of those players from those classes are still at Florida. You might be in for a big surprise.

What?


jauk11:

The past five years:

2011 UK ONE four star, Faulkner, out with injury. Florida, ELEVEN four stars.

2012 UK ONE four star, (hope he is great tonight, think he will be) Towles, Florida "only" ten four stars, but three FIVE stars.

2013 UK three four stars, one JC drafted, Florida FOURTEEN four stars and two FIVE stars (Hargraves one)

2014 UK ten four stars, most ever by far, Florida TWELVE, still better, with one five star.

2015 UK two four stars, Conrad playing so far, Florida only five, but still TWO five stars,

Anzolone out but the five star OL Ivey their best per the visitor. Our best raw talent OL is

probably a true freshman, but was a three star.

So, players possibly still around from the past five years, UK seventeen four stars, Florida

FIFTY TWO, but also EIGHT five stars, players like Hargraves and Swanson.






WE HAVE 17 FOUR STARS NOW

FLORIDA HAS 52 4* AND EIGHT 5*

 

[brianpoe]

What does that have to do with what I said? I understand why Brian Poe defends star ratings. LOL! No problem there. But I don't understand how any fan can make a big deal about star ratings, then turn right around and claim that there is no talent gap between Florida's football team and Kentucky's football team. Are you following me there?

I am in total agreement, always have been. It wasn't meant to be a reference to your post, I was going to respond to you in another post and it quoted you on this one - error on my part for not proofreading after posting.

My post was to the same people you were referencing.

 

[Blue Decade]

It's not so much about a loss of talent as it is a loss of experience. You lose 8 four stars one year and replace them with 8 the next then lose 2 of those the next and another one the next and you keep replacing them, then one day you wake up and start the season and all you have at key positions are freshmen. That's what happened to South Carolina and that's what happened to Florida. Now they have a O-line made up with a bunch of talented but very inexperienced kids protecting a quarterback with no experience.

Phil Steeles uses 5 data points to come up with a composite ranking of team experience each year. This year Kentucky ranks 2nd in the SEC and 23rd nationally while Florida ranks last in the SEC and 130th nationally.
The point I'm making is the star counters never bother to look at this and it has a huge impact on a teams ability.

Phil Steele is a static analysis. Probably the best in the business, based on past performance and future projection. But the best teams improve during the season more than their opponents do, and make more breaks for themselves than their opponents make. Phil Steele has to write about more than 100 teams. Even he can't always see everything that is coming. How quickly young teams improve is something that can only be guessed broadly. From that point of view, today's game is fascinating. Can an inexperienced team with a lot of talent go on the road and beat a more experienced team with a better quarterback but a little less overall roster talent? Depends on preparation, coaching, and turnovers. These are things that Phil Steele can't predict. I am biased, but I like Kentucky in this game and I see a big game coming from Towles, Boom, and many Wildcats we signed out of Florida. Juice, Badet, Jo Jo, Westry, McClain, Randolph, Ware, Meant. Our offensive line must play well today, and 40% of them are from Florida.

 

[Blue Decade]

I am in total agreement, always have been. It wasn't meant to be a reference to your post, I was going to respond to you in another post and it quoted you on this one - error on my part for not proofreading after posting.

My post was to the same people you were referencing.

No problem.

 

[brianpoe]

UK QBs/RBs vs UF Linebackers-Edge UK

UK OL vs UF DL(Front 5)-Even

UK WRs/TEs vs UF Secondary-"Maybe" slight edge UK. At worst a wash

UF QBs/RBS vs UK Linebackers-Very slight edge UF.

UF OL vs UK DL(Front 5)-Slight Edge UK

UF WRs/TEs vs UK DBs-Slight Edge UK

Florida's best group, will be matched up against UKs best group. Last year UKS Wide outs outplayed UFs secondary so I don't see justification to believe this year's group won't do the same.

This matchup will come down to QB play, and I feel confident that Towles will outplay Grier.

Wow. I'm not sure about this.

UK OL vs UF DL(Front 5)-Even UF has 2 outstanding Pro Prospects on the DLIne


UK WRs/TEs vs UF Secondary-"Maybe" slight edge UK. At worst a wash ??? UF has the #1 and #12 Pro Prospect corner backs and the #7, 12 and 16 rated safeties.


UF QBs/RBS vs UK Linebackers-Very slight edge UF.


UF OL vs UK DL(Front 5)-Slight Edge UK UK will need more than Melvin showing up today

UF WRs/TEs vs UK DBs-Slight Edge UK


We can win, but it will be because we played better football. If CMS could acquire half the talent of UF... love to see it.

 

[Deeeefense]

Phil Steele is a static analysis. Probably the best in the business, based on past performance and future projection. But the best teams improve during the season more than their opponents do, and make more breaks for themselves than their opponents make. Phil Steele has to write about more than 100 teams. Even he can't always see everything that is coming. How quickly young teams improve is something that can only be guessed broadly. From that point of view, today's game is fascinating. Can an inexperienced team with a lot of talent go on the road and beat a more experienced team with a better quarterback but a little less overall roster talent? Depends on preparation, coaching, and turnovers. These are things that Phil Steele can't predict. I am biased, but I like Kentucky in this game and I see a big game coming from Towles, Boom, and many Wildcats we signed out of Florida. Juice, Badet, Jo Jo, Westry, McClain, Randolph, Ware, Meant. Our offensive line must play well today, and 40% of them are from Florida.

I agree, but Phil's NCAA Experience Chart is not a prediction metric, its a way of quantify a teams overall experience or lack thereof.

 

[Blue Decade]

I agree, but Phil's NCAA Experience Chart is not a prediction metric, its a way of quantify a teams overall experience or lack thereof.

I understand that, but he can't predict how fast young players will learn, or how many mistakes young players will make. I am a Phil Steele fan myself, and I get what he is doing. But Phil's material is just a guide for the season, not an open and shut case.

 

[Rhavicc]

I understand that, but he can't predict how fast young players will learn, or how many mistakes young players will make. I am a Phil Steele fan myself, and I get what he is doing. But Phil's material is just a guide for the season, not an open and shut case.

This is a fact. That said, there's really a ceiling on how much a young player can learn in a short amount of time, and from certain opponents. Obviously Florida's young players have a lot left to learn, as many of them will be playing their first SEC game (and their first road game at that) today. Many of them haven't seen the things that they'll see from Kentucky today, to this point. A lot of new stuff will be thrown their way.

 

[Deeeefense]

I understand that, but he can't predict how fast young players will learn, or how many mistakes young players will make.

And once again , he's not trying to predict.

 

[UKwannabe]

Wow. I'm not sure about this.

UK OL vs UF DL(Front 5)-Even UF has 2 outstanding Pro Prospects on the DLIne


UK WRs/TEs vs UF Secondary-"Maybe" slight edge UK. At worst a wash ??? UF has the #1 and #12 Pro Prospect corner backs and the #7, 12 and 16 rated safeties.


UF QBs/RBS vs UK Linebackers-Very slight edge UF.


UF OL vs UK DL(Front 5)-Slight Edge UK UK will need more than Melvin showing up today

UF WRs/TEs vs UK DBs-Slight Edge UK


We can win, but it will be because we played better football. If CMS could acquire half the talent of UF... love to see it.

Those same defensive back pro prospects got abused last year against the green UK wide outs. It wasn't even like they were wide open, UKs wide outs were simply out playing those defensive backs for 50/50 balls.

Melvin Lewis will have help from Jason Hatcher this week, who is our highest rated Defensive recruit (and a seasoned Junior) since top 100 Micah Johnson.

Offensive Line vs UF front 5. Yes UF has talent, but no Dante Fowler. UK is anchored by 2nd team all SEC John Toth at center, and 2 games into the season, have paved the way for 10 yards per carry and excellent pockets for Towle to find open receivers.

UKs safeties are as good as any in the country and our corners are long and athletic. UF won't have success with anything long and I'm not convinced UF can put together 12 play drives consistently to put points on the board.

UF had pro prospects last year, didn't seem to help.

 

[brianpoe]

Those same defensive back pro prospects got abused last year against the green UK wide outs. It wasn't even like they were wide open, UKs wide outs were simply out playing those defensive backs for 50/50 balls.

True, and hopefully the number one overall cb is rusty and not 100%


Melvin Lewis will have help from Jason Hatcher this week, who is our highest rated Defensive recruit (and a seasoned Junior) since top 100 Micah Johnson.

Hatcher may be rusty as well and I doubt he starts and plays all the downs (1st - 3rd).


Offensive Line vs UF front 5. Yes UF has talent, but no Dante Fowler. UK is anchored by 2nd team all SEC John Toth at center, and 2 games into the season, have paved the way for 10 yards per carry and excellent pockets for Towle to find open receivers.

Pass protection has been solid, last game was good run blocking as well. They do have a very good NG/DT and DE. This will be a big test for the oline, not worried about Toth.


UKs safeties are as good as any in the country and our corners are long and athletic. UF won't have success with anything long and I'm not convinced UF can put together 12 play drives consistently to put points on the board.

AJ is a very good safety as to experience, talent, and being a football player. He could fit in with UF's group.


UF had pro prospects last year, didn't seem to help.

Don't disagree there either.

 

[UKWildcats#8]

Based on recruiting rankings FL has a big talent advantage. That said, there are other reasons for predicting wins and losses that have nothing to do with rankings...hence why I am going with UK tonight.

 

[dingyibvs]

All football coach's want speed as they say speed kills. Florida has routinely been the faster more talented team. One of the first things Mclwain will do is test us on the outside. If they can get outside and cut the corners then it will be a long day. On offense I look for Shannon Dawson to try and wear down the Gators defense by going straight at their front 3-4. If our O-line can create a hole that allows Boom and company to get to the linebackers then we are in business. The key is to force the Gators to add a safety or corner in the box. If they do or they come out already lined up that way " which means they want Patrick too prove he can beat them" then Patty Ice will need Juice Johnson and Dorian to go across the middle about 15 to 20 yards deep where the hole will be. One of the keys will be Vernon Hargreaves an all american corner who comes into the game banged up. He never liked contact much anyway, I would force him to make some tackles and get him into the action. My guess is if he's forced into the action then he'll be on the side line and then the Gators get very average on pass coverage?

Hargreaves loves contact, best tackler on the team. With that said, your key is pretty much right. Our pass defense's weak spot is in the middle of the field, and if Kentucky can run the ball successfully, that could be trouble.

 

[dingyibvs]

Those same defensive back pro prospects got abused last year against the green UK wide outs. It wasn't even like they were wide open, UKs wide outs were simply out playing those defensive backs for 50/50 balls.

Melvin Lewis will have help from Jason Hatcher this week, who is our highest rated Defensive recruit (and a seasoned Junior) since top 100 Micah Johnson.

Offensive Line vs UF front 5. Yes UF has talent, but no Dante Fowler. UK is anchored by 2nd team all SEC John Toth at center, and 2 games into the season, have paved the way for 10 yards per carry and excellent pockets for Towle to find open receivers.

UKs safeties are as good as any in the country and our corners are long and athletic. UF won't have success with anything long and I'm not convinced UF can put together 12 play drives consistently to put points on the board.

UF had pro prospects last year, didn't seem to help.

Actually, for one of the TDs, Johnson was all alone by himself. He won another 50/50 ball against Gorman, who went undrafted and unsigned last year and wasn't even SEC caliber to begin with, for his 2nd TD. That's 14 out of 20 UK points scored in regulation. Some of those same pro prospects were not pro prosects last year because they were just sophomores, and it's precisely because of how young our secondary was that a senior like Gorman got to play despite being one of the worst starting safeties in recent UF history.

 

[ArmyWildcat81]

Jauk, I am sure the lack of facilities hurt UK's recruiting, kids today are all about the bling. But I think the perception, right or wrong, was UK didn't really care about football. I think it was probably correct with the administration, not the fans. Has there ever been a corner cut for UK's basketball program? It's why UGA's basketball program is so bad, no one in administration cares about it, we play home games in an old livestock barn for crying out loud. But the recent focus of improving UK's football facilities, addition of a better coaching staff have resulted in UK's recruiting taking off. But I don't think it would have jumped as much as it has if not for both of those things. We are the last team without an indoor practice facility, which is changing as soon as the season is over. a 140 yard by 80 yard and 65 feet tall on campus facility that is going to have a brick and glass sides because of a by law it has to fit into the architectual scheme of the campus. Going to basically double the cost at over 30 mil.

I always enjoy reading your posts my friend. Hope you stick around all season.

 

[Gator Fever]

Our defensive talent has produced but we have had a lot of busts with our highly rated offensive players lately.

 

[brianpoe]

I must say I appreciate the civility of the Florida football fans. I know some of us may be a bit over the top as to what we think our talent level is compared to the facts of recruiting accomplishments and our losing streak to you guys.

However, we may all agree, that overall less talented on paper UK is playing good football and UF has yet to gain full cohesiveness with their new coach and this may be the best opportunity for the Cats to break the streak?

As to your basketball fans, they mostly suck ass.

 

[UKwannabe]

Actually, for one of the TDs, Johnson was all alone by himself. He won another 50/50 ball against Gorman, who went undrafted and unsigned last year and wasn't even SEC caliber to begin with, for his 2nd TD. That's 14 out of 20 UK points scored in regulation. Some of those same pro prospects were not pro prosects last year because they were just sophomores, and it's precisely because of how young our secondary was that a senior like Gorman got to play despite being one of the worst starting safeties in recent UF history.

The 50/50 play you're referring too, 2 gators actually had an opportunity at the ball.

But let's not kid ourselves. For as much as UF fans throw Jeff Driskel under the bus, he saved UFs as last year with possibly his best performance of his career (along with Robinson, who was just open all the time somehow).

Not only Driskel is gone, but the Ram Matt Jones is gone and that possibly the biggest loss for UF after Fowler. KT is nice but MJ was a college-faux Marshawn Lynch.

Regardless, I think UK has the best group of wide outs in the east. Hargreaves will be matched up against either A)Dorian Baker (Maybe most physical WR in SEC) or B)Blake Bone whom is 6'5 and can go up and get it. Will be fun to watch those individuals battle it out.

 

[LouievileKat]

This just in. Florida still has great highly ranked players.

 

[ArmyWildcat81]

I must say I appreciate the civility of the Florida football fans. I know some of us may be a bit over the top as to what we think our talent level is compared to the facts of recruiting accomplishments and our losing streak to you guys.

However, we may all agree, that overall less talented on paper UK is playing good football and UF has yet to gain full cohesiveness with their new coach and this may be the best opportunity for the Cats to break the streak?

As to your basketball fans, they mostly suck ass.

There is no such thing as a Florida basketball fan. They couldn't even fill their lower arena in that dump of a gym for midnight madness after they won back to back titles.

If you thought the fan base was pathetic under Billy, wait till you see it under this no name guy they hired.

 

[brianpoe]

UK QBs/RBs vs UF Linebackers-Edge UK

UK OL vs UF DL(Front 5)-Even

UK WRs/TEs vs UF Secondary-"Maybe" slight edge UK. At worst a wash

UF QBs/RBS vs UK Linebackers-Very slight edge UF.

UF OL vs UK DL(Front 5)-Slight Edge UK

UF WRs/TEs vs UK DBs-Slight Edge UK

Florida's best group, will be matched up against UKs best group. Last year UKS Wide outs outplayed UFs secondary so I don't see justification to believe this year's group won't do the same.

This matchup will come down to QB play, and I feel confident that Towles will outplay Grier.

"UK OL vs UF DL(Front 5)-Even" Wouldn't be even if it was UF DL (Front 3)

 

[UKwannabe]

"UK OL vs UF DL(Front 5)-Even" Wouldn't be even if it was UF DL (Front 3)

Are you not watching the same game?

Those sacks are on Towles(or wideouts?) for not getting rid of the ball when Florida brings 6 man rush.

Not to mention, UK is having a lot of success running the ball. Just gotta stay ahead of the chains.