Fair and objective player comps and why the media is horrifically wrong on this UK team.

[Son_Of_Saul]

Hang with me for a moment. I think the following player comps are actually a conservative estimate of productive output (edit: not skill set, for those of you who missed it) for the following season.
Top 10 rotation pieces only:

Lamont Butler = close to sophomore-level Wayne Turner (Final Four starter).
Kerr Kriisa = close to junior-level Jeff Sheppard (Final Four rotation piece).
Koby Brea = close to freshman-level Doron Lamb (Final Four starter).
Otega Oweh = close to sophomore-level Kalenna Azubuike (rotation piece on a #1 seed).
Jaxson Robinson = close to a senior-level Darius Miller (6th man for title team).
Collin Chandler = junior-level Jeff Brassow (rotation piece on Final Four team).
Ansley Almonon = sophomore-level Walter McCarty (rotation piece on top 3 seed).
Andrew Carr = sophomore-level Scott Padgett (starter on runner-up team).
Amari Williams = sophomore Nazr Mohammed (actually more skilled than Mohammed - runner-up for title).
Brandon Garrison = freshman-level Jamaal Magloire (rotation piece on Final Four team).

If you took those ten players from UK history, placed them at the noted level of development, and then brought them together next year, you'd have a heck of a team. It wouldn't be a title team, but it would be extremely competitive and they would be an extremely tough out that could beat just about anyone come March.

The media is overthinking lottery-level talent and not placing enough emphasis on quality depth and competent personnel at every position.

 

[DraftCat]

I'm on my 5th beer where you at? @Son_Of_Saul

 

[UKWildcats1987]

People on here have been saying for years preseason doesn't matter. Who cares.

Now that we have a new coach and some of the meaningless polls and pundits aren't getting on the fan viewed bandwagon, people seem to have issues with it.

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

People on here have been saying for years preseason doesn't matter. Who cares.

Now that we have a new coach and some of the meaningless polls and pundits aren't getting on the fan viewed bandwagon, people seem to have issues with it.

The point of the thread is that we have much more talent than a 24th or 25th ranked team. Take Ron Mercer off the 1997 team and put Darius Miller and a sophomore Kalenna Azubuike on there, and that's what you basically have with this upcoming team (minus the cohesion).

If this team forms any type of real chemistry, our floor is a lot higher than people (even fans) suggest.

 

[DraftCat]

For the record I think we are a top 10 team and I've been saying that since we got our last commitment for this year.

New HC and a strong SEC obviously is creating some doubt from certain media members. Which yea sure there is an extreme amount of turnover now days so it's hard to project college players.

I like our chances that's all I'm going to say and I think we have the right coach and right system to compete moving forward.

 

[TOMCATS1990]

It all boils down to how well all these players can come together and play team basketball in one season. CAL struggled to get mostly freshman but seasoned teams as well to progress and play well in March especially the last 5 seasons. We have talent and plenty of elite college talent but not elite NBA talent. Should be a solid Top 20 team and get better as the season rolls along at least I hope we are.

 

[BBNinSC]

They won’t be sleeping on this team long. I expect Kentucky to have people talking before Thanksgiving

 

[know1]

The point of the thread is that we have much more talent than a 24th or 25th ranked team. Take Ron Mercer off the 1997 team and put Darius Miller and a sophomore Kalenna Azubuike on there, and that's what you basically have with this upcoming team (minus the cohesion).

If this team forms any type of real chemistry, our floor is a lot higher than people (even fans) suggest.

Agreed. This team is much better than just in the top 25. There's no way they aren't.

 

[Blueisbest]

Beat the media darlings from Duke and they will have no choice but to re-evaluate this team.

 

[zoid1]

It’s really simple SOS why we are ranked lower than expected. 1. First and foremost new coach who is 0-2 in the big dance. 2. With a new coach comes a new system to learn. 3. None of these players have played together yet or in this system sans Robinson and that's why everybody tags him as a starter and the biggest get yet. 4. We supposedly don't have a star go to player. 5. The SEC is gonna be rough from top to bottom night in night out. 6. Other teams have established coaches, systems and players that have come back this year.

That's what a person who don't wear blue tinted glasses will say like the media who ranked us.

Now here's what UK fans will counter with like me.

1. Our new coach has more talent than he's ever had by far. He's back at his alma mater were he won a title and was captain. He's one of the best up and coming coaches in the nation who is a offensive genius. If BYU can get a 6 seed and make them competitive with all the restrictions what is he gonna do at UK with all our resources.
2. We have Robinson who has played 2 years under coach's system and in the SEC. We have 9 upperclassmen including 7 senior's or super seniors so the learning curve will be much easier and we should be playing his system to it's full potential much quicker than a frosh dominant team.
3. Again we have a big advantage in chemistry because these players are not 18 most are 22 and ready to go out of college with a bang. The learning curve again should be much easier with older players. Plus a big advantage the media doesn't talk about is our experience which includes over 800 games played with over 500 starts among our 9 upperclassmen.
4. We have a bunch of experienced players and play a system that's doesn't require a single player get 30 but we do have a coach that can draws up plays to get us what we need to do to win. But we do have players who will get hot and could drop 30 on any given night in this system.
5. We've dominated the SEC since it's inception and had challenges for the throne but it all runs thru Lexington historically.
6. We play offense and defense to our full potential we can beat anybody on any given night.

 

[Rideordiewildcat]

Hang with me for a moment. I think the following player comps are actually a conservative estimate of productive output for the following season.
Top 10 rotation pieces only;

Lamont Butler = close to sophomore-level Wayne Turner (Final Four starter).
Kerr Kriisa = close to junior-level Jeff Sheppard (Final Four rotation piece).
Koby Brea = close to freshman-level Doron Lamb (Final Four starter).
Otega Oweh = close to sophomore-level Kalenna Azubuike (rotation piece on a #1 seed).
Jaxson Robinson = close to a senior-level Darius Miller (6th man for title team).
Collin Chandler = junior-level Jeff Brassow (rotation piece on Final Four team).
Ansley Almonon = sophomore-level Walter McCarty (rotation piece on top 3 seed).
Andrew Carr = sophomore-level Scott Padgett (starter on runner-up team).
Amari Williams = sophomore Nazr Mohammed (actually more skilled than Mohammed - runner-up for title).
Brandon Garrison = freshman-level Jamaal Magloire (rotation piece on Final Four team).

If you took those ten players from UK history, placed them at the noted level of development, and then brought them together next year, you'd have a heck of a team. It wouldn't be a title team, but it would be extremely competitive and they would be an extremely tough out that could beat just about anyone come March.

The media is overthinking lottery-level talent and not placing enough emphasis on quality depth and competent personnel at every position.

You lost me early with Kerr and Shep.

 

[BBUK]

The point of the thread is that we have much more talent than a 24th or 25th ranked team. Take Ron Mercer off the 1997 team and put Darius Miller and a sophomore Kalenna Azubuike on there, and that's what you basically have with this upcoming team (minus the cohesion).

If this team forms any type of real chemistry, our floor is a lot higher than people (even fans) suggest.

I was "gonna" start drinking a Yuengling or two. Did I already? Like the way you think in any event...

 

[KentuckyMildCats]

I just think it's hard for anyone to speculate - us fans or the media, without actually ever seeing them play together. Im just kicking it until preseason is here

 

[Titpwhami2014]

Hang with me for a moment. I think the following player comps are actually a conservative estimate of productive output for the following season.
Top 10 rotation pieces only;

Lamont Butler = close to sophomore-level Wayne Turner (Final Four starter).
Kerr Kriisa = close to junior-level Jeff Sheppard (Final Four rotation piece).
Koby Brea = close to freshman-level Doron Lamb (Final Four starter).
Otega Oweh = close to sophomore-level Kalenna Azubuike (rotation piece on a #1 seed).
Jaxson Robinson = close to a senior-level Darius Miller (6th man for title team).
Collin Chandler = junior-level Jeff Brassow (rotation piece on Final Four team).
Ansley Almonon = sophomore-level Walter McCarty (rotation piece on top 3 seed).
Andrew Carr = sophomore-level Scott Padgett (starter on runner-up team).
Amari Williams = sophomore Nazr Mohammed (actually more skilled than Mohammed - runner-up for title).
Brandon Garrison = freshman-level Jamaal Magloire (rotation piece on Final Four team).

If you took those ten players from UK history, placed them at the noted level of development, and then brought them together next year, you'd have a heck of a team. It wouldn't be a title team, but it would be extremely competitive and they would be an extremely tough out that could beat just about anyone come March.

The media is overthinking lottery-level talent and not placing enough emphasis on quality depth and competent personnel at every position.

Great comps. It’s going to take them a while to develop chemistry. As we just saw with Team USA, you can bring the best players together but chemistry doesn’t just magically happen. It will take them 20 games to hit their stride. But when they do? They’ll be that team in March you’re praying doesn’t wind up in your region.

 

[jwphelps]

Hang with me for a moment. I think the following player comps are actually a conservative estimate of productive output for the following season.
Top 10 rotation pieces only;

Lamont Butler = close to sophomore-level Wayne Turner (Final Four starter).
Kerr Kriisa = close to junior-level Jeff Sheppard (Final Four rotation piece).
Koby Brea = close to freshman-level Doron Lamb (Final Four starter).
Otega Oweh = close to sophomore-level Kalenna Azubuike (rotation piece on a #1 seed).
Jaxson Robinson = close to a senior-level Darius Miller (6th man for title team).
Collin Chandler = junior-level Jeff Brassow (rotation piece on Final Four team).
Ansley Almonon = sophomore-level Walter McCarty (rotation piece on top 3 seed).
Andrew Carr = sophomore-level Scott Padgett (starter on runner-up team).
Amari Williams = sophomore Nazr Mohammed (actually more skilled than Mohammed - runner-up for title).
Brandon Garrison = freshman-level Jamaal Magloire (rotation piece on Final Four team).

If you took those ten players from UK history, placed them at the noted level of development, and then brought them together next year, you'd have a heck of a team. It wouldn't be a title team, but it would be extremely competitive and they would be an extremely tough out that could beat just about anyone come March.

The media is overthinking lottery-level talent and not placing enough emphasis on quality depth and competent personnel at every position.

Some of the media are Cal pal's and are down playing UK as a favor for Cal.

 

[BlueSince92]

Some of those are stretching/wishful thinking. And I say that not because the comparisons are all that unreasonable, but because, for example, you’re going to need to get lucky in order to have Andrew Carr really wind up pulling the same net weight as Scott Padgett pulled in his title year, once we get deep into the season and the competition heightens and smart opponents with serious size and talent know how to play us and we start having to beat them on what we can get even despite them knowing that.

And you can absolutely get that lucky. But it’s gonna be problematic to get that lucky in every single one of the three or four cases where you would need to get that lucky in order to strictly bear this out. So again, to me this view involves a hearty helping of wishful thinking.

But all the same, everyone is thinking wishfully somehow or other at this point. Even the people basing their outputs on the highest rated players and the most successful teams from last year who have the most promising turnover on paper.

So I don’t find your estimation unreasonable at all, ultimately. If it proves to be a little different than reality winds up playing out, I frankly think it will still be closer than the predictions of most if not all of the people who guessed wildly differently about us, by hedging their bets on the other side.

 

[Cats192]

I’ve said since the roster was finalized: this is a top 15 roster.

This garbage about 9th in the SEC is laughable.

 

[Bkocats]

It’s the unknown
as excited as 95% of us are, no one can really say with any certainty how good we may or may not be
I personally think we are being underestimated
And I like where we are..this team will have to work for position.
I also understand WHY we are rated where we are
It won’t matter at the end of the season

 

[king of cali]

You lost me early with Kerr and Shep.

Same. Didn’t read anything after that.

 

[Swimcat20]

The game, the team, the coach, I don’t know what to think. It’s all changed so much It’s too hard to predict. I think we’ll know what we’ve got by Thanksgiving

 

[YardCat]

The game, the team, the coach, I don’t know what to think. It’s all changed so much It’s too hard to predict. I think we’ll know what we’ve got by Thanksgiving

I agree, if we make 38-40% of our 3’s we will be hard to beat.

 

[Fox2monk]

No idea how we end up, but we have some good pieces. A good coach, and a good system also.

 

[sportspm]

Not sure about those comparisons but I’d like to see roster comparisons with top projected SEC team Alabama. Position by position comparisons

 

[IL Wildcat]

Here's my opinion... it doesn't matter what the so-called "experts" think on this team. I think we have the pieces- the scorers, shooters, passers, and defenders to win a bunch of games. Here is the big question for me...

It's gonna come down to teamwork, cohesion, and chemistry. This is a brand new team, a brand new coach, and a brand new system. He has one player who has played for him before, but even that guy has never played at UK, so it's all new for everyone. So, can Mark Pope get these guys to play together, play as a single mind and unit, and can he communicate his passion for Kentucky well enough to get these guys to feel it themselves?

If he can, this team will be a top 10 team for much of the season. If he and the team struggle with that, the "experts" could be right. And it's possible the truth may lie somewhere in between.

For my part, I'm sold on Pope. I think his enthusiasm is contagious and he will get this team ready to play. I don't know how far this team will go, but I wouldn't be surprised if they at least make the 2nd weekend in March and maybe even to a Final Four.

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

You lost me early with Kerr and Shep.

Same. Didn’t read anything after that.

That's unfortunate. The point of the thread isn't a player skill comparison, but rather, a "productive output" comparison. I went back to more firmly establish that in the first post.

Kriisa averaged 1 point per 3 minutes last year. Sheppard averaged 1 point per 2.3 minutes as a junior (and 1 point per 2.7 points as a sophomore). Junior Sheppard is better than last year's version of Kriisa, but not by much. If you want to talk senior Sheppard, that's a different story. Senior Sheppard is twice the player Kriisa is; but the point of the thread relates to output.

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

Some of those are stretching/wishful thinking. And I say that not because the comparisons are all that unreasonable, but because, for example, you’re going to need to get lucky in order to have Andrew Carr really wind up pulling the same net weight as Scott Padgett pulled in his title year, once we get deep into the season and the competition heightens and smart opponents with serious size and talent know how to play us and we start having to beat them on what we can get even despite them knowing that.

And you can absolutely get that lucky. But it’s gonna be problematic to get that lucky in every single one of the three or four cases where you would need to get that lucky in order to strictly bear this out. So again, to me this view involves a hearty helping of wishful thinking.

But all the same, everyone is thinking wishfully somehow or other at this point. Even the people basing their outputs on the highest rated players and the most successful teams from last year who have the most promising turnover on paper.

So I don’t find your estimation unreasonable at all, ultimately. If it proves to be a little different than reality winds up playing out, I frankly think it will still be closer than the predictions of most if not all of the people who guessed wildly differently about us, by hedging their bets on the other side.

Good thoughts, but that's also why I compared Carr to the sophomore version of Padgett and not the title version of him. 1997 Padgett was a safer output comparison.

 

[BBUK]

Here's my opinion... it doesn't matter what the so-called "experts" think on this team. I think we have the pieces- the scorers, shooters, passers, and defenders to win a bunch of games. Here is the big question for me...

It's gonna come down to teamwork, cohesion, and chemistry. This is a brand new team, a brand new coach, and a brand new system. He has one player who has played for him before, but even that guy has never played at UK, so it's all new for everyone. So, can Mark Pope get these guys to play together, play as a single mind and unit, and can he communicate his passion for Kentucky well enough to get these guys to feel it themselves?

If he can, this team will be a top 10 team for much of the season. If he and the team struggle with that, the "experts" could be right. And it's possible the truth may lie somewhere in between.

For my part, I'm sold on Pope. I think his enthusiasm is contagious and he will get this team ready to play. I don't know how far this team will go, but I wouldn't be surprised if they at least make the 2nd weekend in March and maybe even to a Final Four.

AND Coach Pope DO....... KNOW how to WIN and win BIG...... Talk about his coaching time all you want. He KNOWS what it takes to win it all... 😎

 

[MbergCat]

Beat the media darlings from Duke and they will have no choice but to re-evaluate this team.

This.

 

[bucsrule8872]

We have some talent. We have lots of experience. We have depth. The big question is how they play together. Also, Pope is unproven. Let’s see how he coaches on the big stage with unbelievable pressure.

Should be a fun season, though.

 

[Eagles_Ball]

I think the roster is safely top 25 just on paper. There’s not elite level talent but there solid pieces, and a lot of them. Depth is a plus. Shooting should be a plus. I think the offense will be far better than the defense (pretty consistent with Popes past teams). If things come together, they figure it out as a unit, and have a player or two develop into that elite level player then I think it’s a legit final 4 team. If they struggle to find roles and nobody develops into that dude, I still think it’s a borderline top 25 team and a 6 seed in the tourney.

Here’s the thing that concerns me the most. When you hear people talk they mention JR and Carr as the most likely guys to become that dude. Fellas, that’s an issue. Nothing against those two, but they’re not the best players on a final 4 team.

 

[CHAMPCAT11]

EVERYTHING is new. Throw in NIL and new rules and the whole game is changed. It’s fun to play guessing games but Pope has yet to coach / win a game here and throw in a totally revamped roster and style of play and you have one huge question mark. I’m glad we stand where we stand all the way around (especially Triple C gone forever) but this is a total crap shoot at this point and nobody can do anything but guess. I just hope this is the start of a spectacular new era. BBN deserves something good to happen.

 

[HerrosHeroes]

We are a group of grown men with multi yrs of college experience.
We have size, we have makers, we have lockdown defenders and we have depth.
We have a new coach who is going to allow his players to shoot 40 threes a game and will play man/zone/press and actually run an offense too.

Whats not to like?
This is a minimum FF team.
Minimum.

 

[BlueSince92]

Good thoughts, but that's also why I compared Carr to the sophomore version of Padgett and not the title version of him. 1997 Padgett was a safer output comparison.

Good call, and I agree about 1997 Padgett. That was clearly my A.D.D. getting involved.

 

[treyforuk]

Good thoughts, but that's also why I compared Carr to the sophomore version of Padgett and not the title version of him. 1997 Padgett was a safer output comparison.

I'm just impressed with how well you matched your colors.

 

[Rideordiewildcat]

That's unfortunate. The point of the thread isn't a player skill comparison, but rather, a "productive output" comparison. I went back to more firmly establish that in the first post.

Kriisa averaged 1 point per 3 minutes last year. Sheppard averaged 1 point per 2.3 minutes as a junior (and 1 point per 2.7 points as a sophomore). Junior Sheppard is better than last year's version of Kriisa, but not by much. If you want to talk senior Sheppard, that's a different story. Senior Sheppard is twice the player Kriisa is; but the point of the thread relates to output.

Wasn't Kerr last year a mess with TOs on a bad WVU team?

 

[EliteBlue]

Good call, and I agree about 1997 Padgett. That was clearly my A.D.D. getting involved.

Love when ppl can take a retort to their original opinion, understand a nuance that they may have overlooked initially, and respond with tact and humility….helps with discussion on here immensely.

Seems to be a lost art these days. Kudos to you.

 

[TFCats11]

Some of the media are Cal pal's and are down playing UK as a favor for Cal.

Cal’s pals in the media were his pals because he had UK in the crapper, just where they wanted UK to be, and now that he’s gone, they know those days are numbered. It’s the same lot that always said he shouldn’t take certain NBA jobs when he was rumored to be involved with, for the exact same reason.

Cal = UK mediocrity

 

[zoid1]

Not sure about those comparisons but I’d like to see roster comparisons with top projected SEC team Alabama. Position by position comparisons

Bama
PG- Sears SSR 6-1 190/21.5ppg,4.2rpg,4.0apg,1.6spg
SG- Wrightsell Jr SSR 6-3 190/8.9ppg,3.0rpg,1.4apg
SF- Youngblood SSR 6-4 223/15.3ppg,2.5rpg,2.1apg(USF)
PF- Nelson SSR 6-11 230/11.9ppg,5.9rpg,1.5apg,1.6bpg
C- Omoruyi SSR 6-11 250/10.3ppg,8.3rpg,2.9bpg(NJR)

G- Holloway SO 6-1 180/7.3ppg,1.5rpg,2.7apg(Auburn)
G- Philon FR 6-4 177/#32 by 247sports
G- Mallette SR 6-5 200/14.7ppg,3.2rpg,2.4apg(Pepperdine)
F- Cunningham FR 6-7 175/#43 by 247sports
F- Dioubate SO 6-7 215/2.9ppg,2.4rpg,0.4apg,0.5bpg
F- Reid FR 6-8 220/#15 by 247sports
F- Stevenson SO 6-11 215/5.3ppg,2.7rpg,0.4apg
F- Sherrell FR 6-10 240/#30 by 247sports

UK
PG- Butler SSR 6-2 204/9.3ppg,2.6rpg,3.0apg,1.5spg(SDSU)
SG- Oweh JR 6-4 208/11.4ppg,3.8rpg,1.0apg,1.5spg(Oklahoma)
SF- Robinson SSR 6-6 191/14.2ppg,2.5rpg,1.3apg(BYU)
PF- Carr SSR 6-11 227/13.5ppg,6.8rpg,1.5apg,1.5bpg(WFU)
C- Williams SSR 7-0 265/12.2ppg,7.8rpg,1.9apg,1.8bpg(Drexel)

G- Perry FR 6-1 178/#87 by 247sports
G- Krissa SSR 6-3 190/11.0ppg,2.5rpg,4.7apg(WVU)
G- Chandler FR 6-5 187/#33 in 2022 by 247sports
G- Noah FR 6-5 209/#118 by 247sports
G- Brea SSR 6-7 206/11.1ppg,3.8rpg,1.2apg(Dayton)
F-Almoror SR 6-7 232/16.4ppg,5.1rpg,1.7apg(FDU)
F- Garrison SO 6-10 245/7.5ppg,5.3rpg,1.5apg,1.5bpg(OSU)

 

[Fox2monk]

Bama
PG- Sears SSR 6-1 190/21.5ppg,4.2rpg,4.0apg,1.6spg
SG- Wrightsell Jr SSR 6-3 190/8.9ppg,3.0rpg,1.4apg
SF- Youngblood SSR 6-4 223/15.3ppg,2.5rpg,2.1apg(USF)
PF- Nelson SSR 6-11 230/11.9ppg,5.9rpg,1.5apg,1.6bpg
C- Omoruyi SSR 6-11 250/10.3ppg,8.3rpg,2.9bpg(NJR)

G- Holloway SO 6-1 180/7.3ppg,1.5rpg,2.7apg(Auburn)
G- Philon FR 6-4 177/#32 by 247sports
G- Mallette SR 6-5 200/14.7ppg,3.2rpg,2.4apg(Pepperdine)
F- Cunningham FR 6-7 175/#43 by 247sports
F- Dioubate SO 6-7 215/2.9ppg,2.4rpg,0.4apg,0.5bpg
F- Reid FR 6-8 220/#15 by 247sports
F- Stevenson SO 6-11 215/5.3ppg,2.7rpg,0.4apg
F- Sherrell FR 6-10 240/#30 by 247sports

UK
PG- Butler SSR 6-2 204/9.3ppg,2.6rpg,3.0apg,1.5spg(SDSU)
SG- Oweh JR 6-4 208/11.4ppg,3.8rpg,1.0apg,1.5spg(Oklahoma)
SF- Robinson SSR 6-6 191/14.2ppg,2.5rpg,1.3apg(BYU)
PF- Carr SSR 6-11 227/13.5ppg,6.8rpg,1.5apg,1.5bpg(WFU)
C- Williams SSR 7-0 265/12.2ppg,7.8rpg,1.9apg,1.8bpg(Drexel)

G- Perry FR 6-1 178/#87 by 247sports
G- Krissa SSR 6-3 190/11.0ppg,2.5rpg,4.7apg(WVU)
G- Chandler FR 6-5 187/#33 in 2022 by 247sports
G- Noah FR 6-5 209/#118 by 247sports
G- Brea SSR 6-7 206/11.1ppg,3.8rpg,1.2apg(Dayton)
F-Almoror SR 6-7 232/16.4ppg,5.1rpg,1.7apg(FDU)
F- Garrison SO 6-10 245/7.5ppg,5.3rpg,1.5apg,1.5bpg(OSU)

Bama has a proven coach and system there, probably higher end talent with 2 guys who could be AA ‘s. Solid recruiting class and transfers who need to prove themselves but he’s done well in that regard. His transfers last year led them to a final four.

 

[Mossip]

All player comps seem to have a lot in common complexion wise lol.