I'll have to say, my expectations have shifted multiple times since the end of the season...
When Mitch and Cal first said Calipari would be staying, with some expected changes (I didn't like it, wanted Cal gone), I expected this year's team to be talented and win a number of regular season games, but to ultimately finish the same way as all his recent teams failed, which was to get a decent seed but melt in the postseason.
April 9th, when Calipari announced he was leaving for Arkansas, I expected him to take everyone and leave the cupboard completely bare for whoever the next coach would be. I expected 2024-25 would be either around a .500 season or maybe even a losing season.
April 12th, along comes Mark Pope. My initial expectations weren't very high. In fact, I initially was upset with the hire. I thought UK could do better. I expected we'd be looking at maybe a .500 season.
April 14th: then came his introduction and I was sold on him as the right guy at the right time. But still, the cupboard was bare, and even with a group of Kentucky unforgettables, I thought they'd be struggling to even get to 20 wins and make the Dance.
And then Pope started recruiting and bringing in his assistants and the team started coming together. I like the experience on the team. I like the shooters on the team. I like that these guys can defend, which was something we were painfully missing last season. I expect Pope, an offensive savant, to get these guys scoring well. When Jaxson Robinson withdrew from the NBA draft, I was very excited. My expectations became much higher at this point, but I was still worried about worried about chemistry and cohesiveness from so many transfers. I was expecting a team that would win a good number of games, likely win every game they're favored to win but lose against the best teams. So, I expected a team that gets to 20, maybe up to 22 wins, makes the Dance in 7-10 range.
July 17: Then comes the practices and scrimmage with La Familia where this team beats La Familia and their shooting is off the charts, followed by additional summer workouts and reports. So, at this point, for better or worse, my expectations soared. At this point, I was thinking the team could go deep into the postseason and even make a Final Four with a couple breaks.
October 15: Ok, so now that I've looked at some of the best teams in the league- Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Arkansas, and Texas, and some of these national contenders like Kansas, UConn, Houston, Gonzaga, Duke UNC, and I realize there are a bunch of really good teams this season. The transfer portal and NIL money has allowed coaches to sign key players. So, I still think this UK team has the ability (because they can shoot the ball and they can defend) to be very good. But I feel like Final Fours are out for now in my mind. It seems unreasonable to expect that for a first season with a new coach and an entirely new team. My expectations now are that this team will be very good, win a bunch of games this season, beat some teams they're not expected to beat, make the Dance, and could make a good run in the postseason if the team continues to improve. I'm expecting 24 or so wins, a 4-5 seed, a Sweet 16 with the potential to go deeper. It's much better than I expected when Calipari left but much less than I thought when I was giddy back in July.
