ESPN Insider K. Pelton on undervaluing UK guards (SGA)

[JST390-2]

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 2018 draft: No. 11 (Charlotte Hornets)

I had Gilgeous-Alexander 14th in my subjective rankings ahead of the 2018 draft, three spots lower than he was actually taken and four spots lower than SGA ranked among all players under 25 in our most recent rankings with Mike and Bobby Marks.

Although Gilgeous-Alexander's stats in his one season at Kentucky were certainly not bad, neither did they scream future star. He ranked 20th in my consensus projections and 37th in the stats-only version. However, a Wildcats team with limited floor spacing (Kevin Knox was the only UK starter to make even one 3-pointer per game and frontcourt starters Nick Richards and P.J. Washington combined to make just five 3s) didn't allow SGA to take full advantage of his quickness and playmaking.

This was a case in which Jonathan and Mike had a clear advantage thanks to scouting Gilgeous-Alexander back to the youth level. Mike was especially high on SGA, and it took me about five minutes watching him in a different setting at NBA summer league to see why. Gilgeous-Alexander was instantly successful as a rookie on a competitive LA Clippers team and now looks like a future star for the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Although the challenge of limited floor spacing for super-quick guards is a universal one in college hoops, it's one that seems especially important to understand when scouting perimeter prospects from Kentucky -- many of whom have outperformed their projections in the pros. -- Pelton

Six NBA draft projections we got wrong -- and why we missed

We thought some of these guys would become stars, some wouldn't ... and we were wrong about all six players.

www.espn.com

Draw your own conclusions …

 

[the nail at the foul line]

This guy just hates Cal...

 

[qwesley]

limited floor spacing

welp, they will be able to reuse this write-up for Wallace next year

 

[BlueWorldOrder74]

 

[Juvellino]

If Cal recruited more shooters it would lead to more wins and make players look better. A win win! Unfortunately Cal doesn’t see it.

 

[St.PatterSoN-54-]

If Cal recruited more shooters it would lead to more wins and make players look better. A win win! Unfortunately Cal doesn’t see it.

I'm as down on Cal as the next guy currently, but this is just idiotic.

Do you think he's not actively recruiting good shooters?

It makes just as much sense to say "If Cal only recruited more first team All-Americans, it would lead to more wins"

SMH

 

[YardCat]

Cal looks at the total product not just shooting, he wants them to be long and athletic as well to play defense. And since he refuse’s to play zone we won’t get any great shooters that are slow or can’t guard.

 

[ganner918]

I'm as down on Cal as the next guy currently, but this is just idiotic.

Do you think he's not actively recruiting good shooters?

It makes just as much sense to say "If Cal only recruited more first team All-Americans, it would lead to more wins"

SMH

Cal wants to have one or two shooters, so yeah he "recruits good shooters" but he doesn't make it at all a priority for a point guard or a 4 or 5, and will certainly also then play someone who can't shoot at one of the wings leaving us with one shooter on the floor. Outside of maybe two designated shooters he'll recruit, no he doesn't recruit good shooters, he recruits as YardCat said athletes with size and length who can dribble and defend who may or may not be able to shoot. We usually look a lot better on offense when a couple of those athletes can also shoot.

 

[DreadLox]

Although the challenge of limited floor spacing for super-quick guards is a universal one in college hoops, it's one that seems especially important to understand when scouting perimeter prospects from Kentucky -- many of whom have outperformed their projections in the pros. -- Pelton

SGA's strength isn't being "super-quick". It's poise and control and imagination. His poise and control let him dictate what the defender does, and his imagination lets him get defenders on their backfoot. The reason (I think) why SGA was underestimated is that none of those qualities are measurables. SGA didn't make the big name HS All-Star games -- I saw him at the Derby Festival game. I think that was the one. The players were obviously not in the Top 25, but they were all good HS players who would play significant minutes for their colleges. And SGA toyed with them.

I think people tend to over-estimate the differences among that level of athletes. Particularly if there's someone ranking them. People really do over-estimate players based on some goofball's ranking, I think player rankings are one of the amazingly unintentionally funny parts of sports. Some of these rankings will go 3 "significant" digits. Who could read something like that without laughing?

But anyway, SGA toyed with very good high school players and you don't do that accidentally.

 

[Creed Bratton]

I don't see any of the Duke players on the overrated list like Justice Winslow, Marvin Bagley, Jalen Johnson or Cam Reddish.

 

[RunninRichie]

I don't see any of the Duke players on the overrated list like Justice Winslow, Marvin Bagley, Jalen Johnson or Cam Reddish.

Don’t forget Okafor

 

[cats#1again]

Cal wants to have one or two shooters, so yeah he "recruits good shooters" but he doesn't make it at all a priority for a point guard or a 4 or 5, and will certainly also then play someone who can't shoot at one of the wings leaving us with one shooter on the floor. Outside of maybe two designated shooters he'll recruit, no he doesn't recruit good shooters, he recruits as YardCat said athletes with size and length who can dribble and defend who may or may not be able to shoot. We usually look a lot better on offense when a couple of those athletes can also shoot.

So why did everyone complain all year that Brooks took too many deep jumpers?

 

[Catluv]

Funny I looked at that list Jalen Brunson went like 55 in the third round. I guess Jay Wright ruined the guy. He is tearing up in the NBA. Jay cost the guy a lot of money. Why did he hold him back. I remember when we got SGA people thought we were getting a steal. A lot of guys weren’t on SGA. He was a 4 star coming out of high school.

 

[ganner918]

So why did everyone complain all year that Brooks took too many deep jumpers?

Because he can't shoot threes and long twos are an inefficient shot

 

[St.PatterSoN-54-]

So why did everyone complain all year that Brooks took too many deep jumpers?

Brooks is an incredible shooter, but only an average MAKER.

 

[RunninRichie]

Funny I looked at that list Jalen Brunson went like 55 in the third round. I guess Jay Wright ruined the guy. He is tearing up in the NBA. Jay cost the guy a lot of money. Why did he hold him back. I remember when we got SGA people thought we were getting a steal. A lot of guys weren’t on SGA. He was a 4 star coming out of high school.

There is no third round in the NBA.

 

[cats#1again]

Brooks is an incredible shooter, but only an average MAKER.

No really!!!??

If we pack everyone down low why were people complaining every game about Brooks shooting 19 ft shots

 

[cats#1again]

Because he can't shoot threes and long twos are an inefficient shot

But long twos isn't packing the lane now is it

Brooks was out on the perimeter most every play

 

[jace2012]

These ESPN writers just can’t admit they were wrong about their evaluations of UK players so they are looking for someone to blame. This crap has agenda written all over it

 

[IroquoisPliskin]

Yeah when I think of SGA's time at UK I definitely think disappointing and underachieving

 

[know1]

Whether this guy hates UK or not, this is the kind of stuff that recruits will see and will factor into their decisions. Guards just haven't looked good at UK much in the past several years. They struggle in whatever non-offense we're attempting to run.

 

[true blue1]

Hard to argue the truth..

 

[JimboBBN]

Cal's system is old and shitty. Groundbreaking from ESPN

 

[fatguy87]

Because he can't shoot threes and long twos are an inefficient shot

Ha yep! He was open for long twos for a reason. Teams don't mind him taking it.

 

[FtWorthCat]

SGA's stats at UK: 48.6% fg 40.4% 3pt 81.7% ft 14.4 ppg 4.1 rpg 5.1 apg (2:1 ast/to)

If he was undervalued in the draft it wasn't Cal's fault. Just like it isn't Jay Wright's fault that former Villanova players (see Brunson and others) have been undervalued in the draft. Maybe they overplay their projection because they played for Cal, not in spite of playing for Cal. His track record of producing successful NBA players is not something anyone knowledgeable would find fault with.

 

[bigblueinsanity]

I don't see how anyone could fault sga usage at UK. Hell his usage rate was probably higher than most any cal era player. The way cal used and molded sga took him from unknown to one and done and set the stage for him to be the star he is today.

Plus you can't discount the ridiculous sec officials. Any lane penetration is a guaranteed flop and charge.

 

[ukfan2410]

Funny because when I watched SGA all year at UK it was pretty obvious he could beat athletic SEC guards off the dribble with ease. Translated to the NBA game with more spacing it was easy to see future success. These lazy NBA guys are just that lazy. They use excuses like this to justify why they didn't see what was obvious

 

[Catluv]

There is no third round in the NBA.

My bad 33 in second round. Definitely not first and he has been playing great.

 

[JLucky1]

SGA came in as our lowest rated recruit and was drafted 11th overall. He was way undervalued coming out of high school, was that Cal’s fault too.

 

[fatguy87]

Knox was taken before SGA in the draft despite SGA clearly being the best player on the team according to the eye test and the numbers.

That tells ya all you need to know about the scouts lol

 

[Allcats08]

Wth? SGA was a top 40 guy who was projected to be a multi year player but becomes a lottery pick after one season. It wasn’t like he was drafted off potential. He was all sec player as a freshman. What a stupid take and article. Definitely an agenda with the authors

 

[JC CATS]

I don't see any of the Duke players on the overrated list like Justice Winslow, Marvin Bagley, Jalen Johnson or Cam Reddish.

Zion, don't forget Zion

 

[studentcat]

If Cal recruited more shooters it would lead to more wins and make players look better. A win win! Unfortunately Cal doesn’t see it.

Not a Cal defender here, but also not a total Cal hater. Last year Cal, as well as almost everyone in our fanbase, expected us to have at least 4 players shoot 35-40% from 3. CJ got hurt and never played, Allen lost his stroke and confidence, TyTy never got his shot back after the injury, and Grady sank into a shooting blackhole once Wheeler and TyTy both came back. To say he doesn’t recruit shooters is a pretty bad take. We have had some extremely bad luck with shooters going cold at the end of the year (Booker and Herro stand out), and if our luck goes the other way we probably have another Chip and at least another FF. Let’s see what happens next year…..

 

[fastpaste101]

Cal should run a 6-out zero-in offense. Bleeding edge.

 

[Titpwhami2014]

I truly believe the 2022-2023 team’s fate depends on Toppin developing a reliable 3 point shot. If he can somehow become a respectable 35% three point shooter? It opens up a lot of things. May seem far fetched but he’s shown some shooting potential from mid-range. Plus Obi was a late bloomer and is actually a decent shooter for a 6’9 guy. Hope he spends this summer shooting a 1,000 shots a day!

 

[UK_fanatic]

SGA wasn’t a top 25 recruit and wasn’t expected to be a “one and done”. Under Cal he exceeded all expectations in his first year (and only year) at UK and became and mid first round pick. Now, it’s Cal’s fault he wasn’t drafted and valued higher? As already stated, this guys seems to have an ax to grind with Cal and is also just looking for clicks.

 

[Bhad Rhabies]

I'm as down on Cal as the next guy currently, but this is just idiotic.

Do you think he's not actively recruiting good shooters?

It makes just as much sense to say "If Cal only recruited more first team All-Americans, it would lead to more wins"

SMH

By Cal doesn't see it I believe he means that Cal doesn't like the downsides that comes with good shooters usually, generally less athletic, generally don't drive with the ball, generally not as good of defenders.

So the prototype of a good shooter at the collegiate level typically just doesn't fit into the way Cal likes to play.

So Cal doesn't see a guy like Juzang as a net positive to a team.

I think Juzang led teams have about 9 more NCAA tournament wins than Cal does in the past 3 years, but correlation doesn't equal causation.

 

[Creed Bratton]

Zion, don't forget Zion

I didn't include Zion because when he is healthy he has been a good player.

 

[Eccain01]

Our spacing does tend to be terrible and In a different system SGA prolly would’ve have shined more but that isn’t why they drafted him lower than they should’ve lol. They still drafted Knox in the top 8.

 

[FtWorthCat]

The article would make more sense if it was about Maxey instead of SGA. Maxey was just OK in his year at UK, but he has been an immediate star in the NBA.