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Way-Too-Early Top 25: Who's in, who's out?

In the space of a few weeks, Kentucky has gone from disaster to contender, thanks to a key transfer portal pick-up.
When we last updated the Way-Too-Early top 25 in late June, Kentucky dropping out of the rankings was the biggest storyline. The Wildcats had questions surrounding the status of Antonio Reeves, the health of Aaron Bradshaw, and there was little-to-no experience on the roster, period.

Just a few weeks later, Kentucky is once again the biggest storyline in the updated rankings -- but on the positive side this time. Not only are the Wildcats back in the top 25, they're comfortably inside the top 20 and could rise even more as the summer progresses and feedback from early practices begins to leak.

Reeves is back in the fold, giving John Calipari an experienced perimeter scorer who arguably was Kentucky's best offensive player last season. The Wildcats also added West Virginia transfer Tre Mitchell days after he entered the portal. Mitchell has produced at three different colleges already, and gives an inside-outside threat next to Ugonna Onyenso or Bradshaw down low. Speaking of Bradshaw, the long-term status of his injury seems a bit more positive than it was a few weeks ago. It's still unclear when he might play this season, but it's not all doom and gloom anymore.

Calipari now has four top-25 recruits on the perimeter to play alongside Reeves, as well as a reliable frontcourt producer in Mitchell to go with high-ceiling bigs in Onyenso and Bradshaw. The experience is (somewhat) there, the talent is there and the depth is there. Things are looking up in Lexington.

i

17. Kentucky Wildcats

Previous: Unranked

While questions remain over the experience and youth of this season's squad, there are no doubts about the talent level in Lexington. In ESPN's 2024 mock draft, released late last month, the Wildcats have two of the four highest-ranked college players (Justin Edwards, D.J. Wagner) and five players (Edwards, Wagner, Ugonna Onyenso, Aaron Bradshaw, Robert Dillingam) ranked inside the top 40 overall. If the newcomers can get on the same page, Calipari is spoiled for options.

Projected starting lineup:

D.J. Wagner (No. 4 in ESPN 100)
Antonio Reeves (14.4 PPG)
Justin Edwards (No. 3 in ESPN 100)
Tre Mitchell (11.7 PPG at West Virginia)
Ugonna Onyenso (2.5 PPG)

 
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10-20 seems like a fair range for this team
Dontworryboutit23 …I absolutely love that spot …we won’t have the pressure/expectations of Championship or bust …at the same time we’re ranked right in a spot that gives us time to gel as a team and still have the possibility/capability of making a deep March run …we can be the hunters instead of the hunted …man I love those variables with this young, super talented group …will be fun imo
 
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That's where we should be. Look, you don't add one of the highest ranked recruiting classes this decade, return some promising and/or experienced talent, and land some transfers... and NOT be top25. Sure, maybe a month ago, I can see the argument.. but not now. Kentucky's 2nd unit will be talented enough to win games on it's own.

I also think if this was Duke, they'd be preseason top5 with what we have. And before you question that, Duke WAS top10 preseason last year with their recruiting class, same amount of talent coming back, and a 1st year coach..
 
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That’s cool I guess, doesn’t matter what rank you start at the beginning of the season, it’s about finishing on top and with a title….
 
Dontworryboutit23 …I absolutely love that spot …we won’t have the pressure/expectations of Championship or bust …at the same time we’re ranked right in a spot that gives us time to gel as a team and still have the possibility/capability of making a deep March run …we can be the hunters instead of the hunted …man I love those variables with this young, super talented group …will be fun imo
No disappointments, either, right? "Weird recruiting and portal year". Things are bad when you have a top recruiting class, returning who some think was the best offensive player from the previous year, and you barely crack the top 20 in preseason rankings. Tubby level expectations.
 
No disappointments, either, right? "Weird recruiting and portal year". Things are bad when you have a top recruiting class, returning who some think was the best offensive player from the previous year, and you barely crack the top 20 in preseason rankings. Tubby level expectations.
Expectations are being flushed down the toilet for uk bb. We are preseason ranked about where our fb team is.
 
I believe this team will be better than #17. I’m firmly in the “prove it” mindset, but I think we have a couple of the best players in the country on the roster
They should be, everybody has been burned by UK the last three years so now Cal and the Freshman aren't getting the benefit of the doubt which is probably good. This team easily has top 5 talent.
 
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That's where we should be. Look, you don't add the one of the highest ranked recruiting classes this decade, return some promising and/or experienced talent, and land some transfers... and NOT be top25. Sure, maybe a month ago, I can see the argument.. but not now. Kentucky's 2nd unit will be talented enough to win games on it's own.

I also think if this was Duke, they'd be preseason top5 with what we have. And before you question that, Duke WAS top10 preseason last year with their recruiting class, same amount of talent coming back, and a 1st year coach..
No doubt they would be!
 
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Expectations are being flushed down the toilet for uk bb. We are preseason ranked about where our fb team is.
Where do you see UK fball ranked anywhere near 17?
Vegas has the win total at 6.5 which is pretty embarrassing.
 
That's where we should be. Look, you don't add the one of the highest ranked recruiting classes this decade, return some promising and/or experienced talent, and land some transfers... and NOT be top25. Sure, maybe a month ago, I can see the argument.. but not now. Kentucky's 2nd unit will be talented enough to win games on it's own.

I also think if this was Duke, they'd be preseason top5 with what we have. And before you question that, Duke WAS top10 preseason last year with their recruiting class, same amount of talent coming back, and a 1st year coach..
Can't argue against last years Duke team being very similar in roster construction to this years UK team. However, in the AP's defense, Duke always plays to their preseason ranking in Nov/Dec. Last year being the outlier, which sure, it was Scheyer's first year, was it a sign of things to come or just a random blip? Duke is loaded this season and the upcoming recruiting classes will feel like 2015-2020 levels where they are getting multiple top 5 guys a year.

UK on the other hand, in Nov/Dec generally suffers some non-conference losses, falls out of the top 10-15, then comes back in the pack later in the season. When was the last season UK didn't fall off early, 2017?
 
Can't argue against last years Duke team being very similar in roster construction to this years UK team. However, in the AP's defense, Duke always plays to their preseason ranking in Nov/Dec. Last year being the outlier, which sure, it was Scheyer's first year, was it a sign of things to come or just a random blip? Duke is loaded this season and the upcoming recruiting classes will feel like 2015-2020 levels where they are getting multiple top 5 guys a year.

UK on the other hand, in Nov/Dec generally suffers some non-conference losses, falls out of the top 10-15, then comes back in the pack later in the season. When was the last season UK didn't fall off early, 2017?

Sort of, I guess. I don't think Duke swings for many "home runs" in November/December with scheduling. IIRC, the running joke on Duke for a while was how they'd play next to no one, and rarely travel away for those two months. But, I won't deny that Kentucky has been weak in the early going, thats for sure.

I would also make the argument that the AP really shouldn't be taking into account what a team "generally" does in December.

As for falling off early, this *would* be the first time we had an elite recruiting class since 2017, heh. This roster seems more akin to what we had from 2010-2017, than what we had since.
 
That's where we should be. Look, you don't add one of the highest ranked recruiting classes this decade, return some promising and/or experienced talent, and land some transfers... and NOT be top25. Sure, maybe a month ago, I can see the argument.. but not now. Kentucky's 2nd unit will be talented enough to win games on it's own.

I also think if this was Duke, they'd be preseason top5 with what we have. And before you question that, Duke WAS top10 preseason last year with their recruiting class, same amount of talent coming back, and a 1st year coach..
^^^^Agreed. This is the first year since Cal has been here that I think we are underrated in the preseason rankings and I like it. If this team can play together and embrace what they have it should be a good year of basketball. Time will tell.
 
No disappointments, either, right? "Weird recruiting and portal year". Things are bad when you have a top recruiting class, returning who some think was the best offensive player from the previous year, and you barely crack the top 20 in preseason rankings. Tubby level expectations.
I legitimately have never read a single post from you that isn't doom and gloom. Just an observation. I know the last few years haven't lived up to UK basketball standards, but wow man... it's one negative post after another with you. But hey, you do you!
 
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Sort of, I guess. I don't think Duke swings for many "home runs" in November/December with scheduling. IIRC, the running joke on Duke for a while was how they'd play next to no one, and rarely travel away for those two months. But, I won't deny that Kentucky has been weak in the early going, thats for sure.

I would also make the argument that the AP really shouldn't be taking into account what a team "generally" does in December.

As for falling off early, this *would* be the first time we had an elite recruiting class since 2017, heh. This roster seems more akin to what we had from 2010-2017, than what we had since.
K definitely didn't try to schedule true road games in Nov/Dec outside of the Big10 challenge (road every other year.) Which, for the past 8-9 years, Duke was fielding a team mostly of freshman, that is smart scheduling right? Everything is about your resume' for March, why go play games you know you will lose with freshman?

However, Scheyer is doing things differently. They have a home/home series with Arizona on the books (Cameron this year, Zona next year.) and I think that is a 4 year contract. Plus the ACC/SEC will be a road game every other year. So long story short, they will play 1 true Nov/Dec road power conference game a year, which is the same (or more) than all of the other power teams. Excluding MSU, they play anyone anywhere and it shows in March.

We will see how this elite recruiting class pans out for UK. The rankings of players is very similar to your 2016 class (2017 season), this years is actually a little better. But all of the rumors are about how weak this class is overall at the top. I believe an NBA gm has said that next years draft could possibly be the weakest in over 20 years.
 
I legitimately have never read a single post from you that isn't doom and gloom. Just an observation. I know the last few years haven't lived up to UK basketball standards, but wow man... it's one negative post after another with you. But hey, you do you!
that should tell you something
HE/SHE ALWAYS TROLLS.......................Hmmmmmmm
 
i think our FB team wins 8-9 games (9 will take some luck with this years schedule)
i think our BB team will be between a 1-3 seed
I agree on football.

Basketball I see a 5 seed again. Too many unknowns with Freshmen. You can’t count on every 5 star to be a big time contributor. One, maybe two of our young guys are not going to live up to the hype. That’s just how it works unfortunately.

IF, and it’s a big IF, Dillingham, Wagner, Bradshaw are all who we hope they are, 1-3 is a possibility. Edwards is a can’t miss stud in my opinion.
 
Where do you see UK fball ranked anywhere near 17?
Vegas has the win total at 6.5 which is pretty embarrassing.
Where do you see UK fball ranked anywhere near 17?
Vegas has the win total at 6.5 which is pretty embarrassing.
ESPN has us at 24
 
Expectations are being flushed down the toilet for uk bb. We are preseason ranked about where our fb team is.
Why drag football into it? Football is a whole, different beast. Football in this conference is the deepest grind there is. I’ll take 17-24th in FB.


UK finished unranked in bball. I’m not sure 17 is such a disappointment. UKBB is experiencing the rest of the SEC caring more about b-ball. It won’t be a cakewalk here on out.
 
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Where do you see UK fball ranked anywhere near 17?
Vegas has the win total at 6.5 which is pretty embarrassing.
You missed the point. Shocker. To simplify: the football team would be giddy to be ranked 17th. Aren't ya just tickled peaches that Cal almost went 0-fer in the transfer portal, and got back a player who absolutely did not want to come back to UK? And he had to bring in an offense coach in his FIFTEENTH YEAR just so people would stop calling him out on his dumb Key Top Shot Clock Violation offense? If you're a bonafide UK fan there's no way you can't see what's wrong here.
 
I agree on football.

Basketball I see a 5 seed again. Too many unknowns with Freshmen. You can’t count on every 5 star to be a big time contributor. One, maybe two of our young guys are not going to live up to the hype. That’s just how it works unfortunately.

IF, and it’s a big IF, Dillingham, Wagner, Bradshaw are all who we hope they are, 1-3 is a possibility. Edwards is a can’t miss stud in my opinion.
Has Edwards overcome the negatives in his scouting report? The last video I saw of him mirrored exactly what the critics were saying. We have tendency around here to turn Matt Pilgrims into Michael Jordan.
 
Its all about the freshmen. If they can find consistency then Kentucky can make a run. If they are inconsistent the entire season then it will be a wasted season especially since 4 of them could leave for the NBA draft. If they are consistent then all you need is for Onyenso, Reeves, Thiero, and even Sheppard to fill in their roles. It's a long time before the middle of conference is here. Plenty of time to gel.
 
K definitely didn't try to schedule true road games in Nov/Dec outside of the Big10 challenge (road every other year.) Which, for the past 8-9 years, Duke was fielding a team mostly of freshman, that is smart scheduling right? Everything is about your resume' for March, why go play games you know you will lose with freshman?

However, Scheyer is doing things differently. They have a home/home series with Arizona on the books (Cameron this year, Zona next year.) and I think that is a 4 year contract. Plus the ACC/SEC will be a road game every other year. So long story short, they will play 1 true Nov/Dec road power conference game a year, which is the same (or more) than all of the other power teams. Excluding MSU, they play anyone anywhere and it shows in March.

We will see how this elite recruiting class pans out for UK. The rankings of players is very similar to your 2016 class (2017 season), this years is actually a little better. But all of the rumors are about how weak this class is overall at the top. I believe an NBA gm has said that next years draft could possibly be the weakest in over 20 years.
1. Agree 100%. I've never understood the emphasis on trying to have the hardest schedule. Just try and be in the 50-25th range. I think this has burned Kentucky too many times, and I think Coach K was smart to keep the schedule a bit light. He also had a much more difficult ACC back 5-10-20 years ago, than it is now.. so I sort of get it.

2. Do we know if any of this was setup by Scheyer? Some of the games that are on the upcoming schedule, could have been in the works for well over a year or two. And the last part.. "it shows in March". Does it? Duke went out in the 1st weekend. I'm not sure Scheyer made any real case for his coaching just yet.

3. I'm prepared for it to be mixed. Some recruit will play to his expectations, and someone else will be a bust as a freshman. We will see how bad it truly is, but I don't think its going to be the worst draft in 20 years. Way too early to call that, plus that would also be an indictment on the euro players coming in. RSCI has 3 of our guys in the top6, that's good enough to be one of the better classes, in terms of elite talent, in the last decade. Only Duke and Kentucky have even done this before, and it's only been a few times.

** Edit ** Kentucky has only done that once according to RSCI, with the Twins class. Duke has done it twice with last years class and the Zion class. So that's pretty important to note that in terms of top6, this would be Kentucky's 2nd best class under Cal.
 
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You missed the point. Shocker. To simplify: the football team would be giddy to be ranked 17th. Aren't ya just tickled peaches that Cal almost went 0-fer in the transfer portal, and got back a player who absolutely did not want to come back to UK? And he had to bring in an offense coach in his FIFTEENTH YEAR just so people would stop calling him out on his dumb Key Top Shot Clock Violation offense? If you're a bonafide UK fan there's no way you can't see what's wrong here.
Spot on.
 
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Its all about the freshmen. If they can find consistency then Kentucky can make a run. If they are inconsistent the entire season then it will be a wasted season especially since 4 of them could leave for the NBA draft. If they are consistent then all you need is for Onyenso, Reeves, Thiero, and even Sheppard to fill in their roles. It's a long time before the middle of conference is here. Plenty of time to gel.
It really is more about the coach than the players.
 
Take care of business and ranking will take care of itself. We're going to have opportunity early.
 
I don't give a shit about pre-season rankings anymore. We're usually top 5 every season, and we don't live up to it. Actually, I'm glad we are 17th. Hope we are 17th in all of em. Sounds like a good spot. Now go win games.
 
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