Efficiency numbers halfway through SEC Conference play

[The_Answer1313]

Since we are around the halfway mark in conference play I wanted to take a look during the conference at efficiency numbers.

Team	OE	DE	Diff
Alabama	115.8	84.2	31.6
Tennessee	108.4	86.1	22.3
Texas A&M	109.1	95.9	13.2
Auburn	108.3	98.9	9.4
Florida	100	90.9	9.1
Kentucky	109.3	106.7	2.6
Arkansas	101.4	101	0.4
Missouri	108.6	110.5	-1.9
Georgia	99.7	107.3	-7.6
Mississippi St.	91.1	99.5	-8.4
Mississippi	95.5	107.1	-11.6
Vanderbilt	104.3	117.6	-13.3
LSU	90.1	112.7	-22.6
South Carolina	91	115.7	-24.7

Clearly Alabama has been the class of the SEC going undefeated. Then you got UT looking solidly as the second best team. Then you got Texas AM, Auburn and UF kind of in that 3rd tier with UK clearly behind those teams along with Arkansas. The rest of the SEC teams have been outscored in conference play.

One thing that surprised me was that UK is 2nd in the league in offensive efficiency. Unfortunately we are only 8th in defensive efficiency. We do have a favorable schedule coming up IMO which should help our numbers and move us close to that Auburn/TexasAM/Florida tier. We do get teams like Auburn, UT, Arkansas at home which will help somewhat.

But we absolutely have to get better on defense.

 

[Kuhldaddy]

Interesting and speaks to the fact that defense is our biggest issue, even tho the offense gets talked about the most on this board.

 

[bucsrule8872]

Interesting and speaks to the fact that defense is our biggest issue, even tho the offense gets talked about the most on this board.

Apparently, some people only pay attention when we have the ball.

 

[The_Answer1313]

I’ve been railing that point for so long now.

I mean to be fair our offense isn’t great this season but at least in SEC play we’ve been pretty good through nine games on that side of the ball.

I like looking at these numbers. It’s raw efficiency numbers. It’s what you scored and what you gave up. They are what they are. Not adjusted for SOS but given these are conference games it’s good measure on where you stand among other teams in that conference.

 

[fatguy87]

I’ve been railing that point for so long now.

I mean to be fair our offense isn’t great this season but at least in SEC play we’ve been pretty good through nine games on that side of the ball.

I like looking at these numbers. It’s raw efficiency numbers. It’s what you scored and what you gave up. They are what they are. Not adjusted for SOS but given these are conference games it’s good measure on where you stand among other teams in that conference.

We haven't been good on defense since 2019.

It's much easier to see offensive failures. Anybody can watch a game and see Ware is poor on offense. Ware's defensive prowess compared to his teammates is not as clear, however.

 

[megablue]

We haven't been good on defense since 2019.

It's much easier to see offensive failures. Anybody can watch a game and see Ware is poor on offense. Ware's defensive prowess compared to his teammates is not as clear, however.

We need quality rim protection.

 

[The_Answer1313]

We need quality rim protection.

yeah to me that’s that glaring weakness compared to earlier teams under Cal.

which is why I hope Ugonna becomes better as I feel his shot blocking ability would help in there

 

[track42]

yeah to me that’s that glaring weakness compared to earlier teams under Cal.

which is why I hope Ugonna becomes better as I feel his shot blocking ability would help in there

It's hard to know since Cal won't give him a chance at all.

 

[The_Answer1313]

Once again vs UF we put up 1.12 points per possession, the second best mark on a UF defense all season long (Xavier put up 1.16). However, gave up 1.04 on defense which is only the 14th best mark vs UF this season.

Fix the defense and you fix this team.

 

[Jazzycat]

Interior defense and transition defense has been sub par all year. Play Ugonna and Oscar together and the three guards. Sub in Ware/Collins/Toppin for double teams. UK has struggled stopping the big men for all the teams so far. Need to make this a point of emphasis going forward..

 

[Aike]

How’d we look during that 4 game win streak?

 

[Ocornett]

Where did the vulture thread go? No offense or defense to anyone, but you know it’s true.

 

[ukdesi]

I’ve been railing that point for so long now.

I mean to be fair our offense isn’t great this season but at least in SEC play we’ve been pretty good through nine games on that side of the ball.

I like looking at these numbers. It’s raw efficiency numbers. It’s what you scored and what you gave up. They are what they are. Not adjusted for SOS but given these are conference games it’s good measure on where you stand among other teams in that conference.

I generally agree w your take, but is there any evidence that the defense can improve? Like have we demonstrated it vs anyone. For offense, it seems that we have potential to be an elite offense. Would probably take masterful lineups by Cal and better execution by the team, but I can see the potential.

Just to understand the numbers, if we score two 3 pointers in 5 possessions, that's 6 points/5 possession, which is 1.2 pts/possession, which seems like a high number. Not that hard to do that is it ?

 

[ManitouDan]

yeah to me that’s that glaring weakness compared to earlier teams under Cal.

which is why I hope Ugonna becomes better as I feel his shot blocking ability would help in there

If Cal wouldnt have screwed around with Ware , giving him a bunch minutes that should have went to Ugonna , we might be in a spot where Cal could play him against a big center thats eating Oscar's lunch . Again terrible roster management . Thinking that playing Ware will lead you to a place late in the season where he can be helpful , as opposed to a huge guy with a huge wingspan that could actually help versus a team with a big weapon ( tall center)

 

[JST390-2]

Interesting …I love visuals …thanks for posting

 

[Aike]

How’d we look during that 4 game win streak?

Ok, I just went ahead and calculated this.

During the 4 game win streak starting at UT our offensive efficiency was 114.5. Defensive efficiency 98.1. Differential of 16.4.

So better on offense, better on defense. Maybe we just need to try to play like we did those 4 games?

 

[The_Answer1313]

I generally agree w your take, but is there any evidence that the defense can improve? Like have we demonstrated it vs anyone. For offense, it seems that we have potential to be an elite offense. Would probably take masterful lineups by Cal and better execution by the team, but I can see the potential.

Just to understand the numbers, if we score two 3 pointers in 5 possessions, that's 6 points/5 possession, which is 1.2 pts/possession, which seems like a high number. Not that hard to do that is it ?

IMO I think it's easier to teach defense compared to teaching offense.
Especially with this team. I think we have more to gain on that side of the ball. I think we are currently 20th in offensive efficiency and like 69th on defense so there's just more room to get better on that side of the ball.

Sure 6 points in 5 possession doesn't seem so hard, but maintaining it over say a 70 possession game is lol.

 

[The_Answer1313]

Ok, I just went ahead and calculated this.

During the 4 game win streak starting at UT our offensive efficiency was 114.5. Defensive efficiency 98.1. Differential of 16.4.

So better on offense, better on defense. Maybe we just need to try to play like we did those 4 games?

Yeah and I think Jimmy Dykes actually mentioned that on the telecast. During the win streak we had like a top 15 defense. But last three games we've regressed again. One of those against an Ole Miss team that was without key players and wasn't good even with them.

There's always room for improvement on both sides of the ball. But I can live with 20th on offense. You can't do anything being 20th on offense and only 69th on defense tho.

 

[Sparkaces1]

Cal’s last 3 teams just haven’t the usual shot blocking threat from the early years, that problem will be solved next year, Oscar just isn’t that player.

 

[Aike]

Yeah and I think Jimmy Dykes actually mentioned that on the telecast. During the win streak we had like a top 15 defense. But last three games we've regressed again. One of those against an Ole Miss team that was without key players and wasn't good even with them.

There's always room for improvement on both sides of the ball. But I can live with 20th on offense. You can't do anything being 20th on offense and only 69th on defense tho.

Wallace missed Ole Miss. Wheeler became more prominent again starting second half at Vandy, really.

It’s beating a dead horse, but I think we’re better on both sides of the ball when we play a certain combination of guys, and Wheeler is clearly in a backup role.

Cal is doing what Cal does. Reeves gets beaten back door. OK, make him sit the rest of the half then. Cal isn’t considering how we’ve played overall with Reeves as part of the core group.

Cal isn’t an analytics guy by any stretch. He’s very much a “the way I do it has always worked and it will work this time” guy.

He was spoiled more than a little bit by what happened in 2011 and 2014. He seems to have blocked out how we regressed in 2015, 2019, 2022.

 

[ukdesi]

IMO I think it's easier to teach defense compared to teaching offense.
Especially with this team. I think we have more to gain on that side of the ball. I think we are currently 20th in offensive efficiency and like 69th on defense so there's just more room to get better on that side of the ball.

Sure 6 points in 5 possession doesn't seem so hard, but maintaining it over say a 70 possession game is lol.

I agree in general, but under the assumption that Cal will continue coaching the way he always has (or at least the way most fans perceive), I actually believe the best strategy is to become an elite offense.

If we employed different personnel, schemes, tried to take advantage of matchups, etc. on defense, yes in that scenario I think improving the defense offers the best opportunity. Assuming we will only play man 2 man, everyone switches everyone, with little adjustment or game planning/scouting of the other team, then I think our DE numbers represent who we are -- we may be able to make some incremental improvement, but I think the rest of it is a lot of luck --a function of the matchup and how the other team is shooting. This is fundamentally due to our personnel and their inability to execute on Cal's defensive style at a high level. We struggle to stay in front of our man, we don't have much shot blocking, and except for Wallace, we aren't that tough or physical. We are who we are.

On the other hand, I can at least see the potential to be an elite offense. Of course the luck factors described above play into the OE as well, but I think it is more under our control and plays more to our strengths.
--limit turnovers, take good shots
--be great at off rebounding
--take advantage of transition opportunities and use our athleticism to convert those opportunities
--full focus on FT shooting
--create plays to enable our shooters to get open
--Oscar/Toppin playing to their full potential offensively; Oscar is capable of playing better against length than he did last night; they've both previously demonstrated what they can do, need more consistency and I think game planning a bit vs our opponent would help that

I'm sure there are other factors for OE that I'm missing, but doing all the above would also improve our DE because the opponent wouldn't have as many runouts/transition opportunities.

 

[The_Answer1313]

I don't know.

To be honest, this might be who we are on both sides of the ball.

I think the whole man to man/zone thing is a bit overrated on this board to be honest. We should have the zone in the back of our pocket and maybe use it to switch things up but teams mostly play one type of defense. I just don't think you are ever going to have a whole bunch of possessions where it's going to matter a whole lot to our defensive efficiency.

The other argument has always been we haven't played our best lineup the large bulk of the season. I agree with that one. I think if anything is going to help both of the numbers, it's that the right players are playing the significant amount of mins.

But other than that I don't all of a sudden see us having an elite offense or defense. At this point, I'm settling for good this season. Get into the tournament. Then who knows.

 

[Ineverplayedthegame]

PnR with Wheeler and Oscar is a disaster. Both are undersized. Oscar is concerned mainly with not fouling. Wheeler has not been the same defensively since the LSU game last year. Wallace is the only + defender on the team. Ugo and Adou have the length and athleticism to be good defenders but can’t get off the bench because of Cal’s total inability to manage the game with rotations of more than 7 players.

 

[crawfords corner]

For the season the offense for Kentucky has been fantastic at home. They are 6th in the entire nation in offensive efficiency at home.

On the road it's another story. 230th in offensive efficiency on the road.

NCAA Basketball Stats - NCAA BB Team Offensive Efficiency | TeamRankings.com

NCAA Basketball offensive efficiency, by team.

www.teamrankings.com

Defensive efficiency they are 106th in the nation at home(7th in conference) and on the road they are 122nd(7th in conference). Overall I believe it's in 90s.

NCAA Basketball Stats - NCAA BB Team Defensive Efficiency | TeamRankings.com

NCAA Basketball defensive efficiency, by team.

www.teamrankings.com

At this point in the season unless there is a dramatic change Kentucky is looking at a real chance the season could end with another first round loss and a possible ceiling of the Sweet 16. The NCAAT is not played in Rupp Arena.

 

[The_Answer1313]

For the season the offense for Kentucky has been fantastic at home. They are 6th in the entire nation in offensive efficiency at home.

On the road it's another story. 230th in offensive efficiency on the road.

NCAA Basketball Stats - NCAA BB Team Offensive Efficiency | TeamRankings.com

NCAA Basketball offensive efficiency, by team.

www.teamrankings.com

Defensive efficiency they are 106th in the nation at home(7th in conference) and on the road they are 122nd(7th in conference). Overall I believe it's in 90s.

NCAA Basketball Stats - NCAA BB Team Defensive Efficiency | TeamRankings.com

NCAA Basketball defensive efficiency, by team.

www.teamrankings.com

At this point in the season unless there is a dramatic change Kentucky is looking at a real chance the season could end with another first round loss and a possible ceiling of the Sweet 16. The NCAAT is not played in Rupp Arena.

It's a good point tho I would say a huge portion of our home schedule is played against scrubs in the non conference so that might be inflating raw efficiency numbers a bit there. Conversely we've had quite a bit of higher quality teams on neutral/road courts.

 

[Jjohnb5393]

A rim protector and just one lock down guy that can defend on ball can make a good defensive team . We’ve had those under cal more than not . Superior athletic teams guard well also , and we aren’t that ….even Oscar isn’t what you’d call ‘athletic’ , his footwork is bad sometimes also . If you have the rim guy and the lockdown guy and some athletes , it doesn’t matter as much who’s coaching if the effort is there . Tubby had a top 5 ‘D’ one year with Cliff Hawkins wreaking havoc on-ball ...I think we went 16-0 in the league

 

[crawfords corner]

It's a good point tho I would say a huge portion of our home schedule is played against scrubs in the non conference so that might be inflating raw efficiency numbers a bit there. Conversely we've had quite a bit of higher quality teams on neutral/road courts.

UK will still be playing those better quality teams in the tournament just none of them will be on our home court. For instance, UK is an 11 seed according to Lunardi(I dont pay attention to him just first name that comes to mind. As you know that would put UK against 6th seed which is basically a top 25 team. We all know UK's recent struggles against top 25 teams. It's of the utmost importance UK find a way to go on a long winning streak now and see if they can't rise to a 4-seed. There is a lot of losing to be done by other teams so lets hope they do.


The key to the rest of this season might just lie in the hands of Daimion Collins, literally(I just dont see Ugonna playing much). If he's mentally in a better place now there might just be enough time left for him to end up making a mark on this season. Sure would be nice to have that shot blocker we sorely need.

 

[The_Answer1313]

We absolutely need to get better.

It's getting late too.
But FWIW I guess it's not uncommon for a Cal team to be playing better come March. I'm not sure this team could essentially go on a 2011/2014 type run but at this point we have to hope for that.

 

[fatguy87]

IMO I think it's easier to teach defense compared to teaching offense.
Especially with this team. I think we have more to gain on that side of the ball. I think we are currently 20th in offensive efficiency and like 69th on defense so there's just more room to get better on that side of the ball.

Sure 6 points in 5 possession doesn't seem so hard, but maintaining it over say a 70 possession game is lol.

We haven't had a team in the top 30 of Kenpom adjusted defensive efficiency since 2019. I wonder if the defensive ceiling of the team is actually lower than we may perceive due to some built in deficiencies of the system and player complex.

 

[UKBB4Ever]

We haven't had a team in the top 30 of Kenpom adjusted defensive efficiency since 2019. I wonder if the defensive ceiling of the team is actually lower than we may perceive due to some built deficiencies of the system and player complex.

Oh yeah, we gotta find a way to pin this on Cal.

I’m sure some desk jockey that never played the game can find some numbers to make it about Cal.

 

[ftp000]

Once again vs UF we put up 1.12 points per possession, the second best mark on a UF defense all season long (Xavier put up 1.16). However, gave up 1.04 on defense which is only the 14th best mark vs UF this season.

Fix the defense and you fix this team.

I love the guy, but Oscar wrecked the defensive numbers. His guy scored at will. Defend him better and it's a blowout.

 

[fatguy87]

We absolutely need to get better.

It's getting late too.
But FWIW I guess it's not uncommon for a Cal team to be playing better come March. I'm not sure this team could essentially go on a 2011/2014 type run but at this point we have to hope for that.

That is possible. We could have a good run.

The 2014 team made a great run in large part due to a sudden offensive explosion. They weren't playing lock down defense in the tourney.

Even if our D doesn't improve, we will have a pretty good shot at winning every game if we are scoring 1.15 PPP every game lol.

 

[Bluegrass79]

Our defense ain't that good because our coach refuses to play zone at all.
The league has 14 years on John Calipari and his man-to-man defense and philosophy. Everybody knows how to beat him. Nobody fears him ever playing zone or switching any kind of defense at all...

The only way to overcome this is to go with shot blocking but for some reason John ccc you know refuses to play his shot blocker. Instead he wastes time playing Damien 'I got lucky and done something ' Collins and Lance 'I'm good for five fouls and a stupid haircut ' Ware.

 

[Mike-McD]

Oh yeah, we gotta find a way to pin this on Cal.

I’m sure some desk jockey that never played the game can find some numbers to make it about Cal.

You're the opposite: You will bend yourself into a pretzel to make sure he NEVER takes the blame for anything.

 

[crestcat]

You're the opposite: You will bend yourself into a pretzel to make sure he NEVER takes the blame for anything.

Cow’s players, Cow’s defense. Its always on Cow

 

[The_Answer1313]

Our defense ain't that good because our coach refuses to play zone at all.
The league has 14 years on John Calipari and his man-to-man defense and philosophy. Everybody knows how to beat him. Nobody fears him ever playing zone or switching any kind of defense at all...

The only way to overcome this is to go with shot blocking but for some reason John ccc you know refuses to play his shot blocker. Instead he wastes time playing Damien 'I got lucky and done something ' Collins and Lance 'I'm good for five fouls and a stupid haircut ' Ware.

I don't know. I mean we've had good defenses in the earlier Cal years. But yeah it's like you said we had good shot blocking in those years. Tho there's a bunch of other good defensive teams out there that play primarily man to man that don't block a ton of shots and still are good.

I think it's more of a personnel thing than anything. Not just a lack of shot blocking but just in general guys on this team not all that interested in playing defense. Wallace is good on defense but I struggle to find any one else that plays a ton of mins that I would consider to be "good" on defense.

I suppose he could try Ugonna more which IMO would give us some more rim protection but then you wonder what that might do to the offense.

 

[The_Answer1313]

We haven't had a team in the top 30 of Kenpom adjusted defensive efficiency since 2019. I wonder if the defensive ceiling of the team is actually lower than we may perceive due to some built in deficiencies of the system and player complex.

I wish that on defense we would at least TRY to turn teams over more often. I feel like we have a team that should be able to do this. Under Cal, we've never really had a team that forced a bunch. We are always in the 200s in this category. And I get it. He doesn't want players gambling on defense, but i just don't think it has to be these extreme. I feel like to make up for the lack of rim protecting somewhat we could at least do that.

 

[Aike]

Oh yeah, we gotta find a way to pin this on Cal.

I’m sure some desk jockey that never played the game can find some numbers to make it about Cal.

Are you real?

 

[Aike]

I wish that on defense we would at least TRY to turn teams over more often. I feel like we have a team that should be able to do this. Under Cal, we've never really had a team that forced a bunch. We are always in the 200s in this category. And I get it. He doesn't want players gambling on defense, but i just don't think it has to be these extreme. I feel like to make up for the lack of rim protecting somewhat we could at least do that.

That’s one thing that stands out even during our win streak - we weren’t generating turnovers.

I always think back to that 2015 Duke team, and how they took it to the next level by sticking Winslow at the 4 and pressuring all over the court.

Coach K took it to teams the farther they got and dared the refs to call anything. Cal retreats.

 

[fatguy87]

I wish that on defense we would at least TRY to turn teams over more often. I feel like we have a team that should be able to do this. Under Cal, we've never really had a team that forced a bunch. We are always in the 200s in this category. And I get it. He doesn't want players gambling on defense, but i just don't think it has to be these extreme. I feel like to make up for the lack of rim protecting somewhat we could at least do that.

We make little attempt to disrupt the opponents game plan. Teams with a modicum of competence can manipulate our D and run their stuff unimpeded. We don't gamble, but at the same time the opponent can setup our D to create driving lanes and/or matchups they want.