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Does experience pay?

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catrecruit

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Apr 14, 2006
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Setting aside all the ref/cheating issues for a second, when you look at rosters it appears to point to the need for upperclassmen to gain the prize

UNC - 3 Sr/ 3 Jr./ 1 Soph.

Gonzaga - 1 RS Sr./ 1 Sr./ 2 RS Jr./ 1 Jr./ 1 RS. Soph./ 1 Frosh

Nova last year had an abundance of experience

Our 2012 team needed a once in a lifetime player (AD) and had soph. Jones and Lamb and Senior Miller.....2014 team may have been the exception and it took a couple of heroic efforts from A. Harrison to get us there

Chime in...
 
AD isn't once in a lifetime player...

There are only TWO teams in the nation that actually tries to win with OAD. Duke and Kentucky.

Ironically, these are two schools with most Tourney victories since Coach Cal has gotten to UK. Also Kansas tied or second (I believe...), which also utilizes a lot of freshman.
 
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Yes it does. With all the sloppy play and foul fest during the second half, the Zags actually had a one point lead near the end. From that point on, they had a couple of turnovers and two jacked up threes that had little chance of going in. Their big man was a non-factor. It wasn't the fact that he was defended too well. He missed point blank shots that had bee making all tournament.

Regarding the foul fest, at the start of the second quarter, one of the announcers said the players would have to be careful because the refs were going to call it close in the second half. How did he know that?
 
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catrecruit said:
Setting aside all the ref/cheating issues for a second, when you look at rosters it appears to point to the need for upperclassmen to gain the prize

UNC - 3 Sr/ 3 Jr./ 1 Soph.

Gonzaga - 1 RS Sr./ 1 Sr./ 2 RS Jr./ 1 Jr./ 1 RS. Soph./ 1 Frosh

Nova last year had an abundance of experience

Our 2012 team needed a once in a lifetime player (AD) and had soph. Jones and Lamb and Senior Miller.....2014 team may have been the exception and it took a couple of heroic efforts from A. Harrison to get us there

Chime in...
Click to expand...
IIRC
UK--significant playing time last game
2 seniors.
1 senior a couple of minutes
2 sophomores
3 freshmen
1 freshmen a couple of minutes
 
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Like it or not but Roys' recruiting and missing on the elite talent year in and year out have actually been a blessing for him. He was very close to back to back titles.
 
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catrecruit said:
Setting aside all the ref/cheating issues for a second, when you look at rosters it appears to point to the need for upperclassmen to gain the prize

UNC - 3 Sr/ 3 Jr./ 1 Soph.

Gonzaga - 1 RS Sr./ 1 Sr./ 2 RS Jr./ 1 Jr./ 1 RS. Soph./ 1 Frosh

Nova last year had an abundance of experience

Our 2012 team needed a once in a lifetime player (AD) and had soph. Jones and Lamb and Senior Miller.....2014 team may have been the exception and it took a couple of heroic efforts from A. Harrison to get us there

Chime in...
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No. This was gonzaga first final four in history. I'll take talent every day of the week.
 
CHAMPCAT11 said:
Yes but a good portion of posters will disagree.
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It's true, but it doesn't make it a fact... just because one has upperclass leadership (experience) and good players; inexperienced talent can win it all... AND (as we have witnessed) it will keep you in the hunt 88% of the time.
So our poison has been picked. But let's keep beating the dead horse.
 
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Calsthebomb said:
You can want both. To question if cal cares more about getting guys to leave than winning a championship is absurd.
Click to expand...

Calipari himself said his #1 goal was getting guys to the NBA. That's not me, it's not you...it's Calipari. Obviously both can be done but at this point Calipari needs to step up his game.
 
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As an IU fan and outsider, your teams could use some balance when it comes to this subject. But it's almost funny to complain or have issues with UKs success and Cals leadership of your program. IMO your program is the Yankees of college bball. Now I'm going to go jump off a bridge! Lol
 
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Although it makes me want to pull my hair out watching our young teams year in and year out, I am more than happy with Coach Cal. I say this because I remember the Sutton years (although successful were very boring), Tubby years (for the most part declined after year one), and then the Gillispie years (I won't even go there). We've had two coaches in my lifetime that year in and year out were worthy of being head coach at Kentucky and those are Pitino (don't like him now), and Calipari. They could handle the public relations component, provide an entertaining style, and most of all keep us in the discussion to compete for the national championship year in and year out. For all those that don't like the one-and-done era under Coach Cal....be careful what you wish for. I have seen how boring and bad it can get. Just my opinion.
 
mrschwump said:
Calipari himself said his #1 goal was getting guys to the NBA. That's not me, it's not you...it's Calipari. Obviously both can be done but

at this point Calipari needs to step up his game.
Click to expand...

Really, are you serious with this nonsense??
 
catrecruit said:
Setting aside all the ref/cheating issues for a second, when you look at rosters it appears to point to the need for upperclassmen to gain the prize

UNC - 3 Sr/ 3 Jr./ 1 Soph.

Gonzaga - 1 RS Sr./ 1 Sr./ 2 RS Jr./ 1 Jr./ 1 RS. Soph./ 1 Frosh

Nova last year had an abundance of experience

Our 2012 team needed a once in a lifetime player (AD) and had soph. Jones and Lamb and Senior Miller.....2014 team may have been the exception and it took a couple of heroic efforts from A. Harrison to get us there

Chime in...
Click to expand...
Yes experience pays it pays the layers 18 million .
 
Experience helps,look at who stepped up for us in the SECT and NCAAT.Why is it so hard to admit that there are advantages to having players who have been ben in tournaments before.They know it is their last year and they want to go out with something to remember.Super talented OAD players headed to the NBA are great to have,they can do things other players can't ,but feeling that kind of pressure for the first time is a new experience.

I hate to use UNC as an example but they knew what it was like to lose last year and they wanted to get back to the title game this season,OAD's don't have that understanding.Neither model is 100% right or wrong,but veteran players add value to a team.Other teams have players to return that could go to the NBA,it is not considered a failure like it is here.If we would have had more players return we might have had more championships over the past 8 years,but that is not Cal's model.It is not a question of right or wrong it is how he does things.Veteran players that are good enough to be on the court help teams there is no doubt about that.
 
THey had 3 juniors who were 5 star players and a senior that was a 5 star player. Meeks is a senior that was a 4 star.

They have four 5-star upperclassmen and a litter of 4 star players through their whole roster. It's not like Roy is not doing the same thing we are doing, he just cannot get the top freshman like he used to get them. If you look at his recruiting classes over the last 2-3 years, the talent level has dropped significantly. If they do not get Knox and everyone leaves...on top of possible sanctiong...I could see a drop here soon.
 
Over the past couple of years, experience has paid off. Here are the number of players, by class, that started in the Final Four over the past couple of years:

2017
Freshman - 2
Sophs - 4
Juniors - 7
Seniors - 7

2016
Freshman - 2
Sophs - 3
Juniors - 6
Seniors - 9

We had a decent mix of experienced players and young players this year. We had seniors average 10, 20 and 22 minutes. But, our top 3 guys in scoring were all Freshman. That's a tough way to win at times. 2012 had Sophs as the 2nd and 3rd leading scorers. 2015 had a soph as our leading scorer and a soph and junior as our 4th and 5th leading scorer. Next year is going to be a very heavy freshman team in terms of scoring. We need a good mix to win it all imo.
 
HoptownCat93 said:
THey had 3 juniors who were 5 star players and a senior that was a 5 star player. Meeks is a senior that was a 4 star.

They have four 5-star upperclassmen and a litter of 4 star players through their whole roster. It's not like Roy is not doing the same thing we are doing, he just cannot get the top freshman like he used to get them. If you look at his recruiting classes over the last 2-3 years, the talent level has dropped significantly. If they do not get Knox and everyone leaves...on top of possible sanctiong...I could see a drop here soon.
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This is very true. I made a post a week or so ago comparing our recruiting classes over the past 4 years and it's not even close. Roy rarely gets top 10 players, but he often gets that 20-30 guy who sticks around for 3-4 years. It's turned into success for him in todays game.
 
bthaunert said:
This is very true. I made a post a week or so ago comparing our recruiting classes over the past 4 years and it's not even close. Roy rarely gets top 10 players, but he often gets that 20-30 guy who sticks around for 3-4 years. It's turned into success for him in todays game.
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And he only has 1 committed in 2017 so far. Jackson and Meeks are gone for sure and if they lose Berry they will have a big talent gap.

Do not forget that they had an NIT year after a championship in 2010.
 
I'd also like to point out a big argument against the experience narrative.

UofL in 2014 was coming off a title with a VERY experienced and talented team, the hottest in the country. We had a team filled with Freshman who backed into the tournament. What team played well in the clutch to pull out the victory?
 
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This subject is all opinion. As fans we like the 3-4 year guys, because we feel like we get to know them better, and we feel more connected. But the truth is, a title can be won with many different roster combinations. There is no one correct way to build the roster. As another poster stated, only 2 teams try to do it with OAD, Duke and UK. They have won 2 of the last 6 titles. But the truth is, it takes a lot of things going your way to win, unless you are just 10-15 points better than everybody you play. Officiating is a big factor, and I'm not just talking about bias officiating. If the officials allow teams to play physical, and your team isn't built to handle that, there is a great chance you will lose. Also, all players have on and off nights, regardless of experience, and you just hope you don't end up with several having an off night against a good opponent. So in the end, while we as fans may have a preference on building rosters, the truth is, experience is only one of many factors in winning a title. This year's UNC title should prove that. They got favorable calls down the stretch of at least 3 games that enabled them to keep playing. All that experience could have been sent home in the second round, the EE, or even the Final Four. Not to mention they might have lost last night if not for the injury to the Gonzaga player that was killing them.
 
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catrecruit said:
Setting aside all the ref/cheating issues for a second, when you look at rosters it appears to point to the need for upperclassmen to gain the prize

UNC - 3 Sr/ 3 Jr./ 1 Soph.

Gonzaga - 1 RS Sr./ 1 Sr./ 2 RS Jr./ 1 Jr./ 1 RS. Soph./ 1 Frosh

Nova last year had an abundance of experience

Our 2012 team needed a once in a lifetime player (AD) and had soph. Jones and Lamb and Senior Miller.....2014 team may have been the exception and it took a couple of heroic efforts from A. Harrison to get us there

Chime in...
Click to expand...
You don't need third and fourth-year players but you better have a darn good soph or two. Even the exceedingly talented 2012 championship team was led in scoring in the six NCAA games by sophomore Lamb.
 
HoptownCat93 said:
I'd also like to point out a big argument against the experience narrative.

UofL in 2014 was coming off a title with a VERY experienced and talented team, the hottest in the country. We had a team filled with Freshman who backed into the tournament. What team played well in the clutch to pull out the victory?
Click to expand...
Consider the coach :D
 
It's tough. I dont know how to feel about it. Is it selfish to convince a kid to stay? After all, Cal is UK'S Coach and his job is to help UK succeed. Kids come here because they know Cal won't hold them back. Would they stop coming here if he convinced a few to return every year?
 
When you have over 340 teams playing for a championship, it is hard to be the last one standing. It does not matter what route you take. You can have the best talent, experience, height, quickness, shooting, passing, defending and rebounding, and still not win the championship. You may not have had that little bit of luck you need.
 
mrschwump said:
Calipari himself said his #1 goal was getting guys to the NBA. That's not me, it's not you...it's Calipari. Obviously both can be done but at this point Calipari needs to step up his game.
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Step his game up? Lol. Dudes accomplished more than any coach over the last 8 years.
 
mrschwump said:
Calipari himself said his #1 goal was getting guys to the NBA. That's not me, it's not you...it's Calipari. Obviously both can be done but at this point Calipari needs to step up his game.
Click to expand...
Isn't there an old analysis that the team that wins the NC is the one that has the most NBA players on it? I think we can throw that theory completely out the window...has there been a season since Cal has been at UK that he hasn't had at least 2-4 first rounders. Now that is talent. SO???
 
sluggercatfan said:
Isn't there an old analysis that the team that wins the NC is the one that has the most NBA players on it? I think we can throw that theory completely out the window...has there been a season since Cal has been at UK that he hasn't had at least 2-4 first rounders. Now that is talent. SO???
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OAD era has sort of turned that stat on its ear. Go back a decade and that stat will tell you a lot.

Now ... you've got programs like Washington and Cal (Berkeley) sending lots of players to the draft and missing the tourney altogether.
 
Smashcat said:
You don't need third and fourth-year players but you better have a darn good soph or two.
Click to expand...

Personally, I think this was disproved by the 2014 team that played 8 freshman and an inconsistent though sometimes great sophomore alex poythress.
Give me the Fox, Monk, Towns of the world over the Meeks, Jackson, Berry of the world anyday and I'll take my chances with their inexperience rather than hoping the old guys win a title and don't choke like Jayhawks always do.

It's more about the Jimmie's and the Joe's than anything else, and having some experienced players eventually is inevitable even with Cal's philosophy which the naysayers may as well come to terms with the reality that it isn't going to significantly change anytime soon. These threads are always comparing one or two schools, namely UK and Duke to the field of UL, KU, UNC, Uconn, and VIllanova and everyone else.
 
UKDC80 said:
Like it or not but Roys' recruiting and missing on the elite talent year in and year out have actually been a blessing for him. He was very close to back to back titles.
Click to expand...

Roy didn't do squat with McCants, May, and Felton in their second years after he got to UNC. Didn't win a title the next year without convincing them to come back. All three would have been OAD at UK.

He had six McDonalds All Americans this year. Maybe his "trick" is signing the 20-25 guys and not the 1-10 guys in that group.

I would argue his 2011 team was better than this one. Maybe 2012 too until Kendall Marshall got hurt. Didn't get to the Final Four with either of them. It's insane that he got Harrison Barnes for two years and didn't make a Final Four.

This year the tournament was flat out set up and run for UNC to win. No one will ever convince me otherwise. The NCAA wanted the big TV ratings after last year's gem of a championship game, and the best storyline was UNC coming back. Just look today at all the headlines that include the word "redemption." Like Villanova stole a title from them last year.
 
2 of the most overrated things in life:

College basketball bench coaching and having an experienced team
 
Will never convince me that a team made up of OADs will win a title. I will have to see it to believe it.

A team with a comb of stud freshman plus experienced guys can win clearly but a team where the main focus is OADs, IMO, will never win a title.
 
UK almost went 40-0 with 4 freshmen and 4 sophomores. It takes an insane amount of luck to win 6 games in the tournament but some people on here think championships are just easy to come by. We have 8 in 78 years and that's 2nd most all time. UNCheat has 6 in 78 years. Duke has 5 in 78 years. Louisville has 3 in 78 years. I'll take my chances with 5 star freshmen over 3 star seniors
 
You guys act like there's a magic formula that these maniacal, detail obsessed coaches haven't noticed yet.

There's not. It's too random. Talent doesn't always win because it's single elimination. Experience doesn't always win because sometimes it clicks for the talent on a given night.

But by all means, go yearn for the Carolina model with one title in a longer time frame than we've had with Cal. Somehow that "works" but Cal needs to do better and revamp his approach.
 
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