Dilly and Shep both in Givony's espn NBA mock draft top 5

[DreadLox]

I know he was an ABA all star and the rest, but that was solely because of his crazy rebounding numbers. I'll concede that the man was a rebounding machine, but that was really his only well developed basketball skill ...hence why I think I aptly called him a "rebounding specialist."

And, btw, Swen Nater did not even make his high school team. He had never played organized basketball in his entire life until he went to junior college, and was still extremely raw can be when he showed up at UCLA. Suggesting Bill Walton starting over that guy is comparable to Wagner/Edwards starting over Sheppard/Dillingham is ludicrous.

You let your words ("ludicrous") do a lot of work. By the time he and Walton were together, Nater had also had a redshirt year and was widely considered the 2nd best center in the country.

Lots of people consider Dillingham and Sheppard to be locks to be great professional players. I don't. I have no idea how they'll turn out. The NBA is stuffed to the gills with players most of us have never heard of. Human bodies change and develop at their own rate.

And it's not my job to determine lineups.

 

[Ron Mehico]

That it's incredibly stupid to be whining about Reed not starting. His record indicates that it isn't his strength. His record does indicate he is phenomenal off the bench and at closing games, both of which he does. He also plays the majority of the minutes for freshman most games.

Ok, fair point. However a large complaint as well (and my personal one) is the lineup combinations used this year, especially when it comes to Rob, Reed, and Reeves have been awful and caused us to lose games, do you agree with that? And also, why not start the best possible lineup to start each half, sp we are not in a hole to start games, games that sometimes we’ve lost by only 2 or 4 points. Do you feel that’s a fair criticism?

 

[Thats An Awful Idea]

Ok, fair point. However a large complaint as well (and my personal one) is the lineup combinations used this year, especially when it comes to Rob, Reed, and Reeves have been awful and caused us to lose games, do you agree with that? And also, why not start the best possible lineup to start each half, sp we are not in a hole to start games, games that sometimes we’ve lost by only 2 or 4 points. Do you feel that’s a fair criticism?

Not at all. Have we started any better when Reed started? If you think so, was it as important then if we still lost anyway? If you think we didn't, then what would it really change?

Our starting lineup isn't our problem. Can you point out a game we lost at the start?

The reason our lineup changes a lot is because we don't get a lot of consistency out of any one lineup. We have to adjust a lot to find what is working from game to game. That's a sign of youth, which we have a lot of. We generally make it work.

2 of our recent losses have come off last second shots given up by the same person. It's the one you all keep melting down about not starting.

We start our best defensive lineup. We have no issues putting up points. We have a massive issue not giving up a lot of points. Logically it makes more sense to try to emphasize defense early since it is our weakness.

 

[JC CATS]

Cal is gonna use this to say he can turn 2 bench players into top 5 picks. It's all a marketing ploy at this point.

That's why we bench the starting lineup as early as 2 mins into each half now. It's just for show.

😂😂 You have to be a Republican with that conspiracy theory mind 😆😆😆

 

[Ron Mehico]

Not at all. Have we started any better when Reed started? If you think so, was it as important then if we still lost anyway? If you think we didn't, then what would it really change?

Our starting lineup isn't our problem. Can you point out a game we lost at the start?

The reason our lineup changes a lot is because we don't get a lot of consistency out of any one lineup. We have to adjust a lot to find what is working from game to game. That's a sign of youth, which we have a lot of. We generally make it work.

2 of our recent losses have come off last second shots given up by the same person. It's the one you all keep melting down about not starting.

We start our best defensive lineup. We have no issues putting up points. We have a massive issue not giving up a lot of points. Logically it makes more sense to try to emphasize defense early since it is our weakness.

What do you think about this from a non-biased national source?

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[Thats An Awful Idea]

What do you think about this from a non-biased national source?

Did he state they need to start for us to win? I agree they are part of our best offensive lineups and need to play a lot, but only half of the game is offense, and it's not a problem for us. Our issue is defense, which is where we do struggle a lot. So it does make sense to play the better defensive lineup a lot as well. Our best offensive lineup is also our worst defensive lineup, so we do have to compensate for that.

 

[Ron Mehico]

Did he state they need to start for us to win? I agree they are part of our best offensive lineups and need to play a lot, but only half of the game is offense, and it's not a problem for us. Our issue is defense, which is where we do struggle a lot. So it does make sense to play the better defensive lineup a lot as well. Our best offensive lineup is also our worst defensive lineup, so we do have to compensate for that.

How do you feel about these unbiased stats?

 

[SkyPrince1]

I think top5 is a little high for both of them presently. Like Givony's top5 doesn't have Knecht and I think that's a big mistake. Hard for me to pass on a 6 foot 6 total offensive weapon like that.

That said, if Reed and Dilly keep playing like this, I guess it can happen.

Don't count out Rob for #1 overall.
His floor is Darius Garland.
Sarr and the other kid are nowhere near Wemby.
I think Rob is the biggest sure fire NBA starter in the draft

 

[Thats An Awful Idea]

How do you feel about these unbiased stats?

I feel like they don't separate the fact that his steals are predicated in disrupting passing lanes. It's a gamble that pays off for him around 3x per game, but also gets him beat as much if not more. He doesn't generate a lot of steals from on- ball defense, because he isn't a good on-ball defender. Like, at all. He is actually a very poor on-ball defender.

When he has to do workouts for NBA teams, his inability to beat his man off the dribble coupled with his ability to get beat off the dribble a lot will likely push him back to college for another year.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Don't count out Rob for #1 overall.
His floor is Darius Garland.
Sarr and the other kid are nowhere near Wemby.
I think Rob is the biggest sure fire NBA starter in the draft

Yeah I guess I could see that. I think it's Shep who I'm not as sold on as a top5 pick just yet. I do think his size is going to come into question. Nba teams drafting in the top5 are looking for stars. And there IS a chance, whether we want to admit it or not, that Shep just struggles with NBA size and speed. Kind of like Jimmer. I think he'll be fine. But the possibility is there. And I think an NBA team is going to find it just a little too risky to spend a top5 pick on someone like that.

 

[Ron Mehico]

I feel like they don't separate the fact that his steals are predicated in disrupting passing lanes. It's a gamble that pays off for him around 3x per game, but also gets him beat as much if not more. He doesn't generate a lot of steals from on- ball defense, because he isn't a good on-ball defender. Like, at all. He is actually a very poor on-ball defender.

When he has to do workouts for NBA teams, his inability to beat his man off the dribble coupled with his ability to get beat off the dribble a lot will likely push him back to college for another year.

How do you feel about this coaching by Cal, from February 22nd?

We only have two lineups that have played more than 100 possessions together and only three that have played more than 90.

More fun with analytics:

- Creighton's #1 lineup has played 628 possessions. Purdue's #1 has 432 and their #2 has 267.

- As I just posted, our top 4-man combo has only played 355 possessions together.

- Our most-played 4-man combo is the 4th-worst of 32 different combos that have played at least 100 possessions together. It is one of only 6 of those 32 to have a negative Net Rating. All 6 contain Wagner and not Sheppard.

- None of our bottom-10 4-man combos have Sheppard. Sheppard is only in 5 of our top 10 most-played combos.

- There's not a single 5-man lineup including Sheppard that has a negative Net Rating on the year. He's a part of our best 9 lineups that have played at least 10 possessions. The 9th-best lineup with Sheppard in it has a +22.6 Net Rating. The best lineup without him in it has a +17.3.

- Probably the skill that we are singularly worst at, as a team, is defensive rebounding on 2-point shots. We only get 56.7% of defensive rebounds on close 2s, which is horrendous.

 

[Thats An Awful Idea]

How do you feel about this coaching by Cal, from February 22nd?

How am I supposed to feel about it?

I have already mentioned we change lineups a lot because we have a lot of issues with consistency. I have already said Reed should play a lot, and he does. He is 3rd in minutes behind Reeves and Mitchell, and the most among freshman. He does all of this without starting, which shows starting isn't that important. We also lose 80% of the time he has started. So, again, him coming off the bench seems the best option for everyone except some people of Rupps Rafters.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

It would be nice to give Shep a breather midway into the game, rather than put him in at the 4 minute mark, and force him to play the entire rest of the game because we're behind. I think that's why I'd want him starting. I don't want to lose in the tournament because Shep is gassed from this.

 

[Ron Mehico]

How am I supposed to feel about it?

I have already mentioned we change lineups a lot because we have a lot of issues with consistency. I have already said Reed should play a lot, and he does. He is 3rd in minutes behind Reeves and Mitchell, and the most among freshman. He does all of this without starting, which shows starting isn't that important. We also lose 80% of the time he has started. So, again, him coming off the bench seems the best option for everyone except some people of Rupps Rafters.

How do you feel about this?

I didn’t include this in my analytics post last week because I didn’t want to be mean, but the data would suggest the only thing better for us than Sheppard being on the court is Wagner being off it.

(Note: I don’t actually believe this and it’s probably just that those two don’t play together much among other things, but it is interesting)

Here’s the +/- data, which is a bit more charitable to DJ at least, and shows further how hilariously better we are with Sheppard:

 

[UKBB4Ever]

You mean 2 bench players?

Isn't that awesome that Cal has coached two bench warmers into top 5 picks? Got to hand it to him!!

 

[Thats An Awful Idea]

How do you feel about this?

The same as I have been feeling. How do you feel about 1-4 as a starter?

 

[Cat06]

Swen Nater was not a lottery pick...

Because there was No Lottery then. But he still wouldn't have been a lottery pick. He was the 16th pick of the first round, which is nothing to be embarrassed about.

 

[Ron Mehico]

The same as I have been feeling. How do you feel about 1-4 as a starter?

Good to see we’ve ended this. You see, it’s not just crazy Kentucky fans lol that have been maddened with Cals coaching this season, it’s the national analytics guys as well. There are hundreds of stats I can keep posting showing what a god awful job Cal has done this year. THAT BEING SAID hopefully he’s come around and will consistently play his best lineups moving forward. At least all us Kentucky fans hope so.

 

[Thats An Awful Idea]

Good to see we’ve ended this. You see, it’s not just crazy Kentucky fans lol that have been maddened with Cals coaching this season, it’s the national analytics guys as well. There are hundreds of stats I can keep posting showing what a god awful job Cal has done this year. THAT BEING SAID hopefully he’s come around and will consistently play his best lineups moving forward. At least all us Kentucky fans hope so.

But none of them say Reed needs to start... even Wright said he would go with the same starters.

You just seem to he inferring that is what they are saying because you want it to be true.

Again, if Reed should be starting he wouldn't be 1-4 as a starter.

 

[ukfan1622]

Top two in college and neither good enough

4 of the losses came with the player you all are whining about not starting actually started. He went 1-4 as a starter for a lower winning percentage than Devin Askew. The 3 home losses in a row were with him starting as well.

The reason we had bad record with Sheppard was that it kept Reeves from getting playing time at the 3 or we had zero guards on the bench. Wagner is an important piece, even if he is not as good as Dilly and Shep. If you think the reason we were 1-4 with Sheppard as a starter is because of Sheppard then you know nothing about the game. And by your logic, if Sheppard starting had anything to do with those losses, then we should do worse in when he is on the floor and gets a lot of minutes, right?

Again, we were 1-4 with Sheppard starting because we were short handed in those games. Edwards was playing bad and getting 30+ minutes and several of those games were without some or all of our seven footers. Honestly, if you actually think those losses were because of Sheppard's poor play or poor impact on the team, then you are an idiot. (I don't think you're an idiot; I don't think you really believe it.)

 

[Thats An Awful Idea]

Top two in college and neither good enough

The reason we had bad record with Sheppard was that it kept Reeves from getting playing time at the 3 or we had zero guards on the bench. Wagner is an important piece, even if he is not as good as Dilly and Shep. If you think the reason we were 1-4 with Sheppard as a starter is because of Sheppard then you know nothing about the game. And by your logic, if Sheppard starting had anything to do with those losses, then we should do worse in when he is on the floor and gets a lot of minutes, right?

Again, we were 1-4 with Sheppard starting because we were short handed in those games. Edwards was playing bad and getting 30+ minutes and several of those games were without some or all of our seven footers. Honestly, if you actually think those losses were because of Sheppard's poor play or poor impact on the team, then you are an idiot. (I don't think you're an idiot; I don't think you really believe it.)

All of those issues were present when Wagner started and we still won a lot more.

Sheppard isn't a starter. He is a bench player, and a really good one. The last thing we need is for him starting.

I don’t think it was soley on Sheppard as I don't think any loss is solely on 1 person in a team sport, but I think his starting and having to play more than necessary contributed heavily in all 4 losses he starg3d

 

[WildcatsAndBourbon]

Weird to me that Cal must have made promises to start Wagner that he has to keep, but not to start Dillingham or Bradshaw.

 

[podgejeff_]

Weird to me that Cal must have made promises to start Wagner that he has to keep, but not to start Dillingham or Bradshaw.

I just always assumed Cal's going to have some favoritism towards DJ considering his history with his family.

 

[WestKyBlueBlood]

First, I have no problem, whatsoever, with Reed and Dilly coming off the bench. None whatsoever. Absolutely game changer.

Second, Reed is gone everyone. I know Padgett may think otherwise, but if Reed is a top five pick, let alone lottery at minimum (which he 100% is), he is gone, and he should be. Anyone who thinks he is coming back is getting their hopes up for no reason.

Reed and his Family are 100% all about Kentucky Basketball so I would say with the NIL money it is very possible that He comes back for a second season. This Kid has bled blue since He was born and his Family wants Kentucky back to where we once was. Therefore, it is very possible He comes back. This is not just another Blue Chip from another state.

 

[_ukcat]

Dilly for sure a Lottery pick since his game is built for the Pros. If Reed is a Lottery pick( which IMO he will be) he be crazy not to go,never know what the future holds so better get the money while you can.

 

[UK90]

Dilly for sure a Lottery pick since his game is built for the Pros. If Reed is a Lottery pick( which IMO he will be) he be crazy not to go,never know what the future holds so better get the money while you can.

I think we can remove the “if”, it now appears to be a foregone conclusion.

I just looked through some other updated mock drafts and EVERY one now has him high lottery (and a couple as high as the 3rd or 4th pick). Crazy how much that kid’s stock has skyrocketed.

It’ll take an unholy motherload of NIL money to keep him for another year.

 

[MidseasonTweak]

I agree with most of this post, but NOT the "Cal magic" line. Sheppard and Dillingham are indeed different and special players. But their success has come despite Cal refusing to start them, certainly not because of it.

The fact is, with 8 losses, this team has plainly underachieved in relation to its talent level. Nobody else has nearly as much NBA talent as we do, nobody else has nearly as much depth on the bench, nobody else has multiple lottery picks, etc.

It's inexcusable for this roster to have so many losses, which hardly speaks well of Cal's insistence on not starting his best players.

To be fair, NBA talent doesn't mean great college player necessarily. We get beat by worse talent but better college dudes often enough.