conference realignment rumors
- Thread starter Doctor-J
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The Big 12 is doomed, IMHO. There aren't any great football programs that they can add. And it's all about football. It's a watered down football conference. The only teams anyone really cares about are Texas and Oklahoma.
Right now the SEC, Big Ten, and Pac-12 are way ahead of the Big 12 and the ACC is pulling away quickly.
I look for Texas and Oklahoma to see the light soon and jump to the PAC-12. Then the conference is done.
This is what everyone besides the Big 12 wants. Four super conferences. Four champions. Four playoff spots.
Right now the SEC, Big Ten, and Pac-12 are way ahead of the Big 12 and the ACC is pulling away quickly.
I look for Texas and Oklahoma to see the light soon and jump to the PAC-12. Then the conference is done.
This is what everyone besides the Big 12 wants. Four super conferences. Four champions. Four playoff spots.
Texas wants to have the final say no matter what conference they are in , their desire to be in a conference but also be largely independent is another point that makes it hard to deal with them .
Silly thing to say. The ACC is fairly strong at the top, but they have the worst depth of any P5 conference. After Florida State and Georgia Tech in football, there's a considerable drop-off. Clemson could possibly be a regular contender, but I dunno. The Pac-12 in its up year (this year) is about as good as the SEC in a perceived down year (last year). You hear all about the Pac-12 South, but that's it with them. The B1G is building some quality depth. tOSU, Wisconsin, Michigan State are the regulars. Michigan should get back up there. Gotta feel like Nebraska will bounce back at some point as well.
The Big 12 has a lot of quality teams though, along with a couple of name-brand programs that could bounce back with relative ease. TCU, and Baylor are elite by any standard, Oklahoma is a good team, Texas is a decent team, West Virginia is tough, and Kansas State just needs to find consistency. I'm also not convinced that TCU wasn't the best team in the country last season. All that said, there are few quality programs that they could add to truly benefit them.
If I had to make a list of teams for the Big 12 to consider, I would have to say:
Cincinnati
UConn
Louisiana (Lafayette, although they brand as Louisiana from what I could tell. They've maintained a lot of success in the Sun-Belt)
East Carolina (Every conference needs a Carolina team)
UCF
Boise State
Wichita State
The B-10 will have two open slots; maybe Cincinnati for the rivalry with Ohio State. No worse than Rutgers. And?[/QUOTE]
UCONN? but they aren't good in football. I don't know.
UCONN? but they aren't good in football. I don't know.
I think there are to many teams left out if you have to be in the big four conferences to have a shot at a championship. You have 64 teams total in the big 5 now but that doesn't account for teams like Cincy, Boise St, etc. Maybe four, 18 team conferences. Each with two nine team divisions. Play each team in your division once with four nonconference games and then a conference title matching up the division winners. Winners of that go on to the four team playoff. Basically what you get is an 8 team playoff that would be awesome.
The Oklahoma boosters really want to join the sec. If we pull in another major program it will be them IMO.
Silly? I think not.
Why do you think they chose Bama, OSU, Oregon, and FSU over TCU?
Which program is not like the others?
It's about ratings, my friend. It's about money. TCU is a good program, but they don't have the fan support like the others. And that means less dollars than the others.
The only true "draws" in football are Texas and Oklahoma. If they split, the Big 12 folds. As simple as that. And they should abandon that sinking ship and soon.
The ACC still has FSU, Miami, Virginia Tech, Clemson, GT, and even UNC that are pretty big name brands in football. Don't just consider recent history, go back some years. Overall, the ACC is more stable on the gridiron.
And the program's you mentioned won't have the playoff selection committee drooling.
Without Texas and Oklahoma, the Big 12 is a mid-major football conference.
It's about the money. And in college sports, football equals money. And it's not about winning games as much as it is putting butts in seats, eyeballs on the screen, and people in the t-shirts and hats. No matter how good TCU is, they won't make as much money as Texas, Oklahoma, FSU, Clemson, etc. year in and year out. TCU will always be lil brother to Texas and A&M in the Lone Star state. It doesn't matter if they destroy the Longhorns and Aggies every year for the next ten years, they will not pull in the money that those programs do and I doubt that will ever change.
Sorry to go on a rant, I just took offense to my point of view being called silly. I don't think it is silly at all to think that the SEC, Big Ten, and PAC-12 are ahead of the Big 12 and that the ACC is starting to put distance between itself and the Big 12 in football as well.
It should work like this, IMHO:
SEC champ
Big 10 champ
PAC-12 champ
ACC champ
Seed them, let them play for the title.
If a program feels like they are worthy to play for the title, let them petition one of the power 4 to get in and get their shot.
The only big time programs left out are Texas, Oklahoma, and Notre Dame. And all four of the P4 conferences would take those guys in a heartbeat.
If your program is good enough to be true national contenders, then one of the P4 conferences will add you. If not, then enjoy being in the next tier. You still get to play bowl games. You still get to go to the Big Dance in bball. You could still play in the College World Series.
This would be great for football. It would be more like it is in basketball. The conference championships would be like Elite Eight games. Then the playoffs like the Final Four.
Heck, they could expand to 16 teams each and then divide into four 4 team divisions each and let the top four in each conference play in a conference playoff. So 16 teams would have a legitimate shot at the title.
That would take it out of the selection committees hands. No guess work, if you win your conference playoffs, then you play in the national playoffs. Enough of the TCU's and Boise St.'s crying about getting snubbed. Play with the big boys and you get a shot at the title.
SEC champ
Big 10 champ
PAC-12 champ
ACC champ
Seed them, let them play for the title.
If a program feels like they are worthy to play for the title, let them petition one of the power 4 to get in and get their shot.
The only big time programs left out are Texas, Oklahoma, and Notre Dame. And all four of the P4 conferences would take those guys in a heartbeat.
If your program is good enough to be true national contenders, then one of the P4 conferences will add you. If not, then enjoy being in the next tier. You still get to play bowl games. You still get to go to the Big Dance in bball. You could still play in the College World Series.
This would be great for football. It would be more like it is in basketball. The conference championships would be like Elite Eight games. Then the playoffs like the Final Four.
Heck, they could expand to 16 teams each and then divide into four 4 team divisions each and let the top four in each conference play in a conference playoff. So 16 teams would have a legitimate shot at the title.
That would take it out of the selection committees hands. No guess work, if you win your conference playoffs, then you play in the national playoffs. Enough of the TCU's and Boise St.'s crying about getting snubbed. Play with the big boys and you get a shot at the title.
Texas A&M will never allow Texas to join the SEC. That is funny. If you think that happens then I guess you think FSU, Clemson, GA Tech or even UL could get into the SEC by vote as well.
I've never understood the big issue with taking OK State if it means Oklahoma...but I know people feel it is hard to justify taking two from the same state, especially one like Oklahoma. I just feel Oklahoma is such a big get...taking lil brother (if Oklahoma is ok with it) would be an ok deal.
I've never understood the big issue with taking OK State if it means Oklahoma...but I know people feel it is hard to justify taking two from the same state, especially one like Oklahoma. I just feel Oklahoma is such a big get...taking lil brother (if Oklahoma is ok with it) would be an ok deal.
In my opinion, and I am wrong a TON, There are only 10 teams that they should ever even consider adding if the Big 12 are serious about expansion.
#1 - #5 - Notre Dame - Probably an impossibe "get", but they add immediate credibility to the conference. They have extremely great historical success. Would add a massive new market to the B12's footprint and greatly improve their market share. The question begins and ends with ND. They should have a representative begging them to join 24/7.
#6 - BYU - Great traditional sucess. GREAT academic school. Sell out their arena's for all their home games. Expands their foot print into a new growing market with good longterm growth. Unlikely to agree, but worth the look.
#7 - Boise St - They have proven that they are going to continue to have loads of football success in the future, IMO. Expands the B12 foot print into a new attractive market. Boosts TV viewership. Their other athletic programs are not quite on the B12 level yet, though.
#8 & #9 - (TIE) Memphis and UNLV - HUGE untapped potential. More of a longterm project. No football succes to speak of, but other decent athletic programs. Nice newer stadiums. Expands the B12 foot print into new untapped markets. And the added bonus of nearly UNLIMITED funding between the millions going into Vegas daily and FedEx's desire to turn Memphis into Oregon like Nike.
#10 - Cincinnati - I guess if all of those programs decline, this is what you are left with. The only Cincy fans live in the Cincy city limits. It doesn't do much at all to expand the conference, IMO. If I am the B12 and want to risk an invite on a "city college", I would take UNLV or Memphis before Cincinnati.
Like I said before, I have been wrong before. That is just how I look at it.
Notre Dame and BYU would make the most sense, but would be a really tough sell. With the way they allow Texas to basically be an independent team, I could see them having some sort of similar arrangement with a team of Notre Dame's caliber. Probably not, though. ND has always taken a stand against joining a conference since the beginning of time itself.
It is ALL about "what can the new school add for our conference's foot print and the amount of new TV viewers that can be obtained". Success or geography is not the driving factor into conference realignment. It is all about making more profit via college football.
#1 - #5 - Notre Dame - Probably an impossibe "get", but they add immediate credibility to the conference. They have extremely great historical success. Would add a massive new market to the B12's footprint and greatly improve their market share. The question begins and ends with ND. They should have a representative begging them to join 24/7.
#6 - BYU - Great traditional sucess. GREAT academic school. Sell out their arena's for all their home games. Expands their foot print into a new growing market with good longterm growth. Unlikely to agree, but worth the look.
#7 - Boise St - They have proven that they are going to continue to have loads of football success in the future, IMO. Expands the B12 foot print into a new attractive market. Boosts TV viewership. Their other athletic programs are not quite on the B12 level yet, though.
#8 & #9 - (TIE) Memphis and UNLV - HUGE untapped potential. More of a longterm project. No football succes to speak of, but other decent athletic programs. Nice newer stadiums. Expands the B12 foot print into new untapped markets. And the added bonus of nearly UNLIMITED funding between the millions going into Vegas daily and FedEx's desire to turn Memphis into Oregon like Nike.
#10 - Cincinnati - I guess if all of those programs decline, this is what you are left with. The only Cincy fans live in the Cincy city limits. It doesn't do much at all to expand the conference, IMO. If I am the B12 and want to risk an invite on a "city college", I would take UNLV or Memphis before Cincinnati.
Like I said before, I have been wrong before. That is just how I look at it.
Notre Dame and BYU would make the most sense, but would be a really tough sell. With the way they allow Texas to basically be an independent team, I could see them having some sort of similar arrangement with a team of Notre Dame's caliber. Probably not, though. ND has always taken a stand against joining a conference since the beginning of time itself.
It is ALL about "what can the new school add for our conference's foot print and the amount of new TV viewers that can be obtained". Success or geography is not the driving factor into conference realignment. It is all about making more profit via college football.
I might be talked into UCF. Probably a better candidate than Cincy the more that I think about it.
Growing school, new area for the B12, adds to the foot print, and increases the TV numbers.
Make them my #10 team and demote Cincy to #11 after thinking about it more.
Growing school, new area for the B12, adds to the foot print, and increases the TV numbers.
Make them my #10 team and demote Cincy to #11 after thinking about it more.
Conference realignment is about tv sets in metropolitan areas, (specifically adding metro areas that aren't currently in a conference's footprint that are contiguous) and tv content for conference networks. It's never really been solely about football except maybe Nebraska. Academics, endowment, and research probably play an equal or greater role than football depending on which conference you're talking about. At the end of the day, money, money, and more money. As a Kansas fan living in KC I would subscribe to the B1G or SEC network in a heartbeat if Kansas was a member of either. Currently, both networks are an afterthought to me except for maybe one Saturday football game, and a couple random Sunday afternoon basketball games after the Superbowl and before March Madness.
In my opinion the Big 12 is on the chopping block next. Not sure when, but soon. There aren't really any attractive schools to add. And certainly not for the top schools in the Big 12. B1G, SEC, and the Pac are undeniably more enticing than adding any schools that have been named the last two years. Plus the Big 12 is currently bordering all three of those conferences. It makes sense. More sense than adding random teams several + states away.
I would love for Kansas to get out of the conference. There's really no long term stability or future here for us. The television deals are set up that way too in the Big 12. The writing is on the wall. The top Big 12 teams are Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. In that order. So we certainly aren't going to move first or exclusively. I do worry about other teams in the conference. I'd hate to see old Big 8 members in Iowa State and Kansas State be relegated to the Mountain West.
In my opinion the Big 12 is on the chopping block next. Not sure when, but soon. There aren't really any attractive schools to add. And certainly not for the top schools in the Big 12. B1G, SEC, and the Pac are undeniably more enticing than adding any schools that have been named the last two years. Plus the Big 12 is currently bordering all three of those conferences. It makes sense. More sense than adding random teams several + states away.
I would love for Kansas to get out of the conference. There's really no long term stability or future here for us. The television deals are set up that way too in the Big 12. The writing is on the wall. The top Big 12 teams are Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. In that order. So we certainly aren't going to move first or exclusively. I do worry about other teams in the conference. I'd hate to see old Big 8 members in Iowa State and Kansas State be relegated to the Mountain West.
If the plan is to eventually go to an 8 team playoff, and I believe it REALLY is. Then 5 conferences make sense.
Each winner gets an automatic and then 3 at large bids. It makes it much more exciting and a team making a late season push has a shot to still lose early and be included. It makes it more like March Madness and that will be appealing to the audience.
I think the plan is to go to 8 teams as well. I'm sure they would go to 12 or 16 if they could, but finals and holidays hamper that. And there are only so many weeks from September to January.
Four conferences has always made more sense to me. I guess for nothing other than 2 divisions per conference, 2 spots for each conference. And after what you proposed it does seem kind of boring. All too many times I've seen a team that been on fire late in the season not make the championship game due to an early season loss. Baylor in '12, and countless Pete Carroll teams come to mind. With that being said, even with 8 teams we'll always have the arguments over who was left out. Hell, now Lunardi is doing bubble watch for the play in games for March Madness lol
Four conferences has always made more sense to me. I guess for nothing other than 2 divisions per conference, 2 spots for each conference. And after what you proposed it does seem kind of boring. All too many times I've seen a team that been on fire late in the season not make the championship game due to an early season loss. Baylor in '12, and countless Pete Carroll teams come to mind. With that being said, even with 8 teams we'll always have the arguments over who was left out. Hell, now Lunardi is doing bubble watch for the play in games for March Madness lol
There are two Mountain West teams I think they might consider, Boise St, and Colorado State. CSU is building a new on-campus stadium set to open in 2017. There's no doubt in my mind this is one of the reasons. It also makes sense geographically after all CU was in the Big 12 for a long time. Not that geography has played much of a role in a lot of realignment moves. Colorado is also a fairly large TV market. My own guess is Boise St would get the first nod, but it's possible both could join. Those are the only 2 MW programs that even have a shot at making it in the B12.
I would go one step further: 16 team super conferences. Four divisions. Each division winner goes to the conference playoffs. Then the champion of each conference goes to the national playoffs. All the selection committee has to do is seed them 1-4.
That essentially gives us a 16 team playoff. You want to play for the title, you have to earn it.
This is it in a nut shell. Texas has run the Big 12 from the start and basically dictates what goes on in the Big 12.
It's all about money. And football is the biggest (by far) money maker out there.
Here is KU's dilemma, they have a limited market. No huge urban areas for conferences to expand into. UK would be in the same shape, if UK was not in the SEC already. UK benefits from being a charter member of the strongest conference. It's a good thing they can't vote us out, they probably would. LOL!
KU, like UK, does have basketball, and that helps with merchandising. Still, is that enough to attract a major conference? I don't know.
The biggest prize is Texas. The Big 10 and PAC-12 are going to have a major battle over Texas when they decide to leave the Big 12. The SEC won't be involved because they have A&M already.
Next is Oklahoma. Major name brand. Traditional football program. Some decent-sized cities (OKC and Tulsa). I think the SEC will be involved with them. The SEC could ultimately add Oklahoma, but whoever gets Texas should have a leg up for OU because of that rivalry.
KU will find a home if the conferences decide to expand to 16. Someone will take them in. If the conferences stay at 14, then KU is probably out of luck.
I think the PAC will look to add Texas and Oklahoma to make all four conferences 14 team conferences. Expanding to 16 would water them down too much.
Of course, any conference would take Notre Dame without hesitation. They are already in the ACC in every other sport, so that could be their destination, which would really boost the ACC.
If Texas want to be chief of a conference, they will never be joining any other major Conference.
If Texas wants to play in the playoffs and win another title, they will eventually have to join another conference, IMHO.
I agree with all your points. But what some people don't realize is the tops of college basketball do make money. More money than than half of the power 5 do on football. UK and KU is of course included in that group. And that is considering middling football programs. We both are not known to have strong football. Obviously KU's current situation is much worse. I do think the school actually made a good hire for once, but we likely won't see much improvement this season. Anyways I digress, the top football schools obviously make way more money than the top basketball schools. Obviously Alabama isn't leaving the SEC, and Ohio State isn't leaving the B1G. So, for the sake of argument, we'll assume no one is leaving the ACC, SEC, B1G and the Pac. That leaves Texas, Oklahoma, & Notre Dame as top dogs without a doubt. Then where do you look? Kansas has a great basketball program, one that fans will suscribe to said conference network allowing more content for the network itself. Football isn't going to hold subcribers year round. Basketball will help. That is what I think will happen, but who knows. There's definitely more than enough seats at the table for KU.
Oregon is nothing like Bama, tOSU, or FSU. They're a rising program, finally getting more talent than they've typically gotten. They don't recruit anything like those other 3 programs, they don't have any national titles, nothing like that. The only distinguishable difference between TCU and Oregon right now, is that Oregon has been to 2 national championship games, and TCU only deserves to be in one.
Also, saying that without Texas and Oklahoma, that the Big 12 is a mid-major football conference, well that's just ignorant.
If I had to choose i'd take Oklahoma and Oklahoma State over the Texas schools
Let Texas, Tech, Baylor, TCU go out west
Let Texas, Tech, Baylor, TCU go out west
A conference headlined by TCU, Baylor, WVU, and K-State is a mid-major conference when compared to conferences headlined by OSU, Michigan, MSU, Wisconsin or USC, UCLA, Zona, Oregon, and Washington or FSU, Miami, Clemson, and GT. I won't even talk about the SEC for comparison.
I am not the ignorant one in this conversation. The Big 12 is a second tier conference without Texas and OU. Don't buy into the media hype. They give the Big 12 love every year, but how many titles do they have in the last 10 years? There's a reason.
If you take away the top 2 teams from the ACC, they look completeky different too. Is the ACC a top tier conference if their top 4 programs are Clemson, GaTech, VaTech and BC?
I think to often people try to put NFL rules to college sports. It's a regional thing for people that don't have pro sports. you can't make los Angeles vs New York work in college. It has to Texas vs Oklahoma or Lexington vs Louisville. College towns and fans that travel because this is their pro team. I laugh at Rutgers being a great sleeping giant. Those people have the giants and jets and will never get a following.
And I don't know why people think you have to take an established power. Someone smart should look for what a school could grow into once they join a power conference. If I was the big 12 I would look at Louisiana tech or Louisiana Lafayette. Louisiana would be the second larger state in the BIG 12 footprint now with a football mad population that would grow with some legitimacy.
Then add Memphis which gives Arkansas, Tennessee, and Mississippi affiliates.
Leave west Virginia for dead and hope someone takes them off your hands.
And I don't know why people think you have to take an established power. Someone smart should look for what a school could grow into once they join a power conference. If I was the big 12 I would look at Louisiana tech or Louisiana Lafayette. Louisiana would be the second larger state in the BIG 12 footprint now with a football mad population that would grow with some legitimacy.
Then add Memphis which gives Arkansas, Tennessee, and Mississippi affiliates.
Leave west Virginia for dead and hope someone takes them off your hands.
The ACC isn't a sinking ship looking to add mid-major schools to expand their conference in order to keep them afloat.
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