Arizona, at 9-5 is 13th at Kenpom......best wins are Cincinnati and West Virgina.
We have FOUR wins better than those and are 13-3. 21st.
We have FOUR wins better than those and are 13-3. 21st.
Computer models are stupid
- Thread starter silentsaregolden2.0
- Start date
Our defense is killing us, that's why.
Losing by 20 to Ohio State is a lead boot to the nuts of our Kenpom ranking as well as a few other middling performances.
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HOU is 12-3 has zero Quad 1 wins and is 4th in the NET??? How???
We're 18th with 4 Quad 1 wins and all losses are Quad 1.
WTF???
Even so, Ken Pom has always been silly and way over rated
It seems hard for some people to grasp, but to put it simply, KenPom doesn’t account for wins and losses. It’s simply a measure of how efficiently a team scores and how well they prevent the other team from scoring on a per possession (not per game) basis. In the long run, those things tend to correlate really well with winning, but in small sample sizes, you’ll can get teams whose record either underperforms (Arizona) or outperforms (us) their underlying data. Like with most statistical models, you’ll also occasionally get a few straight up outliers. No one model is perfect, but it’s interesting data if you know what it is and isn’t doing.
Yep.
If we lost to Gonzaga by a point and only lost to Ohio State on a buzzer beater, we'd be ranked higher in Kenpom despite having a worse record.
We haven't really "gained" in ranking during conference play despite 2 high quality wins because we lost by such a large margin to Georgia. We are 2-1 in conference, but we have been outscored overall. We could have lost to Florida and MSU by a point, but beat Georgia by 5 and be higher ranked in Kenpom.
But UK is 4-0 against top 14 teams. Who cares what the defense is ranked if UK keeps winning?
I will say Houston being top 5 in NET while we're 18..is...puzzling. Yes, our losses are all to "unranked teams"..but they're all Quad 1. While we had 3 quad 1 wins to their 0 coming into the night..(now 4 but it hasn't been updated yet.)
That's a head scratcher.
That's a head scratcher.
KenPom isn't really measuring your resume. Unfortunately, Kentucky's defense sucks and that's why they took a hit on KenPom. Their defense has been crushed ever since the Ohio State loss.
Fanta said tonight that Alabama got to the FF last year with a defense at 111 I think, and Miami the year before I think with a defense at 99. Now, neither one made the final game, but it does show that can be overcome. You just can't have an off-night offensively.
This is correct. If we have to have a guy go 7-10 from three, hit 50% from threes and scored 90+ points to eek out wins, that means our defense is weak and that is not a formula for continued success.
Now, having said that, it was a helluva win !!
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Texas A&M is an elite defensive team. Maybe the best in the SEC.
Alabama is an elite offensive team. The best in the country.
Going to be an interesting week at Rupp.
Alabama is an elite offensive team. The best in the country.
Going to be an interesting week at Rupp.
They are better than nothing for some purposes and they can definitely expand your insight into upcoming games if you know how to be really responsible with the information they hold. Which is probably incredibly rare.
But yeah as straight predictors lol. We are 3 and 0 against teams those models said should beat us.
…and 0 and 3 against some key teams they said we should beat. Which in our case makes me wish Kenpom would start accounting for officiating staff.
Because it can lead to 20 point whoopings by inferior teams. Our defense needs to improve or we are going to really be hurting on off nights.
And yet I think no team has ever won the title and been ranked outside of both off/def T10 on there. Could be wrong on that, but it's not the pile of dog crap you think it is.
Believe it’s top 30 or so. It obviously is somewhat of a garbage metric as shown above in a few instances. Those are some egregious examples of terrible rankings by a few teams. It’s clearly flawed.
We all get that the defense needs to get better. Everything on any team needs to improve if you want to advance in March.
But fans are paranoid about the defense while treating those issues like we're the only team in America that has them.
There is no other team in the country that has as many quality wins as we do.
Or option B. play mediocre offensively and defensively and pull it out at the end (Duke game).
Im not doubting that. Im just concerned we aren’t in the same Tier as Auburn and Ewetee just yet. Maybe it’s just because this conference is insanely hard right now but I just don’t feel quite at ease. I feel like we can hang with anyone ONLY when we hit threes. Which isnt awful mind you, I just don’t want to see our season end in March because we couldn’t buy a bucket again.
