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Comparing Eras

kats23

All-SEC
Nov 21, 2007
8,370
4,993
113
Louisville, Ky
Kentucky basketball is on a similar timeline (2021-2024) compared to the last time the program was down this bad (2006-2009). We haven't been to an Elite 8 since 2019. Similarly, 2005 was the last E8 appearance before the downturn of Tubby's last 2 years coupled with the two years of Gillespie. The numbers are:

2006-2009 - 84-52 with 2 tournament wins

2021-2014 - 80-46 with 1 tournament win

We're heading toward dangerous territory here.
 
2005-2006: Tubby lost 13 games, finished 3rd in the SEC, with Sophomores Rondo, Crawford, Bradley, and Morris, Seniors Patrick Sparks, and Ravi Moss, Juniors Bobby Perry, and Sheray Thomas. Remember, the 2004 recruiting class was Tubby's best in his time here. He had them for two years at this point.

He lost 13 games this season because he did an awful job coaching, not because he lacked a talented roster.

2006-2007: Tubby loses 12 games, finishes 4th in the SEC, with Junior Morris, Junior Crawford, Junior Bradley, Senior Perry, Freshman Meeks, Freshman Jasper, Freshman Stevenson.

He lost 13 games this season because his roster could not compete with more talented rosters. Just FYI, Calipari's Memphis team beat this team by 17 in Maui.

2007-2008: Gillispie loses 13 games, finishes 2nd in the SEC, with Seniors Crawford, and Bradley, Sophomore s Meeks and Jasper, and Freshman Patterson.

He lost 13 games because he was working without much talent, and he was out of his league coaching here.

2008-2009: Gillispie loses 14 games, because the wheels fell off the clown show.

2009-10: The only coach who could have done what Calipari did in the renaissance at Kentucky was John Calipari.


Calipari's problem is systemic. He has to return players in order to win. This was paramount to early success and is even more so now.

2009-10 (62.4% of minutes played and 56.7% of scoring return from 2008-09 roster): 35-3 (Elite 8)
2010-11 (18.4% of minutes played and 13.4% of scoring return from 2009-10 roster): 29-9 (Final Four)
2011-12 (50% of minutes played and 54.2% of scoring return from 2010-11 roster): 38-2 (Champions)
2012-13 (7.1% of minutes played and 6.7% of scoring return from 2011-12 roster): 21-12 (NIT)
2013-14 (32.3% of minutes played and 31.2% of scoring return from 2012-13 roster): 29-11 (Championship Game)
2014-15 (64.6% of minutes played and 59.3% of scoring return from 2013-14 roster): 38-1 (Final Four)

2015-16 (21.9% of minutes played and 14.1% of scoring return from 2014-15 roster): 27-9 (Round of 32)
2016-17 (30.9% of minutes played and 24.2% of scoring return from 2015-16 roster): 32-6 (Elite 8)
2017-18 (11.6% of minutes played and 7.4% of scoring return from 2016-17 roster): 26-11 (Sweet 16)
2018-19 (32.7% of minutes played and 31.9% of scoring return from 2017-18 roster): 30-7 (Elite 8)
2019-20 (36.8% of minutes played and 27.2% of scoring return from 2018-19 roster): 25-6 (No Tournament)
2020-21 (7.6% of minutes played and 6.0% of scoring return from 2019-20 roster): 9-16 (No Tournament)
2021-22 (42.2% of minutes played and 41.9% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster): 26-8 (Round of 64)
2022-23 (42.9% of minutes played and 44.3% of scoring return from 2021-22 roster): 22-12 (Round of 32)

2023-24 (18.6% of minutes played and 22.8% of scoring return from 2022-23 roster): 23-10 (Round of 64)


Cal has returned 30% or more of his roster's minutes and scoring nine times at UK. He has made the Elite 8 or better every time except two, 2021-22 and 2022-23 (also, this is the time the transfer portal became a thing). He has made it to the Final Four or better in 3 of those seasons, and the 2019-20 season did not have a tournament, so it is reasonable to believe he would have gotten to the Elite 8 or better.

Cal has returned 30% of the roster's minutes and scoring six times. In those seasons, he has not made it past the Sweet Sixteen, with the exception of 2010-11, when he made the Final Four.

Returning less than 10% of the roster has happened twice, and he went to the NIT (2012-13) and 9-16 in those two years.

Based on these numbers, I would say his two best years of coaching were 2010-11 and 2017-18. He returned less than 20% of his roster from the year before, and still made the Sweet 16 (2018) and Final Four (2011). Honestly, if PJ Washington hit his free throws, it could have been another Final Four in 2018.

Based on these numbers, for UK fans to be hopeful at a major turn-around next year, we would need to return every player who played significant minutes and who had impactful scoring, except for:

Reeves (23% scoring; 15.5% minutes played)
Dillingham (17% scoring; 11.1% minutes played)
Mitchell (9% scoring; 12.2% minutes played)
 
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