Coach Cal at UK is 0-11 when down 10 or more at the half
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Haha- that's interesting? What the hell do you think any coach's winning % is down 10 at half?
That is one of the least interesting stats I've ever heard, actually.
That is one of the least interesting stats I've ever heard, actually.
Seems like a reasonable statistic. How many coaches have done better? I mean out of 200+ games I find it interesting that we have only been down by 10 at the half in 11 of those games.
He won 38 games in a row, I believe that is a record too.
I blame the complaining for that record , either complain better or stop being a fan .
FWIW, I tweeted out that stat (0-11) hastily at halftime last night, but it was in error. I actually had searched on the wrong field. (I searched for all games under Calipari where the final margin was <= -10, which naturally there were no wins. I should have searched for halftime margin <= -10)
The actual stat is UK under Calipari was 1-12 when trailing by 10 or more points at halftime. It's now 1-13 counting the LSU loss. The lone victory under Cal was a game at Mississippi State on 21-FEB-2012.
Link to Boxscore
FWIW, the all-time stat for UK games where they trailed by 10 or more points at halftime is 15 wins to 132 losses. (i.e. 10.2% chance of winning).
Thanks JP Scott for the clarification.
I just hadn't even noticed that we hadn't ever came back and won a game that we were down double digits at the half. That just goes with having a young team every year.
I'll trade that stat for the results we've gotten with Cal.
I just hadn't even noticed that we hadn't ever came back and won a game that we were down double digits at the half. That just goes with having a young team every year.
I'll trade that stat for the results we've gotten with Cal.
I read that Cal is 0-17 when its a night game and they're calling for snow, but it doesn't snow.
Also, FWIW, in case anyone is interested, Cal's record at Kentucky when UK is trailing at halftime is 29 wins to 33 losses.
His record when UK is leading at halftime is 162-6. He's 10-2 when tied at halftime.
Which is not too bad I think.
His record when UK is leading at halftime is 162-6. He's 10-2 when tied at halftime.
Which is not too bad I think.
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It's very interesting when it's halftime and your team is down by 10.
Definitely. After the game, though, not so interesting.
'98 Utah game. Very interesting indeed.It's very interesting when it's halftime and your team is down by 10.
For those interested, below are some charts which show some more detail about UK's chances, given where they stand at halftime.
First is UK's winning percentage vs. their halftime margin.
Basically it seems to suggest that if UK is down by 15 points or more at halftime, then historically they essentially have no shot to come back and win. The same could be said for the opponent if UK is up by 10 points or more on them at halftime. (maybe common sense but it's nice to see the actual data).
It is interesting that the region between -10 and +15 is fairly linear, which seems to show that for every point in halftime margin, the % chance of winning the game will rise or fall ~4%.
It's also interesting that this (-15 to +10) region is shifted to the right in UK's favor. For example even if UK is at -5 down at halftime, they still have about a 50% chance of winning the game. (as opposed to the opposition who if UK is 5 up on them, they only have about a 30% chance of winning the game etc.) [Although looking at the relatively large number of Calipari winning games when behind at halftime (seen in light blue), I think is a positive sign that he may end up doing better than UK's historic average (shown in dark blue).]
Additional information concerning how often games end up at the different margin levels can be seen in the chart below:
It looks like a pretty normal bell curve. It's noteworthy that the average is ~ +5, which is reflective of UK's historical dominance. Calipari hasn't really coached enough games to really see a good distribution of his games.
Any comments?
Great stuff!For those interested, below are some charts which show some more detail about UK's chances, given where they stand at halftime.
First is UK's winning percentage vs. their halftime margin.
Basically it seems to suggest that if UK is down by 15 points or more at halftime, then historically they essentially have no shot to come back and win. The same could be said for the opponent if UK is up by 10 points or more on them at halftime. (maybe common sense but it's nice to see the actual data).
It is interesting that the region between -10 and +15 is fairly linear, which seems to show that for every point in halftime margin, the % chance of winning the game will rise or fall ~4%.
It's also interesting that this (-15 to +10) region is shifted to the right in UK's favor. For example even if UK is at -5 down at halftime, they still have about a 50% chance of winning the game. (as opposed to the opposition who if UK is 5 up on them, they only have about a 30% chance of winning the game etc.) [Although looking at the relatively large number of Calipari winning games when behind at halftime (seen in light blue), I think is a positive sign that he may end up doing better than UK's historic average (shown in dark blue).]
Additional information concerning how often games end up at the different margin levels can be seen in the chart below:
It looks like a pretty normal bell curve. It's noteworthy that the average is ~ +5, which is reflective of UK's historical dominance. Calipari hasn't really coached enough games to really see a good distribution of his games.
Any comments?
I have to ask about that -48ish? What game was that? Wow.For those interested, below are some charts which show some more detail about UK's chances, given where they stand at halftime.
First is UK's winning percentage vs. their halftime margin.
Basically it seems to suggest that if UK is down by 15 points or more at halftime, then historically they essentially have no shot to come back and win. The same could be said for the opponent if UK is up by 10 points or more on them at halftime. (maybe common sense but it's nice to see the actual data).
It is interesting that the region between -10 and +15 is fairly linear, which seems to show that for every point in halftime margin, the % chance of winning the game will rise or fall ~4%.
It's also interesting that this (-15 to +10) region is shifted to the right in UK's favor. For example even if UK is at -5 down at halftime, they still have about a 50% chance of winning the game. (as opposed to the opposition who if UK is 5 up on them, they only have about a 30% chance of winning the game etc.) [Although looking at the relatively large number of Calipari winning games when behind at halftime (seen in light blue), I think is a positive sign that he may end up doing better than UK's historic average (shown in dark blue).]
Additional information concerning how often games end up at the different margin levels can be seen in the chart below:
It looks like a pretty normal bell curve. It's noteworthy that the average is ~ +5, which is reflective of UK's historical dominance. Calipari hasn't really coached enough games to really see a good distribution of his games.
Any comments?
I find it amazing that under Cal we have only been down by 10 or more at the half 13 times in 7 years. Some of you on here are silly.
A much better statistic. If you wanna beat cal, get a lead at half. It's about the only way.
For those interested, below are some charts which show some more detail about UK's chances, given where they stand at halftime.
First is UK's winning percentage vs. their halftime margin.
Basically it seems to suggest that if UK is down by 15 points or more at halftime, then historically they essentially have no shot to come back and win. The same could be said for the opponent if UK is up by 10 points or more on them at halftime. (maybe common sense but it's nice to see the actual data).
It is interesting that the region between -10 and +15 is fairly linear, which seems to show that for every point in halftime margin, the % chance of winning the game will rise or fall ~4%.
It's also interesting that this (-15 to +10) region is shifted to the right in UK's favor. For example even if UK is at -5 down at halftime, they still have about a 50% chance of winning the game. (as opposed to the opposition who if UK is 5 up on them, they only have about a 30% chance of winning the game etc.) [Although looking at the relatively large number of Calipari winning games when behind at halftime (seen in light blue), I think is a positive sign that he may end up doing better than UK's historic average (shown in dark blue).]
Additional information concerning how often games end up at the different margin levels can be seen in the chart below:
It looks like a pretty normal bell curve. It's noteworthy that the average is ~ +5, which is reflective of UK's historical dominance. Calipari hasn't really coached enough games to really see a good distribution of his games.
Any comments?
I'm gonna go out on a limb and say you sucked at statistics class.....
Amirite?
It's funny cause a common complaint on the board is how Cal goes to stall ball when leading.
But he's correct in doing so. And his record shows it.
Fewer possessions = Fewer opportunities for the other team to come back
I would be curious to see that first chart with UK and Overall NCAA. For example if UK up 5 at half wins 70% of the time, whats the NCAA average when a team is up 5 at the half?
For those interested, below are some charts which show some more detail about UK's chances, given where they stand at halftime.
First is UK's winning percentage vs. their halftime margin.
Basically it seems to suggest that if UK is down by 15 points or more at halftime, then historically they essentially have no shot to come back and win. The same could be said for the opponent if UK is up by 10 points or more on them at halftime. (maybe common sense but it's nice to see the actual data).
It is interesting that the region between -10 and +15 is fairly linear, which seems to show that for every point in halftime margin, the % chance of winning the game will rise or fall ~4%.
It's also interesting that this (-15 to +10) region is shifted to the right in UK's favor. For example even if UK is at -5 down at halftime, they still have about a 50% chance of winning the game. (as opposed to the opposition who if UK is 5 up on them, they only have about a 30% chance of winning the game etc.) [Although looking at the relatively large number of Calipari winning games when behind at halftime (seen in light blue), I think is a positive sign that he may end up doing better than UK's historic average (shown in dark blue).]
Additional information concerning how often games end up at the different margin levels can be seen in the chart below:
It looks like a pretty normal bell curve. It's noteworthy that the average is ~ +5, which is reflective of UK's historical dominance. Calipari hasn't really coached enough games to really see a good distribution of his games.
Any comments?
Tough to say much given the vertical scale for Calipari thus far. As you say, N is pretty small. The one thing that strikes me is that Calipari's results seem to be skew normal (high end) or both avg and st. dev are going to be higher.
An interesting study would be margin for games contrasted with delta on end of season RPI or similar ranking. That's a bit beyond the scope of the thread though.
That's Turrable! Get rid of him...Cal has to go...
I just checked this stat though...Calipari is 0-0 when using whores to help with recruiting. The man needs to step it up!![[thumb2]](https://ct.yimg.com/mr/uploads/891/1684387.png "Thumbs Up 2 [thumb2]")
PS...not picking on the OP...just wanted to get an easy dig in on UL.
I just checked this stat though...Calipari is 0-0 when using whores to help with recruiting. The man needs to step it up!
PS...not picking on the OP...just wanted to get an easy dig in on UL.
Cal is also 8-1 against Pitino while at UK. Just thought everyone should know that little stat.
I don't see a problem with slowing things down in certain games and throughout the year with a good sizeable lead.
I'd also say given the talent gap between UK and tournament teams I don't like the idea of letting off the gas. We are good enough to run away completely from them and they are good enough to come back on a 10 point deficit.
IMO.
In the top chart, I'm having trouble with the light blue dots that represent Calipari. There are several at the 100% win mark even when down at half time. Am I reading the chart correctly? The dark blue dots make sense to me.For those interested, below are some charts which show some more detail about UK's chances, given where they stand at halftime.
First is UK's winning percentage vs. their halftime margin.
Basically it seems to suggest that if UK is down by 15 points or more at halftime, then historically they essentially have no shot to come back and win. The same could be said for the opponent if UK is up by 10 points or more on them at halftime. (maybe common sense but it's nice to see the actual data).
It is interesting that the region between -10 and +15 is fairly linear, which seems to show that for every point in halftime margin, the % chance of winning the game will rise or fall ~4%.
It's also interesting that this (-15 to +10) region is shifted to the right in UK's favor. For example even if UK is at -5 down at halftime, they still have about a 50% chance of winning the game. (as opposed to the opposition who if UK is 5 up on them, they only have about a 30% chance of winning the game etc.) [Although looking at the relatively large number of Calipari winning games when behind at halftime (seen in light blue), I think is a positive sign that he may end up doing better than UK's historic average (shown in dark blue).]
Additional information concerning how often games end up at the different margin levels can be seen in the chart below:
It looks like a pretty normal bell curve. It's noteworthy that the average is ~ +5, which is reflective of UK's historical dominance. Calipari hasn't really coached enough games to really see a good distribution of his games.
Any comments?
The second chart, if you normalized the number of games played, then I think it would show that Cal's record has a bell curve similar to the overall.
One last question: is the Calipari data just for his time at UK or Cal's overall coaching career?
Thanks,
UK93
The stat that I like, and find amazing is, how many other coaches have been in almost 250 games, and only had 11 that they were behind double digits, at halftime?
I agree. It is a pretty meaningless stat. I remember the 2012 MSU game though..hell of a comeback in that environment.
I am curious of the 13 games how many UK rallied to lose a very close one and how many they got beat by 10+. I can think of the OSU game this year as one they were down 12 and rallied, but ended up losing by 7 due to some terrible mistakes by our upperclassmen.
you are reading that correctly. Most likely there were only 1 or 2 games, and coach cal ended up winning it. Keep in mind that Coach Cal only has limited amount of games, and even more limited is when he's behind.
Actually, Coach Cal's bell curve is different than the blue curve. It shows that it's bell curve is much better than UK's norm. Which is also why his win % at UK has been the best ever.
That was the infamous game vs. Central University (Centre) in 1910. UK ended up losing by 70 points, still a record to this day.
Link to UK-Central Boxscore
During that era the stars at Central were the Seelbach brothers, Louis and Will, along with big man Fred Hess. The Seelbachs were the sons of the founder of the Seelbach Hotel in Louisville.
Yes, Calipari's data shows that he has a 100% win% at a number of places, including many cases where UK has been down at halftime. This is a downside of not having a lot of data points for him. (and yes to your third question this is only Cal's UK data).
Probably make more sense to have a cumulative percentage. When I have some time I'll see if I can do that.
But in the meantime, this is what it looks like showing Cal's data only.
To the second question, I still think there's not enough data to get a respectable-looking distribution. But I'm not a statistician so maybe I'm wrong about that.
First of all I'm not sure who you're responding to, so it's hard to put it into context.
Secondly, judging by your comment and a few others who find this statistic 'worthless' etc., it seems to me that you're completely misinterpreting the point, and not understanding the reason why it came up in the first place.
The stat was not meant to criticize or take a shot at Cal at all. If anything it illustrates just how few times his teams are down big in games.
What the stat does do, however, is give a pretty good indication of UK's chances in a scenario where UK finds themselves down by 10 at halftime in a game that Cal is coaching.
Normally I would agree that this would be a pretty obscure and arcane statistic that isn't very useful or insightful, except for the fact that this was the VERY situation that UK fans found themselves in on Tuesday night around 10 p.m. EST, and thus it was directly applicable to the situation at hand.
This seems to be a good rule of thumb for your mindset when watching a game: If UK is down by 10 or more at the half, don't expect to win.
Seems reasonable, and the data bears it out. I'll bet the shape of the curve looks similar for most teams.
Seems reasonable, and the data bears it out. I'll bet the shape of the curve looks similar for most teams.
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