CBS Sports - Starting Lineup Prediction

[megablue]

Seems like the emphasis is on DEFENSE to start games ... Garrison over Williams surprised me a little bit.

Kentucky basketball roster 2024-25: Starting lineup prediction, rotation, outlook for Mark Pope's Wildcats

The Wildcats are welcoming an abundance of new players as the Mark Pope era begins in Lexington

www.cbssports.com

For reference, here are selected stats from last season, ranked by minutes played per game:

	HT	WT	MINS	PTS	REBS	3PTA	FG%	2P%	3PT%	FT%	STL	BLK	AST	TOV
KRIISA	6'3"	185	33.4	11.0	2.5	6.3	0.429	0.444	0.424	0.775	0.8	0.0	4.7	2.9
CARR	6'10"	220	32.5	13.5	6.8	2.8	0.526	0.595	0.371	0.781	0.5	1.5	1.5	1.2
ALMONOR	6'7"	219	32.0	16.4	5.1	7.4	0.436	0.494	0.394	0.800	0.5	0.7	1.7	1.6
BREA	6'6"	205	29.1	11.1	3.8	6.1	0.512	0.578	0.498	0.875	0.5	0.3	1.2	0.7
BUTLER	6'2"	205	27.5	9.3	2.6	2.9	0.421	0.485	0.302	0.594	1.5	0.2	3.0	1.5
ROBINSON	6'7"	190	26.4	14.2	2.5	6.9	0.426	0.532	0.354	0.908	0.7	0.4	1.3	1.5
OWEH	6'5"	215	24.9	11.4	3.8	1.7	0.493	0.520	0.377	0.643	1.5	0.4	1.0	1.8
WILLIAMS	6'10"	265	22.9	12.2	7.8	0.1	0.517	0.519	0.333	0.655	0.8	1.8	1.9	2.4
GARRISON	6'11"	245	22.7	7.5	5.3	0.0	0.572	0.572	0.000	0.648	0.8	1.5	1.5	1.7
NOAH	6'6"	200
PERRY	6'2"	170
CHANDLER	6'4"	170
TOTALS			251.4	106.6	40.2	34.2

CAREER 3PT PERCENTAGES
DNP = DID NOT PLAY
					Career	Career
	20-21	21-22	22-23	23-24	Overall	Conference
BREA	0.355	0.423	0.370	0.498	0.434	0.461
ALMONOR	DNP	0.343	0.381	0.394	0.385	0.403
KRIISA	0.368	0.336	0.366	0.424	0.368	0.376
OWEH	DNP	DNP	0.250	0.377	0.368	0.211
CARR	0.286	0.405	0.311	0.371	0.344	0.350
ROBINSON	0.286	0.326	0.343	0.354	0.343	0.317
BUTLER	0.290	0.329	0.342	0.302	0.321	0.294
WILLIAMS	0.00	0.500	0.267	0.333	0.308	0.333
GARRISON	DNP	DNP	DNP	0.000	0.000	0.000
NOAH
PERRY
CHANDLER

Last year comparisons, ranked by 3PT attempts ... Almonor, Robinson and Brea shot more threes per minute than Dilly ... and Kriisa shot more 3PM than Reeves ... so, we have four (4) newcomers that are high-volume three-point shooters.
Carr and Oweh have good three-point percentages, but were far less frequent in attempts:

	MINS	ATT	ATT/MIN	3PT%		MINS	MINS	ATT	ATT/MIN	3PT%
REEVES	1035​	188​	0.1816​	44.7%​		ALMONOR	1025​	236​	0.2302​	39.4%​
SHEPPARD	953​	144​	0.1511​	52.1%​		ROBINSON	871​	229​	0.2629​	35.4%​
DILLINGHAM	745​	144​	0.1933​	44.4%​		BREA	960​	201​	0.2094​	49.8%​
WAGNER	748​	96​	0.1283​	29.2%​		KRIISA	769​	144​	0.1873​	42.4%​
EDWARDS	686​	85​	0.1239​	36.5%​		BUTLER	1020​	106​	0.1039​	30.2%​
MITCHELL	817​	82​	0.1004​	30.5%​		CARR	1140​	97​	0.0851​	37.1%​
THIERO	535​	22​	0.0411​	31.8%​		OWEH	797​	53​	0.0665​	37.7%​
IVISIC	176​	16​	0.0909​	37.5%​		WILLIAMS	820​	3​	0.0037​	33.3%​
BRADSHAW	358​	14​	0.0391​	28.6%​		GARRISON	721​	0​	0.0000​	0.0%​
BURKS	140​	5​	0.0357​	40.0%​		CHANDLER				0.0%​
HART	10​	1​	0.1000​	100.0%​		PERRY				0.0%​
ONYENSO	448​	1​	0.0022​	0.0%​		NOAH				0.0%​

 

[zoid1]

Ya I read this when it came out. Butler and Carr probably got the PG and PF locked up as starters. I'd say Amari will get the start at C mainly due to his passing, experience and defense. SG and SF are our deepest positions as we have a plethora of players who can play them. IMO Oweh and Robinson will start. Butler, Oweh, Robinson, Carr and Williams gives us a great offensive and defensive balance to start the game.

 

[Aike]

Very interested to see what the rotations look like. Would note that Kerr has started nearly every game in his career, including on some very good Arizona teams.

I almost think it will be Butler/Kerr/Oweh/Carr/Williams.

Robinson was an effective 6th man last year, and maybe prefers that role.

If you sub for Butler you can slide Kerr over to the point. Could also come in with Perry at the point if you have early foul trouble for both Butler and Kerr.

Or you start Kerr, sub in Brea/Chandler for him, then bring Kerr back in for Butler.

Personally, I like the idea of that 1/3/5 of Butler/Oweh/Williams defensively, with more firepower at the 2/4.

All kind of moot until we see what the guys look like on the floor and playing together, but I’m excited about the possibilities.

 

[CatFanInIlliniLand]

On paper, this team looks deep!

 

[chroix]

On paper, this team looks deep!

Deep and we’ve got multiple looks/options.

 

[jeffky]

If Perry keeps shooting the percentages being reported no way in hell can you keep him out of the line up this kid can flat out shoot

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

Very interested to see what the rotations look like. Would note that Kerr has started nearly every game in his career, including on some very good Arizona teams.

I almost think it will be Butler/Kerr/Oweh/Carr/Williams.

Robinson was an effective 6th man last year, and maybe prefers that role.

If you sub for Butler you can slide Kerr over to the point. Could also come in with Perry at the point if you have early foul trouble for both Butler and Kerr.

Or you start Kerr, sub in Brea/Chandler for him, then bring Kerr back in for Butler.

Personally, I like the idea of that 1/3/5 of Butler/Oweh/Williams defensively, with more firepower at the 2/4.

All kind of moot until we see what the guys look like on the floor and playing together, but I’m excited about the possibilities.

On paper, this team looks deep!

Deep and we’ve got multiple looks/options.

High-level competence at every position. It's a team filled with Scott Padgetts, Jeff Brassows, Darius Millers, and Doron Lambs.

I'm actually more than comfortable with that. Depending on incoming guys like Boston and Edwards kind of lost its luster for me over the last four years.

 

[chroix]

High-level competence at every position. It's a team filled with Scott Padgetts, Jeff Brassows, Darius Millers, and Doron Lambs.

I'm actually more than comfortable with that. Depending on incoming guys like Boston and Edwards kind of lost its luster for me over the last four years.

Loving it on paper. Ready to see what it looks like irl.

 

[Aike]

High-level competence at every position. It's a team filled with Scott Padgetts, Jeff Brassows, Darius Millers, and Doron Lambs.

I'm actually more than comfortable with that. Depending on incoming guys like Boston and Edwards kind of lost its luster for me over the last four years.

Agree completely. Perfect storm would be something like 1998. Something in the ballpark of 2003-2005 wouldn’t surprise me.

Keys will be how quickly we gel, and whether or not anyone makes any leaps. Chandler could be better than expected. Oweh could hit another gear. One of the Kentucky kids could contribute more than most think.

I realize it’s fashionable to downplay everything, but I have no intention of doing that. I’ve lived through 5 coaching changes in my life, and 4 of those 5 teams exceeded expectations.

1986 went from borderline tourney team to the edge of the FF.

1990 we were gutted and salvaged a .500 season. Even beat Chris Jackson and Shaq.

1998 turned out ok.

BCG was the lone bump in the road.

Cal had us near the top of the polls all season.

I think too many people underestimate the energy around this program and the burst we will get from the new blood. The Rupp crowds will hit another gear. The players and staff will be incredibly driven.

This isn’t Starkville.

 

[docholiday51]

Very interested to see what the rotations look like. Would note that Kerr has started nearly every game in his career, including on some very good Arizona teams.

I almost think it will be Butler/Kerr/Oweh/Carr/Williams.

Robinson was an effective 6th man last year, and maybe prefers that role.

If you sub for Butler you can slide Kerr over to the point. Could also come in with Perry at the point if you have early foul trouble for both Butler and Kerr.

Or you start Kerr, sub in Brea/Chandler for him, then bring Kerr back in for Butler.

Personally, I like the idea of that 1/3/5 of Butler/Oweh/Williams defensively, with more firepower at the 2/4.

All kind of moot until we see what the guys look like on the floor and playing together, but I’m excited about the possibilities.

I will be shocked, shocked I say, if Robinson and Williams don't start😁 Seriously I think Garrison has been undervalued and a bit lost in the shuffle by the board. No clue what we have but it will be interesting to say the least.

 

[docholiday51]

Agree completely. Perfect storm would be something like 1998. Something in the ballpark of 2003-2005 wouldn’t surprise me.

Keys will be how quickly we gel, and whether or not anyone makes any leaps. Chandler could be better than expected. Oweh could hit another gear. One of the Kentucky kids could contribute more than most think.

I realize it’s fashionable to downplay everything, but I have no intention of doing that. I’ve lived through 5 coaching changes in my life, and 4 of those 5 teams exceeded expectations.

1986 went from borderline tourney team to the edge of the FF.

1990 we were gutted and salvaged a .500 season. Even beat Chris Jackson and Shaq.

1998 turned out ok.

BCG was the lone bump in the road.

Cal had us near the top of the polls all season.

I think too many people underestimate the energy around this program and the burst we will get from the new blood. The Rupp crowds will hit another gear. The players and staff will be incredibly driven.

This isn’t Starkville.

BCG was a whole load of.............coal.

 

[WildcatNC]

Mystery really.

I kinda feel like since Pope is more of an Xs and Os strategist, lineups will be based on creating matchup problems for opponents and style of play advantages rather than certain guys all of the time.

 

[52T]

If Perry keeps shooting the percentages being reported no way in hell can you keep him out of the line up this kid can flat out shoot

And he's used to being the man. Shepherd says he's the better shooter. No hesitation. Can he play defense??

 

[bucsrule8872]

I expect Brea to be a reserve. He’s a shooter. That’s all he is really known for, so I suspect he comes in all guns blazing off the bench.

I really think the starting lineup will fluctuate as Pope tries different combos.

I think by SEC play he settles in with:

Butler
Oweh
Robinson
Carr
Williams

That’s probably the best lineup on both ends of the floor. All those guys can defend really well.

Kriisa and Brea are instant offense off the bench.

Garrison should split pretty equally with Williams. I think the fifth year Senior gets the starting nod.

Almonor backs up Carr.

That’s a pretty good 9-man rotation on paper.

 

[BBNinSC]

I will be shocked, shocked I say, if Robinson and Williams don't start😁 Seriously I think Garrison has been undervalued and a bit lost in the shuffle by the board. No clue what we have but it will be interesting to say the least.

Garrison is going to be special. He’s the best NBA prospect on this roster. He could be one of the strongest inside players in the SEC

 

[megablue]

Garrison is going to be special. He’s the best NBA prospect on this roster. He could be one of the strongest inside players in the SEC

How is Garrison looking in practices ??
Are there any creditable reports ??

 

[bucsrule8872]

Very interested to see what the rotations look like. Would note that Kerr has started nearly every game in his career, including on some very good Arizona teams.

I almost think it will be Butler/Kerr/Oweh/Carr/Williams.

Robinson was an effective 6th man last year, and maybe prefers that role.

If you sub for Butler you can slide Kerr over to the point. Could also come in with Perry at the point if you have early foul trouble for both Butler and Kerr.

Or you start Kerr, sub in Brea/Chandler for him, then bring Kerr back in for Butler.

Personally, I like the idea of that 1/3/5 of Butler/Oweh/Williams defensively, with more firepower at the 2/4.

All kind of moot until we see what the guys look like on the floor and playing together, but I’m excited about the possibilities.

I like the idea of starting both PGs together. They are both so different and both can play with or without the ball.

Could be a good combo with Butler’s defensive intensity and Kriisa’s shooting and passing skills. Butler would be the primary ball handler since Kriisa seems to be a little more turnover prone.

That’s probably the best option, if Robinson keeps the sixth man role.

Robinson and Brea are both use to coming off the bench, while Kriisa and Oweh are use to starting.

I really think the biggest question mark is really who starts at the 2 and 3. Butler is the 1, Carr is the 4, and who starts at the 5 is somewhat irrelevant, since Williams and Garrison should split minutes fairly evenly. Lots of options at the 2 and 3, though.

It’s going to be interesting to see how the rotation plays out.

 

[BBNinSC]

How is Garrison looking in practices ??
Are there any creditable reports ??

I’d say it’s just an unfounded assumption, but I like my chances of being correct about it.

 

[ukfan1622]

I will be shocked, shocked I say, if Robinson and Williams don't start😁 Seriously I think Garrison has been undervalued and a bit lost in the shuffle by the board. No clue what we have but it will be interesting to say the least.

I wouldn't be as shocked with Robinson coming off the bench since he did it last year(still don't expect it) but I'd really be shocked if Garrison started instead of Williams. I think the writer just saw that one was coming from the Big 12 and the other from Drexel and just assumed the guy from the bigger school was better.

 

[Aike]

I like the idea of starting both PGs together. They are both so different and both can play with or without the ball.

Could be a good combo with Butler’s defensive intensity and Kriisa’s shooting and passing skills. Butler would be the primary ball handler since Kriisa seems to be a little more turnover prone.

That’s probably the best option, if Robinson keeps the sixth man role.

Robinson and Brea are both use to coming off the bench, while Kriisa and Oweh are use to starting.

I really think the biggest question mark is really who starts at the 2 and 3. Butler is the 1, Carr is the 4, and who starts at the 5 is somewhat irrelevant, since Williams and Garrison should split minutes fairly evenly. Lots of options at the 2 and 3, though.

It’s going to be interesting to see how the rotation plays out.

I think some of this depends on Perry. If he shows himself capable of giving 10-15 quality minutes off the bench, then it becomes much easier to start 2 pgs.

 

[megablue]

I’d say it’s just an unfounded assumption, but I like my chances of being correct about it.

Gotcha ... I just wondered if you'd read or heard encouraging reports. At this point, it's hard to really know how any of them are doing in head-to-head competition ...

 

[HerrosHeroes]

Come post season it will be

Butler
Perry
Noah
Carr
Williams

 

[YardCat]

I just hope we have a healthy team going into postseason, it’s time for UK to finally win a game and at least make it to the second weekend.

 

[true blue1]

I’m going with;

Pg. Butler
Sg. Chandler
Sf. Robinson
Pf. Carr
C. It’s a toss up between Garrison and Williams.

 

[BlueSince92]

If being sixth man of the year in the Big 12 didn’t give Robinson the stock he wanted, what is being sixth man of the year in the slightly weaker SEC going to do for him? Imo it doesn’t make sense for Robinson not to start in terms of Robinson’s goals. And I think it makes even less sense for him not to start in terms of the team’s goals and needs.

 

[bucsrule8872]

I think some of this depends on Perry. If he shows himself capable of giving 10-15 quality minutes off the bench, then it becomes much easier to start 2 pgs.

I think it works with a 9-man rotation. I don’t see the Freshmen playing much once SEC play starts.

I could see something like this being the rotation once we get into 2025:

PG Butler(28)/Kriisa(12)
SG Kriisa(12)/Brea(18)/Oweh(10)
SF Oweh(12)/1Robinson(28)
PF Carr(27)/Almonor(13)
C Williams(20)/Garrison(20)

Kriisa has started pretty much every game wherever he has played, so the idea of him starting as a fifth year Senior is not far fetched. He’s a career P5 starter.

Oweh started about every game last season and played in the Big 12. He’s a proven major conference starter.

Williams vs. Garrison is a toss up. They will both play a lot. Williams is a fifth year Senior, so I think he’ll start over the Sophomore, but it’s possible Pope will flip them around.

Carr is the clear cut starter at the 4. Almonor is a good reserve, but there’s really no question who the starter will be, IMHO.

Butler is the starter at PG, Kriisa already said that was the case. He’s a proven Final Four/Runner-Up.

I like the makeup of this squad on paper.

 

[bucsrule8872]

If being sixth man of the year in the Big 12 didn’t give Robinson the stock he wanted, what is being sixth man of the year in the slightly weaker SEC going to do for him? Imo it doesn’t make sense for Robinson not to start in terms of Robinson’s goals. And I think it makes even less sense for him not to start in terms of the team’s goals and needs.

Sometimes it’s about chemistry and comfort. Robinson might prefer to come off the bench. Why else would a team’s leading scorer and best player come off the bench?

It obviously doesn’t matter to the NBA whether you start or not, just look at Sheppard and Dillingham.

Most guys want to start, but some would rather come off the bench. To each their own.

I personally like the idea of starting your best players at each position, but Pope and many other coaches have different philosophies.

I’m sure Pope will use the rotation that works best and results in wins.

 

[Cleatortoises]

If anybody thinks Rob wouldn't have preferred to start, they are mistaken.
Seriously.
I would have preferred it too.

 

[zoid1]

So if we start Butler, Krissa, Oweh, Carr and Williams our bench is gonna be insane. Robinson, Brea, Almoror and Garrison I'm sure Perry, Chandler and Noah are gonna get some run with the teams we're supposed to beat. I still think when the dust settles and it's a must win game the best lineup for almost any situation is gonna be Butler, Oweh, Robinson, Carr and Williams but I'm sure Pope will play the other 4 upperclassmen a ton and put the frosh in so they can be effective against in certain situations and matchups.

 

[Aike]

I think it works with a 9-man rotation. I don’t see the Freshmen playing much once SEC play starts.

I could see something like this being the rotation once we get into 2025:

PG Butler(28)/Kriisa(12)
SG Kriisa(12)/Brea(18)/Oweh(10)
SF Oweh(12)/1Robinson(28)
PF Carr(27)/Almonor(13)
C Williams(20)/Garrison(20)

Kriisa has started pretty much every game wherever he has played, so the idea of him starting as a fifth year Senior is not far fetched. He’s a career P5 starter.

Oweh started about every game last season and played in the Big 12. He’s a proven major conference starter.

Williams vs. Garrison is a toss up. They will both play a lot. Williams is a fifth year Senior, so I think he’ll start over the Sophomore, but it’s possible Pope will flip them around.

Carr is the clear cut starter at the 4. Almonor is a good reserve, but there’s really no question who the starter will be, IMHO.

Butler is the starter at PG, Kriisa already said that was the case. He’s a proven Final Four/Runner-Up.

I like the makeup of this squad on paper.

The 9 man rotation works. I tend to think it will be hard to keep the freshmen off the floor completely.

There may be surprises with one or more of the 9 penciled in not quite being ready for primetime. Could have injuries. Could have situations where we go small and push Oweh to the 4, Carr to the 5.

The thing with having Perry ready to go if you go with Butler/Kerr as starters is that we all know SEC refs can be brutal. Fly to Nashville or Columbia on a random school night and those 2 point guards will each have 2 fouls before they get off the plane.

Like I probably said before, I’m excited to see how it all works out. If those 9 guys are good enough to command a bulk of the minutes and hold off the freshmen, that would be a good problem to have.

 

[WallMashKyBall]

I have an un-informed notion that Kerr is a defensive liability. Dude ain't big and he got short arms. If you play him at the 2G we will be giving up huge height, athleticism disadvantage on D

 

[bigblue1971]

Robinson and Brea are starting. Along with Butler Carr and Williams.

 

[BlueSince92]

Sometimes it’s about chemistry and comfort. Robinson might prefer to come off the bench. Why else would a team’s leading scorer and best player come off the bench?

It obviously doesn’t matter to the NBA whether you start or not, just look at Sheppard and Dillingham.

Most guys want to start, but some would rather come off the bench. To each their own.

I personally like the idea of starting your best players at each position, but Pope and many other coaches have different philosophies.

I’m sure Pope will use the rotation that works best and results in wins.

Guys have not started and been drafted high. But Robinson got bad projections after not starting, even after being conference sixth man of the year which in general the guys you’re referencing didn’t even get. So obviously their trajectories don’t apply to his situation.

Pope understands the assignment. What he needs from this team is something he has set himself up to be able to provide, but not if he brings Jaxson Robinson off the bench. When we got Robinson none of our other players, despite their towering efficiency numbers in certain senses, had played the role of their team’s high scorer and therefore proven they could produce those numbers while being the focus of opposing defenses. Robinson has been and that was his biggest value to this team when he was landed. But if that’s a value he’s going to bring to this team the way the team needs it he’s going to have to do it by giving us starter momentum and playing starter minutes, raising the value of the rest of the players in the most natural and advantageous way.

Binging him off the bench worked. But it didn’t work well enough to win an NCAAT game. The possibilities are greater at UK and the assignment is much loftier. If Robinson was some kind of Royce White with a phobia about touching the hardwood before two minutes had come off the clock, Pope is smart enough to have looked elsewhere because he understands the assignment. We need something else from Robinson here, at this level, with this team, and with these goals. And it’s hilarious to me that some people can’t see that, including some very popular talking heads. Sixth man Jax: Not gonna happen.

 

[megablue]

Robinson and Brea are starting. Along with Butler Carr and Williams.

My guess is that if Robinson and Brea are anywhere near as effective on offense as most think they will be and do not start, there will be the same type of complaints that we heard about Sheppard and Dillingham not starting. For that matter, if Kiirsa is equally effective on offense, complaints on the decision to start Butler might proliferate, as well. I'm sure Pope is fully-aware of those complaints from last season, but he is also fully-aware of the defensive shortcomings we had, too. His balancing and adjusting the levers of offensive/defensive personnel throughout games will be his biggest challenge, in my opinion, but he is very fortunate that it appears he has strong defensive talent to utilize. All will make for an interesting season for everyone to watch unfold. GO CATS !!

 

[rob_47]

If being sixth man of the year in the Big 12 didn’t give Robinson the stock he wanted, what is being sixth man of the year in the slightly weaker SEC going to do for him? Imo it doesn’t make sense for Robinson not to start in terms of Robinson’s goals. And I think it makes even less sense for him not to start in terms of the team’s goals and needs.

Yeah Robinson is for sure starting I can't see how he would be at all happy coming off the bench. I know people like to point to the comments he made last year about coming off the bench but come on folks good team players will always say things like that to the media. Robinson is 100 percent going to be a starter.

 

[bucsrule8872]

Unless Robinson would rather come off the bench he will start. That’s clear.

If he prefers to come off the bench, then I have no problem with that. Some guys prefer to do that and that role for him last year had nothing to do with his draft status, IMHO.

I expect him to start unless he is adamant about coming off the bench. I don’t know if he will feel that way or not. I really expect him to want to start.

Brea is a different story. He’s a great shooter, but nothing else he does really jumps off the stat sheet. Robinson, Kriisa, and Oweh all have better all-around games. I see Brea being an assassin off the bench. Coming in firing shots up for a few minutes a game to stretch the defense.

Still think the best all-around lineup will be:

PG Butler
SG Oweh
SF Robinson
PF Carr
C Williams

But starting Kriisa and Butler together might be the better option offensively. Kriisa can handle, pass, and shoot really well. Butler is a defensive star and a great leader. I would have no problem replacing Oweh with Kriisa at the 2, though I would maybe put Butler guarding the 2, if our opponent has a dynamic player at that spot. Kriisa is likely going to be a defensive liability most of the time.

 

[ukfan1622]

Robinson and Brea are starting. Along with Butler Carr and Williams.

I agree with that being the most likely starting lineup.

 

[ThrowBackCat9]

Come post season it will be

Butler
Perry
Noah
Carr
Williams

I don’t care what you say, you do not truthfully believe that statement.