Bam is one of those rare prospects who stand to gain 10 spots or so by returning for a second year. The draft is obviously weaker next year, and Bam could make a realistic jump into the lottery by returning. I think it’s clear that even if he ends up in the early 2nd round this summer, he’ll end up with a multi-year contract; however, if Bam ended up at #14 in the ’18 draft, he’d bring in a guaranteed $2.5 million, with a third year option at an additional $1.9 million for a total of around $4.4 million. If he goes now, and ends up at #27 (for example) that’s two years guaranteed at $2 million with a third year option at $1.1 million for a total of $3.1 million.
Being that Bam is probably going to stick long-term in the league, I’m not sure the extra year is worth it unless he sees himself as a top 10 pick next year – in which the three year earnings go from about $4.4 million to over $7 million. Obviously, it would be worth a second year in that scenario, but a top 10 pick is no guarantee for Bam, even after a second season at UK.