We're talking about Jaylen Brown and connecting his winning probabilities to other real freshmen who didn't do shite once the tournament came around.
You changed the narrative to "making it to the NBA", which no one said couldn't happen elsewhere. In fact, it's fairly obvious that it can happen virtually anywhere; however, what we're discussing is the success of other programs when it comes to actually winning with freshmen. If you can offer an extensive list of these guys who went to a Final Four since the Cal Era began (not counting Calipari's guys), go for it.
I'll offer a list of notable OADs during the Calipari Era who didn't advance to the Final Four.
Shabazz Muhammed - lost in the first round
Andrew Wiggins - lost in the second round (overall #1 pick in 2014)
Jabari Parker - lost in the first round
Anthony Bennett - lost in the first round (overall #1 pick in 2013)
Kyrie Irving - lost in the Sweet Sixteen (overall #1 pick in 2011)
Austin Rivers - lost in the first round
Andre Drummond - lost in the first round
Josh Selby - lost in the Sweet Sixteen
Kelly Oubre - lost in second round
De'Angelo Russell - lost in second round
Stanley Johnson - lost in Elite Eight
Aaron Gordon - lost in Elite Eight
Avery Bradley - lost in first round
Myles Turner - lost in first round
Kevon Looney - lost in Sweet Sixteen
Rashad Vaughn - didn't qualify for NCAA Tournament
Tyler Ennis - lost in second round
Noah Vonleh - didn't qualify for NCAA Tournament
Bradley Beal - lost in Elite Eight
Quincy Miller - lost in Elite Eight
Steven Adams - lost in first round
In fact, up until the 2015 Duke team, virtually every single OAD who attended another school during the Calipari Era failed to make a Final Four. You can ignore that point. I assure you Calipari won't.
Now, here's his list of OAD players who have made it to a Final Four with Calipari:
Karl Towns
Trey Lyles
Devon Booker
Julius Randle
James Young
Michael Kidd Gilchrist
Marquis Teague
Anthony Davis
Brandon Knight
Derrick Rose
You can say this is merely coincidental. You'd be wrong, however.