No no, it’s fine. I shouldnt have mentioned actual figures. Just trying to point out what a ridiculous time this is to build a house.
Building a house
- Thread starter Ron Mehico
- Start date
As far as building right now - it would be difficult for me to justify the current prices if I didn’t get fortunate and lock in a great rate for our build/mortgage. Unfortunately it’s not easier to buy with bidding wars - having to buy as is, etc. Just a hard time all around, I wouldnt build/buy unless I had to honestly.
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I wish I did all this a year ago.. But I bought my duplex in 2019, and I wasn't even really aware that building was an option for us, until we saw how our friends did it, but by the time we started meeting with builders, it was too late.. rates were up to 5% (or higher) and prices were still maxed.
We keep going through the pros and cons: Build, Buy, and wait.. and none of them stand out. There really doesn't seem to be a BAD choice, it's just a question of what's most important, and what you can stomach.
The absolute LAST thing I want to do is move into a starter home.. some 1200sq/ft, 3 bedroom/1.5 bath type house that I know we will just outgrow in 5-8 years, if not sooner. That's why i opted for the Duplex when I did, to let my tenant cover my "starter home" costs, and therefore, giving me that chance to get our forever home sooner than we thought.
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Ya I think if you can afford it and need to move it’s not a bad time as I think prices will still be increasing for at least another year, but if you have to overstretch for it obviously not. The fact this is our “forever” home and I don’t have to deal with this again hopefully ever makes it easier to swallow. The fact that our current house also keeps dramatically increasing in value has been offsetting the additional build costs as well so we’re very fortunate.
They poured the walls and completed the foundation for us on Friday. They cleared our lot in March, so It took much longer than expected. Process is moving very slow for us as well. Our builders framer is 4-5 weeks out so we will wait another month until we can start that process.
If you don't mind me asking, how is your lumber price going up so much with prices dropping over the last month? Was your last quote for that received several months back?
It was last July. Funny enough if you look at the lumber futures they are almost identical in number (in the 800s) but apparently the issue for our house is the floor joists whatever the hell those are.
No he shouldn’t have either. Their squeaky AF and they are more expensive. The issue he faces is the floor system should have been ordered months ago to make sure they got them.
ijoists are now on allocation and will be a bitch to find that many. This dude isn’t building a rectangle or a box by any stretch.
ijoists are now on allocation and will be a bitch to find that many. This dude isn’t building a rectangle or a box by any stretch.
Our main builder we were looking at told us in March, to "expect the base model to climb in price at least once a month", due to supply chains, labor, etc.. probably half true, and half trying to get the sale.
Home sellers are each their own business and have their own needs.. so I see why those prices can fall. But with Builders, who knows, they could just sit on the prices they have for a bit longer I imagine? But at the same time, if house prices were to drop, say 5%.. builders might need to scale back also. A Builder can't offer a house for $700,000 if the same pre-existing house just dropped down to $550,000.
I've built dozens of houses with floor trusses and have no problems with squeaks, must be an 84 Lumber truss shop issue. They also save money on running your mechanicals, especially since the plumbers don't cut them up causing engineer letter requirements.
My own 11 year old house that I built has them and I got much greater load ratings on my floor than I could have with ijoists, no squeaks either. They freespan much greater distances which reduces lvl or steel needs and the open webbing prevents needing mechanical chases.
I guess another benefit to them is you don't have to wait on manufacturing allocations. You really got our boy Mr Mehico in a bind by not ordering them for him on time.
I am no econball (nor do I have any informed opinion in the Great Truss Vs. Joist Debate of 2022) but I think we are seeing the tail end of the blistering hot market. House prices are still increasing but the rate of the increases has slowed every year since 2020.
I don't think there will be a bubble that bursts because lending standards didn't go insane like they did in the mid-Aughts.
If I were even considering selling my house, I'd get it on the market asap because I think this summer is going to continue with the craziness but by this time next year, I think we will be back to a more normal time for both house sales and material costs, albeit with costs that will continue to be much higher than pre-2020.
He is building in Ohio, I’m not his builders salesman either.
Yes trusses “can” make mechanicals easier but they are still expensive.
Also, Mr Mehico has been explained to that lumber is plummeting and is waiting at least a few weeks.
Yes trusses “can” make mechanicals easier but they are still expensive.
Also, Mr Mehico has been explained to that lumber is plummeting and is waiting at least a few weeks.
dead @ the Truss vs Joist debate comment lmfao.
What I can't seem to get past is just how QUICKLY prices rose. We talk about this time around not being the same because lenders/mortgages are finally in check, which I agree with.. but it still took nearly 16 years to grow home prices by ~$150,000 (91 to 07), at a slow but fairly steady incline. Compared to now, where it only took 2 years to grow that same amount in home prices. Something just doesn't seem sustainable with that. Now maybe home prices never go down, but something then fundamentally has to change, to account for that sharp spike over 2 years. Are we heading towards 40 year loans? Percentage of rent increases as investment companies and the elite own property?
Idk.. just seems like something has to give.
Just scrolled back though this thread to see my post from June 28th 2021 that we were "almost" done building. Didn't move in until October 26th 2021. Ended up taking 14 months from first dirt being moved to move in.
Good luck, Ron. Building sucks.
I can hook you up with a good truss guy that will keep your cost difference negligible to ijoists. They don't go on allocation either.
Just let me know.
And today, finally, framing begins. Our overage went from 51k to 10k so that was nice. Of course I ordered lumber 3 weeks ago but it was delayed being delivered and started but after screaming at everyone I finally got it to happen this week. We got a wonderful message from our flooring people yesterday that the tiles we ordered throughout the house in several 5 hour meetings have either been discontinued or gone up multiple levels for the majority of them, so we’ll have to “go back to the drawing board” 😂. Well then why the f*ck did we pick them out so soon?? Not to mention half of our fixtures were picked around it.
I plan on using this thread as my own personal journal that I can look back on when this house is finished in 5 years to reminisce of what a catastrophe it is to build right now 😂. What a GD nightmare. The only saving grace is that I got my mortgage and construction loan all wrapped up and locked into one last year so I’m not stressing about interest rates. I calculated it with current average interest rates with what I got and my mortgage and payments would literally be double at the current rates.
I plan on using this thread as my own personal journal that I can look back on when this house is finished in 5 years to reminisce of what a catastrophe it is to build right now 😂. What a GD nightmare. The only saving grace is that I got my mortgage and construction loan all wrapped up and locked into one last year so I’m not stressing about interest rates. I calculated it with current average interest rates with what I got and my mortgage and payments would literally be double at the current rates.
Good luck Ron, I know exactly what your are going through. Double that if you are in Florida. We have so many transplants pouring in it is becoming impossible to build house.
I am going through a nightmare just to have repairs and remodeling done at my existing house. We made arrangements to have two bathrooms remodeled before last Thanksgiving. We are midway through July and they still can not give me a start date to begin.
I have an area to put down sod and can not get a delivery date for that. All sod is going to new construction.
My irrigation system needs new lines and they went bad last June. Over a year later and I still can not get the work done. All new irrigation and wells are going to new construction and they are backed up a year.
I followed up with my contractor on the remodel Monday and was told the tile for bathrooms was somewhere on a boat between here and Turkey. So who knows when or if it will ever get here. I was told most of their problems were due to the current political situation, the last thing I wanted to hear. They can't get material or workers and they are the largest contractor in the county. I have used them twice before to do some remodeling and they started 3 or 4 days after we signed the contract. Now it may be a year.
Based on this post of yours responding to mine from June 2021, you sure as hell ain't no Nostradamus.
I, on the other hand...
Based on this post of yours responding to mine from June 2021, you sure as hell ain't no Nostradamus.
I, on the other hand...
You know it’s interesting. We have this pocket of people that built/bought in a random 2 year span of insanely low interest rates that’ll probably be hanging on to those homes for 30 years, with minimal incentive to pay off the mortgage early and will be more likely to invest. You’re now going to have people that waited for a “crash” that never really materialized that will be dealing with high interest rates that will be signing lots of ARMs and aggressively trying to pay off mortgage. Pretty weird dynamic and I wonder how long interest rates will be high. After the 70s inflation bubble they were high for over a decade. My parent bought their home in 1993 with 11% interest which is mind blowing. Right now the rising interest rates have far offset any loss of home value (which is actually still going up).
Been following this thread when I see it pop up.
Wife and I are building a custom home. They finished framing the main level this week and are laying floor joist for the 2nd floor now. Would guess joist and subfloor will be installed by weeks end.
Wife and I are building a custom home. They finished framing the main level this week and are laying floor joist for the 2nd floor now. Would guess joist and subfloor will be installed by weeks end.
Sounds like we’re in a similar spot! When did you start? They started pouring foundation for us in March so it’s been a slow grind
You are what?Based on this post of yours responding to mine from June 2021, you sure as hell ain't no Nostradamus.
I, on the other hand...
Interest rates are up, concrete is up, plumbing is up, electric is up, HVAC is up, labor is up, and I haven’t had a house in 8 months that wasn’t over budget due to increases that WON’T come down like lumber has.
So what is it that you are?
I am RIGHT because we ARE going into a recession. Our economy shrank in Q1 and likely shrunk again in Q2, which meets the textbook definition of a recession.
As a matter of fact, you best be reading the tea leaves because we haven't seen the effects of high gas prices and the Russia/Ukraine war absorbed into the national/world economy, you will see the lagging effects from those over the next 9-15 months. So buckle up. Remember 2008? I remember paying $4+ per gallon of gas over the summer, but was paying ~$1.60 per gallon by Thanksgiving. Not predicting that exact scenario, but with a shrinking economy demand will go down as will prices.
BTW, I jumped earlier this year and sold my home / bought a bigger home b/c I saw that window of opportunity drying up.
As a matter of fact, you best be reading the tea leaves because we haven't seen the effects of high gas prices and the Russia/Ukraine war absorbed into the national/world economy, you will see the lagging effects from those over the next 9-15 months. So buckle up. Remember 2008? I remember paying $4+ per gallon of gas over the summer, but was paying ~$1.60 per gallon by Thanksgiving. Not predicting that exact scenario, but with a shrinking economy demand will go down as will prices.
BTW, I jumped earlier this year and sold my home / bought a bigger home b/c I saw that window of opportunity drying up.
Growing family?..closet space!! 3 car garage. Large kitchen.
Ok bubber, never mind costs being $225 a foot vs $150 a foot only 10 months ago to build……….and interest rates going from 2.85(where I got mine last July) to 5.5 today with another .75 hike coming.
Do the math, you are as wrong as you could be, but at least you bought and didn’t build.
Do the math, you are as wrong as you could be, but at least you bought and didn’t build.
About the same for us, if I can remember correctly. Lot clearing started in February, then months passed before they started on footers in April. From there it has been pretty consistent with a new phase starting each month. Walls were poured in May, then framing started in late June.
It's crazy how quick these guys can frame. Basement would have went a lot faster, but they ended up having to order some steel I beams and that set them back a bit. Main floor, however, was started last Monday and they had all the walls up by end of day Wednesday.
Been really cool to watch it all come together. We are going to end up spending quite a bit more than we planned when we first bought our lot back in 2020. But, this is our dream house that we have designed from the ground up. We plan to be here for 20+ years and soon raise kids in it. So, that money is justified.
Bubber? Am I a Bubber to you now? OK, Chief.
Seriously, you are looking at a snapshot of the economy right now rather than the bigger picture to see what the effects of those current conditions will be down the road. Inflation and high interest rates will stifle demand, which will increase supply, which will bring prices down, which will bring interest rates down. You are seeing an economy way out of balance right now, and equilibrium will cause that pendulum to swing in the opposite direction, just as it did in 2008.
It also doesn't help that all those supply chain issues that we have worked to resolve is dumping a lot of long-awaited supply on merchants this summer as we head into almost certain recession.
08 was driven by bad paper loans going belly up.
This isn’t that, and a comparison is the snap shot. If we were talking JUST lumber or JUST interest rates, I’d agree. But the economy is t in the shitter like it was and people are still moving forward. I’m just a small portion of the lumber industry and I have 40-50 houses on the books to finish the year. It is t the slow down you think it is.
This isn’t that, and a comparison is the snap shot. If we were talking JUST lumber or JUST interest rates, I’d agree. But the economy is t in the shitter like it was and people are still moving forward. I’m just a small portion of the lumber industry and I have 40-50 houses on the books to finish the year. It is t the slow down you think it is.
Are you seeing more cancellations though? I work in construction as well, and we have 6 months of work on the books. But we have seen cancellations pick up the pace in the last month.
I certainly could be wrong, but IMO this economy is about to say, "Oh, you think this high interest, high priced commodity economy is sustainable? Hold my beer."
I certainly could be wrong, but IMO this economy is about to say, "Oh, you think this high interest, high priced commodity economy is sustainable? Hold my beer."
08 was very different from what we are seeing in 22, primarily because there were deflation concerns then while we have rapid inflation actually occurring now.
Things are still moving well for the economy, but there are definitely sign of fractures starting to become visible.
The higher interest rates will destroy the housing market. The primary function of increasing the fed rate is to slow the economy. There is no other likely outcome.
Things are still moving well for the economy, but there are definitely sign of fractures starting to become visible.
The higher interest rates will destroy the housing market. The primary function of increasing the fed rate is to slow the economy. There is no other likely outcome.
I have no cancellations, literally none. And I’m getting more prints by the day.
If anything I’m seeing people push to start yesterday a lot harder to get it done faster.
Im pushing people away on windows and other items that take too long to get to for me and I don’t want to hear the complaints.
I agree the higher rates are designed to slow things down, but what I’ve heard more than anything the last 2 months is “ah, we don’t care it’s BS and we’ll just refi in 2 years, this is what we want and our house is selling so high we want to get the equity while it’s there”.
100x over if not more!
If anything I’m seeing people push to start yesterday a lot harder to get it done faster.
Im pushing people away on windows and other items that take too long to get to for me and I don’t want to hear the complaints.
I agree the higher rates are designed to slow things down, but what I’ve heard more than anything the last 2 months is “ah, we don’t care it’s BS and we’ll just refi in 2 years, this is what we want and our house is selling so high we want to get the equity while it’s there”.
100x over if not more!
People predicting whether the housing market will be destroyed/not destroyed right now are FOS, whether they mean to be or not. Reason being is this situation is insanely unique. There are unprecedented factors that make predictions extremely difficult right now.
-We have record low inventory. Basic supply/demand will keep prices high/level. Will the inventory grow? Maybe a little, but if you’re in a 30 year refinanced 2.5% interest what could possibly be your motivation to sell other than moving somewhere else? There are lots of homeowners that wouldn’t consider moving right now that otherwise might have in the past
-Lots of homeowners are cash flow positive. MILLIONS of people refinanced to a long term fixed low rate and have gained equity on their homes. Lowest % of ARMs in history. There is very little chance of people defaulting right now
-Record high rent. Major motivation to buy
-Private equity firms that purchase homes cash. This is brand new and having a billion dollar purchaser of homes is a bigger deal than people pretend
I mean these are just some of the things right now. It’s a very unique situation and there is no way you can realistically pretend to predict what’s going to happen
-We have record low inventory. Basic supply/demand will keep prices high/level. Will the inventory grow? Maybe a little, but if you’re in a 30 year refinanced 2.5% interest what could possibly be your motivation to sell other than moving somewhere else? There are lots of homeowners that wouldn’t consider moving right now that otherwise might have in the past
-Lots of homeowners are cash flow positive. MILLIONS of people refinanced to a long term fixed low rate and have gained equity on their homes. Lowest % of ARMs in history. There is very little chance of people defaulting right now
-Record high rent. Major motivation to buy
-Private equity firms that purchase homes cash. This is brand new and having a billion dollar purchaser of homes is a bigger deal than people pretend
I mean these are just some of the things right now. It’s a very unique situation and there is no way you can realistically pretend to predict what’s going to happen
Exact same situation for us. Designed every little detail and we have a 5,3, and 1 yr old that will grow up in this house for next 20 years. Hope yours goes smooth - this will be a good place for us to vent instead of our wives 😂
I'm sure you keep up with building trends better than I do, but rising material/labor costs, higher interests rates, recessions, and nominal wage decreases have never been good for the home building industry.
Hope your build goes smooth as well!
I'm sure my wife gets tired of my constant anxiety. My main concerns has been making sure measurements are right So I did plenty of measuring when the foundation was poured and framing started.. Not that I don't trust our builder. But, my brain will not rest until I see for myself. I've learned that it is shocking how accurate they can get.
No I absolutely agree that something’s gotta give, but in order for a “crash” to happen there needs to be a massive foreclosure wave happening to free up supply, and with the majority of homeowners locked in long term low interest loans with equity I don’t see where that’s going to come from. It’s not like 2008 with a bunch of 5/1 ARMs with no money down.
I mean even if house prices plummeted 18% the majority of 5 years or less house owners would still have positive equity. That’s crazy.
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