Breaking down the Cats and Cocks

[EliteBlue]

I really wish we would press and jam the wideouts inside the 20. What good is having big, strong corners if you don't take advantage of their physicality?

I'm usually pretty positive but have a raw gut feeling on this one.

Head says: "I think SJ commits his first turnover of the season and allows them to jump out 14-0. Thus allowing the crowd to stay a factor. Ultimately we play well from there on and get dropped 31-24."

Heart says: "we win by 3 on the final drive."

As long as we don't get boatraced and we compete then I still think we end the streak the following week to complete the split of USCjr/UF

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

I really wish we would press and jam the wideouts inside the 20s. What good is having big, strong corners if you don't take advantage of their physicality?

I'm usually pretty positive but have a raw gut feeling on this one.

Head says: "I think SJ commits his first turnover of the season and allows them to jump out 14-0. Thus allowing the crowd to stay a factor. Ultimately we play well from there on and get dropped 31-24."

Heart says: "we win by 3 on the final drive."

As long as we don't get boatraced and we compete then I still think we end the streak the following week to complete the split of USCjr/UF

I think by having the big strong corners it forces them to play off the smaller quicker guys, because if they get a quick release they will beat them off the jam because they will be quicker. The advantage they have is playing against the bigger WRs that are trending today.

 

[EliteBlue]

I think by having the big strong corners it forces them to play off the smaller quicker guys, because if they get a quick release they will beat them off the jam because they will be quicker. The advantage they have is playing against the bigger WRs that are trending today.

Which is why I said inside the 20s as in in the red zone. I guess it's a strategy debate but I'd rather take a slight risk and try to disrupt timing and cause offensive mistakes w the safeties playing over top w the short field.

We have a tendency to give 10+ yards of cushion even when inside the 10 yard line and allow the easy stuff underneath. Just don't agree w that when you essentially have he back of the end zone acting as an extra defender to cap the over the top stuff.

 

[ORCAT]

Great write up, Erik as usual. Just hope you are right but I'm not feeling very confident about this one and their crowd will be jacked.

 

[Black Diamond Cat]

I am hoping that UK has some wrinkles on both O and D that they have not shown, am sure they have, such as scripted plays for Bowden, more press coverage on WR's etc.
This as well as being in a hostile setting, with SEC network prime time coverage, leads me to believe the Cats will find a way to get it done .... UK 28 USC 24.

 

[Soupbean]

Yet again (and we've seen this SO many times over the years), opportunity knocks for Kentucky's football program. UK heads to Columbia Saturday night with a lot at stake. Heading into August, expectations for this team were pretty high. Despite playing mediocre football at times, Kentucky is 2-0 and on track for the big season that many hoped for. Staying on course requires a win at South Carolina. Can the Cats get it done? The Gamecocks are also off to a 2-0 start. UK/USC have kind of mirrored each other so far. Neither team has played consistently solid football. Both teams are probably 2-0 because of turnovers. Kentucky has won three straight in the series, so you know South Carolina will be amped up and ready to go. This game also serves as the Gamecocks home opener. Should be a fun night of SEC football.

Line: Kentucky +6.5 (Westgate)

Game time/Television: 7:30 Eastern/SEC Network

Series: South Carolina leads 17-10-1

Offense/Defense Rankings
Total Defense: Kentucky 56th (341.0), South Carolina 107th (463.5)
Total Offense: Kentucky 99th (345.0), South Carolina 113th (302.5)

Kentucky offense vs. South Carolina defense: Slight advantage Kentucky
One of the more "un-talked" about things from last weekend's game with Eastern Kentucky was how the UK offense responded after Stephen Johnson re-entered the game. Prior to Johnson leaving, UK's offense had been mostly a train wreck (over the first five quarters of the season). Upon his return, the Cats looked more like the unit we thought we'd see all season. Johnson led the Cats on TD drives of 75, 75, and 85 yards. All of those possessions featured playmakers Garrett Johnson, CJ Conrad, or Benny Snell. The offensive line played much better during that 2+ quarter window. The key to this weekend's matchup will be UK's o-line vs. SC's front seven. The Cocks are averaging 2.5 sacks per game through two weeks. If they sack UK only twice Saturday night, I think Kentucky leaves town with a win. South Carolina has played a couple of pass-happy teams, and the stats bare that out. SC is allowing 330 yards per game through the air. That ranks 121st in college football. With Juice, Conrad, Bone, and Walker, Johnson has the talent and experience at WR to have success in the passing game. After two weeks, Johnson is competing over 60% of his passes with no INT's. I think Eddie Gran should lean on the passing game a bit this week. It would be nice to see him get Epps and Bowden involved early. He should target Conrad early and often as well. South Carolina's defense has allowed a lot of yards so far, but like UK, they've forced enough turnovers to avoid disaster. Bottom line, SC doesn't have a big time d-front. NC State and Missouri moved the football pretty well against SC. UK probably will as well.

Kentucky defense vs. South Carolina offense: Slight Advantage South Carolina
South Carolina's offense has struggled to start the season (after two games, SC has just two TD drives of more than 60 yards). QB Jake Bentley has been fairly efficient though. He's competing over 60% of his passes and has just one pick in 57 attempts. The Cocks running game has been mostly woeful so far (and that's kind of surprising since NC State and Missouri don't have elite defenses). SC is averaging just over three yards per carry. South Carolina's OL hasn't allowed a lot of sacks, but that unit looks like they're having issues to me. Holes for the running game have been sparse. UK's defensive front has been stout against the run. In fact, UK's rush defense has an early season ranking of 11th nationally. So why do I give South Carolina a slight edge? I think SC will have opportunities in the passing game because of the cushion UK gives WR's. How ridiculous is the space UK's defense gives the opponent? Last week, EKU's starter went 24-35. The BACKUP went 7-8. Because UK essentially gives away 3rd and short/intermediate conversions, South Carolina probably won't need a big time running game to sustain drives. The Gamecocks don't have a plethora of offensive skill talent, but they have two studs. Everyone in the league knows about Deebo Samuel. He's averaging about 64 yards per game receiving. I'd be absolutely thrilled if that's all he gets Saturday night. I have a feeling he's gonna get a LOT more though. UK should press him with help over the top. I doubt they do it though. We'll see. TE Hayden Hurst is a big time talent as well. He's been mostly a non-factor so far (only four receptions), but he's a talented kid. How will the potential loss of Jordan Jones impact UK's ability to cover Hurst? Bottom line, if UK is aggressive on 3rd down, I think they'll be in good shape. If they play soft and allow 3rd down conversion after 3rd down conversion, the defense will get exhausted and SC will have their best offensive game of the season.

Special Teams: Advantage South Carolina
How scary is this? Deebo Samuel is probably the best kick returner in college football. If not for Samuel's ability to return kicks, South Carolina might be 0-2 right now. On the flip side, Kentucky CONTINUES to have issues with kick return coverage. This is a potentially huge matchup advantage for South Carolina. Kentucky's Austin MacGinnis has to either drive every kick out of the endzone (not something he's ever really done in a game), squib kick (gives away field position), or directional kick (risks going out of bounds and again, giving away field position). Whatever UK tries though, allowing Samuel to return kicks can't be one of the options.

Kentucky will win if...they dominate up front (and they could) and avoid turnovers. Defensively, House has to take Samuel out of the game and make others beat him. Easier said than done.

South Carolina will win if...they keep UK in 3rd and long and get Samuel going in the passing game. They also need to win the turnover battle, IMO.

Prediction...Kentucky 24 South Carolina 21...The Cats are 3-1 in their last four true road games. Unless they finish -2 or worse with turnover margin, I like their chances this weekend. I like UK in the trenches against SC on both sides. I like UK's running game potential. I think Bowden or Epps makes a big play. Cats move to 3-0!

Previous Picks
(2-0 SU, 0-1 ATS)
UK 34 Southern Miss 20 (UK -10.5)
UK 48 Eastern Kentucky 10 (no line)

GBB!!!

Erik you hit exactly on the key to me when you pointed out the cushion given by our CB's. I think the key to this game is Westry and Baity. They have to tighten up and man up so that we can give more help on Hurst and bring more pressure on Bentley. I think out game plan should be to make them one dimensional and make Bentley beat us under pressure the whole game. He seemed a little wild when hurried from what I saw. He will make some throws but will turn it over some too with constant pressure, but we can't do that allowing him easy out and hooks to move the chains. Westry and Baity have got to play better and make plays.

 

[UKCatnNC]

Thanks UKErik! I hope that you are correct with your prediction. I believe we will see a better Cat team and the game will be very competitive. GO CATS!!

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

Erik you hit exactly on the key to me when you pointed out the cushion given by our CB's. I think the key to this game is Westry and Baity. They have to tighten up and man up so that we can give more help on Hurst and bring more pressure on Bentley. I think out game plan should be to make them one dimensional and make Bentley beat us under pressure the whole game. He seemed a little wild when hurried from what I saw. He will make some throws but will turn it over some too with constant pressure, but we can't do that allowing him easy out and hooks to move the chains. Westry and Baity have got to play better and make plays.

Carolina backs haven't looked anything but average other than their spring game, until they showed they could run the ball consistently I would run my Nickle package and try to force them to run the ball. UK should be able to get plenty of pressure with their edge rushers. The issue is the DL has to step up better than they have to stop the run. If you are daring them to run, better be able to stop it.

 

[JC CATS]

Please tell me who is replacing Toth, Boom, JoJo, and Badet to make us better than last year? The win over Otis is a thing of the past and I know that is what every body is hanging their hats on. Will be in Columbia Sat so hoping you are right

Um, we have some players back, presumably they are better. EVERY team loses players to graduation and injury. You will see more people step up and be as good or better than some of these guys

 

[sluggercatfan]

Um, we have some players back, presumably they are better. EVERY team loses players to graduation and injury. You will see more people step up and be as good or better than some of these guys

How's that looking for Sat? I will be in attendance and hope we don't have to hear that stupid chicken much, but I'll say SC 31-18.

 

[ekywildcat]

I agree with the posters saying Stoops and Gran will show way more of the offense this game. No reason not to get the ball to Conrad more and our other receivers who are 'possed to be SEC caliber.
If they haven't been holding back, God help us.

 

[RoosterBooster1]

How's that looking for Sat? I will be in attendance and hope we don't have to hear that stupid chicken much, but I'll say SC 31-18.

Let me know if you need info on best tailgate spots, we enjoy celebrating game day with visitors. Safe travels

 

[UNIVKY]

UNIVKY, I really thought Marshall won the battle up front with NC State (they certainly moved the ball pretty well, mostly in the first half). After two games, the Wolfpack only have four sacks. Not sure they're gonna wind up being one of the better d-lines in America.

GBB!!!

I know my State buddies have been very disappointed with their D

 

[UKWinsAgainYep]

Just watched Stoops' presser. He doesn't look confident at all about this game especially with Jones out. He must not like the film he's been watching.

I don't have a good feeling about this game. I'd say we'd be lucky to win considering we can't seem to establish a running game. Hope I'm wrong.

 

[cardkilla]

Just watched Stoops' presser. He doesn't look confident at all about this game especially with Jones out. He must not like the film he's been watching.

I don't have a good feeling about this game. I'd say we'd be lucky to win considering we can't seem to establish a running game. Hope I'm wrong.

We had 207 yards rushing in the last game, 222 if you take away the -15 rushing yards for Drew Barker. Do we need like 400 yards for you to think we 'established the run'?

I'm curious how you ascertain that 'he doesn't look confident' about this game? Just a ridiculous statement imo.

 

[CapnBlubs]

I don't know why so many people are so confident. I wish I felt the same way.

We got three close home wins last year against the three traditional toss-up opponents...all are on the road this year.

We got one HUGE win last year on the road at UofL (one of my favorite wins all time as a UK football fan) that continues to cloud everyone's judgement about our ceiling.

Our offensive line hasn't looked the same protecting Johnson or opening holes for the run (we miss Toth a lot)...Eastern's WRs quite seriously outperfomed ours the entire game...they looked stronger fighting for space and the ball.

I could much more easily see giving the two defenses the edge in this matchup so I was pretty surprised to see Erik's summary go the opposite way.

Like some others, I find it pretty hard to believe that Stoops/Gran were holding back so much that we had an excuse to struggle THAT mightily. Would you really risk the embarrassment of losing to EKU for the sake of game-planning? You're crazy if you think we had that game the whole way.

Maybe we look totally different on Saturday. I truly hope so. I don't feel optimistic.

 

[VFO]

I don't know why so many people are so confident. I wish I felt the same way.

We got three close home wins last year against the three traditional toss-up opponents...all are on the road this year.

We got one HUGE win last year on the road at UofL (one of my favorite wins all time as a UK football fan) that continues to cloud everyone's judgement about our ceiling.

Our offensive line hasn't looked the same protecting Johnson or opening holes for the run (we miss Toth a lot)...Eastern's WRs quite seriously outperfomed ours the entire game...they looked stronger fighting for space and the ball.

I could much more easily see giving the two defenses the edge in this matchup so I was pretty surprised to see Erik's summary go the opposite way.

Like some others, I find it pretty hard to believe that Stoops/Gran were holding back so much that we had an excuse to struggle THAT mightily. Would you really risk the embarrassment of losing to EKU for the sake of game-planning? You're crazy if you think we had that game the whole way.

Maybe we look totally different on Saturday. I truly hope so. I don't feel optimistic.

Call me crazy, but, I believe we could have won by 30 if we had displayed the whole package. Why do so? To appease fans that have no confidence in this team unless they win by 35 points every game? I think not.

 

[sluggercatfan]

Let me know if you need info on best tailgate spots, we enjoy celebrating game day with visitors. Safe travels

Won't be tailgating Sat, but we are always up for free food!

 

[CapnBlubs]

Call me crazy, but, I believe we could have won by 30 if we had displayed the whole package. Why do so? To appease fans that have no confidence in this team unless they win by 35 points every game? I think not.

I'm not saying a win by 30 was necessary.

But putting a game against a lesser opponent in that much doubt would be crazy.

Which is why I don't believe that's what happened. I believe we were genuinely trying our best and just playing horribly.

 

[maysvilleky]

3 things you included which give me huge hesitation to pick UK in this one. 1...It's at SC...If they gain any momentum, the crowd will definitely be a factor. 2...Turnovers...So far UK has won the TO battle. SC has also done the same to a huge advantage. So I think whoever wins the TO battle wins this one. and 3...Jordan Jones...If he's out, I think UK becomes weaker in tackling in space.

Well with Jones definitely out, there is one of the 3 things I thought could be a big factor in the game. Now I think if U doesn't win the TO battle by 2 - 3 TO's I think the home field will be too much to overcome.

 

[katfanuno]

Great Job UKERIK, im not as confident in the oline establishing a run game and Im not convinced the receivers can get separation. I think SC takes this one big, hope im wrong.

 

[LouievileKat]

While I agree the staff have been incredibly vanilla "Holding Back" and running basic stuff the first two games of the year, we'll Id feel a lot more confident if we ran the basic stuff better. We certainly haven't been holding back on offensive line, juggling starters trying to find a combination that works well together due to injury has been a bit brutal.

I hope we win, I expect a close game decided by turnovers. Nice write up as always Eric.

 

[rye48]

UK27 USC24 Just a feeling !

 

[Six Million Dollar Man]

I really wish we would press and jam the wideouts inside the 20. What good is having big, strong corners if you don't take advantage of their physicality?

I'm usually pretty positive but have a raw gut feeling on this one.

Head says: "I think SJ commits his first turnover of the season and allows them to jump out 14-0. Thus allowing the crowd to stay a factor. Ultimately we play well from there on and get dropped 31-24."

Heart says: "we win by 3 on the final drive."

As long as we don't get boatraced and we compete then I still think we end the streak the following week to complete the split of USCjr/UF

Man, we don't boat race anyone. I think this will be close and could go either way.

 

[LowCountryCat]

If we have to score 24 to win, it's not gonna happen.

 

[Jbapp1978]

Yet again (and we've seen this SO many times over the years), opportunity knocks for Kentucky's football program. UK heads to Columbia Saturday night with a lot at stake. Heading into August, expectations for this team were pretty high. Despite playing mediocre football at times, Kentucky is 2-0 and on track for the big season that many hoped for. Staying on course requires a win at South Carolina. Can the Cats get it done? The Gamecocks are also off to a 2-0 start. UK/USC have kind of mirrored each other so far. Neither team has played consistently solid football. Both teams are probably 2-0 because of turnovers. Kentucky has won three straight in the series, so you know South Carolina will be amped up and ready to go. This game also serves as the Gamecocks home opener. Should be a fun night of SEC football.

Line: Kentucky +6.5 (Westgate)

Game time/Television: 7:30 Eastern/SEC Network

Series: South Carolina leads 17-10-1

Offense/Defense Rankings
Total Defense: Kentucky 56th (341.0), South Carolina 107th (463.5)
Total Offense: Kentucky 99th (345.0), South Carolina 113th (302.5)

Kentucky offense vs. South Carolina defense: Slight advantage Kentucky
One of the more "un-talked" about things from last weekend's game with Eastern Kentucky was how the UK offense responded after Stephen Johnson re-entered the game. Prior to Johnson leaving, UK's offense had been mostly a train wreck (over the first five quarters of the season). Upon his return, the Cats looked more like the unit we thought we'd see all season. Johnson led the Cats on TD drives of 75, 75, and 85 yards. All of those possessions featured playmakers Garrett Johnson, CJ Conrad, or Benny Snell. The offensive line played much better during that 2+ quarter window. The key to this weekend's matchup will be UK's o-line vs. SC's front seven. The Cocks are averaging 2.5 sacks per game through two weeks. If they sack UK only twice Saturday night, I think Kentucky leaves town with a win. South Carolina has played a couple of pass-happy teams, and the stats bare that out. SC is allowing 330 yards per game through the air. That ranks 121st in college football. With Juice, Conrad, Bone, and Walker, Johnson has the talent and experience at WR to have success in the passing game. After two weeks, Johnson is competing over 60% of his passes with no INT's. I think Eddie Gran should lean on the passing game a bit this week. It would be nice to see him get Epps and Bowden involved early. He should target Conrad early and often as well. South Carolina's defense has allowed a lot of yards so far, but like UK, they've forced enough turnovers to avoid disaster. Bottom line, SC doesn't have a big time d-front. NC State and Missouri moved the football pretty well against SC. UK probably will as well.

Kentucky defense vs. South Carolina offense: Slight Advantage South Carolina
South Carolina's offense has struggled to start the season (after two games, SC has just two TD drives of more than 60 yards). QB Jake Bentley has been fairly efficient though. He's competing over 60% of his passes and has just one pick in 57 attempts. The Cocks running game has been mostly woeful so far (and that's kind of surprising since NC State and Missouri don't have elite defenses). SC is averaging just over three yards per carry. South Carolina's OL hasn't allowed a lot of sacks, but that unit looks like they're having issues to me. Holes for the running game have been sparse. UK's defensive front has been stout against the run. In fact, UK's rush defense has an early season ranking of 11th nationally. So why do I give South Carolina a slight edge? I think SC will have opportunities in the passing game because of the cushion UK gives WR's. How ridiculous is the space UK's defense gives the opponent? Last week, EKU's starter went 24-35. The BACKUP went 7-8. Because UK essentially gives away 3rd and short/intermediate conversions, South Carolina probably won't need a big time running game to sustain drives. The Gamecocks don't have a plethora of offensive skill talent, but they have two studs. Everyone in the league knows about Deebo Samuel. He's averaging about 64 yards per game receiving. I'd be absolutely thrilled if that's all he gets Saturday night. I have a feeling he's gonna get a LOT more though. UK should press him with help over the top. I doubt they do it though. We'll see. TE Hayden Hurst is a big time talent as well. He's been mostly a non-factor so far (only four receptions), but he's a talented kid. How will the potential loss of Jordan Jones impact UK's ability to cover Hurst? Bottom line, if UK is aggressive on 3rd down, I think they'll be in good shape. If they play soft and allow 3rd down conversion after 3rd down conversion, the defense will get exhausted and SC will have their best offensive game of the season.

Special Teams: Advantage South Carolina
How scary is this? Deebo Samuel is probably the best kick returner in college football. If not for Samuel's ability to return kicks, South Carolina might be 0-2 right now. On the flip side, Kentucky CONTINUES to have issues with kick return coverage. This is a potentially huge matchup advantage for South Carolina. Kentucky's Austin MacGinnis has to either drive every kick out of the endzone (not something he's ever really done in a game), squib kick (gives away field position), or directional kick (risks going out of bounds and again, giving away field position). Whatever UK tries though, allowing Samuel to return kicks can't be one of the options.

Kentucky will win if...they dominate up front (and they could) and avoid turnovers. Defensively, House has to take Samuel out of the game and make others beat him. Easier said than done.

South Carolina will win if...they keep UK in 3rd and long and get Samuel going in the passing game. They also need to win the turnover battle, IMO.

Prediction...Kentucky 24 South Carolina 21...The Cats are 3-1 in their last four true road games. Unless they finish -2 or worse with turnover margin, I like their chances this weekend. I like UK in the trenches against SC on both sides. I like UK's running game potential. I think Bowden or Epps makes a big play. Cats move to 3-0!

Previous Picks
(2-0 SU, 0-1 ATS)
UK 34 Southern Miss 20 (UK -10.5)
UK 48 Eastern Kentucky 10 (no line)

GBB!!!

UK is 3-1 in last 4 True road games. Our overall record last 10 years is 46-and 66.
If you would actually count the SEC road wins? We have only won away 10 times in 10 years. Damn.