Breaking down the Cats and Cocks

[UKErik]

Yet again (and we've seen this SO many times over the years), opportunity knocks for Kentucky's football program. UK heads to Columbia Saturday night with a lot at stake. Heading into August, expectations for this team were pretty high. Despite playing mediocre football at times, Kentucky is 2-0 and on track for the big season that many hoped for. Staying on course requires a win at South Carolina. Can the Cats get it done? The Gamecocks are also off to a 2-0 start. UK/USC have kind of mirrored each other so far. Neither team has played consistently solid football. Both teams are probably 2-0 because of turnovers. Kentucky has won three straight in the series, so you know South Carolina will be amped up and ready to go. This game also serves as the Gamecocks home opener. Should be a fun night of SEC football.

Line: Kentucky +6.5 (Westgate)

Game time/Television: 7:30 Eastern/SEC Network

Series: South Carolina leads 17-10-1

Offense/Defense Rankings
Total Defense: Kentucky 56th (341.0), South Carolina 107th (463.5)
Total Offense: Kentucky 99th (345.0), South Carolina 113th (302.5)

Kentucky offense vs. South Carolina defense: Slight advantage Kentucky
One of the more "un-talked" about things from last weekend's game with Eastern Kentucky was how the UK offense responded after Stephen Johnson re-entered the game. Prior to Johnson leaving, UK's offense had been mostly a train wreck (over the first five quarters of the season). Upon his return, the Cats looked more like the unit we thought we'd see all season. Johnson led the Cats on TD drives of 75, 75, and 85 yards. All of those possessions featured playmakers Garrett Johnson, CJ Conrad, or Benny Snell. The offensive line played much better during that 2+ quarter window. The key to this weekend's matchup will be UK's o-line vs. SC's front seven. The Cocks are averaging 2.5 sacks per game through two weeks. If they sack UK only twice Saturday night, I think Kentucky leaves town with a win. South Carolina has played a couple of pass-happy teams, and the stats bare that out. SC is allowing 330 yards per game through the air. That ranks 121st in college football. With Juice, Conrad, Bone, and Walker, Johnson has the talent and experience at WR to have success in the passing game. After two weeks, Johnson is competing over 60% of his passes with no INT's. I think Eddie Gran should lean on the passing game a bit this week. It would be nice to see him get Epps and Bowden involved early. He should target Conrad early and often as well. South Carolina's defense has allowed a lot of yards so far, but like UK, they've forced enough turnovers to avoid disaster. Bottom line, SC doesn't have a big time d-front. NC State and Missouri moved the football pretty well against SC. UK probably will as well.

Kentucky defense vs. South Carolina offense: Slight Advantage South Carolina
South Carolina's offense has struggled to start the season (after two games, SC has just two TD drives of more than 60 yards). QB Jake Bentley has been fairly efficient though. He's competing over 60% of his passes and has just one pick in 57 attempts. The Cocks running game has been mostly woeful so far (and that's kind of surprising since NC State and Missouri don't have elite defenses). SC is averaging just over three yards per carry. South Carolina's OL hasn't allowed a lot of sacks, but that unit looks like they're having issues to me. Holes for the running game have been sparse. UK's defensive front has been stout against the run. In fact, UK's rush defense has an early season ranking of 11th nationally. So why do I give South Carolina a slight edge? I think SC will have opportunities in the passing game because of the cushion UK gives WR's. How ridiculous is the space UK's defense gives the opponent? Last week, EKU's starter went 24-35. The BACKUP went 7-8. Because UK essentially gives away 3rd and short/intermediate conversions, South Carolina probably won't need a big time running game to sustain drives. The Gamecocks don't have a plethora of offensive skill talent, but they have two studs. Everyone in the league knows about Deebo Samuel. He's averaging about 64 yards per game receiving. I'd be absolutely thrilled if that's all he gets Saturday night. I have a feeling he's gonna get a LOT more though. UK should press him with help over the top. I doubt they do it though. We'll see. TE Hayden Hurst is a big time talent as well. He's been mostly a non-factor so far (only four receptions), but he's a talented kid. How will the potential loss of Jordan Jones impact UK's ability to cover Hurst? Bottom line, if UK is aggressive on 3rd down, I think they'll be in good shape. If they play soft and allow 3rd down conversion after 3rd down conversion, the defense will get exhausted and SC will have their best offensive game of the season.

Special Teams: Advantage South Carolina
How scary is this? Deebo Samuel is probably the best kick returner in college football. If not for Samuel's ability to return kicks, South Carolina might be 0-2 right now. On the flip side, Kentucky CONTINUES to have issues with kick return coverage. This is a potentially huge matchup advantage for South Carolina. Kentucky's Austin MacGinnis has to either drive every kick out of the endzone (not something he's ever really done in a game), squib kick (gives away field position), or directional kick (risks going out of bounds and again, giving away field position). Whatever UK tries though, allowing Samuel to return kicks can't be one of the options.

Kentucky will win if...they dominate up front (and they could) and avoid turnovers. Defensively, House has to take Samuel out of the game and make others beat him. Easier said than done.

South Carolina will win if...they keep UK in 3rd and long and get Samuel going in the passing game. They also need to win the turnover battle, IMO.

Prediction...Kentucky 24 South Carolina 21...The Cats are 3-1 in their last four true road games. Unless they finish -2 or worse with turnover margin, I like their chances this weekend. I like UK in the trenches against SC on both sides. I like UK's running game potential. I think Bowden or Epps makes a big play. Cats move to 3-0!

Previous Picks
(2-0 SU, 0-1 ATS)
UK 34 Southern Miss 20 (UK -10.5)
UK 48 Eastern Kentucky 10 (no line)

GBB!!!

 

[sluggercatfan]

Yet again (and we've seen this SO many times over the years), opportunity knocks for Kentucky's football program. UK heads to Columbia Saturday night with a lot at stake. Heading into August, expectations for this team were pretty high. Despite playing mediocre football at times, Kentucky is 2-0 and on track for the big season that many hoped for. Staying on course requires a win at South Carolina. Can the Cats get it done? The Gamecocks are also off to a 2-0 start. UK/USC have kind of mirrored each other so far. Neither team has played consistently solid football. Both teams are probably 2-0 because of turnovers. Kentucky has won three straight in the series, so you know South Carolina will be amped up and ready to go. This game also serves as the Gamecocks home opener. Should be a fun night of SEC football.

Line: Kentucky +6.5 (Westgate)

Game time/Television: 7:30 Eastern/SEC Network

Series: South Carolina leads 17-10-1

Offense/Defense Rankings
Total Defense: Kentucky 56th (341.0), South Carolina 107th (463.5)
Total Offense: Kentucky 99th (345.0), South Carolina 113th (302.5)

Kentucky offense vs. South Carolina defense: Slight advantage Kentucky
One of the more "un-talked" about things from last weekend's game with Eastern Kentucky was how the UK offense responded after Stephen Johnson re-entered the game. Prior to Johnson leaving, UK's offense had been mostly a train wreck (over the first five quarters of the season). Upon his return, the Cats looked more like the unit we thought we'd see all season. Johnson led the Cats on TD drives of 75, 75, and 85 yards. All of those possessions featured playmakers Garrett Johnson, CJ Conrad, or Benny Snell. The offensive line played much better during that 2+ quarter window. The key to this weekend's matchup will be UK's o-line vs. SC's front seven. The Cocks are averaging 2.5 sacks per game through two weeks. If they sack UK only twice Saturday night, I think Kentucky leaves town with a win. South Carolina has played a couple of pass-happy teams, and the stats bare that out. SC is allowing 330 yards per game through the air. That ranks 121st in college football. With Juice, Conrad, Bone, and Walker, Johnson has the talent and experience at WR to have success in the passing game. After two weeks, Johnson is competing over 60% of his passes with no INT's. I think Eddie Gran should lean on the passing game a bit this week. It would be nice to see him get Epps and Bowden involved early. He should target Conrad early and often as well. South Carolina's defense has allowed a lot of yards so far, but like UK, they've forced enough turnovers to avoid disaster. Bottom line, SC doesn't have a big time d-front. NC State and Missouri moved the football pretty well against SC. UK probably will as well.

Kentucky defense vs. South Carolina offense: Slight Advantage South Carolina
South Carolina's offense has struggled to start the season (after two games, SC has just two TD drives of more than 60 yards). QB Jake Bentley has been fairly efficient though. He's competing over 60% of his passes and has just one pick in 57 attempts. The Cocks running game has been mostly woeful so far (and that's kind of surprising since NC State and Missouri don't have elite defenses). SC is averaging just over three yards per carry. South Carolina's OL hasn't allowed a lot of sacks, but that unit looks like they're having issues to me. Holes for the running game have been sparse. UK's defensive front has been stout against the run. In fact, UK's rush defense has an early season ranking of 11th nationally. So why do I give South Carolina a slight edge? I think SC will have opportunities in the passing game because of the cushion UK gives WR's. How ridiculous is the space UK's defense gives the opponent? Last week, EKU's starter went 24-35. The BACKUP went 7-8. Because UK essentially gives away 3rd and short/intermediate conversions, South Carolina probably won't need a big time running game to sustain drives. The Gamecocks don't have a plethora of offensive skill talent, but they have two studs. Everyone in the league knows about Deebo Samuel. He's averaging about 64 yards per game receiving. I'd be absolutely thrilled if that's all he gets Saturday night. I have a feeling he's gonna get a LOT more though. UK should press him with help over the top. I doubt they do it though. We'll see. TE Hayden Hurst is a big time talent as well. He's been mostly a non-factor so far (only four receptions), but he's a talented kid. How will the potential loss of Jordan Jones impact UK's ability to cover Hurst? Bottom line, if UK is aggressive on 3rd down, I think they'll be in good shape. If they play soft and allow 3rd down conversion after 3rd down conversion, the defense will get exhausted and SC will have their best offensive game of the season.

Special Teams: Advantage South Carolina
How scary is this? Deebo Samuel is probably the best kick returner in college football. If not for Samuel's ability to return kicks, South Carolina might be 0-2 right now. On the flip side, Kentucky CONTINUES to have issues with kick return coverage. This is a potentially huge matchup advantage for South Carolina. Kentucky's Austin MacGinnis has to either drive every kick out of the endzone (not something he's ever really done in a game), squib kick (gives away field position), or directional kick (risks going out of bounds and again, giving away field position). Whatever UK tries though, allowing Samuel to return kicks can't be one of the options.

Kentucky will win if...they dominate up front (and they could) and avoid turnovers. Defensively, House has to take Samuel out of the game and make others beat him. Easier said than done.

South Carolina will win if...they keep UK in 3rd and long and get Samuel going in the passing game. They also need to win the turnover battle, IMO.

Prediction...Kentucky 24 South Carolina 21...The Cats are 3-1 in their last four true road games. Unless they finish -2 or worse with turnover margin, I like their chances this weekend. I like UK in the trenches against SC on both sides. I like UK's running game potential. I think Bowden or Epps makes a big play. Cats move to 3-0!

Previous Picks
(2-0 SU, 0-1 ATS)
UK 34 Southern Miss 20 (UK -10.5)
UK 48 Eastern Kentucky 10 (no line)

GBB!!!

Hope you are right Erik...I just don't see it.

 

[zcats]

Nice write up, I agree, now here come 9000 posts

 

[UKErik]

slugger, did you see something from South Carolina that gives you pause, or is it a lack of confidence in Kentucky?

GBB!!!

 

[AllCatsEverything5]

slugger, did you see something from South Carolina that gives you pause, or is it a lack of confidence in Kentucky?

GBB!!!

Your prediction was similar to mine and said pretty much everything I've been telling people. Too many people acting like Bentley is a world beater, I'm just worried about kick returns and Samuel getting deep.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

Yet again (and we've seen this SO many times over the years), opportunity knocks for Kentucky's football program. UK heads to Columbia Saturday night with a lot at stake. Heading into August, expectations for this team were pretty high. Despite playing mediocre football at times, Kentucky is 2-0 and on track for the big season that many hoped for. Staying on course requires a win at South Carolina. Can the Cats get it done? The Gamecocks are also off to a 2-0 start. UK/USC have kind of mirrored each other so far. Neither team has played consistently solid football. Both teams are probably 2-0 because of turnovers. Kentucky has won three straight in the series, so you know South Carolina will be amped up and ready to go. This game also serves as the Gamecocks home opener. Should be a fun night of SEC football.

Line: Kentucky +6.5 (Westgate)

Game time/Television: 7:30 Eastern/SEC Network

Series: South Carolina leads 17-10-1

Offense/Defense Rankings
Total Defense: Kentucky 56th (341.0), South Carolina 107th (463.5)
Total Offense: Kentucky 99th (345.0), South Carolina 113th (302.5)

Kentucky offense vs. South Carolina defense: Slight advantage Kentucky
One of the more "un-talked" about things from last weekend's game with Eastern Kentucky was how the UK offense responded after Stephen Johnson re-entered the game. Prior to Johnson leaving, UK's offense had been mostly a train wreck (over the first five quarters of the season). Upon his return, the Cats looked more like the unit we thought we'd see all season. Johnson led the Cats on TD drives of 75, 75, and 85 yards. All of those possessions featured playmakers Garrett Johnson, CJ Conrad, or Benny Snell. The offensive line played much better during that 2+ quarter window. The key to this weekend's matchup will be UK's o-line vs. SC's front seven. The Cocks are averaging 2.5 sacks per game through two weeks. If they sack UK only twice Saturday night, I think Kentucky leaves town with a win. South Carolina has played a couple of pass-happy teams, and the stats bare that out. SC is allowing 330 yards per game through the air. That ranks 121st in college football. With Juice, Conrad, Bone, and Walker, Johnson has the talent and experience at WR to have success in the passing game. After two weeks, Johnson is competing over 60% of his passes with no INT's. I think Eddie Gran should lean on the passing game a bit this week. It would be nice to see him get Epps and Bowden involved early. He should target Conrad early and often as well. South Carolina's defense has allowed a lot of yards so far, but like UK, they've forced enough turnovers to avoid disaster. Bottom line, SC doesn't have a big time d-front. NC State and Missouri moved the football pretty well against SC. UK probably will as well.

Kentucky defense vs. South Carolina offense: Slight Advantage South Carolina
South Carolina's offense has struggled to start the season (after two games, SC has just two TD drives of more than 60 yards). QB Jake Bentley has been fairly efficient though. He's competing over 60% of his passes and has just one pick in 57 attempts. The Cocks running game has been mostly woeful so far (and that's kind of surprising since NC State and Missouri don't have elite defenses). SC is averaging just over three yards per carry. South Carolina's OL hasn't allowed a lot of sacks, but that unit looks like they're having issues to me. Holes for the running game have been sparse. UK's defensive front has been stout against the run. In fact, UK's rush defense has an early season ranking of 11th nationally. So why do I give South Carolina a slight edge? I think SC will have opportunities in the passing game because of the cushion UK gives WR's. How ridiculous is the space UK's defense gives the opponent? Last week, EKU's starter went 24-35. The BACKUP went 7-8. Because UK essentially gives away 3rd and short/intermediate conversions, South Carolina probably won't need a big time running game to sustain drives. The Gamecocks don't have a plethora of offensive skill talent, but they have two studs. Everyone in the league knows about Deebo Samuel. He's averaging about 64 yards per game receiving. I'd be absolutely thrilled if that's all he gets Saturday night. I have a feeling he's gonna get a LOT more though. UK should press him with help over the top. I doubt they do it though. We'll see. TE Hayden Hurst is a big time talent as well. He's been mostly a non-factor so far (only four receptions), but he's a talented kid. How will the potential loss of Jordan Jones impact UK's ability to cover Hurst? Bottom line, if UK is aggressive on 3rd down, I think they'll be in good shape. If they play soft and allow 3rd down conversion after 3rd down conversion, the defense will get exhausted and SC will have their best offensive game of the season.

Special Teams: Advantage South Carolina
How scary is this? Deebo Samuel is probably the best kick returner in college football. If not for Samuel's ability to return kicks, South Carolina might be 0-2 right now. On the flip side, Kentucky CONTINUES to have issues with kick return coverage. This is a potentially huge matchup advantage for South Carolina. Kentucky's Austin MacGinnis has to either drive every kick out of the endzone (not something he's ever really done in a game), squib kick (gives away field position), or directional kick (risks going out of bounds and again, giving away field position). Whatever UK tries though, allowing Samuel to return kicks can't be one of the options.

Kentucky will win if...they dominate up front (and they could) and avoid turnovers. Defensively, House has to take Samuel out of the game and make others beat him. Easier said than done.

South Carolina will win if...they keep UK in 3rd and long and get Samuel going in the passing game. They also need to win the turnover battle, IMO.

Prediction...Kentucky 24 South Carolina 21...The Cats are 3-1 in their last four true road games. Unless they finish -2 or worse with turnover margin, I like their chances this weekend. I like UK in the trenches against SC on both sides. I like UK's running game potential. I think Bowden or Epps makes a big play. Cats move to 3-0!

Previous Picks
(2-0 SU, 0-1 ATS)
UK 34 Southern Miss 20 (UK -10.5)
UK 48 Eastern Kentucky 10 (no line)

GBB!!!

I think that is a pretty fair evaluation. I think any advantage are very slight. In fact, I would give each defense a very slight advantage over each offense, but not enough to see it couldn't go either way. Both defenses have shown the ability to get turnovers, and neither offense has been consistent. The only real advantage is Carolina's return game and that should be easy to stop, even kicking it out of bounds, Carolina hasn't shown the ability to take it 65 yards to score. I think the game turns on 1 maybe 2 plays, a turnover, a crucial penalty or a big play in special teams. Should be a good game, maybe the best in the conference this weekend.

 

[matt_man]

I agree about our pass coverage. I feel like we're playing way too passive and trying to avoid interference calls. Meanwhile their defenders hang on our shoulders trying to "make a play for the ball". I like our ability to prevent further damage after the catch but if we don't play more aggressive on pass coverage, Samuels and Hurst will make routine 10-15 yds plays all evening. Unfortunately aggression + road game= yellow flags

 

[UNIVKY]

What's funny is I live in North Carolina and the talk all summer is how nc state has one of, if not the best d lines in the country so I was surprised by your comment about their defense.

 

[mark0202]

Yet again (and we've seen this SO many times over the years), opportunity knocks for Kentucky's football program. UK heads to Columbia Saturday night with a lot at stake. Heading into August, expectations for this team were pretty high. Despite playing mediocre football at times, Kentucky is 2-0 and on track for the big season that many hoped for. Staying on course requires a win at South Carolina. Can the Cats get it done? The Gamecocks are also off to a 2-0 start. UK/USC have kind of mirrored each other so far. Neither team has played consistently solid football. Both teams are probably 2-0 because of turnovers. Kentucky has won three straight in the series, so you know South Carolina will be amped up and ready to go. This game also serves as the Gamecocks home opener. Should be a fun night of SEC football.

Line: Kentucky +6.5 (Westgate)

Game time/Television: 7:30 Eastern/SEC Network

Series: South Carolina leads 17-10-1

Offense/Defense Rankings
Total Defense: Kentucky 56th (341.0), South Carolina 107th (463.5)
Total Offense: Kentucky 99th (345.0), South Carolina 113th (302.5)

Kentucky offense vs. South Carolina defense: Slight advantage Kentucky
One of the more "un-talked" about things from last weekend's game with Eastern Kentucky was how the UK offense responded after Stephen Johnson re-entered the game. Prior to Johnson leaving, UK's offense had been mostly a train wreck (over the first five quarters of the season). Upon his return, the Cats looked more like the unit we thought we'd see all season. Johnson led the Cats on TD drives of 75, 75, and 85 yards. All of those possessions featured playmakers Garrett Johnson, CJ Conrad, or Benny Snell. The offensive line played much better during that 2+ quarter window. The key to this weekend's matchup will be UK's o-line vs. SC's front seven. The Cocks are averaging 2.5 sacks per game through two weeks. If they sack UK only twice Saturday night, I think Kentucky leaves town with a win. South Carolina has played a couple of pass-happy teams, and the stats bare that out. SC is allowing 330 yards per game through the air. That ranks 121st in college football. With Juice, Conrad, Bone, and Walker, Johnson has the talent and experience at WR to have success in the passing game. After two weeks, Johnson is competing over 60% of his passes with no INT's. I think Eddie Gran should lean on the passing game a bit this week. It would be nice to see him get Epps and Bowden involved early. He should target Conrad early and often as well. South Carolina's defense has allowed a lot of yards so far, but like UK, they've forced enough turnovers to avoid disaster. Bottom line, SC doesn't have a big time d-front. NC State and Missouri moved the football pretty well against SC. UK probably will as well.

Kentucky defense vs. South Carolina offense: Slight Advantage South Carolina
South Carolina's offense has struggled to start the season (after two games, SC has just two TD drives of more than 60 yards). QB Jake Bentley has been fairly efficient though. He's competing over 60% of his passes and has just one pick in 57 attempts. The Cocks running game has been mostly woeful so far (and that's kind of surprising since NC State and Missouri don't have elite defenses). SC is averaging just over three yards per carry. South Carolina's OL hasn't allowed a lot of sacks, but that unit looks like they're having issues to me. Holes for the running game have been sparse. UK's defensive front has been stout against the run. In fact, UK's rush defense has an early season ranking of 11th nationally. So why do I give South Carolina a slight edge? I think SC will have opportunities in the passing game because of the cushion UK gives WR's. How ridiculous is the space UK's defense gives the opponent? Last week, EKU's starter went 24-35. The BACKUP went 7-8. Because UK essentially gives away 3rd and short/intermediate conversions, South Carolina probably won't need a big time running game to sustain drives. The Gamecocks don't have a plethora of offensive skill talent, but they have two studs. Everyone in the league knows about Deebo Samuel. He's averaging about 64 yards per game receiving. I'd be absolutely thrilled if that's all he gets Saturday night. I have a feeling he's gonna get a LOT more though. UK should press him with help over the top. I doubt they do it though. We'll see. TE Hayden Hurst is a big time talent as well. He's been mostly a non-factor so far (only four receptions), but he's a talented kid. How will the potential loss of Jordan Jones impact UK's ability to cover Hurst? Bottom line, if UK is aggressive on 3rd down, I think they'll be in good shape. If they play soft and allow 3rd down conversion after 3rd down conversion, the defense will get exhausted and SC will have their best offensive game of the season.

Special Teams: Advantage South Carolina
How scary is this? Deebo Samuel is probably the best kick returner in college football. If not for Samuel's ability to return kicks, South Carolina might be 0-2 right now. On the flip side, Kentucky CONTINUES to have issues with kick return coverage. This is a potentially huge matchup advantage for South Carolina. Kentucky's Austin MacGinnis has to either drive every kick out of the endzone (not something he's ever really done in a game), squib kick (gives away field position), or directional kick (risks going out of bounds and again, giving away field position). Whatever UK tries though, allowing Samuel to return kicks can't be one of the options.

Kentucky will win if...they dominate up front (and they could) and avoid turnovers. Defensively, House has to take Samuel out of the game and make others beat him. Easier said than done.

South Carolina will win if...they keep UK in 3rd and long and get Samuel going in the passing game. They also need to win the turnover battle, IMO.

Prediction...Kentucky 24 South Carolina 21...The Cats are 3-1 in their last four true road games. Unless they finish -2 or worse with turnover margin, I like their chances this weekend. I like UK in the trenches against SC on both sides. I like UK's running game potential. I think Bowden or Epps makes a big play. Cats move to 3-0!

Previous Picks
(2-0 SU, 0-1 ATS)
UK 34 Southern Miss 20 (UK -10.5)
UK 48 Eastern Kentucky 10 (no line)

GBB!!!

As always - a great read. Thanks for the effort.

 

[UKErik]

UNIVKY, I really thought Marshall won the battle up front with NC State (they certainly moved the ball pretty well, mostly in the first half). After two games, the Wolfpack only have four sacks. Not sure they're gonna wind up being one of the better d-lines in America.

GBB!!!

 

[pascat]

Terrific write-up!

Like it is with so mamy games, the team that runs the ball best will probably win. And this probably means the respective offensive lines are the key. If USC can't get it going on the ground, their passing game becomes a lot harder to execute. Same for Kentucky. All the success they've had in the passing game in recent years has come from being able to run the ball effectively. I like UK's running game better on paper, but without a home run option like Boom Williams, it risks being too one dimensional. So far this year, that has been the case, and not just because of the Wildcat. The Cats have run between the tackles to an almost ridiculous degree of predictability. It is therefore absolutely ESSENTIAL that Lynn Bowden become integrated into the offense. He needs the ball in space. Set up a reverse play. Give him a WR screen. Heck, mix him into an option scenario. Way too easy for USC to key on the thunderous Snell without the lightning option. And King is not that option.

And amidst the talk about Boom's absence, let's not forget about Jo Jo Kemp's versatility and toughness. He gave UK yet another look we've been unable to replace this year. There's just way too much on Snell right now. Too easy to prepare for us.

On the other side, I think Muschamp's biggest strstegy this week has been to motivate his offensive line to control the LOS better. In UK, he sees a good but not great defense that can be worn down. If USC gets 5 yard runs on first down, it's over. I don't think they have the horses to do it with ease, however.

I 100% agree with you about the 3rd and long issue. I just don't see UK winning with Johnson sitting back amidst a collapsing pocket. But that's why the offense needs more balance. You can't expect an OL to run two running plays up the middle, followed by pass blocking on 3rd and 8. Which brings me back to Bowden. He's gotta feature.

 

[KyCatFan]

With the way we have played so far, I just don't have any confidence that we will come out of Saturday with a win. While USC hasn't looked great they have still beaten 2 decent teams on the road. Compare that to our wins against weaker competition.

It will be tough to beat them for a 4th straight time. Especially with it being a road game for us. We already are down a few players and have a couple question marks with 2 more key players being injured. Unless we come out with a game plan that is far from the vanilla crap we have thrown out there the first two games and those banged up players can play and be effective, I don't think we have much of a shot at winning this game.

I say USC picks apart our secondary and burns us on a couple of returns for big gains and wins 31-24. Here's hoping for a reverse jinx.

 

[Dakota25]

It's pretty much the same two teams from the game last year but flip the fields. I think we lose a close one because it's at their place but you never know.

To keep a special season in contention UK needs to split South Carolina and Florida.

 

[UKErik]

KyCatFan, IMO, Missouri is far from a good football team. Don't forget, UK pounded them in Columbia in more dominant fashion than SC.

The NC State game wasn't on the road. It was at a neutral site (Charlotte). And SC was significantly out gained. Give them credit for creating TO's and hitting the big kick return.

UK has their issues. So does SC.

GBB!!!

 

[On-On-UK]

The offense has played it pretty close to the vest so far. I think we'll throw the kitchen sink at them Saturday. Hopefully, we'll see wrinkles in the "Wildcat" with Bowden behind center.

I hope the SC atmosphere gets our guys psyched up, rather than psyched out...

 

[K_TIME]

1. I think too many are picking into USC yardage stats in their two games...when you get return TDs team the and short field generated TOs it basically takes offensive possessions (and yardage) off the stat line and vice versa gives other team the ball quicker. Bottom line is USC won handly vs. two P5 teams (albeit maybe bottom level P5 teams).
2. If UK was running the ball and controlling possessions, I'd feel better about this game. But we've simply not done that and its' concerning. On other side of ball, we have our best defensive player that looks doubtful to play...that is a terrible ordeal if it comes to pass no matter how you slice it.
3. UK is probably going to pooch kick it....we've done that historically to good return men. So I don't see Deebo making TDs but his presence will probably have USC getting drives starting on the 35 yard line.
4. The game comes down to me is our secondry can't play so loose as Bentley, Hurst, Deebo and #89 will hit the short stuff and keep chains moving. I think Baity can handle his side....but Westry has been pretty lame last year and this year at throwing under him and taking shots over him.

I'll go USC 25 - UK 17.

 

[mrschwump]

1. I think too many are picking into USC yardage stats in their two games...when you get return TDs team the and short field generated TOs it basically takes offensive possessions (and yardage) off the stat line and vice versa gives other team the ball quicker. Bottom line is USC won handly vs. two P5 teams (albeit maybe bottom level P5 teams).
2. If UK was running the ball and controlling possessions, I'd feel better about this game. But we've simply not done that and its' concerning. On other side of ball, we have our best defensive player that looks doubtful to play...that is a terrible ordeal if it comes to pass no matter how you slice it.
3. UK is probably going to pooch kick it....we've done that historically to good return men. So I don't see Deebo making TDs but his presence will probably have USC getting drives starting on the 35 yard line.
4. The game comes down to me is our secondry can't play so loose as Bentley, Hurst, Deebo and #89 will hit the short stuff and keep chains moving. I think Baity can handle his side....but Westry has been pretty lame last year and this year at throwing under him and taking shots over him.

I'll go USC 25 - UK 17.

We're thinking along the same lines. SCAR has all the intangibles going their way. I'm majorly concerned about UK's WRs, they just haven't shown much playmaking ability. None have shown top end speed needed to win in the SEC. On D they're giving up too much in the passing game and still aren't getting even adequate pressure on the QB. Hope to see better play this week but for now....SCAR 28-20.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

1. I think too many are picking into USC yardage stats in their two games...when you get return TDs team the and short field generated TOs it basically takes offensive possessions (and yardage) off the stat line and vice versa gives other team the ball quicker. Bottom line is USC won handly vs. two P5 teams (albeit maybe bottom level P5 teams).
2. If UK was running the ball and controlling possessions, I'd feel better about this game. But we've simply not done that and its' concerning. On other side of ball, we have our best defensive player that looks doubtful to play...that is a terrible ordeal if it comes to pass no matter how you slice it.
3. UK is probably going to pooch kick it....we've done that historically to good return men. So I don't see Deebo making TDs but his presence will probably have USC getting drives starting on the 35 yard line.
4. The game comes down to me is our secondry can't play so loose as Bentley, Hurst, Deebo and #89 will hit the short stuff and keep chains moving. I think Baity can handle his side....but Westry has been pretty lame last year and this year at throwing under him and taking shots over him.

I'll go USC 25 - UK 17.

Samuel is they type WR that gives UK's CB issues, he is built like a RB and can get into and out of his cuts too quick for the tall guys. UK will have to use a combinaton of coverages against him. I don't think Carolina's run game is good enough to carry them. Goingi to nickle package as your base defense may be the best route to take and try to limit their passing yards. But that means the front 6 have to control the running game.

 

[cole854]

Based on the preparation and coaching, plus the team effort the last 3 games, there is no rhyme or reason to pick UK in this game, unless you are UKErik. SC is the only obvious pick in the game, but stranger things have happened and this could be a turnover fest.

 

[Dallas-Wild]

Based on the preparation and coaching, plus the team effort the last 3 games, there is no rhyme or reason to pick UK in this game, unless you are UKErik. SC is the only obvious pick in the game, but stranger things have happened and this could be a turnover fest.

Way to take a stand, and leave the door open just in case.

 

[RoosterBooster1]

It's pretty much the same two teams from the game last year but flip the fields. I think we lose a close one because it's at their place but you never know.

To keep a special season in contention UK needs to split South Carolina and Florida.

Actually, it's pretty much NOT the same two teams, especially on offense for both teams. KY is replacing Williams, Badet, Baker and two OL. Since the last game between these schools, Carolina is starting a new QB (Bentley), a new RB (Dowdle & Williams) , a new WR (Samuel) and 1 new OL

 

[Crankdatmustard]

One good thing for KY is so far through two games we have yet to come anywhere close to playing to our potential.

Hoping the extra reps being now game 3 and a sense of urgency entering conference play pushes us to a W

 

[bigblueinsanity]

Large cushion we give wrs drives me nuts. Give up 5-8 yard completions without even contesting it.

Just dont get it

 

[dorkmeister]

As most have stated, Stoops has been holding back till we got to real teams. Our O has been as vanilla as "The Ice" and as plain as "Jane". We all know we have the horses and playmakers to beat teams but he didn't want to give anything away. That is how a good card player plays.

I look for us to open up with a lot of passing and play action. Look for screens and using the TE a lot. Our O is going to look 100% different on Saturday than they have the other two games. A win is a win and that is all Coach wanted the first two games. Now it is time for him to unload.

UK:36
SC: 16

 

[sluggercatfan]

slugger, did you see something from South Carolina that gives you pause, or is it a lack of confidence in Kentucky?

GBB!!!

Not sold on UK after two dismal performances against non P5 schools...missing Boom, JoJo, Badet and Toth really bad...as everyone on here knows , I'm a big offensive guy and I don't think we can score enough to keep up.

 

[frost-1]

Nice write up UkErik. Much appreciated.

 

[GridCats]

The big issue with me is the Center. Need to have someone step up and direct the O line and stay in the game. And also to me is the weakest link in the chain.

 

[KyCatFan]

KyCatFan, IMO, Missouri is far from a good football team. Don't forget, UK pounded them in Columbia in more dominant fashion than SC.

The NC State game wasn't on the road. It was at a neutral site (Charlotte). And SC was significantly out gained. Give them credit for creating TO's and hitting the big kick return.

UK has their issues. So does SC.

GBB!!!

That's why I said decent and not good. Still better than the competition we've faced so far. I just think USC is about due with it being a home game for them. We just can't win against a good opponent with our offense looking poor, giving up huge plays on special teams, and getting picked apart by the short passing game. I don't think that will add up to a win. Hope I am wrong though. They better open the playbooks up past the first couple of pages for this game.

 

[Comebakatz3]

As most have stated, Stoops has been holding back till we got to real teams. Our O has been as vanilla as "The Ice" and as plain as "Jane". We all know we have the horses and playmakers to beat teams but he didn't want to give anything away. That is how a good card player plays.

I look for us to open up with a lot of passing and play action. Look for screens and using the TE a lot. Our O is going to look 100% different on Saturday than they have the other two games. A win is a win and that is all Coach wanted the first two games. Now it is time for him to unload.

UK:36
SC: 16

I don't get this argument. We lost to Southern Miss a year ago and we spent a chunk of the off season playing the tape in the training facility so that the players wouldn't/didn't forget that embarrassment. I don't think that you'd go in with a cruise and vanilla game plan if you lost to the team a year ago, and it makes even less sense to pump up the team only to have them run vanilla stuff.

Even if it was some vanilla playcalling, we probably should have at least been able to dominate on the ground, and we struggled there. That is pretty concerning. I am usually pretty positive and I am holding out hope, but the fact that we couldn't run against the past two teams (at least not well) is certainly a concern. We'll find out a lot about our team on Saturday though.

 

[Crankdatmustard]

Stallings should return healthy this week and get 100% of snaps at center. That is huge IMO

 

[Big_Blue_1018]

After the performances the last 2 weeks, I just don't see anyway UK wins this game. I feel, and I hope I'm wrong, but this could be a blowout. I think South Carolina wins 31-17

 

[mrschwump]

Large cushion we give wrs drives me nuts. Give up 5-8 yard completions without even contesting it.

Just dont get it

Yeah, the cushion drives me crazy too. Once saw Fred Tiller give a guy a 10 yard cushion....on the 5 yard line. Predictable result.

 

[Dakota25]

Actually, it's pretty much NOT the same two teams, especially on offense for both teams. KY is replacing Williams, Badet, Baker and two OL. Since the last game between these schools, Carolina is starting a new QB (Bentley), a new RB (Dowdle & Williams) , a new WR (Samuel) and 1 new OL

For the most part it is. Also UK is better than last year which is the main reason I'm baffled about these performances so far.

 

[Wvvrn]

Large cushion we give wrs drives me nuts. Give up 5-8 yard completions without even contesting it.

Just dont get it

I agree, it is kind of annoying. Samuel will burn us up with YAC if we let him keep getting easy catches. Unfortunately I think this type of coverage is something that Stoops will continue to employ, it seems to be one of his hallmarks. It's probably my least favorite thing about his defensive strategy and is a legitimate gripe that I've heard a lot.

I understand it if you have terrible corners and slow overall speed on D but I was really hoping we would go away from big cushions with a bit better depth and talent. We have experienced CBs that I think would do well jamming receivers at the LOS at least occasionally. We have very good pass rushers that will get to the QB if he holds the ball too long trying to go deep. Playing more physical coverage can throw timing off and force mistakes.

We allowed EKU QBs to get in a rhythm and they moved the ball pretty well. Bentley and the SC WRs will make us pay if we play so conservatively. Of course if you get burned it's probably going for a TD but it would be nice to at least try it early on with some aggressive blitzes. Nothing I've seen so far leads me to believe that we will though. We're gonna be counting on our guys to be fundamental tacklers and force some turnovers.

 

[sluggercatfan]

For the most part it is. Also UK is better than last year which is the main reason I'm baffled about these performances so far.

Please tell me who is replacing Toth, Boom, JoJo, and Badet to make us better than last year? The win over Otis is a thing of the past and I know that is what every body is hanging their hats on. Will be in Columbia Sat so hoping you are right

 

[LordEgg]

We need to unleash the defense early and create havoc.

 

[cat888]

GOOD writeup Erick.. UK WINS 30/27. The offense begin to roll when Stallings and Johnson came back in hopefull that continues.

 

[Dallas-Wild]

GOOD writeup Erick.. UK WINS 30/27. The offense begin to roll when Stallings and Johnson came back in hopefull that continues.

I'm going with UK 27-23

D gets 3 sacks and applies pressure entire game.

 

[Deeeefense]

I think SC will have opportunities in the passing game because of the cushion UK gives WR's. How ridiculous is the space UK's defense gives the opponent?

Erik, do you have any explanation for that?

UK is probably going to pooch kick it...

If the field has a favorable wind direction I think they try to kick it long with the wind, and pouch it against the wind. Ideally try to make an upback handle the ball.

 

[maysvilleky]

3 things you included which give me huge hesitation to pick UK in this one. 1...It's at SC...If they gain any momentum, the crowd will definitely be a factor. 2...Turnovers...So far UK has won the TO battle. SC has also done the same to a huge advantage. So I think whoever wins the TO battle wins this one. and 3...Jordan Jones...If he's out, I think UK becomes weaker in tackling in space.