Breaking down the Cats and Cocks

[UKWinsAgainYep]

November 21st, 2009. I'm sure most UK football diehards remember the game well. Randall Cobb led Kentucky to a 34-27 win down in Athens. The win pushed Kentucky to 7-4 and gave Rick Brooks his final big time win as UK head coach. Since that night, UK's road struggles have been severe. Kentucky has played 20 league road games since that victory at Georgia. They've lost all 20. The Cats head to Columbia this weekend hoping to break the half decade long losing streak. Like Kentucky, South Carolina had to sweat out their season opener. SC needed a 4th quarter touchdown and goal line stand to beat North Carolina. The Cats and Cocks each have plenty of question marks on both sides of the football. Neither defense looked anything close to dominant last week. Both offenses struggled at times. With so much uncertainty surrounding both teams (and all four units), just about anything could happen this weekend. For Kentucky, this is a really big opportunity. Not only could the Cats end that five year run of futility, but a win would give them tremendous momentum heading into the Florida game. It would also give Kentucky their 2nd straight win over South Carolina. The last time that happened; 1998-1999.

Line (5dimes): Kentucky +7.5

Series: South Carolina leads 17-8-1
Last Meeting: 2014 in Lexington: Kentucky 45 South Carolina 38
Last Meeting in Columbia (2013): South Carolina 35 Kentucky 28

TV: SEC Network (7:30 Eastern)

Kentucky offense vs. South Carolina defense: Advantage Kentucky
Week one was a mixed bag for both of these units. South Carolina allowed a boatload of total and rushing yardage, but made two game turning plays in the red zone (INT's in the endzone). Last season, South Carolina really struggled on the d-line. They looked a little better in the season opener, but that defense looks to have a ways to go. Kentucky's deep group of WR's matches up well with the South Carolina secondary. I think the most important thing in this matchup is Towles and his ability to throw accurately and recognize what SC is doing. There were times against ULL when the Cats failed to pick up a blitzer or didn't recognize an overload. Coach Stoops said ULL didn't play UK the way they expected, so it's fair to say Towles preparation wasn't what it needed to be. SC has a new DC, but the Cats have a game of tape to help prep. Against UNC, it almost looked like SC was using the infamous "bend but don't break" philosophy. UNC ran the football with a lot of success. Certainly, Kentucky has the horses at running back to do the same. Big plays will be tougher to come by (compared to the ULL game), however, so the redzone running game will be important. I think UK will have a little more room to run this week in between the 20's. In the pass game, Towles and Dawson will have to gameplan a lot of "underneath" stuff. Bottom line, I think this matchup will come down to the effectiveness of Towles. UK's o-line should be able to hold it's own, so Towles will have time to do his thing.

Kentucky defense vs. South Carolina offense: Advantage South Carolina
If I was ranking the four offensive and defensive units 1-4, these two would probably be 3-4. South Carolina's offense might be the weakest it's been in a decade, but they run a lot of read option. As UK fans know, that's been a very difficult thing for UK to stop (or even slow down). Against North Carolina, the Gamecock offense really struggled in the passing game, but they were effective enough running the football. In addition to a heavy dose of read option, South Carolina used the Wildcat (with Cooper running AND throwing the football). Cooper is one of the elite players in college football. How UK defends him will be interesting. South Carolina will move him all over the place, so a simple bracket (or double team) won't be the easiest thing to accomplish. Covering him man-to-man is next to impossible. QB Connor Mitch really struggled throwing the football against the Heels. Mitch is definitely a threat in the run game, however (44 yards against UNC). South Carolina doesn't have a RB that looks anything like Davis, but Wilds and Williams look like good players. Mitch and Wilds are both nursing injuries, but should play this weekend. I thought the SC o-line played pretty well against North Carolina. UK's d-line has Johnson back. That should help, but I still give SC the trenches edge. If Flannigan returns, that would be HUGE for run defense. South Carolina is really hurting at WR right now. Combine that with a young QB, and we'll probably see a run heavy offense this weekend. Bottom line, UK really needs to do two things. One, find Cooper and diminish his contributions as much as possible. Two, put eight in the box and slow the run game. Also, the Cats have to be prepared for a couple of end arounds and plenty of screen passes. Spurrier is one of the elite play callers in college football history. With this offense, he has to get creative.

Special Teams: Advantage Kentucky
I think Kentucky's return game will develop into one of the nations best. South Carolina didn't return many kicks against North Carolina (only one KR and no PR's), so it's hard to really determine how good their returners are. The one guy that did return a kick (Samuel) is nursing an injury. Both teams kickers missed a FG last weekend. I still have a ton of faith in MacGinnis (one of the best K's in college football, IMO).

Kentucky will win if...Patrick Towles has a good night in the redzone and the run defense is competent. I think UK will move the ball well between the 20's, but it's a new ballgame once you get into the redzone. Towles has to get UK into the right plays consistently. The run defense has been porous for years now. Assuming Flannigan returns (along with CJ Johnson), UK at least has a chance to get the job done.

South Carolina will win if...they run the football effectively and keep Kentucky in 3rd and long. UK's o-line will hold it's own against SC's d-front, but I have trouble having much faith in that group on plays that require 5-step drop type time. Offensively, Spurrier has to stick to the running game. Even on 3rd and 3 or 4, don't quit on it.

Most important thing for Kentucky...run defense. It's been the achilles heel of this program for as long as I can remember. It was poor last week. With (hopefully) two big time contributors returning, Kentucky has a chance to have some success. Specifically, they need to do a better job of creating plays that result in no gain or yardage loss. If they allow SC to stay on schedule, they'll be on the field for 80+ plays.

Prediction...Kentucky 34 South Carolina 31...UK has a better QB. IMO, UK has better RB's. UK is much deeper at WR. South Carolina doesn't have a dominant defense. South Carolina has a young QB and some injury issues at WR. Seriously, if UK can't win down there this year, they might never get it done. Cats by a field goal.

Previous Picks
Kentucky 55 Louisiana 10 (Kentucky 40 Louisiana 33)

GBB!!!

Another thing I think you missed. You mentioned UK should be able to run the ball. Did you watch our run blocking last game? What did you think? I thought it was suspect at best. We seem to be much better at pass blocking. I don't have much faith in our O-Line for running the ball against SC.

 

[TravellersGhost]

Again, I hope to eat crow on this, but I'm not liking what I'm seeing at QB. I really hope Barker has the "IT FACTOR" in big games. Woodson had it. Couch had it. Hartline showed up in some big games.

Granted, it is only based on one game, but I liked what Towles has to offer. He threw some well timed passes on deep balls. When combined with a solid running game, I think USC has a lot to deal with on the defensive side. Do we press and try to take away the running game and short passes or do we play soft and have our LB's drop giving space to your RBs. If Towles eliminates the mistakes (or even reduces them), I think he can be very effective.

 

[TravellersGhost]

Are you really taking away one guys best run and then comparing their yards per carry? Does that really make any sense?

Quite the opposite. I said Williams is good in space. On that one run, he had a bunch of space and took advantage of it (much like Shon Carson did for USC last week). But I think that Elijah Hood is the better back because of the tackles he can break. Hood is 6-0 220 and all of his runs required him to break tackles.

 

[UKErik]

UKWinsAgainYep, ULL stacked the box against UK. That's one reason we saw so many long passes from Towles early. They also did a good job of crowding the LOS.

Last season, UK ran for about 240 yards against SC, and that was WITH South Carolina stacking the box (especially late when UK went to the Wildcat). Last week, North Carolina ran the football extremely well. So in a nutshell, I don't see anything that makes me think UK won't be able to run the football this weekend.

UK's run defense and the performance of Towles in the passing game are the two most important things to focus on, IMO. Both could go either way. And when I say UK's defense could go either way, I don't mean they might come out and dominate. That won't happen. But they can do enough to hold South Carolina to four touchdowns and a field goal.

GBB!!!

 

[canebreak]

Their RB is hardly Mike Davis, and their QB is hardly Dylan Thompson, wouldn't you agree?

Agree, and that helps. But ULL didn't have those two either and they ran for 250 yards and 27 first downs. But you give reason to hope.

 

[UKWinsAgainYep]

UKWinsAgainYep, ULL stacked the box against UK. That's one reason we saw so many long passes from Towles early. They also did a good job of crowding the LOS.

Last season, UK ran for about 240 yards against SC, and that was WITH South Carolina stacking the box (especially late when UK went to the Wildcat). Last week, North Carolina ran the football extremely well. So in a nutshell, I don't see anything that makes me think UK won't be able to run the football this weekend.

UK's run defense and the performance of Towles in the passing game are the two most important things to focus on, IMO. Both could go either way. And when I say UK's defense could go either way, I don't mean they might come out and dominate. That won't happen. But they can do enough to hold South Carolina to four touchdowns and a field goal.

GBB!!!

I hear you, but I'm really interested to see if our O-Line can open holes against a SEC defense. If they do, I will be jumping for joy. I think we'll have better luck passing to our receivers than we will running the ball.

 

[Caveman Catfan]

We have won 13 of the last 15 against Kentucky. Last year was arguably the worst defense we have ever, and we still won 2 conference road games. Kentucky hasn't won on the road since 2009. A few years ago we went undefeated against SEC East. Since the conference went to divisional format in 1992, Kentucky has never beaten even 3 East opponents in the same season. And you say we are barely better than Kentucky and accuse US of being the delusional ones?

I am not saying we are better than USC, but not because of the history lesson.

 

[UKErik]

I don't think this UK o-line is anywhere near good enough to line up and move people consistently. They can be effective IF teams respect Towles and the passing game (i.e., if teams don't bring safeties way up like the Cajuns did). IMO, this isn't an o-line that's going to come anywhere close to dominating opposing defensive fronts.

GBB!!!

 

[Deeeefense]

In skimming through our roster I counted 29 (excluding double counts for those who went to prep or JC and then came to USC and excluding those who left or did not qualify).

I actually had a few more than that, but 29 out of an 85 scholarship roster is 34% that's a huge revolving door.

 

[Caveman Catfan]

Looking forward to Meadows showing what he can do. Big George had some frosh moments in that first game.

 

[TravellersGhost]

I actually had a few more than that, but 29 out of an 85 scholarship roster is 34% that's a huge revolving door.

So 16 out of 85 (I'm assuming all 16 are still there since most are a result of Stoops' improved recruiting) vs 29 out of 85.

 

[Rhavicc]

So 16 out of 85 (I'm assuming all 16 are still there since most are a result of Stoops' improved recruiting) vs 29 out of 85.

You have no idea how eager we were to lose some of those 16, with the exception of very few. The Joker days were bad days.

 

[TravellersGhost]

You have no idea how eager we were to lose some of those 16, with the exception of very few. The Joker days were bad days.

I'm sorry. I think we are talking about 2 different things. 29 of our 85 players were 4 stars coming out of high school. And 16 of UK's players were 4 stars coming out of high school (unless some have left since signing).

So 8 of USC's 4 stars either did not qualify or left campus.

 

[crazyqx83]

. . . . . which is about 5 yards short of Hood. We'll see how the two end up at the end of the season and then in the NFL draft in a couple years.

Take away his long also and it's 8.5 to 6.7. Hardly a landslide.

Plus it's odd that you are trying to defend your defense by pointing out that an inferior runner to boom racked up 11.5 ypc against it.

 

[TravellersGhost]

Actually, I'm saying the opposite. But, again, you knew that.

 

[crazyqx83]

Are you really taking away one guys best run and then comparing their yards per carry? Does that really make any sense?

It's embarrassing that they know less football then vandy fans.

 

[Rhavicc]

Actually, I'm saying the opposite. But, again, you knew that.

I'm still waiting for you to show me any category at all that Elijah Hood is superior to Boom Williams in.

Will also add, I think it's asinine to even attempt to penalize a RB for making long runs. Isn't that what all of them are trying to do?

 

[crazyqx83]

I don't think this UK o-line is anywhere near good enough to line up and move people consistently. They can be effective IF teams respect Towles and the passing game (i.e., if teams don't bring safeties way up like the Cajuns did). IMO, this isn't an o-line that's going to come anywhere close to dominating opposing defensive fronts.

GBB!!!

A bunch of teams win nowadays with inferior offensive linemen to their defensive counterparts. We have to get past this mentality that we have to push people around in the trenches to win football games. It's very unlikely we'll ever do that with any consistency.

 

[bigblueinsanity]

A bunch of teams win nowadays with inferior offensive linemen to their defensive counterparts. We have to get past this mentality that we have to push people around in the trenches to win football games. It's very unlikely we'll ever do that with any consistency.

Who wins without a good OL? That just doesnt happen. Sometimes, the schemes must change to better accommodate an OL, but they still need to be good at what they do or you just wont win.

 

[TravellersGhost]

I'm still waiting for you to show me any category at all that Elijah Hood is superior to Boom Williams in.

Will also add, I think it's asinine to even attempt to penalize a RB for making long runs. Isn't that what all of them are trying to do?

6'0 220 and matched Boom last year while hobbled by injuries. Let's chat when the season is over. I think UNC will surprise a few people, except those who watched Hood's recruiting videos.

 

[Caveman Catfan]

I'm still waiting for you to show me any category at all that Elijah Hood is superior to Boom Williams in.

Will also add, I think it's asinine to even attempt to penalize a RB for making long runs. Isn't that what all of them are trying to do?

Especially when he has had more long runs per carry than any other back in the SEC, I believe. This is not a unique occurrence.

 

[TravellersGhost]

Who wins without a good OL? That just doesnt happen. Sometimes, the schemes must change to better accommodate an OL, but they still need to be good at what they do or you just wont win.

I hate to agree with crazy (since he appears to serve his moniker well), but Clemson and other HUNH offenses have done quite well with small quick linemen. If your QB only needs 2 seconds and you can buy him an extra second or two everyone once in a while with deception, I think you can live with an average OL.

 

[TravellersGhost]

Especially when he has had more long runs per carry than any other back in the SEC, I believe. This is not a unique occurrence.

Really? The most number of long runs against the SEC is 1 run of 56 yards? No one else had more than 1 run of 56 yards last year? Otherwise, Williams did what against the SEC last year?

Oh, you're counting his stats against Ohio and UL-Monroe. Got it.

(Edit: With apologies, I left off the 75 yard run against SEC powerhouse ULL.)

 

[Rhavicc]

6'0 220 and matched Boom last year while hobbled by injuries. Let's chat when the season is over. I think UNC will surprise a few people, except those who watched Hood's recruiting videos.

Seriously, that's your argument for Elijah Hood being better than Boom? Height and weight?
Well hell, by that standard, Mikel Horton must be a better back than Elijah Hood, because he's 6'1 and 230! But wait, he doesn't even start for UK? Actually, Horton is Boom's backup. Can't imagine why, maybe it's because height and weight isn't a measurement of how good a RB is, yards and touchdowns are. He did not match Boom in any category, that's why we're having this discussion, and again, Boom was injured in the middle of the season as well.

 

[Rhavicc]

Really? The most number of long runs against the SEC is 1 run of 56 yards? No one else had more than 1 run of 56 yards last year? Otherwise, Williams did what against the SEC last year?

Oh, you're counting his stats against Ohio and UL-Monroe. Got it.

(Edit: With apologies, I left off the 75 yard run against SEC powerhouse ULL.)

And once again, I go back to the statistic that Boom was one of 3 RB's in all of college football to have 3 TD runs that went for 50 yards or more last season. The other two are Nick Chubb and Zeke Elliot, but I'm sure that's not any kind of measurement of a good running back. Got it.

 

[TravellersGhost]

Seriously, that's your argument for Elijah Hood being better than Boom?

My argument is that neither Boom nor Hood did anything of note in their FR years against good defenses. As such, I'll take the guy with the better pedigree, better size and greater potential.

 

[CatsFanGG24]

6'0 220 and matched Boom last year while hobbled by injuries. Let's chat when the season is over. I think UNC will surprise a few people, except those who watched Hood's recruiting videos.

You do know Boom was suspended a game and out for multiple games with a concussion right?

Truth is that Hood may take some 5-6 yard carries that Boom has and turn them into 9-12 yarders...the 30-40 yarders that Hood had vs USC would be TDs if Boom was carrying, he just has that speed.

They each have things they do well.

 

[TravellersGhost]

And once again, I go back to the statistic that Boom was one of 3 RB's in all of college football to have 3 TD runs that went for 50 yards or more last season. The other two are Nick Chubb and Zeke Elliot, but I'm sure that's not any kind of measurement of a good running back. Got it.

No, it isn't. I'm sure there are plenty of FCS and Pee Wee football players with similar stats. You seem to be missing part of the equation.

 

[TravellersGhost]

You do know Boom was suspended a game and out for multiple games with a concussion right?

Truth is that Hood may take some 5-6 yard carries that Boom has and turn them into 9-12 yarders...the 30-40 yarders that Hood had vs USC would be TDs if Boom was carrying, he just has that speed.

They each have things they do well.

I agree. I said earlier, if there is a hole then Boom has the speed to take it to the house. But against the top competition, there are not a lot of holes that big. I'd rather have the guy that will break the tackles to create his own holes. To each his own.

 

[Rhavicc]

I'm going to assume that Ghost wants to use size as a measurement of how good a RB is because it means that you're more likely to run people over. That said, we've all seen that Boom can break tackles and get into the endzone while he's in the red zone. I'll leave an example below.
Boom can certainly do it against terrific defenses. Before the UK game, Louisville only allowed 9 rushing touchdowns on the entire season, and had a top 3 rushing defense in the country. Boom goes for 127 in 18 carries with 2 touchdowns (which I'll leave below).
He's very much a red zone threat.

 

[Rhavicc]

I understand that you may have a preference in what kind of back you like more, but just because a running back doesn't have a certain physique does not mean that all bigger backs, or any bigger backs for that matter (depending on your RB), are better.

 

[Rhavicc]

I agree. I said earlier, if there is a hole then Boom has the speed to take it to the house. But against the top competition, there are not a lot of holes that big. I'd rather have the guy that will break the tackles to create his own holes. To each his own.

If he can do it against Florida (who you already know had an elite defense last season), Louisville (again, another elite defense), and Georgia (top competition), then I don't see why he can't do it anytime.
Meanwhile, Elijah Hood, until playing USCjr., has never had a 100 yard game. Having several games before his injury where he got 17 carries for 33 yards, or 9 carries for 23 yards against powerhouse run defense East Carolina, 8 for 43 against Liberty.
I'm not sure you have a single valid argue that actually suggests that Elijah Hood is a better RB.

 

[Rhavicc]

Finally, I want to add, Mississippi State may have been the best "bend but don't break" defense in the country last season. Played the best red zone defense in the country, but often let teams march down there. They struggled stopping UK's offense, because fast, explosive offenses have a knack for getting behind those "bend but don't break" defenses.
I'm certainly not convinced that USCjr. has the CB's to press on UK's receivers either, or play man-to-man on them for that matter. I'm just not sold on your defense that gave up a ton of yards. I'm not sold on our defense either, but the flip-side of that is South Carolina struggled to show anything that looked like a good offense at any point in the game.

 

[WildcatofNati]

We have won 13 of the last 15 against Kentucky. Last year was arguably the worst defense we have ever, and we still won 2 conference road games. Kentucky hasn't won on the road since 2009. A few years ago we went undefeated against SEC East. Since the conference went to divisional format in 1992, Kentucky has never beaten even 3 East opponents in the same season. And you say we are barely better than Kentucky and accuse US of being the delusional ones?

Within the past 15 years, your team has been considerably better than UK. Even during a five year stretch of success for UK, UK went 0-5 against South Carolina. However, throughout history, it's a lot closer. South Carolina doesn't have a stellar pre-Spurrier history, to say the least.

 

[THEusccocks]

Within the past 15 years, your team has been considerably better than UK. Even during a five year stretch of success for UK, UK went 0-5 against South Carolina. However, throughout history, it's a lot closer. South Carolina doesn't have a stellar pre-Spurrier history, to say the least.

No doubt about that! South Carolina had a very mediocre history, really up until the last 5 years. I think we have a chance to build on our recent success and become a more successful program than we have been traditionally, but as with every team what the future holds remains to be seen.

 

[Onomatopoeia]

FWIW ESPN says UK has a 28% of winning the game Saturday

 

[Caveman Catfan]

Really? The most number of long runs against the SEC is 1 run of 56 yards? No one else had more than 1 run of 56 yards last year? Otherwise, Williams did what against the SEC last year?

Oh, you're counting his stats against Ohio and UL-Monroe. Got it.

(Edit: With apologies, I left off the 75 yard run against SEC powerhouse ULL.)

Did you watch UGA? Do you know what RB had more runs over 25 yards than did Williams? I think you might need about five more edits before you get your silliness right.

 

[Caveman Catfan]

No, it isn't. I'm sure there are plenty of FCS and Pee Wee football players with similar stats. You seem to be missing part of the equation.

i think IQs drop when people put "ghost" in their screen names.

 

[tngamecock#]

You obviously didn't watch SC. They're defense is just as bad, in my opinion.

How do you figure? SC gave up 13 points to one of the top scoring offenses in 2014 (wh/ returned 10 starters). Points are all that matter (unless of course, you are a UNC fan who thinks running a fast paced offense which runs more plays than the other team is the most important thing). I dare say NC's offense is light years better than ULL, and SC's defense is better than ULL's. This game does not sit up well for KY but yes, KY could win cause SC has a long way to go to be called very good. But the season is young, and both teams still have high hopes................we'll know better about both teams at the end of Saturday night.

 

[TravellersGhost]

It is perfectly clear where the IQ's are lacking. But I have to give you credit for supporting "your guy". I think he'll be great in the CFL one day. His skill set is perfect for it.