Breaking down the Cats and Cocks
- Thread starter UKErik
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Kentucky has actually been very good in the Red Zone going back to last year. Converted on 15 of the last 16 RZ attempts I believe.
Re MacGinnis - recall he missed 2 or 3 kicks early in the season last year and then I can't recall him missing the rest of the season. Hopefully that trend will continue.
One more thing I would add about Towles. Several people have been critical of something called accuracy. But as Freddie Maggard pointed out Towles was just a fraction off from completing 3 or 4 of those missed downfield throws that would have resulted in TDs. Most of those throws were go routes from what I could see. With those types of throws the QB is basically throwing the ball to a spot on the field and the receiver runs under it. In essence it's a timing play. If the ball gets to the spot a fraction of a second late, the receiver has to adjust back to the ball, if the ball gets to the spot a fraction of a second early, it's overthrown.
So instead of an "accuracy" issue, I think it's more of a timing issue as the ball did go to where it was aimed most of the time, just not at the precise time it needed to be there. Maybe that's a distention without a difference but timing issues can be pretty easily corrected whereas accuracy not so much.
Our receivers were getting off press coverage and getting open consistently, to me that's a pretty good sign that although they will obviously be facing better coverage this week, there will be plenty of opportunities for Towles. I think he will be very focus this week and have a big game Saturday.
Watching both of these games I would say that South Carolina appears to be searching for an offensive identify. They had some success running the ball but could not put together any type of passing game or sustain many drives. Kentucky on the other hand looked like a polished machine for most of the first 3 quarters and then lost focus and appeared to be celebrating a victory before the game ended. I'm not sure there is really a lot of difference between the two opposing defenses. Granted both USC and UK stop units are not going to be confused with the Seattle Seahawks anytime soon, I think Kentucky should come out on top in a shootout.
Kentucky: 43
USC: 37
One more thing I would add about Towles. Several people have been critical of something called accuracy. But as Freddie Maggard pointed out Towles was just a fraction off from completing 3 or 4 of those missed downfield throws that would have resulted in TDs. Most of those throws were go routes from what I could see. With those types of throws the QB is basically throwing the ball to a spot on the field and the receiver runs under it. In essence it's a timing play. If the ball gets to the spot a fraction of a second late, the receiver has to adjust back to the ball, if the ball gets to the spot a fraction of a second early, it's overthrown.
So instead of an "accuracy" issue, I think it's more of a timing issue as the ball did go to where it was aimed most of the time, just not at the precise time it needed to be there. Maybe that's a distention without a difference but timing issues can be pretty easily corrected whereas accuracy not so much.
Our receivers were getting off press coverage and getting open consistently, to me that's a pretty good sign that although they will obviously be facing better coverage this week, there will be plenty of opportunities for Towles. I think he will be very focus this week and have a big game Saturday.
Watching both of these games I would say that South Carolina appears to be searching for an offensive identify. They had some success running the ball but could not put together any type of passing game or sustain many drives. Kentucky on the other hand looked like a polished machine for most of the first 3 quarters and then lost focus and appeared to be celebrating a victory before the game ended. I'm not sure there is really a lot of difference between the two opposing defenses. Granted both USC and UK stop units are not going to be confused with the Seattle Seahawks anytime soon, I think Kentucky should come out on top in a shootout.
Kentucky: 43
USC: 37
We got a starter on the Dline back and a backup oline for this game. We have a starting lber out injured and should play but is questionable. Starting OLB is out due to suspension.
A whole lot of our woes were because flannigan and hatch weren't playing and hopefully flannigan is 100% by Thursday. CJ will help on D line and we had 2 freshman lbers get out of position on a few of the long runs.
A whole lot of our woes were because flannigan and hatch weren't playing and hopefully flannigan is 100% by Thursday. CJ will help on D line and we had 2 freshman lbers get out of position on a few of the long runs.
Basically a road game my a**.
You could see, and easily hear the overwhelming South Carolina crowd over the North Carolina crowd.
Look, you all did good in the red zone. They made some stupid decisions in that part of the field though, and if you deny that, you're naive. They threw right in the numbers of Skai Moore in the end zone twice in that game. If they would have ran the ball more (which you all couldn't stop, and UK does have better RB's than North Carolina), then you all would have lost in what was virtually a home game based on the crowd.
Their RB is hardly Mike Davis, and their QB is hardly Dylan Thompson, wouldn't you agree?
Great breakdown as always Eric. I agree with almost everything and the final score.
People are complaining about last week but, we were about 2 catches away from blowing ULL's doors off. If we convert 2-3 more of the 3rd downs the game ends up being a 24 point blow out. Pat was off by inches a couple times and that is all it took for us to look not as sharp. We are now going to add 3 players back and 2 HUGE players on D. We will look 100% different this game.
We did what we needed to do. We won the game. Now we add more depth on the OL and on D. We go back and fix a couple mistakes and we are ready to roll.
I don't think USCjr can keep up with our Offense this year and I think our run D will be much better. Look for a huge game from our RBs and I think we will see a several plays to our TEs.
We have more talent than USCjr this year. We will win and I still think 8-4 is a very good possibility.
Thanks for all the time you put into these write ups. You never fail to get me pumped!!!!!!!
People are complaining about last week but, we were about 2 catches away from blowing ULL's doors off. If we convert 2-3 more of the 3rd downs the game ends up being a 24 point blow out. Pat was off by inches a couple times and that is all it took for us to look not as sharp. We are now going to add 3 players back and 2 HUGE players on D. We will look 100% different this game.
We did what we needed to do. We won the game. Now we add more depth on the OL and on D. We go back and fix a couple mistakes and we are ready to roll.
I don't think USCjr can keep up with our Offense this year and I think our run D will be much better. Look for a huge game from our RBs and I think we will see a several plays to our TEs.
We have more talent than USCjr this year. We will win and I still think 8-4 is a very good possibility.
Thanks for all the time you put into these write ups. You never fail to get me pumped!!!!!!!
Hi, Gamecock here. Pretty much agree with everything your guy said except running back and special teams. We have on our opinion the best kicking game ever. Look for Shon Carson to run back kickoffs in the absence of Smith. Pharoah Cooper isn't all conference at three positions for nothing and he returns punts. UNC was able to return no kickoffs because our guy kicked them ALL out of the end zone. Expect this game to be a close one with the 'Cocks winning because of the home field advantage. Williams Brice is a very hostile environment.
Welcome
Is that brace he's wearing on his knee just for protection or does he have an issue with the knee?
didn't look like it bothered him much in the game.
While we can debate talent development, the Rivals site has our two teams as follows for total stars from 2012 to 2015:
USC: 37 4 stars and 56 3 stars
UK: 16 4 stars and 72 3 stars
So based on pure talent, Rivals would have to have been wrong on 21 of our 4 star players and none of yours.
Just a few comments:
(1) Go back and look at the play selection in the red zone for UNC. They did run the ball multiple times on first and second down in the red zone, and we stopped them. Even the last drive they ran Logan and then the QB keeper before the sack and INT.
(2) I think Williams is good in space. But Elijah Hood, UNC's 5 star SO back, is going to be special.
(3) I don't think there is much point arguing home or away on neutral site games. Neither team woke up in their hometown, used their home facilities, etc. There is more to home/away than pure crowd noise.
It is a light brace that he elected to wear because of a knee strain early in fall camp. I get the impression that it is more for protecting his knee just in case anything were to happen.
Putting an awful lot of stock into stars still, eh?
You're debating which one is the better RB? Show me a category that Elijah Hood is better in.
Rushing:
Elijah Hood - 79 career carries, 397 yards (avg 5.0 ypc), 4 touchdowns (1 career game w/ 100 yd rushing)
Boom Williams - 84 career carries, 621 yards (avg 7.3 ypc), 6 touchdowns (4 career games w/ 100 yd rushing)
Receiving:
Elijah Hood - 2 career receptions, -2 yards, 0 touchdowns
Boom Williams - 17 career receptions, 162 yards, 1 touchdown
Kick Return:
Elijah Hood - 0 returns
Boom Williams - 19 returns, 511 yards, 0 touchdowns (Freshman All-American kick returner)
Also, will add, both are true sophomores.
So you're basing your assumption that "Williams is good, but Hood is special" on what again? Oh, right, stars. Although it's very clear who the better college player is.
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Actually, the comparison isn't even close. Hood spent last year injured in the first half of the season and then missed the second half of the season. So far this season, Williams has one nice run up the middle against the Sun Belt. Let's see where things end up in November.
And, yes, unless you have another way of measuring talent, Rivals stars have proven to be an accurate predictor of success. There are plenty of misses (in both directions) for the Rivals star system. But on the whole, I don't see any argument that Rivals could miss on 21 players for one team and none for another.
Of course, the stars don't tell who the better team is going to be. But when it comes to pure individual talent, they do provide a relative accurate view.
And, yes, unless you have another way of measuring talent, Rivals stars have proven to be an accurate predictor of success. There are plenty of misses (in both directions) for the Rivals star system. But on the whole, I don't see any argument that Rivals could miss on 21 players for one team and none for another.
Of course, the stars don't tell who the better team is going to be. But when it comes to pure individual talent, they do provide a relative accurate view.
I dont know if UNC is a bad D THIS year. Nobody knows yet. SC felt Chizik put a pretty good D on the field last Thursday. Maybe, maybe not. Maybe SC is just bad offensively. Way too early to say UNC is a bad D this year, and if we use last year's performance as the reason why any team's units are good or bad this year why would any team bust their a*s all off season to try and improve? I assume it is possible that UNC has gotten much better than they were last year. Same for KY, same for SC. And Mitch may be awful, but compare his first ever start stats to many other QB's, even some of the great ones and it wasn't all that bad. Ran for 44 yards, threw a TD and took some big hits that he came back from. Looked like he got better as the game wore on to me.
Agreed. Moreover, most OC's will start off the game with a few short and intermediate throws to get the QB in rhythm before throwing long. Dawson started Towles throwing long a lot to begin with.
Multiple analysts saying that UNC's D appears to be better this year under Chizik. They couldn't get any worse than last year. But it helps to have a national title winning DC to help put your players in a position to make plays.
As for Mitch, he started 0-5 (with several drops) and then went 5-6 for 75 yards and TD. Ultimately, he had no INTs and no fumbles. Game and clock management is all that can be expected at this point, but I will take it if he limits the turnovers.
As for Mitch, he started 0-5 (with several drops) and then went 5-6 for 75 yards and TD. Ultimately, he had no INTs and no fumbles. Game and clock management is all that can be expected at this point, but I will take it if he limits the turnovers.
They only have 5 carries difference, but that doesn't matter, does it? Doesn't matter that Boom WIlliams was also out for 2 games last season, while Hood was out for 5, doesn't matter that he ran for 127 yards in 18 carries against Louisville last year, or 10 carries for 100 yards against Georgia, or even 7 carries for 104 yards against UL-Monroe last year (I note that one because Nick Chubb had 16 carries for 120 yards against UL-Monroe in the last game).
The comparison is very close. You don't want to admit it, but that's alright. The numbers point to Boom being the better running back. They have a similar number of carries, so don't try that whole "but he was out for half a season". It's not like Boom had 3 times as many carries as Hood, he has 5 more carries on his career.
I'm absolutely sure that it doesn't matter that without Elijah Hood, UNC is 2-7 since he started playing for them, but when he's not playing in the games, they're 4-1 (with one of those wins coming over Georgia Tech). Big coincidence, isn't it?
If UK can slow down the read, we win. If we cant, we lose.
This is true, but Towles wasnt being asked to thread the needle between the cover 2. He had WRs WIDE OPEN for TDs and missed. We wont have that many opportunities in one contested game again. So he absolutely must convert on those for UK to be successful this season.
If Spurrier sticks to the run last year, no doubt in my mind you all win going away. I have no idea why he changed things up, but Im glad he did.
I think youre correct. Iirc, everyone was holding their breath on his big kick vs UF because hed been so spotty.
This is true, but Towles wasnt being asked to thread the needle between the cover 2. He had WRs WIDE OPEN for TDs and missed. We wont have that many opportunities in one contested game again. So he absolutely must convert on those for UK to be successful this season.
If Spurrier sticks to the run last year, no doubt in my mind you all win going away. I have no idea why he changed things up, but Im glad he did.
I think youre correct. Iirc, everyone was holding their breath on his big kick vs UF because hed been so spotty.
^A lot of us need to understand Stoops' defense. He's one of the "bend not break" types. Allowing the opponent to gain yds is a lesser of concerns. What is the most important is: a) not allowing TD's and b) forcing turnovers. He is willing to sacrifice yds in an attempt to achieve these 2 objectives.
Granted we have a way to go yet with the defense, but we need to understand that yielding yds to the opponent is not always a terrible thing.
Granted we have a way to go yet with the defense, but we need to understand that yielding yds to the opponent is not always a terrible thing.
I agree. We don't have a QB who can win a game on his own. The zone read eats up clock, allows our D to rest and puts pressure on UK's D late in the game. If UK stops it, then I don't think this game will be close.
As for Spurrier, he has no patience nor tolerance for passing game ineptitude. When told that we had nearly 400 yards of offense against UNC, he said that there was no way. He thought we had less than 200 yards. No coach. The passing game had less than 200 yards. Your RBs had 250 yards. Hopefully, he takes a look at our film from UNC the other night and against UK last year before drawing up his ball plays this week. If not, and if instead he reverts back to the air, it could be a long game for Carolina fans.
I think for the rest of the yr it's about stopping the run. If UK can at least be competent in that area I see an 8 win season. If not, 4-5 at best
UK's defense should play USC just like they played the Bonnafon-lead Cards last year. Beg them to beat UK through the air. Make Mitch throw the ball. Box up the run and put pressure on te passer.
I agree. That's the gameplan that UK should go with on defense. I don't think that USC has a very good passing QB on the roster, so maybe it could work out better for us. Need to make an individual plan for Cooper though, just like UK should have done with Parker last season.
Now go back to 2011 - 2014 and see how many of those stars are still left on your roster - you might be surprised it's nearly 40% gone.
In skimming through our roster I counted 29 (excluding double counts for those who went to prep or JC and then came to USC and excluding those who left or did not qualify).
Wow, you are just flat out dumb. Take away boom's 75 yard run... and he ran for 6.7 yards per carry.
In watching the USC game, I saw their D play a "bend and then have the QB inexplicably throw to a LB's chest"
Afraid Spurrier with stick with the run, which is a killer for us.
We are 0-20 the last four years on the road.
I've got the home team in a close one.
Afraid Spurrier with stick with the run, which is a killer for us.
We are 0-20 the last four years on the road.
I've got the home team in a close one.
We have won 13 of the last 15 against Kentucky. Last year was arguably the worst defense we have ever, and we still won 2 conference road games. Kentucky hasn't won on the road since 2009. A few years ago we went undefeated against SEC East. Since the conference went to divisional format in 1992, Kentucky has never beaten even 3 East opponents in the same season. And you say we are barely better than Kentucky and accuse US of being the delusional ones?
. . . . . which is about 5 yards short of Hood. We'll see how the two end up at the end of the season and then in the NFL draft in a couple years.
Back to Connor Mitch and his passing, Spurrier often goes vertical 15 to 20 yards downfield requiring a much better throw than other spread formation QB'S that toss high percentage short bubble screens or quick slants to fast WR'S and let them run for daylight. Mitch could be greatly aided with a better receiving corps. Add it up and our boy ain't so bad after all.
Unfortunately, that QB of ours you mention will probably be shaking from head to toe like he usually is in big games that I've watched. I have no confidence he will show up and lead this team to victory. I really DO hope I'm wrong, but I am very skeptical about Towles leading us to the promised land.
You look at his athletic ability. You look at him being a redshirt junior. And you would think, "we have the advantage". But I haven't seen a cool customer. Just watch the UL game last season when he blew it and got nervous and cannot see wide open receivers.
Again, I hope to eat crow on this, but I'm not liking what I'm seeing at QB. I really hope Barker has the "IT FACTOR" in big games. Woodson had it. Couch had it. Hartline showed up in some big games.
Are you really taking away one guys best run and then comparing their yards per carry? Does that really make any sense?
