ADVERTISEMENT

Breaking down the Cats and Cocks

UKErik

All-American
Gold Member
May 29, 2001
27,441
3,085
113
November 21st, 2009. I'm sure most UK football diehards remember the game well. Randall Cobb led Kentucky to a 34-27 win down in Athens. The win pushed Kentucky to 7-4 and gave Rick Brooks his final big time win as UK head coach. Since that night, UK's road struggles have been severe. Kentucky has played 20 league road games since that victory at Georgia. They've lost all 20. The Cats head to Columbia this weekend hoping to break the half decade long losing streak. Like Kentucky, South Carolina had to sweat out their season opener. SC needed a 4th quarter touchdown and goal line stand to beat North Carolina. The Cats and Cocks each have plenty of question marks on both sides of the football. Neither defense looked anything close to dominant last week. Both offenses struggled at times. With so much uncertainty surrounding both teams (and all four units), just about anything could happen this weekend. For Kentucky, this is a really big opportunity. Not only could the Cats end that five year run of futility, but a win would give them tremendous momentum heading into the Florida game. It would also give Kentucky their 2nd straight win over South Carolina. The last time that happened; 1998-1999.

Line (5dimes): Kentucky +7.5

Series: South Carolina leads 17-8-1
Last Meeting: 2014 in Lexington: Kentucky 45 South Carolina 38
Last Meeting in Columbia (2013): South Carolina 35 Kentucky 28

TV: SEC Network (7:30 Eastern)

Kentucky offense vs. South Carolina defense: Advantage Kentucky
Week one was a mixed bag for both of these units. South Carolina allowed a boatload of total and rushing yardage, but made two game turning plays in the red zone (INT's in the endzone). Last season, South Carolina really struggled on the d-line. They looked a little better in the season opener, but that defense looks to have a ways to go. Kentucky's deep group of WR's matches up well with the South Carolina secondary. I think the most important thing in this matchup is Towles and his ability to throw accurately and recognize what SC is doing. There were times against ULL when the Cats failed to pick up a blitzer or didn't recognize an overload. Coach Stoops said ULL didn't play UK the way they expected, so it's fair to say Towles preparation wasn't what it needed to be. SC has a new DC, but the Cats have a game of tape to help prep. Against UNC, it almost looked like SC was using the infamous "bend but don't break" philosophy. UNC ran the football with a lot of success. Certainly, Kentucky has the horses at running back to do the same. Big plays will be tougher to come by (compared to the ULL game), however, so the redzone running game will be important. I think UK will have a little more room to run this week in between the 20's. In the pass game, Towles and Dawson will have to gameplan a lot of "underneath" stuff. Bottom line, I think this matchup will come down to the effectiveness of Towles. UK's o-line should be able to hold it's own, so Towles will have time to do his thing.

Kentucky defense vs. South Carolina offense: Advantage South Carolina
If I was ranking the four offensive and defensive units 1-4, these two would probably be 3-4. South Carolina's offense might be the weakest it's been in a decade, but they run a lot of read option. As UK fans know, that's been a very difficult thing for UK to stop (or even slow down). Against North Carolina, the Gamecock offense really struggled in the passing game, but they were effective enough running the football. In addition to a heavy dose of read option, South Carolina used the Wildcat (with Cooper running AND throwing the football). Cooper is one of the elite players in college football. How UK defends him will be interesting. South Carolina will move him all over the place, so a simple bracket (or double team) won't be the easiest thing to accomplish. Covering him man-to-man is next to impossible. QB Connor Mitch really struggled throwing the football against the Heels. Mitch is definitely a threat in the run game, however (44 yards against UNC). South Carolina doesn't have a RB that looks anything like Davis, but Wilds and Williams look like good players. Mitch and Wilds are both nursing injuries, but should play this weekend. I thought the SC o-line played pretty well against North Carolina. UK's d-line has Johnson back. That should help, but I still give SC the trenches edge. If Flannigan returns, that would be HUGE for run defense. South Carolina is really hurting at WR right now. Combine that with a young QB, and we'll probably see a run heavy offense this weekend. Bottom line, UK really needs to do two things. One, find Cooper and diminish his contributions as much as possible. Two, put eight in the box and slow the run game. Also, the Cats have to be prepared for a couple of end arounds and plenty of screen passes. Spurrier is one of the elite play callers in college football history. With this offense, he has to get creative.

Special Teams: Advantage Kentucky
I think Kentucky's return game will develop into one of the nations best. South Carolina didn't return many kicks against North Carolina (only one KR and no PR's), so it's hard to really determine how good their returners are. The one guy that did return a kick (Samuel) is nursing an injury. Both teams kickers missed a FG last weekend. I still have a ton of faith in MacGinnis (one of the best K's in college football, IMO).

Kentucky will win if...Patrick Towles has a good night in the redzone and the run defense is competent. I think UK will move the ball well between the 20's, but it's a new ballgame once you get into the redzone. Towles has to get UK into the right plays consistently. The run defense has been porous for years now. Assuming Flannigan returns (along with CJ Johnson), UK at least has a chance to get the job done.

South Carolina will win if...they run the football effectively and keep Kentucky in 3rd and long. UK's o-line will hold it's own against SC's d-front, but I have trouble having much faith in that group on plays that require 5-step drop type time. Offensively, Spurrier has to stick to the running game. Even on 3rd and 3 or 4, don't quit on it.

Most important thing for Kentucky...run defense. It's been the achilles heel of this program for as long as I can remember. It was poor last week. With (hopefully) two big time contributors returning, Kentucky has a chance to have some success. Specifically, they need to do a better job of creating plays that result in no gain or yardage loss. If they allow SC to stay on schedule, they'll be on the field for 80+ plays.

Prediction...Kentucky 34 South Carolina 31...UK has a better QB. IMO, UK has better RB's. UK is much deeper at WR. South Carolina doesn't have a dominant defense. South Carolina has a young QB and some injury issues at WR. Seriously, if UK can't win down there this year, they might never get it done. Cats by a field goal.

Previous Picks
Kentucky 55 Louisiana 10 (Kentucky 40 Louisiana 33)

GBB!!!
 
Great job, Erik, really look forward to your breakdown every game. I expect a very close game with the breaks probably deciding the winner, I hope the right Towles shows up, it would make a tremendous difference, we showed the potential to be a very good team on offense, which is what a lot of us expected before the opener. Mixed results there, but the chances of being very good on offense probably went from probably to possibly the way the game played out. I think there is a great chance we bounce back and score a lot.
 
I so hope you're right Erik, but to be honest our run defense is such a huge weakness that I can't pick us over anyone who can run effectively. However, I think it's gonna be a close one and would have no problem giving UK the nod even in a neutral game. But USC at home, I gotta take them by a score.
 
UKErik must have missed the game Saturday, thus continuing to write from his heart instead of his head as he did most of last season.

If both teams bring their A game, SC wins by 17.
 
  • Like
Reactions: UKat1 and ukwazoo
If you can't stop the run you can't win in the SEC and UK showed last week they still can't stop the run. Essentially no improvement from last year when UK gave up 250+ rush/yds 6 times, 300+ twice. SCAR 31-23.
Very few teams can stop the run. We need to limit the run. Had the offense sustained drives last week then the defense wouldn't have been on the field so long. I think we will see a better job on both sides this week. Enough to win? We will see.
 
What if our qb does do his thing? That's what gives me nightmares. I'm hoping he doesn't, we move the chains and get the defense off the field.
 
I keep reading posts, like the OP's, that the SC D is bad. It is far from bad. That game vs. UNC was played in Charlotte, basically a road game, against a UNC offense that returned 10 starters and averaged over 36 ppg last year. SC held the heels to 13 points. Zero in second half. Anyway you want to spin that it comes out the same, solid effort vs. a very good offense. You cannot compare that to giving up 33 at home to ULL.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Bigbluediddy63
I keep reading posts, like the OP's, that the SC D is bad. It is far from bad. That game vs. UNC was played in Charlotte, basically a road game, against a UNC offense that returned 10 starters and averaged over 36 ppg last year. SC held the heels to 13 points. Zero in second half. Anyway you want to spin that it comes out the same, solid effort vs. a very good offense. You cannot compare that to giving up 33 at home to ULL.

SC's was the epitome of a bend, but not break D in that game. UNC could have easily had 20-27 points with their two endzone INTs. Give credit to SC's D as they made key stops, but the points allowed was a bit deceiving. I agree with you it does not compare with giving up 33 to ULL, but I stand by my points as well.

As for the prediction, seems low to me. I think SC is going to put up more than 31 so I'd say more of a 41-38 UK win or 45-42 UK win if UK is going to win this game.
 
I think offense all depends on towles. Other than the Florida game, he has been pretty awful on the road. He had a ton of yards and 3 td's against florida, but other than that, he hasn't been great. I think our skill position players are good enough to win sec games and our play caller is good enough to minimize our deficiencies on the o-line.

On defense, as usual, it's a matter of stopping the run. North Carolina is not a good defensive team. They gave up 90 more yards per game and 7 more points per game last year than us. I think we can all agree that we weren't a very good defensive team last year. They gave up nearly 500 yards to usc last Thursday and still were within 3 points of winning. Connor mitch is awful. He makes PT look like a Heisman frontrunner.

Unlike most people, I think this past weekend was very good for our team. We were playing decent (yet lackluster) football against a very well coached team and hopefully the end of the game will help us refocus. I'm not going to predict a win against usc, but they are an extremely mediocre football team. There is a reason that the line opened at +9 points and has sharply fallen to +7. Any other team in the sec with our talent would be strongly considered as a Victor this weekend. All that being said, I've seen many mediocre teams beat us handily on the road in the sec.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Deeeefense
I keep reading posts, like the OP's, that the SC D is bad. It is far from bad. That game vs. UNC was played in Charlotte, basically a road game, against a UNC offense that returned 10 starters and averaged over 36 ppg last year. SC held the heels to 13 points. Zero in second half. Anyway you want to spin that it comes out the same, solid effort vs. a very good offense. You cannot compare that to giving up 33 at home to ULL.
Same could be said on the flip side. You all only mustered 17 points on a team that lost 6 starters from a squad that allowed 497 yards and 38 points per game last year. Your offense honestly looks completely anemic and I wouldn't be surprised if SOS abandons trying to use a traditional qb after a series or 2 because point blank, Connor mitch is awful. He may try to jojo Kemp us to death as payback, so we'll have to see if it works.

On the flip side, UNC had 440 yards in 63 plays. That's a first down every 2 plays. You all had some key turnovers, but nothing at all that indicates that you can stop even a halfway competent offense.
 
I keep reading posts, like the OP's, that the SC D is bad. It is far from bad. That game vs. UNC was played in Charlotte, basically a road game, against a UNC offense that returned 10 starters and averaged over 36 ppg last year. SC held the heels to 13 points. Zero in second half. Anyway you want to spin that it comes out the same, solid effort vs. a very good offense. You cannot compare that to giving up 33 at home to ULL.

That wasn't a road game. It was in Charlotte, and you guys had more fans than did UNC. UNC ran up and down the field all night and then imploded in the red zone (or thereabouts). Give credit to USCe for bending but not breaking, but that was not good defense.
 
UKErik, very good breakdown of the upcoming game. Not much there for me to disagree with as a Gamecock fan (other than perhaps the predicted outcome). I can offer up a few thoughts to add to the above:

(1) Spurrier's quote on Kentucky: “Kentucky looked awfully good the first half of that game. I don’t know if you realize, they were up about 33-10 going into that fourth quarter and then all of a sudden, Louisiana Lafayette put some quick little running back in there, he popped two runs and went for a touchdown and all of a sudden, they tied the game up. Kentucky marched down, scored a touchdown to win the game. Kentucky looks awfully good. Their athletes are fast and quick, quarterback has played a bunch and they’re a real solid team. (They’re) a good team.”

(2) This is perhaps the best special teams unit I've seen from USC in quite a while. Every kickoff (different kicker than our FG kicker) was either in the back of the end zone or through it. Our punter (a transfer) averaged over 46 yards a punt, including a 60 yard punt and several that were downed inside the 20 (as well as a fake punt that went for a first down). Our missed FG was from 56 yards, and our FG kicker was good on his other kick. He also was on a number of preseason watch lists. While we don't have much in the way of returns, I'm hoping we don't offer our opponents the opportunity to flip the field on their returns.

(3) We really have no idea what we have up front on defense. We went 3 deep at every position on the DL against UNC, including multiple back-ups coming in on UNC's first and second drive. The end result was 4 sacks and 3 INTs against a HUNH offense that returned 10 starters. We only had about a dozen INTS all of last year. So, while we are nowhere near a good defense right now, we did see some shades of USC defenses past.

(4) Side note: UNC's TD was actually after a stop on 3rd and long, but we had a player late coming off the field so after the flag UNC converted and scored. Bad luck on our end (and likely a bunch of running in practice for the slow DL). But something that can be corrected.
 
Last edited:
SC is going to run the ball on offense and blitz the heck out of PT on defense. If we play on the LOS anything like we did Sat I cannot imagine a scenario for a win.
 
That wasn't a road game. It was in Charlotte, and you guys had more fans than did UNC. UNC ran up and down the field all night and then imploded in the red zone (or thereabouts). Give credit to USCe for bending but not breaking, but that was not good defense.

If you watch the game again, you will see our D between the 20's was essentially a single deep safety playing a good 20 yards off the line. Then we switched into a true Tampa 2 around the 20 . . . which then allowed us to have our safety jump a route and the MLB to come up with 2 INTS.

I fully admit that we gave up a ton of yards between the 20's. But playing with 10 men on defense and the 11th playing center field will do that to you. I think it was a smart move with a new DC trying to figure out what he has on his side of the field against a team that had the preseason ACC's top OL and 10 returning starters.

Does it mean we have a good defense? No. It simply means we have a smart DC and a defense that showed improvement in our first game over last year. We won't know how much improvement has been made for another 2 to 3 weeks.
 
That wasn't a road game. It was in Charlotte, and you guys had more fans than did UNC. UNC ran up and down the field all night and then imploded in the red zone (or thereabouts). Give credit to USCe for bending but not breaking, but that was not good defense.
Exactly. USC fans are hilarious. Charlotte borders south Carolina and is an hour closer to Columbia than chapel hill. Not to mention that UNC fans don't care at all about football and yet they would have you believe they were playing in the big house or death valley.

Delusional bunch. Alabama football mentality, barely better than Kentucky historically.
 
SC is going to run the ball on offense and blitz the heck out of PT on defense. If we play on the LOS anything like we did Sat I cannot imagine a scenario for a win.
Which will result in a couple of boom delayed draw 65 yard runs and 3 or 4 throws over the top. Then we wait and see if usc can muster more than the 17 points they got against the 5th worst defense in all of college football last week.
 
Going to be a shootout. SC's defense looked almost as bad as ours. I think we pull off a close one. I'll call it 42-38 UK.
 
i love UK, and have high hopes, but i just don't see this one unless A) we do something drastically different against the run, and B) our QB is on his deep game enough to keep the defense honest.

Towles has been catching a lot of flak for Saturday night because of the deep passes he didn't make. I don't think people realize how tough those are to complete, qb's don't get those 60%+ completions or 150+ qb ratings throwing the ball 40 yards downfield. Instead of praising him for completing 2-3 of them he is catching heat for the 2-3 he missed. No one is wanting to give LaL any credit for the adjustment they made, to make those throws tougher to complete, it's just Towles overthrew them. Some are even wanting to see a new qb, he could be an upgrade, but he could also be a downgrade, no one has seen him in a college game including the coaching staff. UK has a pretty good starting qb, his team put 40 on the board, its not his fault the other team put 33 on the board. I wish UGA had a qb like him.
 
I was at the game. While the lower bowl was slightly skewed towards the Gamecocks, I'm assuming the upper deck had a much larger percentage of Gamecocks. Either way, the UNC fans were not a very loud bunch. Must've had too little wine and too much cheese before the game.
 
  • Like
Reactions: JasonRDunn
Towles has been catching a lot of flak for Saturday night because of the deep passes he didn't make. I don't think people realize how tough those are to complete, qb's don't get those 60%+ completions or 150+ qb ratings throwing the ball 40 yards downfield. Instead of praising him for completing 2-3 of them he is catching heat for the 2-3 he missed. No one is wanting to give LaL any credit for the adjustment they made, to make those throws tougher to complete, it's just Towles overthrew them. Some are even wanting to see a new qb, he could be an upgrade, but he could also be a downgrade, no one has seen him in a college game including the coaching staff. UK has a pretty good starting qb, his team put 40 on the board, its not his fault the other team put 33 on the board. I wish UGA had a qb like him.

Very, very few college quarterbacks complete 75%+ of their passes over 30 yards. It's an insane thing to expect. The only thing Towles could have done better is to complete more of the midrange and short passes to extend drives and keep our defense off the field - but there were barely any of those called, so it's not really what we saw.
 
Towles has been catching a lot of flak for Saturday night because of the deep passes he didn't make. I don't think people realize how tough those are to complete, qb's don't get those 60%+ completions or 150+ qb ratings throwing the ball 40 yards downfield. Instead of praising him for completing 2-3 of them he is catching heat for the 2-3 he missed. No one is wanting to give LaL any credit for the adjustment they made, to make those throws tougher to complete, it's just Towles overthrew them. Some are even wanting to see a new qb, he could be an upgrade, but he could also be a downgrade, no one has seen him in a college game including the coaching staff. UK has a pretty good starting qb, his team put 40 on the board, its not his fault the other team put 33 on the board. I wish UGA had a qb like him.
My problem is less that he didn't complete a lot of passes, but rather that he seemed only comfortable throwing deep balls that are inherently not as likely to be completed. It's kind of become a recurring theme to Towles in that he never shows a ton of poise in the pocket when forced to make quick decisions. If he doesn't chuck it long, it seems that he is usually only willing to dump it down to a RB.
 
While I'm no football genius, I did stay at a . . . Actually, I watched USC's game once in person and twice on TV. I have also watched UK's game twice on TV.

I was impressed with the Kentucky OL on that first play. I was also impressed with their ability to give Towles enough time to throw deep. If Kentucky can run more effectively, hit just a couple intermediate passes or swing routes and continue to hit 40-50% of the deep balls, it could be a long night for USC.

However, if Kentucky follows UNC's game plan of moving between the 20's quickly but getting bogged down in the RZ, it plays into USC's hands if we continue our game plan of run the ball for 5 to 6 yards per play and use up as much clock as possible. We ended the game with 12 more minutes on the field than UNC. It exposed UNC's depth on defense as the game went on . . . hence, the 0 points in the second half.

I don't know much about Kentucky's depth on defense. Any thoughts?
 
  • Like
Reactions: UKat1
While I'm no football genius, I did stay at a . . . Actually, I watched USC's game once in person and twice on TV. I have also watched UK's game twice on TV.

I was impressed with the Kentucky OL on that first play. I was also impressed with their ability to give Towles enough time to throw deep. If Kentucky can run more effectively, hit just a couple intermediate passes or swing routes and continue to hit 40-50% of the deep balls, it could be a long night for USC.

However, if Kentucky follows UNC's game plan of moving between the 20's quickly but getting bogged down in the RZ, it plays into USC's hands if we continue our game plan of run the ball for 5 to 6 yards per play and use up as much clock as possible. We ended the game with 12 more minutes on the field than UNC. It exposed UNC's depth on defense as the game went on . . . hence, the 0 points in the second half.

I don't know much about Kentucky's depth on defense. Any thoughts?

Our defensive depth is not great.

If you play 1 deep on defense against us for any stretch, you're liable to give up points on 40 yard plays, so your red zone defense might be irrelevant. Boom and our receivers aren't to be underestimated in space.

Plus, we still have Jojo, so we might just score 45 points on a read option gut, repeat.
 
Good breakdown Erik.

Look, was at the game and know that UK didn't play well at all in the last half of the 3rd quarter and the 4th quarter. But they played really well the other half+ of the game. Go rewatch the game and pay attention to how the defense played then. If that defense shows up for a full game we will win some games we aren't supposed to. Getting Johnson and Flannigan back will be a huge help. We played some really young guys at LB against ULL and their inexperience showed at times. But the talent is there, just needs to be coached up.

IMO the Cats are much closer to the team we saw in the 1st half. If Towles makes just 3 more on the money throws we're having a completely different discussion this week. So it is what it is but I believe the Cats can win this game.

Cats 38 Cocks 28
 
Stop the run is obviously the key. If we can't slow it down we have little to no chance. There are some things/mental errors that can be fixed from last week and getting Flannigan/Johnson back will help. However, their OL is huge and it's likely they try to cram it down our throats all night long. Cooper is very dangerous and plays a Randall Cobb type roll for them. He is perfectly capable of going off and taking over the game as well.

Stop the run and sustain drives to keep our defense off the field and we can win.
 
Stop the run is obviously the key. If we can't slow it down we have little to no chance. There are some things/mental errors that can be fixed from last week and getting Flannigan/Johnson back will help. However, their OL is huge and it's likely they try to cram it down our throats all night long. Cooper is very dangerous and plays a Randall Cobb type roll for them. He is perfectly capable of going off and taking over the game as well.

Stop the run and sustain drives to keep our defense off the field and we can win.
Considering how much South Carolina gashed us last season in the run game and the fact that their going away from it greatly contributed to UK winning that game, I see them attempting to go the entire game without throwing a forward pass. (exaggerating, but just a little)

If UK doesn't control the ball on offense and keep the defense off of the field, the Gamecocks will run for damned near 400 yds on this defense.
 
Thanks UKErik! This is a good breakdown. I am looking forward to Flannigan and Johnson adding depth and help to the defensive front. We really need a good defensive game. Go Cats!!
 
Our defensive depth is not great.

If you play 1 deep on defense against us for any stretch, you're liable to give up points on 40 yard plays, so your red zone defense might be irrelevant. Boom and our receivers aren't to be underestimated in space.

Plus, we still have Jojo, so we might just score 45 points on a read option gut, repeat.

Isn't the point of the 1 deep to prevent those big plays to in turn force the shorter field in the redzone?

I agree that UK had several explosive plays against ULL. I think you have some really dynamic playmakers. But as a USC fan who had to sit through our worst defense in the last twenty years last year, I can also say that for the first time since Ellis Johnson was our DC I saw our defensive players playing their assignments. The talent on our defensive 2 deep is there and it appears that they have bought into the new DC's plans. We'll see on Saturday if that is enough to contain those dynamic players.
 
On offense, I think one of USC's biggest concerns is whether Spurrier decides to go away from the run. Last year, I think we attempted 3 passes (none more than 5 yards) on the first two drives--both of which were long TD drives. Then, inexplicably, Spurrier decides to start launching the ball all over the field. It resulted in multiple 3 and outs and 3 INTs.

This year, Spurrier may have no choice but to be patient with the passing game until the game slows down for Mitch. It may actually work in our favor that we are starting SO QB on his second start rather than the single season passing yardage RSSR who threw those 3 INTs last year.

If the D plays to its assignment, I still think UK will score 16 to 24 points. But if Spurrier sticks to the ground game, I think USC can match those scores with the anticipation of a late score to win.
 
It's kind of become a recurring theme to Towles in that he never shows a ton of poise in the pocket when forced to make quick decisions.

Last year he tucked it and ran if the first option was not there, this year he is being asked to make progressions. Let's hope he gets more comfortable doing that.
 
Very few teams can stop the run. We need to limit the run. Had the offense sustained drives last week then the defense wouldn't have been on the field so long. I think we will see a better job on both sides this week. Enough to win? We will see.

OK.....UK does a poor job of limiting the run too.
 
I don't know much about Kentucky's depth on defense. Any thoughts?

assuming we get a couple of wounded worriers back this week were are a legit 2 deep at every spot, we can even go 3 deep at a couple of spots. Definitely deeper than we have been in many years IMO, but some of those players are redshirts - very talented but not much experience.
 
Very simple formula for KY to win this game. Patrick plays well and KY wins. Defense is going to give up yards and points. I am not convinced SC has enough offense to beat KY (if Pat plays well). If the offense is clicking, there is no way SC is good enough on defense to stop them.

Columbia is a tough place to play. KY needs to get on them early to take the crowd out and allow these young guys to settle into the game.

I'll go out on a limb and say Patrick plays well. KY wins 37-31 and sets up an epic showdown with FL.
 
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT