Everyone knows I am a fan of Mark Stoops and his coaching staff. This team is 4-2, still theoretically with an opportunity to finish 11-2 or 4-8. The actual outcome will be somewhere in the middle. At the halfway point of the season, we have learned a lot about this team and some of the coaches that we did not anticipate a month ago. If some people are tired of rehashing the issues, I get that.
Injuries
Injuries are killing this team. They aren't the only problem, but they are a big one. Vito Tisdale, Jalen Geiger, Jacquez Jones, Josh Jones, and Ramon Jefferson are missing. Jacques Jones was our best defensive player and the leader of our defense. JJ Weaver, Jeremy Flax, and Will Levis have already missed SEC games. Injuries are not an excuse for losing. When an SEC roster is constructed, quality depth must be built because injuries are inevitable. But when you look at what has happened in the first half of the season, injuries have to be considered or else the picture and conclusions are incomplete. One thing we know for sure is that Levis has already taken a beating. He is the SEC's most-sacked QB, and he couldn't play at all last week.
Offense
The receivers have been a positive surprise. Many expected Barion Brown and Dane Key to be good, but the absence of Wandale and Ali was expected to be a bigger problem than it has been. The TEs have dropped a couple of passes, but missed blocking assignments have been a bigger issue. Chris Rodriguez missed 4 games, but he is back. The rest of the RB room has performed more or less as expected. Levis' injuries and the underperformance of the OL have been the biggest issues for our offense. It will be weeks before Levis is painfree, and the injury to his nonthrowing hand will make him more vulnerable to fumble. Meanwhile, Levis will continue to take hard hits because our OL isn't getting it done.
Many reasons have been given for the performance problems of the OL. This needs to be said, because I don't know if everyone is aware. At various times, Horsey and Cox have received all conference mention in various forums. Both are playing new positions, but they are good, hard working players. Flax and Burton were 4 star prospects when they signed with UK, and Manning was a 4 star when he signed with Auburn. Backup LT Kiyaunta Godwin was a borderline 5 star. Backups John Young and Deondre Buford were also highly regarded when they signed. They are big and talented. Part of the problem is that some of them have been moved around, and many of them have not had much playing experience. But, given the talent, that does not quite explain the results. Part of the problem has been missed blocking assignments and inopportune illegal procedure penalties. These are coaching and prep issues. So I will just say it. Zach Yenser may have been a reach hire. He was appealing because he is a Kentucky native with NFL coaching experience who knew John Schlarman. So far, Yenser hasn't been able to get his OL ready for the big moments, and it has hurt our team. It is still a small sample. Maybe the good chemistry they need will develop in October. Maybe Chris Rodriguez's return will end up changing this narrative. Maybe things will turn around for the OL in the second half of the season. But if performance doesn't improve, Stoops will be under pressure to make a change at the OL coaching position. The BBW cannot go on like this. If it does, our offense simply cannot be what it has been in prior seasons, and future recruitment of young offensive linemen will not go well. The OL's regression is cancelling a very important selling point for the program. Meanwhile, you have to wonder what Goodwin is thinking.
This brings us around to Rich Scangarello. UK currently ranks #13 in the SEC in total offense and dead last in sacks allowed. This simply cannot continue. There have been some moments, such as the opening double reverse call at Ole Miss, when I thought Scangarello might be in over his head. For the most part, play calling has been better than execution. I don't directly blame Sangarello for the bad play of his OL. Yet, anyway. But he is the OC, and it is ultimately his OL. I don't blame Scangarello for the drops or fumbles, but ultimately it is his offense. Meanwhile, a future NFL QB is taking a real beating and has already missed an important game. At the end of the day, we have offensive talent but we aren't putting points on the board. Scangarello has a multiyear contract, so his leash will be longer than Yenser's. But the offense will have to play better than it has played so far, or else a change could become unavoidable. Stoops' hand could be forced, but Scangarello still has some time to right the ship. The good news is that Levis is feeling better and Rodriguez is hungry. My guess is that Scangarello will be back in 2023, but I am getting more worried by the week about how much this floundering offense will appeal to recruits and potential transfers.
Defense
UK is currently ranked #3 in the SEC in total defense, #4 in opponent 3rd down conversions, and #5 in opponent red zone conversions. This is true despite injuries to Jacques Jones and several other key defensive players. So it is difficult to place much blame on Brad White or point fingers at the defensive coaches. Still, UK is #12 in the SEC in sacks and #11 in fumbles recovered, so there is still some room for some improvement.
Special teams
Recently, Stoops said it himself. In his view, dedicating a coach fully to special teams is difficult because there are so many other coaching responsibilities on the football team. He has been reluctant to hire a specialist for special teams. In some years, Stoops has gotten away with this philosophy. This particular year, it has hurt us. A UK punt has been blocked, and a number of placement kicks have been blown because of bad snaps, blocked kicks, or bad kicks. There have been some blown blocking assignments. These mistakes have been costly for the team and have played major roles in both losses. It has been said before. We need a dedicated special teams coordinator who can turn our special teams into real SEC weapons.
Recruiting
This deserves a thread of its own, which is why we already have threads for our 2023 and 2024 recruiting classes. I can just say that Stoops did a good job getting excellent out of state prospects like Stuart, Anglin, Brown, Porter, Godfrey, and Ramsey committed before the season began. Now he must hold onto them. If he can get Ja'Keem Jackson to flip from FL, that would be great. After all, we beat FL a couple of weeks ago, and Jackson's brother is a member of UK's track team. But I am concerned about the possibility of decommitments. It concerns me that acquiring players out of the transfer portal will be tougher this coming offseason. I am also getting concerned that we could take a couple of hits with outbound transfers unless Stoops can rekindle more juice inside UK's locker room in the next two months. At the end of the day, all of these guys are free agents. But I learned long ago not to underestimate Stoops and Marrow.
Remaining schedule
MS St In Lex
Bye
TN in Knoxville
MO in Columbia
Vandy in Lex
GA in Lex
UL in Lex
On paper, it helps that four of our last six games will be played at Kroger Field. It ought to help us to get a bye week before the trip to Knoxville.
But the dominant problems on our team, the inadequate play of our OL and the health of our QB, will trump the home field advantage unless things get better fast.
We play to win. There is still an opportunity to finish 11-2, and that's what I want to see. Do I expect it? If I say yes, I am not being honest. Besides Stoops himself, a heavy burden rests on Scangarello's and Yenser's shoulders now. Our final six games will depend heavily on rapid improvement of our OL. That is a difficult fix under the circumstances unless Goodwin takes a big step forward.
Another factor is the locker room. Recently, JJ Weaver said that he is not satisfied with the "vibe" on UK's sideline. Weaver explained that some of the less experienced players need mentoring from older players. I take Weaver's comment seriously. The two recent losses have been almost careless. If the mistakes continue like this much longer, it would not be difficult to worry that the coaches could lose the team. That could have ramifications for the second half of the schedule and for the offseason. Surely Stoops understands this and will take necessary measures. As I said, I never underestimate him.
I hope to be wrong, but I do not see UK beating MS St, TN, or GA. I honestly just don't see it. If I say otherwise, I am not being truthful. MS St is a complete team, and we are not. MS St's improved pass rush is a big worry. TN and GA could be the two best teams in the SEC right now, but we will find out soon. I am not trying to bum anyone out. Just calling it the way I see it at the midpoint of the season. I am seeing 7-5, then a tougher time attracting transfers this time. Stoops is a quality coach. He isn't going anywhere, and he will get things fixed. This is far from being his biggest challenge at UK, but it is the biggest challenge he has faced in the last several years. It may take a year or two to reconstruct UK's recruiting juice.
Injuries
Injuries are killing this team. They aren't the only problem, but they are a big one. Vito Tisdale, Jalen Geiger, Jacquez Jones, Josh Jones, and Ramon Jefferson are missing. Jacques Jones was our best defensive player and the leader of our defense. JJ Weaver, Jeremy Flax, and Will Levis have already missed SEC games. Injuries are not an excuse for losing. When an SEC roster is constructed, quality depth must be built because injuries are inevitable. But when you look at what has happened in the first half of the season, injuries have to be considered or else the picture and conclusions are incomplete. One thing we know for sure is that Levis has already taken a beating. He is the SEC's most-sacked QB, and he couldn't play at all last week.
Offense
The receivers have been a positive surprise. Many expected Barion Brown and Dane Key to be good, but the absence of Wandale and Ali was expected to be a bigger problem than it has been. The TEs have dropped a couple of passes, but missed blocking assignments have been a bigger issue. Chris Rodriguez missed 4 games, but he is back. The rest of the RB room has performed more or less as expected. Levis' injuries and the underperformance of the OL have been the biggest issues for our offense. It will be weeks before Levis is painfree, and the injury to his nonthrowing hand will make him more vulnerable to fumble. Meanwhile, Levis will continue to take hard hits because our OL isn't getting it done.
Many reasons have been given for the performance problems of the OL. This needs to be said, because I don't know if everyone is aware. At various times, Horsey and Cox have received all conference mention in various forums. Both are playing new positions, but they are good, hard working players. Flax and Burton were 4 star prospects when they signed with UK, and Manning was a 4 star when he signed with Auburn. Backup LT Kiyaunta Godwin was a borderline 5 star. Backups John Young and Deondre Buford were also highly regarded when they signed. They are big and talented. Part of the problem is that some of them have been moved around, and many of them have not had much playing experience. But, given the talent, that does not quite explain the results. Part of the problem has been missed blocking assignments and inopportune illegal procedure penalties. These are coaching and prep issues. So I will just say it. Zach Yenser may have been a reach hire. He was appealing because he is a Kentucky native with NFL coaching experience who knew John Schlarman. So far, Yenser hasn't been able to get his OL ready for the big moments, and it has hurt our team. It is still a small sample. Maybe the good chemistry they need will develop in October. Maybe Chris Rodriguez's return will end up changing this narrative. Maybe things will turn around for the OL in the second half of the season. But if performance doesn't improve, Stoops will be under pressure to make a change at the OL coaching position. The BBW cannot go on like this. If it does, our offense simply cannot be what it has been in prior seasons, and future recruitment of young offensive linemen will not go well. The OL's regression is cancelling a very important selling point for the program. Meanwhile, you have to wonder what Goodwin is thinking.
This brings us around to Rich Scangarello. UK currently ranks #13 in the SEC in total offense and dead last in sacks allowed. This simply cannot continue. There have been some moments, such as the opening double reverse call at Ole Miss, when I thought Scangarello might be in over his head. For the most part, play calling has been better than execution. I don't directly blame Sangarello for the bad play of his OL. Yet, anyway. But he is the OC, and it is ultimately his OL. I don't blame Scangarello for the drops or fumbles, but ultimately it is his offense. Meanwhile, a future NFL QB is taking a real beating and has already missed an important game. At the end of the day, we have offensive talent but we aren't putting points on the board. Scangarello has a multiyear contract, so his leash will be longer than Yenser's. But the offense will have to play better than it has played so far, or else a change could become unavoidable. Stoops' hand could be forced, but Scangarello still has some time to right the ship. The good news is that Levis is feeling better and Rodriguez is hungry. My guess is that Scangarello will be back in 2023, but I am getting more worried by the week about how much this floundering offense will appeal to recruits and potential transfers.
Defense
UK is currently ranked #3 in the SEC in total defense, #4 in opponent 3rd down conversions, and #5 in opponent red zone conversions. This is true despite injuries to Jacques Jones and several other key defensive players. So it is difficult to place much blame on Brad White or point fingers at the defensive coaches. Still, UK is #12 in the SEC in sacks and #11 in fumbles recovered, so there is still some room for some improvement.
Special teams
Recently, Stoops said it himself. In his view, dedicating a coach fully to special teams is difficult because there are so many other coaching responsibilities on the football team. He has been reluctant to hire a specialist for special teams. In some years, Stoops has gotten away with this philosophy. This particular year, it has hurt us. A UK punt has been blocked, and a number of placement kicks have been blown because of bad snaps, blocked kicks, or bad kicks. There have been some blown blocking assignments. These mistakes have been costly for the team and have played major roles in both losses. It has been said before. We need a dedicated special teams coordinator who can turn our special teams into real SEC weapons.
Recruiting
This deserves a thread of its own, which is why we already have threads for our 2023 and 2024 recruiting classes. I can just say that Stoops did a good job getting excellent out of state prospects like Stuart, Anglin, Brown, Porter, Godfrey, and Ramsey committed before the season began. Now he must hold onto them. If he can get Ja'Keem Jackson to flip from FL, that would be great. After all, we beat FL a couple of weeks ago, and Jackson's brother is a member of UK's track team. But I am concerned about the possibility of decommitments. It concerns me that acquiring players out of the transfer portal will be tougher this coming offseason. I am also getting concerned that we could take a couple of hits with outbound transfers unless Stoops can rekindle more juice inside UK's locker room in the next two months. At the end of the day, all of these guys are free agents. But I learned long ago not to underestimate Stoops and Marrow.
Remaining schedule
MS St In Lex
Bye
TN in Knoxville
MO in Columbia
Vandy in Lex
GA in Lex
UL in Lex
On paper, it helps that four of our last six games will be played at Kroger Field. It ought to help us to get a bye week before the trip to Knoxville.
But the dominant problems on our team, the inadequate play of our OL and the health of our QB, will trump the home field advantage unless things get better fast.
We play to win. There is still an opportunity to finish 11-2, and that's what I want to see. Do I expect it? If I say yes, I am not being honest. Besides Stoops himself, a heavy burden rests on Scangarello's and Yenser's shoulders now. Our final six games will depend heavily on rapid improvement of our OL. That is a difficult fix under the circumstances unless Goodwin takes a big step forward.
Another factor is the locker room. Recently, JJ Weaver said that he is not satisfied with the "vibe" on UK's sideline. Weaver explained that some of the less experienced players need mentoring from older players. I take Weaver's comment seriously. The two recent losses have been almost careless. If the mistakes continue like this much longer, it would not be difficult to worry that the coaches could lose the team. That could have ramifications for the second half of the schedule and for the offseason. Surely Stoops understands this and will take necessary measures. As I said, I never underestimate him.
I hope to be wrong, but I do not see UK beating MS St, TN, or GA. I honestly just don't see it. If I say otherwise, I am not being truthful. MS St is a complete team, and we are not. MS St's improved pass rush is a big worry. TN and GA could be the two best teams in the SEC right now, but we will find out soon. I am not trying to bum anyone out. Just calling it the way I see it at the midpoint of the season. I am seeing 7-5, then a tougher time attracting transfers this time. Stoops is a quality coach. He isn't going anywhere, and he will get things fixed. This is far from being his biggest challenge at UK, but it is the biggest challenge he has faced in the last several years. It may take a year or two to reconstruct UK's recruiting juice.
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