This is the million dollar question in Kentucky football recruiting right now. With spring football behind us and fall camp a long way off, it's really the big question in Kentucky football, not just recruiting ... if you believe Williams can be as good as I think he can be.
Regional analyst Chad Simmons is a newcomer to Rivals but you recruitniks know he's far from a newbie to recruiting. The guy is a force in this industry and when he talks, I listen; when he writes, I read; when he gives a take, I take note. So this week Simmons raised plenty of eyebrows in an interview with Jon Hale of the Courier-Journal, when he said the following:
“It could come down to what schools truly pursue and go after trying to flip him from Kentucky. I think Kentucky’s done a great job of consistently staying on him from the first minute they started recruiting and offered him. … I do think there’s interest (LINK: Read the entire story)."
That said, I can tell you that I am still leaning towards saying Williams sticks with Kentucky. That was my bold prediction in a 3-2-1 right in the middle of Williams' trips to these other schools (Alabama, LSU, UF, FSU, Tennessee), and I'm sticking with it. I'll always reserve the right to change my opinion as I get new information or as the winds change, but I think Kentucky still stands better odds of keeping Williams than losing him.
Williams has handled his recruitment very professionally. By that I mean he has been very measured, very deliberate and very conscious of who he is talking to. I know him pretty well, at least as a recruit, and I've met the family. Like all of them a lot - genuinely. They seem like really honest people who are extremely grateful for what's coming their way. That said -- and I would expect nothing less, and would do this myself for me or my son -- they've taken a lot of visits and they have tried to keep that as under the radar as possible. Not because of any nefarious motives, but because, I'm guessing, it would only elicit a negative, unwanted response from fans who are prone to overreactions and obsessive tweeting at recruits. Also because they're humans, and as humans they want their privacy in a big decision.
Even so, they have balanced that desire for privacy with transparency, very well. He doesn't go out there and broadcast that he's taking visits the same way that he broadcasts his new offers, but he has also never lied to me about taking a visit or communication with other schools. Not once. He has always answered honestly and candidly. If things have progressed with another staff in a major way, I wouldn't know about it. Neither would Kentucky. So when Williams says he's "just listening," I believe him wholeheartedly. And I'm generally pretty skeptical.
He is not like Mac Jones. I liked Mac as a young guy, liked him as a player more than some others in Kentucky media, but I will be among the first to tell you that he didn't help his cause with UK fans when he did the "100%" talk, put on the construction gear and the appearance of Drew Barker 2.0, appearing initially cool on Alabama's offer before reversing course and going full throttle with the Tide in the same way he did for Kentucky. I understand how that happens. He's young. Situations are always in flux. He probably meant a lot of what he said when he said it. These decisions are hard.
My point here is Williams has been more measured, more cautious, more careful in his public statements. I give him tons of props for how he's handled this. One day he's going to wow people with the way he gives interviews.
He told me after his trip to Kentucky that he's leaning against camping at other schools this summer. He said that right after his coach at Central Gwinnett, Todd Wofford, told AL.com, "He wants to be 100 percent sure of his decision before his senior season, and he wants to go camp at a couple of places before then" (LINK: Read that story with quotes at AL.com from Wofford on the visit). In that same story the journalist says that Williams had not shut the door on a trip to Alabama for the Tide's spring game (that's this weekend, on Saturday).
To be clear, that was Wofford, not Williams. That was one story following a trip to Alabama. My latest story on Williams has a quote from him that says he's leaning against camping at schools other than Kentucky. That came after the trip to Alabama, which prompted the story with information to the contrary, re: camp plans. It's entirely possible that Williams could have been leaning towards camps at other schools, then after the trip to Kentucky decided he was probably against the idea. Maybe no other school changed his mind, maybe Kentucky showed him enough, maybe he's just tired from all the travel and from the pace of recruiting. It seems, at least right now, that all three are true on some level: No other school has showed him enough to flip him yet, Kentucky has done enough to keep him, and he was sure as heck exhausted when I talked to him.
Just keep this in mind: He has never been dishonest about what he's doing. When he says he's leaning against camps, there's no reason not to believe that. Measured approach or not, he has always been honest about what he's done and what he's doing with me and others. But he has been careful.
The people I have spoken to close to Kentucky believe he sticks, and they are confident (but not overconfident or dismissal of the idea he doesn't). It's not a hollow confidence. They really believe it.
Having said that, I believe that Simmons' opinion is grounded in more than speculation. Without divulging more than I can, I will say this: I have no reason to believe Williams or anyone close to him have told anyone (Simmons or otherwise) he's flipping. But I do know that Simmons' opinion is not isolated. There is at least a well-connected person or two who believes that Williams is more than likely going to end up elsewhere. The opinion is just not shared by anyone close to the situation more from UK's angle who I've talked to.
Let's take a look at the QB situations/QB recruiting situations at the schools most prominently linked to Williams the recruit.
Alabama: True sophomore starter returning in Hurts, who would be a junior Williams' first year, and who probably isn't the kind of guy who would leave three years removed from high school because of size and how his game translates to the NFL. Going to be hard to unseat him his first two years. Then they brought in Tua Tagavailoa and Mac Jones in the 2017 class. The expectation, according to most, is that Tagavailoa stands a good chance to win the position long-term. Trent Dilfer recently said Tua (who I know well from my recruiting history, and love his family) is "probably the most gifted passer I've seen at this age (LINK)."
Florida State: When I spoke to Williams' father at Kentucky's early June camp last year I asked about Florida State and there is no denying this much: At least his dad was very impressed with Fisher. He has visited Florida State multiple times now, and the second trip there is obviously noteworthy. That said, the trip wasn't isolated. It came during a lot of other trips to other schools. I spoke with someone who is connected at Florida State, and at least one staff member up there thought Williams had the potential to be better than Jameis Winston. The better news, and this doesn't just apply to FSU's case, is this: If you talk to insiders connected to other schools (i.e. if I could be so bold as to call myself a recruiting 'insider'), none of them seem to be saying that Williams is leaning towards flipping to their school. I would start to worry if generic chatter turns into, "School X is a big threat."
Florida State will have a sophomore quarterback next season (Deondre Francois). They signed two quarterbacks in the last class as well (Bailey Hockman, James Blackman). However, I don't think FSU's depth chart would be as concerning as Alabama's.
Tennessee: I and others spoke with Williams right after his visit to Tennessee and he came away saying he's still solid to Kentucky, which is what he has said after every visit. I have heard that Tennessee will take one and possibly even two quarterbacks in this class. Their depth chart is less ominous than Alabama's or Florida State's. Take this for what it's worth but I've heard that Adrian Martinez, Cammon Cooper and Michael Penix may all be higher on Tennessee's board, but the person I heard that from could be wrong about that. Martinez is committed to Cal.
Florida: They're making a strong push for Justin Fields, a dual-threat who is committed to Penn State. No reason to believe Fields is close to flipping to Florida, but this is to illustrate that the Gators are making an aggressive push for a(nother) guy(s). Which begs the question, how much of a priority is Williams for them?
LSU: Thursday, LSU offered Joe Milton (NOLA.com). The story reads, "Parkway's Justin Rogers is a big-time target, along with his receiver teammate Terrace Marshall. The Tigers also have offered Bishop Gorman (Las Vegas) QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Kentucky commitment Jarren Williams and Arkansas' Gerry Bohanon." That they would offer someone on Thursday tells me that nothing is imminent with Williams. FWIW, LSU's board is unclear but the LSU publisher with Rivals tells me he thinks they're waiting on Justin Rogers.
Regional analyst Chad Simmons is a newcomer to Rivals but you recruitniks know he's far from a newbie to recruiting. The guy is a force in this industry and when he talks, I listen; when he writes, I read; when he gives a take, I take note. So this week Simmons raised plenty of eyebrows in an interview with Jon Hale of the Courier-Journal, when he said the following:
“It could come down to what schools truly pursue and go after trying to flip him from Kentucky. I think Kentucky’s done a great job of consistently staying on him from the first minute they started recruiting and offered him. … I do think there’s interest (LINK: Read the entire story)."
That said, I can tell you that I am still leaning towards saying Williams sticks with Kentucky. That was my bold prediction in a 3-2-1 right in the middle of Williams' trips to these other schools (Alabama, LSU, UF, FSU, Tennessee), and I'm sticking with it. I'll always reserve the right to change my opinion as I get new information or as the winds change, but I think Kentucky still stands better odds of keeping Williams than losing him.
Williams has handled his recruitment very professionally. By that I mean he has been very measured, very deliberate and very conscious of who he is talking to. I know him pretty well, at least as a recruit, and I've met the family. Like all of them a lot - genuinely. They seem like really honest people who are extremely grateful for what's coming their way. That said -- and I would expect nothing less, and would do this myself for me or my son -- they've taken a lot of visits and they have tried to keep that as under the radar as possible. Not because of any nefarious motives, but because, I'm guessing, it would only elicit a negative, unwanted response from fans who are prone to overreactions and obsessive tweeting at recruits. Also because they're humans, and as humans they want their privacy in a big decision.
Even so, they have balanced that desire for privacy with transparency, very well. He doesn't go out there and broadcast that he's taking visits the same way that he broadcasts his new offers, but he has also never lied to me about taking a visit or communication with other schools. Not once. He has always answered honestly and candidly. If things have progressed with another staff in a major way, I wouldn't know about it. Neither would Kentucky. So when Williams says he's "just listening," I believe him wholeheartedly. And I'm generally pretty skeptical.
He is not like Mac Jones. I liked Mac as a young guy, liked him as a player more than some others in Kentucky media, but I will be among the first to tell you that he didn't help his cause with UK fans when he did the "100%" talk, put on the construction gear and the appearance of Drew Barker 2.0, appearing initially cool on Alabama's offer before reversing course and going full throttle with the Tide in the same way he did for Kentucky. I understand how that happens. He's young. Situations are always in flux. He probably meant a lot of what he said when he said it. These decisions are hard.
My point here is Williams has been more measured, more cautious, more careful in his public statements. I give him tons of props for how he's handled this. One day he's going to wow people with the way he gives interviews.
He told me after his trip to Kentucky that he's leaning against camping at other schools this summer. He said that right after his coach at Central Gwinnett, Todd Wofford, told AL.com, "He wants to be 100 percent sure of his decision before his senior season, and he wants to go camp at a couple of places before then" (LINK: Read that story with quotes at AL.com from Wofford on the visit). In that same story the journalist says that Williams had not shut the door on a trip to Alabama for the Tide's spring game (that's this weekend, on Saturday).
To be clear, that was Wofford, not Williams. That was one story following a trip to Alabama. My latest story on Williams has a quote from him that says he's leaning against camping at schools other than Kentucky. That came after the trip to Alabama, which prompted the story with information to the contrary, re: camp plans. It's entirely possible that Williams could have been leaning towards camps at other schools, then after the trip to Kentucky decided he was probably against the idea. Maybe no other school changed his mind, maybe Kentucky showed him enough, maybe he's just tired from all the travel and from the pace of recruiting. It seems, at least right now, that all three are true on some level: No other school has showed him enough to flip him yet, Kentucky has done enough to keep him, and he was sure as heck exhausted when I talked to him.
Just keep this in mind: He has never been dishonest about what he's doing. When he says he's leaning against camps, there's no reason not to believe that. Measured approach or not, he has always been honest about what he's done and what he's doing with me and others. But he has been careful.
The people I have spoken to close to Kentucky believe he sticks, and they are confident (but not overconfident or dismissal of the idea he doesn't). It's not a hollow confidence. They really believe it.
Having said that, I believe that Simmons' opinion is grounded in more than speculation. Without divulging more than I can, I will say this: I have no reason to believe Williams or anyone close to him have told anyone (Simmons or otherwise) he's flipping. But I do know that Simmons' opinion is not isolated. There is at least a well-connected person or two who believes that Williams is more than likely going to end up elsewhere. The opinion is just not shared by anyone close to the situation more from UK's angle who I've talked to.
Let's take a look at the QB situations/QB recruiting situations at the schools most prominently linked to Williams the recruit.
Alabama: True sophomore starter returning in Hurts, who would be a junior Williams' first year, and who probably isn't the kind of guy who would leave three years removed from high school because of size and how his game translates to the NFL. Going to be hard to unseat him his first two years. Then they brought in Tua Tagavailoa and Mac Jones in the 2017 class. The expectation, according to most, is that Tagavailoa stands a good chance to win the position long-term. Trent Dilfer recently said Tua (who I know well from my recruiting history, and love his family) is "probably the most gifted passer I've seen at this age (LINK)."
Florida State: When I spoke to Williams' father at Kentucky's early June camp last year I asked about Florida State and there is no denying this much: At least his dad was very impressed with Fisher. He has visited Florida State multiple times now, and the second trip there is obviously noteworthy. That said, the trip wasn't isolated. It came during a lot of other trips to other schools. I spoke with someone who is connected at Florida State, and at least one staff member up there thought Williams had the potential to be better than Jameis Winston. The better news, and this doesn't just apply to FSU's case, is this: If you talk to insiders connected to other schools (i.e. if I could be so bold as to call myself a recruiting 'insider'), none of them seem to be saying that Williams is leaning towards flipping to their school. I would start to worry if generic chatter turns into, "School X is a big threat."
Florida State will have a sophomore quarterback next season (Deondre Francois). They signed two quarterbacks in the last class as well (Bailey Hockman, James Blackman). However, I don't think FSU's depth chart would be as concerning as Alabama's.
Tennessee: I and others spoke with Williams right after his visit to Tennessee and he came away saying he's still solid to Kentucky, which is what he has said after every visit. I have heard that Tennessee will take one and possibly even two quarterbacks in this class. Their depth chart is less ominous than Alabama's or Florida State's. Take this for what it's worth but I've heard that Adrian Martinez, Cammon Cooper and Michael Penix may all be higher on Tennessee's board, but the person I heard that from could be wrong about that. Martinez is committed to Cal.
Florida: They're making a strong push for Justin Fields, a dual-threat who is committed to Penn State. No reason to believe Fields is close to flipping to Florida, but this is to illustrate that the Gators are making an aggressive push for a(nother) guy(s). Which begs the question, how much of a priority is Williams for them?
LSU: Thursday, LSU offered Joe Milton (NOLA.com). The story reads, "Parkway's Justin Rogers is a big-time target, along with his receiver teammate Terrace Marshall. The Tigers also have offered Bishop Gorman (Las Vegas) QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Kentucky commitment Jarren Williams and Arkansas' Gerry Bohanon." That they would offer someone on Thursday tells me that nothing is imminent with Williams. FWIW, LSU's board is unclear but the LSU publisher with Rivals tells me he thinks they're waiting on Justin Rogers.
